Tag Archives: Joe Biden

Inflation: The Leftist “Tax the Poor” Policy

23 Thursday Sep 2021

Posted by in Deficits, Inflation, Redistribution

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Recent years have seen explosive growth in federal deficits along with growth rates in the money supply that would have made John Maynard Keynes blush. It’s no coincidence that a new school of thought has developed among certain “monetary economists”. But as someone trained in monetary economics, I wish I could make those quote marks larger. This new school of thought is known as Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), and it asserts that the money spigot is a perfectly legitimate means of financing government spending and, furthermore, that it is not necessarily inflationary. Here is how Scott Sumner and Patrick Horan describe MMT:

“A central idea of MMT is that a government that issues its own fiat currency can pay its bills in that same currency. These governments need not worry about budget deficits when contemplating additional spending. Thus because the US government has a monopoly on money creation, our federal government does not need to raise all its revenue through tax or bond finance. A government with its own currency cannot go bankrupt because it can always issue more currency to cover any budget deficit. … MMT advocates argue that this why the US government can afford expensive programs such as a jobs guarantee and universal healthcare.”

Spend and Print

Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion “social infrastructure” package would be just a start, but that’s likely to be more like $5.5T once the budget gimmicks are stripped out. We can be somewhat hopeful, because that initiative looks increasingly likely to fail in Congress, at least this time around. But the tax side of that bill was already $2.6T short of the latter spending figure, and the tax provisions keep shrinking. Now, it’s looking more like a shortfall of $3.5T would require financing. Moderate Democrats may not support this crazy bill in the end, but Dems from deep blue states want to reinstate state and local tax deductibility, which would cut the tax component still more. Well who cares? Print the money, say the brave MMT advocates.

Sumner gets to the heart of the problem in this piece. Progressives, with false assurance from MMT, want loose monetary policy to make their expansive programs “affordable”. As he explains, if this happens while the economy is near its production potential, inflation is a sure thing. These lessons were learned long ago, but have been conveniently forgotten by the political class (or they simply prefer to ignore them), instead jumping onto the MMT bandwagon.

Inflation Is Taxation

No conscientious observer of government finance should ever forget that inflation is a form of taxation. Assets whose values are either fixed or subject to some inertia are devalued by inflation in terms of purchasing power, or in real terms, as economists put it. Strictly speaking, this is true when inflation is unexpected… if it is expected, then lenders and borrowers can negotiate terms that will compensate for these changes in real value. But when inflation is unexpected, the losses to lenders are offset by gains to borrowers. Of course the federal government is a gigantic borrower, so inflation can represent a confiscation of wealth from the public.

It’s not small potatoes. Currently, about $22T of U.S. Treasury debt is held by the public, and its average maturity is more than 5 years. If the Federal Reserve engineers an unexpected 1% jump in the rate of inflation, it shaves over $1T off the real value of that debt before it’s repaid, and it reduces the real interest cost of that debt as well. Of course, the holders of that debt will suffer an immediate loss if they are forced to sell prior to maturity for any reason, since new buyers will be demanding higher yields to compensate for higher inflation if it is expected to persist.

The Poor Losers

Inflation causes redistributions to take place, especially when it is unexpected inflation. We’ve already discussed lenders and borrowers, but similar considerations apply to anyone entering into fixed price contracts for goods or labor. Here’s what Claudio Bario of the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) has to say about these shifts:

“Inflation shifts income and wealth away from those who are least aware of it, or least able to protect against it. These segments of the population often coincide with lower-income groups, which explains why inflation has often been portrayed as a most regressive form of tax. The ‘inflation tax’ takes its toll through the erosion of the value of financial assets and contracts fixed in nominal terms.”

Inflation is a regressive tax! In this respect, economist Noah Smith echos Bario in a recent op-ed in which he discusses “money illusion”, or the confusion of real and nominal income:

“Workers … who are slow to perceive the rise in prices they pay for goods like cars and groceries, won’t realize this, and will be happy with their unusually large raises. But companies, whose accountants and managers certainly know the true inflation rate, will also be happy, because they know they’re not actually paying more for labor.

That information asymmetry between workers and employers may be exactly what keeps wages from rising faster than inflation. If workers take a year to realize how much prices have gone up, they may be satisfied with the raises they got during the time of high inflation — even if that inflation ultimately turns out to be transitory. By then, it might be too late to negotiate for a real, inflation-adjusted raise.”

Inflation taxes and redistributions become more acute at higher rates of inflation, but any unexpected escalation in the rate of inflation will take a toll on the poor. Bario elaborates on the mechanisms by which inflation inflicts budgetary pain on the those at the lower end of the socioeconomic spectrum.

“As regards wealth distribution, the financial assets that are most vulnerable to inflation are cash and bank accounts – the typical savings vehicles held by the poorest segments of the population. This is mostly because the poorest have access only to limited investment options to protect their savings. …

… wages and pensions – the main sources of income for a large majority of households and even more so for the poorest half of the population – are typically fixed in nominal terms and hence vulnerable to inflation. Indexation mechanisms, such as those adopted in many [advanced economies] in the 1970s, are no panacea: they may fail to keep pace as inflation accelerates; …”

In addition to the inflationary gains reaped by government, it’s clear that inflation gives rise to redistributions between private parties: generally from those with lower incomes and wealth to their employers, producers, financial institutions, and pension payers (businesses, state and local governments). An exception is some low income debtors might benefit if they owe long term obligations at fixed interest rates, but low income individuals are often constrained from obtaining this form of credit.

Causing, Then Exploiting, Inequality

Another especially galling aspect of the Left’s focus on money finance is how its consequences fly in the face of their concerns about income and wealth inequality. Inflation is typically manifested in rising equity prices: nominal stock values tend to escalate in an inflationary environment, protecting their owners from losses to the real value of their investments. Stocks are generally a good inflation hedge. Yet we know that stocks are disproportionately owned by those in the highest strata of the income and wealth distributions. Later, of course, the Left will seek to level the burgeoning inequality wrought by their own policies by “taxing the rich”! Apparently, for the Left, consistency is never considered a virtue. This is not unlike another trick, which is to blame “greedy corporations” for the inflation wrought by Leftist policies.

