Audit, BBC, Benford’s Law, Donald Trump, Election Fraud, Joe Biden, Jonathan Adler, President-Elect, Que Sera Sera, Recount, Red Flags, Trust
Since Saturday I’ve heard people in the media refer to “President-Elect Biden”, and I heard “President Biden” in one instance. He is neither, at least not yet. If and when the results of the election are certified in enough states to give Biden 270+ electoral votes, my attitude will be “Que Sera, Sera“. We can then move on to other challenges. But we aren’t there yet. Much remains to be settled in several states, and whether there is a change in the outcome of the presidential election might not be as important as cleaning up the mess that’s become of our election system.
Here’s a little primer on the signs of election fraud from the BBC. Several of those signs appear very much like what we see now. The list of red flags arising from the results of this election is long, and the denials from authorities in charge of the process in various jurisdictions look increasingly suspicious. We have turnout greater than the number of registered voters in several areas, dead voters, out-of-state voters, poll observers who were refused entry or held at impractical distances, late-night suspension of counts resuming after observers departed, ballot arrivals with no chain of custody, a huge number of Biden ballots with no votes for down-ballot candidates and few cases of the same for Trump. If you hadn’t guessed, the down-ballot discrepancy smacks of vote manufacturing. The sheer volume of last day “provisional” ballots is suggestive of ballot harvesting activity. And there are a number of other irregularities. A retired auditor/blogger compiled a nice list of red flags several days ago. This update is even better.)
As Jonathan Turley notes, as Americans we should welcome reviews of close elections. It would be a travesty to ignore these strong indications of fraud. Doing so would disenfranchise millions of voters, destroy confidence in our democratic system, and reward aberrant behavior. And for readers of this blog who might be aghast that we’re unwilling to simply absolve election authorities and other helpers who managed to produce or allow these red flags, the simple fact of the matter is we don’t trust them, and we don’t trust you either!
No, we do not trust authorities who tell us to ignore the kinds of obvious red flags that have arisen in this election. Election fraud has a long history in many of the jurisdictions now in dispute. This is just one form of the corruption endemic to one-party rule in many of these localities. No one is accountable and rules can be broken with the support of the local party machine. These are mini-swamps, and they should be drained.
The media is of course a giant swamp of its own, refusing to acknowledge or report on the very real warning signs of fraud. This is not journalism, and sadly, those who would contemplate violating the code are victims of intimidation. The very act of pronouncing Joe Biden the “President-Elect” at this stage is bad enough as an assertion of power. In addition, we have social media platforms censoring those who would call attention to obvious signs of fraud. This is an authoritarian play. It goes without saying that we do not trust the media, who are doing their best to game these challenges out of existence. Not gonna happen.
And neither do we trust those who would burn our cities, or forgive those who do; who would keep lists of those with whom they disagree and suggest reeducation; who would engage in eliminationist rhetoric; who would unfairly accuse opponents of racism, despite the racism and anti-semitism in their own ranks; who for years years would parrot false claims of Russian collusion, attempting to invalidate the last election; who would ignore the Biden family history of influence peddling and lies! And who would insist that the media’s proclamation of a winner in this election is beyond question. If that’s who you are, you are in the swamp. You’re either naive or evil. No, we don’t trust you.
The recent changes in election rules, ostensibly due to COVID, produced a chaotic situation many foresaw. I view the overwhelming support for these changes on the Left as wholly opportunistic. It created ample opportunities for fraud, and not only in the mini-swamps. Now, the presumed outcome, no matter how likely or how much you might like it, is no excuse for failing to adjudicate very real disputes, investigate or audit irregularities, and recount votes where state law or the courts demand it.
One reservation I have about the claims of fraud has to do with so-called violations of Benford’s Law. It is a “forensic” test of fraud based on statistical theory, but I do not trust the form in which it’s been invoked thus far. Violations have been cited in several counties over the past few days. However, a violation of this law obviously doesn’t constitute direct evidence of fraud, and the test is a reliable indicator only when the number of voters in different precincts vary by order of magnitude (there must be a mix of 10s, 100s, 1,000s, 10,000s). With precinct sizes, that is often not the case. There is a more reliable form of Bedford’s law, but I have not seen its application to any results in this election.
One last point that might be of interest: a reasonable scenario would leave the electoral college tied at 269. This would involve Trump taking NC and AK, while AZ, GA, and WI flip to Trump with MI and PA remaining in Biden’s column. The election would then be decided in the House of Representatives. However, the outcome there is not based on a straight vote. Instead, there is a single vote for each state delegation. As it turns out, Republicans hold the advantage there, despite their minority membership in the House.
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