It’s a great irony that the Left, which purports to support the poor and working people, would propose a form of government finance that is so regressive in its effects. To be generous, perhaps it’s just another case of “progressives” unknowingly hurting the ones they love. The expansive programs they advocate will confer government benefits to many individuals in higher income brackets, not just the poor, but those government alms will help to compensate for higher inflation. But this too takes advantage of money illusion, because those benefits might well buy progressives the loyalty of beneficiaries unable to recognize the ongoing erosion in their standard of living, and who are unwilling to come to grips with their increasing dependency.

But Tut, Tut, They Say

Advocates of MMT, in combination with expansive government, also have a tendency to deny that inflation has ever been a consequence of such policies. As Sumner points out, they have forgotten historical episodes that run contrary to the theory, and most “popular” advocates of MMT fail to recognize the important role played by limits on the economy’s production potential. When money growth outruns the economy’s ability to produce real goods and services, the prices of goods will rise.

CDC Makes a Bum Lead Steer: Alternate Reality vs. The Herd

16 Sunday May 2021

Posted by in Herd Immunity, Pandemic

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Jordan Schachtel enjoyed some schadenfreude last week when he tweeted:

“I am thoroughly enjoying the White House declaring COVID over and seeing the confused cultists having a nervous breakdown and demanding the continuation of COVID Mania.”

It’s quite an exaggeration to say the Biden Administration is “declaring COVID over”, however. They’re backpedaling, and while last week’s CDC announcement on masking is somewhat welcome, it reveals more idiotic thinking about almost everything COVID: the grotesquely excessive application of the precautionary principle (typical of the regulatory mindset) and the mentality of “zero COVID”. And just listen to Joe Biden’s tyrannical bluster following the CDC announcement:

“The rule is now simple: get vaccinated or wear a mask until you do.

The choice is yours.”

Is anyone really listening to this buffoon?Unfortunately, yes. But there’s no federal “rule”, unless your on federal property; it constitutes “guidance” everywhere else. I’m thankful our federalist system still receives a modicum of respect in the whole matter, and some states have chosen their own approaches (“Hooray for Florida”). Meanwhile, the state of the pandemic looks like this, courtesy of Andy Slavitt:

False Assertions

The CDC still operates under the misapprehension that kids need to wear masks, despite mountains of evidence showing children are at negligible risk and tend not to be spreaders. Here’s some evidence shared by Phil Kerpen on the risk to children:

The chart shows the fatality risk by age (deaths per 100,000), and then under the assumption of a 97% reduction in that risk due to vaccination, which is quite conservative. Given that kind of improvement, an unvaccinated 9 year-old child has about the same risk as a fully vaccinated 30 year-old!

The CDC still believes the unvaccinated must wear masks outdoors, but unless you’re packed in a tight crowd, catching the virus outdoors has about the same odds as a piano falling on your head. And the CDC insists that two shots of mRNA vaccine (Pfizer or Moderna) are necessary before going maskless, but only one shot of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, even though J&J’s is less effective than a single mRNA jab!

Other details in the CDC announcement are worthy of ridicule, but for me the most aggravating are the agency’s implicit position that herd immunity can only be achieved through vaccination, and its “guidance” that the unvaccinated should be dealt with coercively, even if they have naturally-acquired immunity from an infection!

Tallying Immunity

Vaccination is only one of several routes to herd immunity, as I’ve noted in the past. For starters, consider that a significant share of the population has a degree of pre-existing immunity brought on by previous exposure to coronaviruses, including the common cold. That doesn’t mean they won’t catch the virus, but it does mean they’re unlikely to suffer severe symptoms or transmit a high viral load to anyone else. Others, while not strictly immune, are nevertheless unlikely to be sickened due to protections afforded by healthy vitamin D levels or because they are not obese. Children, of course, tend to be fairly impervious. Anyone who’s had a bout with the virus and survived is likely to have gained strong and long-lasting immunity, even if they were asymptomatic. And finally, there are those who’ve been vaccinated. All of these groups have little or no susceptibility to the virus for some time to come.

It’s not necessary to vaccinate everyone to achieve herd immunity, nor is it necessary to reach something like an 85% vax rate, as the fumbling Dr. Fauci has claimed. Today, almost 47% of the U.S. population has received at least one dose, or about 155 million adults. Here’s Kerpen’s vax update for May 14.

Another 33 million people have had positive diagnoses and survived, and estimates of seroprevalence would add perhaps another 30 million survivors. Some of those individuals have been vaccinated unnecessarily, however, and to avoid double counting, let’s say a total of 50 million people have survived the virus. Some 35 million children in the U.S. are under age 12. Therefore, even if we ignore pre-existing immunity, there are probably about 240 million effectively immune individuals without counting the remaining non-susceptibles. At the low end, based on a population of 330 million, U.S. immunity is now greater than 70%, and probably closer to 80%. That is more than sufficient for herd immunity, as traditionally understood.

The Herd Immunity Threshold

Here and in the following section I take a slightly deeper dive into herd immunity concepts.

Herd immunity was one of my favorite topics last year. I’m still drawn to it because it’s so misunderstood, even by public health officials with pretensions of expertise in the matter. My claim, about which I’m not alone, is that it’s unnecessary for a large majority of the population to be infected (or vaccinated) to limit the spread of a virus. That’s primarily because there is great variety in individuals’ degree of susceptibility, social connections, aerosol production, and viral load if exposed: call it heterogeneity or diversity if you like. Variation across individuals naturally limits a contagion relative to a homogeneous population.

Less than 1% of those who caught the virus died, while the others recovered and acquired immunity. The remaining subset of individuals most vulnerable to severe illness was thus reduced over time via acquired immunity or death. This is the natural dynamic that causes contagions to slow and ultimately peter out. In technical jargon, the virus reproduction rate “R” falls below a value of one. The point at which that happens is called the “herd immunity threshold” (HIT).

A population with lots of variation in susceptibility will have a lower HIT. Some have estimated a HIT in the U.S. as low as 15% -25%. Ultimately, total exposure will go much higher than the HIT, perhaps well more than doubling exposure, but the contagion recedes once the HIT is reached. So again, it’s unnecessary for anywhere near the full population to be immune to achieve herd immunity.

One wrinkle is that CIVID is now likely to have become endemic. Increased numbers of cases will re-emerge seasonally in still-susceptible individuals. That doesn’t contradict the discussion above regarding the HIT rate: subsequent waves will be quite mild by comparison with the past 14 months. But if the effectiveness of vaccines or acquired immunity wanes over time, or as healthy people age and become unhealthy, re-emergence becomes a greater risk.

Sub-Herd Immunity

A further qualification relates to so-called sub-herds. People are clustered by geographical, social, and cultural circles, so we should think of society not as a singular “herd”, but as a collection of sub-herds having limited cross-connectivity. The following charts are representations of different kinds of human networks, from Nathan D. Grawe’s review of “The Rules of Contagion, by Adam Kucharski:

Sub-herd members tend to have more degrees of separation from individuals in other sub-herds than within their own sub-herd. The most extreme example is the “broken network” (where contagions could not spread across sub-herds), but there are identifiable sub-herds in all of the examples shown above. Less average connectedness across sub-herds implies barriers to transmission and more isolated sub-herd contagions.

We’ve seen isolated spikes in cases in different geographies, and there have been spikes within geographies among sub-herds of individuals sharing commonalities such as race, religious affiliation, industry affiliation, school, or other cultural affiliation. Furthermore, transmission of COVID has been dominated by “super-spreader” events, which tend to occur within sub-herds. In fact, sub-herds are likely to be more homogeneous than the whole of society, and that means their HIT will be higher than we might naively calculate based on higher levels of aggregation.

We have seen local, state, or regional contagions peak and turn down when estimates of total incidence of infections reach the range of 15 – 25%. That appears to have been enough to reach the HIT in those geographically isolated cases. However, if those geographical contagions were also concentrated within social sub-herds, those sub-herds might have experienced much higher than 25% incidence by the time new infections peaked. Again, the HIT for sub-herds is likely to be greater than the aggregate population estimates implied, The upshot is that some sub-herds might have achieved herd immunity last year but others did not, which explains the spikes in new geographic areas and even the recurrence of spikes within geographic areas.

Conclusion

It’s unnecessary for 100% of the population to be vaccinated or to have pre-existing immunity. Likewise, herd immunity does not imply that no one catches the virus or that no one dies from the virus. There will be seasonal waves, though muted by the large immune share of the population. This is not something that government should try to stanch, as that would require the kind of coercion and scare tactics we’ve already seen overplayed during the pandemic. People face risks in almost everything they do, and they usually feel competent to evaluate those risks themselves. That is, until a large segment of the population allows themselves to be infantalized by public health authorities.

It’s Time to Make Woke Corporations Hurt!

12 Wednesday May 2021

Posted by in Corporatism, Social Justice, Virtue Signaling

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

It’s a BLM discount! You need only shout the magic words! Ah, but if “woke” corporations are sincere in their avowals to help end racial injustice, there is so much more they can do! In fact, let me describe an idea so good and rich that we really must partner with Black Lives Matter and Antifa to bring it on!

Yes, we know how much the social justice warriors of corporate America care about diversity, inclusion, and eliminating unconscious bias. Also, in their business practices, they are eager to avoid “disparate impacts” on “protected classes” of individuals. However, if they want to get serious, they need to put real money where their mouths are. The Fuzzy Logic blog (FLB) suggests that we dare corporations celebrating “wokeness” to offer free products and services to people of color (POC)!

There is a strong rationale under current law for a slightly less drastic version of this proposal. For example, in 2019, the median household income of African Americans was about 60% that of whites, but Disney charges blacks and whites the same admission price to their theme parks. That means it costs a black family proportionately more of their income than a white family to spend a day at the park in Orlando. That, my friends, is a disparate impact!

I’m not aware of any legal challenges along these lines, but it’s not as if “one price” is a business necessity, which would otherwise offer Disney a defense against such a claim. Disney already offers discounts to seniors and other groups. But why wait for the EEOC to take action when Disney can demonstrate its high-mindedness and good faith by offering race-based discounts right now?

It would be fun to see how the company reacts to pressure for that kind of action. Based on income disparities, the company could discount tickets by 40% to African Americans and by about 26% for Hispanics. Discounting should be extended to Disney Plus subscriptions as well. Those discounts can be revisited each year with appropriate adjustments until such time as income parity is achieved.

In reality, differential pricing is practiced broadly by American businesses. It’s called price discrimination, and it is generally legal. Higher prices tend to be charged to market segments with less elastic (price-sensitive) demand, and lower prices are offered to segments with more elastic demand. It is a rational and often profit-maximizing approach to pricing, but its practice tends to be more subtle than discriminating on price with respect to race or ethnicity. It’s safe to say that pressure to do so would be disruptive and unwelcome to these firms. So I still like the idea!

But again, FLB’s post goes much farther: given past injustices, why limit the reparations to a correction for the disparate impact of pricing? Something more radical is needed as this is a matter of conscience, not merely a legal hurdle to neutralize income disparities:

“These companies (and the many thousands more engaged in this woke crap) must put their own profits where their big, fat lying mouths are. There will be no government bailouts for them; they must pay for their part in condoning and pushing white supremacy for the past bazillion years, and they must pay with their own wealth, wealth they say they accumulated on the backs of black and brown people.”

Therefore, FLB insists that Disney should offer free admission and streaming on Disney Plus to certain racial and ethnic minorities for a period of several years…and free accommodations at Disney Hotels! What a tremendous show of good faith in wokeness that would be!

We’re picking on Disney, and it’s not alone in its professed racial consciousness and pursuit of equal outcomes. There are so many others! Coca-Cola could issue coupons redeemable at full price through a program of outreach in minority communities. Delta Airlines could institute a program of “Black Life Passports” to bona fide African Americans (meaning one must identify as such!) for discounted or free fares. Bank of America will probably want to exceed the minimum requirements under community banking law by offering free banking services and heavily discounted account management fees to African Americans. Amazon will no doubt want to offer free Prime memberships to certain minorities and perhaps throw in some freebies at Whole Foods as well. And Apple has plenty of merchandise to give away. Why wait for Joe Biden to offer free phones in the run-up to the 2024 election like his old boss did?

You probably won’t be happy about this proposal if you’re a corporate shareholder, but then you should not be happy to have witnessed increasing management preoccupation with social justice, and you should not have been happy as your “agents” lost sight of their fundamental missions as business organizations: to produce something well and thereby do well for customers and shareholders. The sad consequence of “stakeholder capitalism” is that everything a business is supposed to do gets done worse.

I recently discussed the assignment of “scores” to public companies for their focus and performance on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors. These ESG scores are used by “woke” fund managers and advisors to select or rate stocks. I personally have no wish to invest in companies seeking to boost their ESGs, but you can read all about that at the link. For our purposes here, ESGs might serve well as a tool for identifying entities most in need of pressure to offer discounts and freebies to POC.

It would be great to see agitation against the woke-most corporations for race-based discounts and free products. Perhaps a broad discussion of the idea would prompt social justice warriors to get on board. It might provide some laughs, but the real hope is to shake the corporate wokesters from their virtue-signaling stupor. Most shareholders wouldn’t like race-based discounts, of course, and that’s part of the idea. A conceivable defensive maneuver for our “target” entities would be a lobbying effort for government action such as tax-financed reparations. That won’t necessarily be cheap for them or their shareholders, however. Get woke, go broke!

Teachers Unions and Educational Hostage-Taking

14 Sunday Feb 2021

Posted by in Education, Pandemic, Unions

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Intelligent public policy is all too often undermined by policy makers incapable of properly assessing risks. The Biden Administration is setting new standards in this regard with its so-called “return to school” effort. It’s difficult to know how much of it is sheer stupidity and how much is pandering to teachers unions. Equal parts is probably a reasonable approximation.

The public teachers unions have consistently opposed reopening since remote learning began last spring, despite reams of data showing the safety of school environments. Even the CDC agrees! Oh, but wait: the CDC just issued new guidelines for reopening, which among other things require six feet of distancing rather than the three feet Director Rochelle Walensky claimed was adequate just a few months ago. Obviously, this reduces the number of students many existing school buildings can accommodate.

COVID transmission in schools is “extremely rare”. And in addition, remote education is sorely lacking in effectiveness. Teachers who truly care about educating their students should be giving the unions an earful. Not only has learning been compromised, but remote learning has increased the achievement gap between the best students and those in the lower part of the distribution.

Private schools have been open and as the map above shows, public schools in a number of states are largely open to in-person learning. Where that’s not the case, public school buildings are often still being used by children. They’re under the supervision of adults, but not teachers! As Matt Welch says:

“… many of the empty school buildings in largely closed districts are not in fact empty—they are filled with kids, being supervised by adults, just not adults who belong to teachers unions.”

Incidentally, many adults with children now at home, rather than in school, have been forced to leave the labor force, and many of them are women. As Michael Watson asks, why are advocates of working women so silent on this point? And this is to say nothing of the health care workers diverted, during a pandemic, from patient care by the need to manage children at home.

In December, Joe Biden promised to reopen “most” K – 12 schools within his first one-hundred days in office. Shortly after his inauguration, that promise became “most” K – 8 schools. As Welch notes, now the goal has been made a bit more precise, and it’s a complete sham: the Administration wants at least half of schools to be “open” for in-person learning at least one day a week! But we’re already well ahead of that! (And see here.)

On top of that, the federal government is playing the interloper here: reopening is not a federal decision. Ah, but Biden wants $130 billion in federal money earmarked to aid schools in their reopening efforts. Anthony Fauci has decided the stimulus is necessary for schools to reopen, his latest in a series of embarrassing policy flip-flops. The funds targeted at schools would be spent in a variety of ways, including PPE, COVID tests, new ventilation systems, and enhancement of remote learning to accommodate smaller (and distanced) in-person class sizes. Some of the funds are likely to make their way into teacher pay and to shore up pensions. One thing is certain: the unions want that money, and they will come back for more!

The unions also argue that teachers should be prioritized for vaccines, which would place them ahead of groups facing drastically higher risks. This is flat-out callous, insane, and evil. Again, the risk of COVID to teachers and children is low, while the elderly population faces staggeringly higher risks. Vaccinating teachers ahead of the elderly would cost many thousands of lives on balance.

This article from Education Next by Darrell Bradford describes the conditions for reopening demanded by teachers unions as the culmination of several years of activism. The unions contributed mightily to Joe Biden’s election campaign, of course. Their overwrought posture on teacher safety aside, the unions’ obstinance on the question of reopening is intended as leverage in the legislative push for Biden’s school aid package. Here’s Bradford:

“In other words, if you’ve wondered what a national teacher strike might look like and what might cause teachers across the country to arrest local economies and subject millions of students to instruction that may lock in deep learning losses, it’s just like this.”

The schools are safe, remote learning is substandard, and isolation is damaging to children’s’ emotional well being. Union demands for continuing limitations on in-person learning and requirements for reopening are not just unreasonable, but dastardly. That the Biden Administration is crafting its reopening policy and spending initiatives to appease the unions is motivated more by politics than the interests of children and their families. It’s time for parents and other true advocates to let their school administrators, elected representatives, and government officials know that the unions do not have their children’s interests at heart. And well-informed teachers should demand that their union representatives stop playing politics with the educational goals to which they’ve devoted their careers.

Revisiting Excess Mortality

31 Sunday Jan 2021

Posted by in Coronavirus, Pandemic

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , ,

In early December I said that 2020 all-cause mortality in the U.S. would likely be comparable to figures from about 15 years ago. Now, Ben Martin confirms it with the chart below. Over time, declines in U.S. mortality have resulted from progress against disease and fewer violent deaths. COVID led to a jump in 2020, though some of last year’s deaths were attributable to policy responses, as opposed to COVID itself.

Here’s an even longer view of the trend from my post in December (for which 2020 is very incomplete):

As Martin notes sarcastically:

“Surprising, since the US is undergoing a ‘century pandemic‘ – In reality it is an event that’s unique in the last ‘15 years’”

The next chart shows 2020 mortality by month of year relative to the average of the past five years. Clearly, excess deaths have occurred compared to that baseline.

Using the range of deaths by month over the past 20 years (the blue-shaded band in the next chart), the 2020 figures don’t look quite as anomalous.

Finally, Martin shows total excess deaths in 2020 relative to several different baselines. The more recent (and shorter) the baseline time frame, the larger the excess deaths in 2020. Compared to the five-year average, 364,000 excess deaths occurred in 2020. Relative to the past 20 years, however, 150,000 excess deaths occurred last year. While those deaths are tragic, the pandemic looks more benign than when we confine our baseline to the immediate past.

Moreover, a large share of these excess deaths can be attributed to non-COVID causes of death that represent excesses relative to prior years, including drug overdoses, suicide, heart disease, dementia, and other causes. As many as 100,000 of these deaths are directly attributable lockdowns. That means true excess deaths caused by COVID infections were on the order of 50,000 relative to a 20-year baseline.

As infections subside from the fall wave, and as vaccinations continue to ramp up, some policy makers are awakening to the destructive impacts of non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdown measures). The charts above show that this pandemic was never serious enough to justify those measures, and it’s not clear they can ever be justified in a free society. Yet some officials, including President Biden and Anthony Fauci, still labor under the misapprehension that masks mandates, stay-at-home orders, and restaurant closures can be effective or cost-efficient mitigation strategies.

Not My President, Not Your’s Either

24 Thursday Dec 2020

Posted by in Censorship, Election Fraud, Leftism

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , ,

Now why would I say such a thing? Well, 1) the presidential election was rife with fraud, as many of us feared would be the case (and see here); 2) the supposed winner, Joe “The Plagiarist” Biden, is a figurehead, and he will remain in the White House only as long as he toes the line set down by the Left; and 3) the figurehead is badly compromised by Chinese and other foreign influence: Chairman Xi Jinping of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is undoubtedly pleased that such a pliant American president will be taking office.

Those who deny the fraud that took place in the election keep insisting “there’s no evidence!” In fact, there is ample evidence to convince any fair-minded person that massive fraud took place across a number of states (see here, here, here and here). We knew that massive adoption of mail-in ballots was an invitation to fraud. There are many hundreds of affidavits (yes, they constitute evidence) stating that Republican election officials and poll watchers were obstructed in their attempts to observe the counting process on and after Election Day, and worse. There is video evidence of activities coincident with late-night lockouts of Republican poll watchers and outrageous, instant jumps in Biden’s vote totals. There is definitive evidence of process “shortcuts” in several states that led to a large number of unverified ballots. These shortcuts were often taken in contravention of state law. There were failed chains of custody for thousands of ballots across several states. There were dead and out-of-state voters. There were irregularities associated with vote tabulations by Dominion machines. There are hand recounts in a few counties that demonstrate miscounting of ballots. And of course, there was a willful effort to suppress this information by the news media, and outright censorship of this information by social media platforms.

No matter what has or will happen in the courts, state legislatures, or Congress, a large share of the voting public believes there was fraud in this election. In fact, a significant share of democrats believe the election was stolen from President Trump! The fraud goes beyond the electoral process as well. Polls show a substantial number of Biden voters would not have voted for him had they known about the escapades of Hunter Biden and Joe’s role as the family cash cow. The mainstream media and social media platforms also deliberately suppressed the information about Hunter Biden’s pay-for-play scandal prior to the election. And that came after months of avoiding any real scrutiny of Biden’s policy agenda and his fitness as a candidate. Instead, the media asked Joe tough questions about his favorite ice cream.

Not your president? The Hunter Biden saga creates doubt about who Joe Biden is likely to serve as President. To whom is Joe beholden for “taking care” of “the big guy’s” family? How about Hunter’s deals in the Ukraine and Russia? How heavily was the CCP involved in Hunter’s business ventures? How much is Joe compromised by these unfortunate ties? What kind of compromises might it be worth to Joe to avoid further exposure? Should the Biden Administration overlook the plight of the Uhygers? Turn the cheek on Hong Kong? Sacrifice Taiwan? Allow Chinese technology to be embedded in U.S. communications hardware? Cede international rights in the South China Sea? Perhaps Joe will be Chairman Xi’s President. And perhaps others hold cards, such as the hostile Iranian regime. Not our president.

Finally, if you *think* you voted for Joe as president, be aware that he is, even now, a doddering figurehead, a puppet of the Left whose strings might well be clipped when he demonstrates even a hint of incapacity. It might not be long. Perhaps the Left will adopt Hunter’s imbroglio as an excuse to take Joe down. It seems more than a little suspicious that the media, post-election, has finally begun to talk about Hunter’s miscues and Joe’s “possible” involvement.

But even if Joe remains in the Oval Office through a first term, just who will be in charge? Joe? No, he is captive to the interests that helped put him there. We might just as well call him “Any-Way-the-Wind-Blows Joe”. Angela Davis, former VP of the Communist Party USA, said during the primaries that she supported Biden because he:

“… can be most effectively pressured into allowing more space for the evolving anti-racist movement.”

Well, Joe better not compromise with anyone or accept any policy that Angela Davis deems “racist”.

Let’s consider a few influences expected to be paramount in pulling Joe’s strings: Barack Obama, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Julian Castro, and Black Lives Matter. Bernie Sanders will also loom large, and of course Kamala Harris will be there to push the leftist agenda, and she’ll be waiting in the wings when Joe loses his tentative grip on the reins of the progressive machine. Joe better not resist these forces: he can be manipulated, and if he strays from the path, he and his presidency can be cancelled.

If you are a member of the Marxist wing of the coalition, you might have him just where you want him. If you are a member of the CCP, then he might be your president. But he is not the president of the disenfranchised voters whose majority was outstripped by the mailed ballot fraud. And if you are a centrist Democrat, you should awaken to the reality of the hard-left movement with which you’ve joined forces. Do not accept it as a legitimate governing force. No, Joe Biden will not be your president.

As I’ve noted in the past, apologists willing to look past Joe Biden’s domestic and foreign controllers and the fraudulent election are not to be trusted. Indeed, they have been willing to look past Biden’s personal status as a fraud, from his many lies about his family to his admitted plagiarism, to his denial of sexual aggression toward female staffers. In summary, I can’t put it any better than Newt Gingrich does here:

“… I have no interest in legitimizing the father of a son who Chinese Communist Party members boast about buying. Nor do I have any interest in pretending that the current result is legitimate or honorable. It is simply the final stroke of a four-year establishment-media power grab. It has been perpetrated by people who have broken the law, cheated the country of information, and smeared those of us who believe in America over China, history over revisionism, and the liberal ideal of free expression over cancel culture.”

Benford’s Law and Election Fraud Detection

12 Thursday Nov 2020

Posted by in Election Fraud

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Like many others, I strongly suspect widespread ballot fraud in the presidential election, as well as miscounting due to software problems in certain jurisdictions. I therefore fully support the legal challenges and recounts now getting underway. However, there is one indicator of fraud, now widely cited by Republicans, in which I have no confidence as applied. It’s a statistical tool based on Benford’s Law, which can serve as a signal of voter fraud. I mentioned it briefly in my last post. At the risk of getting ahead of myself, here’s what I said then:

“… Benford’s Law … is a “forensic” test of fraud based on statistical theory, but I do not trust the form in which it’s been invoked thus far. Violations have been cited in several counties over the past few days. However, a violation of this law obviously doesn’t constitute direct evidence of fraud, and the test is a reliable indicator only when the number of voters in different precincts vary by orders of magnitude (there must be a mix of [numbers in the] 10s, 100s, 1,000s, 10,000s). With precinct sizes, that is often not the case. There is a more reliable form of Bedford’s law, but I have not seen its application to any results in this election.“

The last link above is to a paper by Walter Mebane of the University of Michigan. I’ll refer to his work below, including some post-election tests he’s conducted.

First Digits

Benford’s Law holds that many collections of numbers encountered in nature or human affairs (populations of ant colonies, accounting data) will have a large proportion of leading digits that are low numbers. For example, the number 1 will tend to appear as the leading digit about 30% of the time; the number 2 will be the leading digit about 18% of the time, while the number 9 will be the leading digit less than 5% of the time. The broader the range of the numbers, the more accurately they will conform to Benford’s Law. As I stated above, a range of numbers covering several orders of magnitude will approximate Benford’s Law fairly well, while a range confined to a single order of magnitude generally won’t conform unless its distribution is extremely skewed toward the low end of the range.

What does that have to do with election fraud? If the number of votes across different voting precincts cover several orders of magnitude (for example, single digits, 10s, 100s, and 1,000s), they should conform to Benford’s Law. The distribution of first digits across precincts should look a lot like the chart above. If they don’t conform, it’s an indication that votes may have been altered or added. That’s because Benford’s Law tends to break down when an independent process leads to additive changes to the original numbers (rather than multiplicative changes, such as population growth).

So again, there have been claims that several cities had presidential voting patterns suggesting violations of Benford’s Law for Joe Biden, but not for Donald Trump and other candidates. These were Milwaukee, WI, Chicago, IL, and Allegheny County, PA. Subsequently I saw similar claims about other cities and counties, such as Fulton County, GA.

The chart below shows the results for Milwaukee. I show only three of the candidates’ distributions of first digits, but the other candidates, who garnered relatively few votes, look much like the one on the far right. The chart shows that Joe Biden’s distribution looks nothing like Benford’s Law would suggest, while Trump’s does. The assertion is that Biden’s pattern is a sign of fraudulent voting.

The problem with these claims is that the size of the precincts and variations in votes across wards might not support the validity of Benford’s Law. I looked at the 327 election wards in the City of Milwaukee, which range in size from just a few voters to several thousand, but most have less than 1,000 voters. The average turnout of registered voters across wards was over 78%, and the average number of ballots cast per ward was 757. Biden received almost 80% of the votes in Milwaukee, or about 595 per ward; Trump received an average of 148.

(I should note that in seven wards there were controversial, post-election upward adjustments in the number of registered voters, where voter turnout had originally been calculated as greater than 100%. Needless to say, that is rather suspicious. However, I disclose now that the data were collected after these adjustments were made.)

What’s important in the application of Benford’s Law is the distribution of votes across wards. Biden’s distribution of votes across wards in Milwaukee was concentrated between 186 and 1,196 (the middle 90% of his distribution of ward votes), and again, centered at 595. For Trump, 90% of his ward vote totals were between 14 and 412. It should be no surprise that a large share of Biden’s vote totals would have leading digits of 4, 5, and 6, while Trump had lower leading digits. So the charts of leading digits for Milwaukee are really artifacts of the narrow distributions of ward votes for these candidates. Broader distributions covering several orders of magnitude would provide first-digit analysis more capable of indicating fraud, if it occurred.

Second Digits

The other Benford-type test of fraud mentioned above is based on the second digit of vote totals, and it is not sensitive to the width of the vote distributions. The typical pattern of second digits is much less pronounced than first digits, but there is still a smooth decline from smaller to larger second digits. I found the two charts below on the Golden Age of Gaia site, of all places. They contrast the frequency of second digits from the Biden and Trump vote totals by precinct for ballots in Allegheny County, PA. The usual pattern of second digits is plotted along the orange line, but whoever prepared these charts mislabelled the horizontal axes (they should run from zero to nine).

Joe Biden’s frequencies are irregular, with significant differences for some values of the second digit. Trump’s pattern is more typical. However, I learned today that Walter Mebane had performed a few second-digit tests on Allegheny County and Milwaukee. He calculates an overall test statistic for the full set of second-digit values and finds the statistics for those counties to be within a certain reasonable range, or at least he felt they could be explained by other factors.

Visually, however, there is a sharp contrast between the Biden and Trump charts. And the data has been in flux, so it’s not clear that the charts correspond to exactly the same data tested by Mebane.

In the end, these tests offer no real guidance in this case. All tests of this kind offer circumstantial evidence, at best, and they are invalid under some circumstances. As Mebane said in his 2006 paper:

“… to prevent election fraud, appropriate practices need to be used while the election is being conducted. Insecure or opaque voting technology or election administration procedures should not be used. The election environment should not foment chaos and confusion. Not only should elections be secure and fair, but everyone should know they are secure and fair.“

Chaos and confusion…. yes, that sounds about like the 2020 election environment. Mebane is obviously aware of the limitations of the statistics in which he specializes. Nevertheless, these tests are broadly used in a variety of applications. Crazy results raise suspicions, but sometimes they are not the best leads in pursuing claims of election fraud. There are plenty of other red flags in the present case. The states now in dispute are close, and most of those votes will be subject to recount anyway.

Ballot Bamboozles, Enablers, and Trust

10 Tuesday Nov 2020

Posted by in Election Fraud

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , ,

Since Saturday I’ve heard people in the media refer to “President-Elect Biden”, and I heard “President Biden” in one instance. He is neither, at least not yet. If and when the results of the election are certified in enough states to give Biden 270+ electoral votes, my attitude will be “Que Sera, Sera“. We can then move on to other challenges. But we aren’t there yet. Much remains to be settled in several states, and whether there is a change in the outcome of the presidential election might not be as important as cleaning up the mess that’s become of our election system.

Here’s a little primer on the signs of election fraud from the BBC. Several of those signs appear very much like what we see now. The list of red flags arising from the results of this election is long, and the denials from authorities in charge of the process in various jurisdictions look increasingly suspicious. We have turnout greater than the number of registered voters in several areas, dead voters, out-of-state voters, poll observers who were refused entry or held at impractical distances, late-night suspension of counts resuming after observers departed, ballot arrivals with no chain of custody, a huge number of Biden ballots with no votes for down-ballot candidates and few cases of the same for Trump. If you hadn’t guessed, the down-ballot discrepancy smacks of vote manufacturing. The sheer volume of last day “provisional” ballots is suggestive of ballot harvesting activity. And there are a number of other irregularities. A retired auditor/blogger compiled a nice list of red flags several days ago. This update is even better.)

As Jonathan Turley notes, as Americans we should welcome reviews of close elections. It would be a travesty to ignore these strong indications of fraud. Doing so would disenfranchise millions of voters, destroy confidence in our democratic system, and reward aberrant behavior. And for readers of this blog who might be aghast that we’re unwilling to simply absolve election authorities and other helpers who managed to produce or allow these red flags, the simple fact of the matter is we don’t trust them, and we don’t trust you either!

No, we do not trust authorities who tell us to ignore the kinds of obvious red flags that have arisen in this election. Election fraud has a long history in many of the jurisdictions now in dispute. This is just one form of the corruption endemic to one-party rule in many of these localities. No one is accountable and rules can be broken with the support of the local party machine. These are mini-swamps, and they should be drained.

The media is of course a giant swamp of its own, refusing to acknowledge or report on the very real warning signs of fraud. This is not journalism, and sadly, those who would contemplate violating the code are victims of intimidation. The very act of pronouncing Joe Biden the “President-Elect” at this stage is bad enough as an assertion of power. In addition, we have social media platforms censoring those who would call attention to obvious signs of fraud. This is an authoritarian play. It goes without saying that we do not trust the media, who are doing their best to game these challenges out of existence. Not gonna happen.

And neither do we trust those who would burn our cities, or forgive those who do; who would keep lists of those with whom they disagree and suggest reeducation; who would engage in eliminationist rhetoric; who would unfairly accuse opponents of racism, despite the racism and anti-semitism in their own ranks; who for years years would parrot false claims of Russian collusion, attempting to invalidate the last election; who would ignore the Biden family history of influence peddling and lies! And who would insist that the media’s proclamation of a winner in this election is beyond question. If that’s who you are, you are in the swamp. You’re either naive or evil. No, we don’t trust you.

The recent changes in election rules, ostensibly due to COVID, produced a chaotic situation many foresaw. I view the overwhelming support for these changes on the Left as wholly opportunistic. It created ample opportunities for fraud, and not only in the mini-swamps. Now, the presumed outcome, no matter how likely or how much you might like it, is no excuse for failing to adjudicate very real disputes, investigate or audit irregularities, and recount votes where state law or the courts demand it.

One reservation I have about the claims of fraud has to do with so-called violations of Benford’s Law. It is a “forensic” test of fraud based on statistical theory, but I do not trust the form in which it’s been invoked thus far. Violations have been cited in several counties over the past few days. However, a violation of this law obviously doesn’t constitute direct evidence of fraud, and the test is a reliable indicator only when the number of voters in different precincts vary by order of magnitude (there must be a mix of 10s, 100s, 1,000s, 10,000s). With precinct sizes, that is often not the case. There is a more reliable form of Bedford’s law, but I have not seen its application to any results in this election.

One last point that might be of interest: a reasonable scenario would leave the electoral college tied at 269. This would involve Trump taking NC and AK, while AZ, GA, and WI flip to Trump with MI and PA remaining in Biden’s column. The election would then be decided in the House of Representatives. However, the outcome there is not based on a straight vote. Instead, there is a single vote for each state delegation. As it turns out, Republicans hold the advantage there, despite their minority membership in the House.

Biden Brainstorm: Nationwide Lockdown, Mask Mandate

01 Sunday Nov 2020

Posted by in Liberty, Pandemic, Tyranny

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , ,

Ah, so Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, one of garbling Joe Biden’s campaign surrogates, says Biden will indeed consider a national lockdown if elected. Oh, fine. And Biden accused Trump of destroying the economy? These dumb-asses must think people have memory spans of about a second.

There are several gigantic problems with foggy Joe’s idea: first, it’s not within a president’s power to impose a nationwide lockdown, as the chorus of experts reminded us last spring when Trump mentioned it. Second, the evidence suggests that lockdowns don’t work to eliminate the virus; they delay its spread at best. Third, as we’ve witnessed, lockdowns themselves have enormous public health consequences, leading to a variety of severe maladies, despondency, and excess non-COVID deaths. That’s simply unacceptable. Finally, the economic damage imposed by lockdowns is horrific and often permanent. We’re talking about destroying the independent livelihoods of people. Permanently! Lockdowns are especially hard on those at the bottom of the economic ladder, who are disproportionately minorities. That’s so obvious, and yet very difficult for elites to gather in.

Here’s another one: today Biden said he would impose a “national mandate” on masks and social distancing on Day One of his presidency. Like lockdowns, evidence is accumulating that masks do not work to contain the virus, and in fact they might be counter-productive (also see here, here, here, and here). Biden’s people will probably also insist on a mandating a government-approved contact-tracing app on your cell phone. Not if I can help it! But don’t get me wrong… I wear a mask in public buildings as an act of voluntary cooperation and to be polite. I also hold out some hope that it will keep the viral load minimal should anything float my way, but whatever lands on the mask might stick with it … and me!

Measures like those Biden contemplates are major assaults on our liberty. And the thing is, if any of it comes to pass, the restrictions might never go away. We’ll be asked to do this every flu season, or perhaps permanently to protect each other from “germs”. This is an authoritarian move, one that we should all resist, even if you’re freaked out by the virus. The best way to resist right now is to vote for Donald Trump.

And please, don’t give me any bullshit about our “responsibility” to lock down, and how mandatory masks are necessary to protect the vulnerable. Is poverty now a “responsibility”? The most highly vulnerable can be protected without masks, and maybe better. Beyond that, people must be free to determine their own level of risk tolerance, just as they have for millennia with respect to a broad spectrum of serious risks, pathogens or otherwise. That’s a dimension of freedom about which no one should be so cavalier.

The Biden Family Influence Racket

31 Saturday Oct 2020

Posted by in Corruption, Politics

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , ,

If you’ve heard the Biden family’s long-time influence peddling racket is “fake news”, and you believe it, you’ve been manipulated. It’s certainly not a new story, in and of itself. There are certain mainstream media outlets that wouldn’t dream of reporting it now that not long ago were calling out the Bidens over this issue. It’s easy to be suspicious, given Hunter Biden’s lucrative association with the scandal-plagued Ukrainian energy firm Burisma. His contract with Burisma was executed around the time his dad Joe, the Vice President at the time, became heavily involved in President Obama’s diplomatic efforts in the Ukraine. Joe actually bragged publicly that he’d threatened to withhold U.S. loan guarantees unless a certain prosecutor was fired, a man who just happened to be investigating Burisma!

Then there were Hunter Biden’s manuevers in China, another country in which father Joe had been assigned as point man for the Obama Administration’s diplomatic efforts. The father and son travelled together, and it was well known that Hunter made a very profitable business deal with a billionaire owner of a Chinese energy firm, one with important connections to the Chinese Communist Part (CCP). Suspicious, to be sure.

But let’s review what’s happened more recently:

  • Earlier this month, the New York Post reported that the owner of a computer repair shop in Delaware came forward with a copy of a hard drive from a laptop. The owner claimed the laptop had been left with him by a besotted Hunter Biden in April 2019. Biden never picked it up, even after a reminder, so ownership of the laptop reverted to the shop. The owner said it contained compromising material on the Bidens.
  • The owner had turned over the laptop to the FBI almost a year ago because he feared that its possession might expose him to danger, given its contents. Apparently, the FBI did not follow up with him. This motivated the shop owner to go public with the help of Rudy Guiliani.
  • As disturbing as that may be, the larger story involves the trove of emails and texts on the laptop between Hunter Biden and his business associates. The messages indicate that Hunter Biden and his uncle, Jim Biden, were involved in a heavy influence peddling operation.
  • The materials offer fairly strong evidence that Joe Biden was a financial beneficiary of the deals cut by Hunter and his team. These are deals that would have compromised Joe Biden in his dealings with foreign nations, and in particular the Ukraine and China.
  • Subsequently, two of Hunter Biden’s business associates confirmed the authenticity of the controversial communications made public. One of them, an investor and ex-naval officer named Tony Bobulinski, was brought in by the Bidens as CEO of their partnership with the Chinese. Bobulinski says he met with Joe Biden twice regarding the Chinese business deal for which Hunter solicited his support, and he calls Joe Biden a liar. Bubolinsky has been interviewed by the FBI and has provided documents to the Senate Homeland Security Committee and the Senate Finance Committee.
  • Until a few days ago, no one in the Biden family, nor the Biden campaign, had denied that the laptop belonged to Hunter. But Joe Biden gave a blunt denial this week, saying of the whole story: “There is no controversy about my son. That’s a hell of a lie! That’s a flat lie because the president has nothing else to run on.” Alright Joe, so this whole thing is politically motivated. You might be right about the timing, but that certainly doesn’t vindicate your family of the corruption evident in these messages and the accounts offered by your son’s associates.
  • Now, there is documented proof of an earlier favor bestowed on the Chinese by Hunter Biden, his associates, and members of the Obama Administration, including Joe Biden. This was in 2011, when a group called the China Entrepreneur Club (CEC) arranged through Hunter’s associates to tour the White House and meet with Joe Biden and other officials. The group included CCP and Chinese government officials as well as influential Chinese businessmen. It also resulted in some lucrative deals for Hunter Biden and his partners. The purpose of the meetings was put thusly by a Hunter Biden contact who helped arrange it, as quoted at the last link: “… CEC’s ‘mandate’ was ‘to let the U.S. know that the Chinese “private sector” [scare quotes in original] is ready and willing to invest in America.’ He thus observed the opportunity to leverage government policy and lucrative business: Cultivating the CEC would be ‘a soft diplomacy play that could be very effective.’” Specific deals for Hunter Biden’s team were also discussed by the partners in connection with the CEC visit.

It’s no surprise that Joe Biden is a liar: his history as a plagiarist is well known. He also falsely claimed the truck driver involved in the accident that killed his first wife was driving drunk. But these recent revelations are pretty damning. As president, any dealings Joe Biden might have with the Chinese would be severely compromised. He sold out his country to build his family’s wealth. It’s also been disturbing to witness the media’s effort to provide cover for the Bidens. This is not the work of journalists; it’s the work of propagandists in the tank for a candidate.