Government “Planning” A High-Density Housing Crash

29 Tuesday Sep 2015

Tags

central planning, Chinese malinvestment, Densification, Detached Housing, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, High-density housing, Housing, Housing inflation, Joel Kotkin, New Geography, Oversupply, Regionalism, Too big to fail, Urban planning

How will the next housing bust play out? Joel Kotkin believes that it will be an unavoidable consequence of “high-density” policies imposed by central planners. That is Kotkin’s major theme in “China’s Planned City Bubble Is About To Pop—And Even You’ll Feel It“, an essay in New Geography.

Central planning generally achieves undesirable results because it is incapable of solving the “knowledge problem”. That is, planners lack the detailed and dynamic information needed to align production with preferences. Freely-operating markets do not face this problem because voluntary trade between individuals establishes prices that balance preferences with resource availability. There are severe frictions in the case of housing that slow the process, but it is almost as if central planners willfully ignore strong signals about preferences, instead promoting measures such as “containment policies” and “regionalism” that restrict choice and inflate home prices. Of course, the technocratic elite think they know what’s good for you!

Kotkin begins by drawing a contrast between policies that led to the last housing crisis and the short-sighted policies now in place that could lead to another:

“If the last real estate collapse was created due to insanely easy lending policies aimed at the middle and working classes, the current one has its roots largely in a regime of cheap money married to policies of planners who believe that they can shape the urban future from above.“

The list of bad government policies precipitating the last housing bust is long, and I have discussed them before here on Sacred Cow Chips. They included federal encouragement of loose lending standards, a strong bias favoring mortgage assets embedded in bank capital standards, the implicit federal guarantee of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac against losses, the mortgage-interest income tax deduction, and an easy-money policy by the Federal Reserve. These all represent market distortions that led to a malinvestment of excess housing. Several of those policies are still in place, and today the presumption of “too-big-too-fail” financial guarantees by the federal government is as strong as ever, so risk is not adequately managed.

But the tale of today’s housing market woes told by Kotkin really begins in China, where the government has been on a high-density housing binge for a number of years:

“As a highpoint in social engineering, a whole new dense city (Kangbashi) has been constructed by the Ordos, Inner Mongolia city government, in the middle of nowhere, growing, but still apparently mainly vacant. … The key here is not so much planning, per se, but planning in a manner that ignores the aspirations of people. Americans no more want to live stacked in boxes in the middle of nowhere than do their Chinese counterparts.“

Kotkin is too generous to central planning, and he is sloppy about the distinction between public and private planning efforts: while China’s current real estate difficulties may be a case of extreme negligence, central government planning always has and always will suffer from a mismatch between preferences and supplies that is strongly resistant to self-correction. Ultimately, resources are wasted. In any case, China’s easy monetary policy and efforts to “densify” led to an inflation of urban housing prices. The situation is unsustainable and the market is now extremely weak.

Can the U.S. “catch China’s cold”, as Kotkin suggests? That’s likely for several reasons. First, as noted by Kotkin, the Chinese government’s efforts to stabilize domestic asset prices and maintain economic growth have led to restrictions on foreign investment, which will undercut asset values in the U.S. (and even more in Australia). More importantly, governments in the U.S. have caught an extreme case of the “planning bug” with the same bias in favor of high density as the Chinese central planners:

“… increasingly, particularly during the Obama years, state planning agencies, notably in California, and the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) have embraced a largely anti-suburban, pro-density agenda.“

Kotkin cites evidence of a strong preference among U.S. households for detached housing, but government authorities prefer to dictate their own vision of residential life:

“… like Soviet planners and their Chinese counterparts, our political elite and the planning apparat seem to care little about preferences, and have sought to limit single-family homes through regulations. This is most evident in California, notably its coastal areas, where house prices and rents have risen to hitherto stratospheric levels.

The losers here include younger middle and working class families. Given the regulatory cost, developers have a strong incentive to build homes predominately for the affluent; the era of the Levittown-style ‘starter home’, which would particularly benefit younger families, is all but defunct. Spurred by the current, highly unequal recovery, these patterns can be seen elsewhere, with a sharp drop in middle income housing affordability while the market shifts towards luxury houses.“

In an interesting aside, Kotkin emphasizes that high-density housing is often more expensive to construct than single-family homes, so it does not advance the cause of affordability, as is often claimed.

The close of Kotkin’s essay summarizes misguided policies now in place and the ominous conditions they have created in some of the nation’s most expensive housing markets:

“Today’s emerging potential bubble is driven in large part by low interest rates and a new post—TARP financial structure, anchored by ultra-low interest rates, which favor wealthy investors…. This, plus planning policies, has accelerated a boom in multi-family construction, much of it directed at high-end consumers. In New York and London, wealthy foreigners as well as the indigenous rich have invested heavily in high-rise apartments, many of which remain empty for much of the year. In San Francisco, for example, roughly half of all new condos are owned by non-residents, including both Chinese investors and Silicon Valley executives. … Since the vast majority of people cannot afford to buy these apartments, even if they want them, this kind of construction does little to address the country’s housing shortage.“

Housing policy has long been dominated by subsidies that encourage over-investment in housing. At the same time, restrictions increasingly limit the development of detached homes, which is what most people prefer. Local control over decisions about housing development is being compromised by intrusive federal policies of “regionalism” that demand more high-density housing in costly areas. These policies are unlikely to benefit low- and middle-income households, who are increasingly unable to afford the high cost of quality urban housing as either renters or buyers. Either prices must adjust downward, as Kotkin suggests, or more subsidies will be required to keep the bubble inflated. Like China, we will be unable to stave off a correction indefinitely.

Francis Pontiff-icates In His Fallible Zone

24 Thursday Sep 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Capitalism, Global Warming, Poverty, Socialism

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Anti-Capitalism, Bono and Capitalism, Cafe Hayek, Don Boudreaux, economic growth, Karl Marx, Matters of Faith, Opiate of the Masses, Papal infallibility, Pope Francis, Raul Castro, Reason.com, Stephanie Slade, World Poverty

Pope Francis dispenses guidance in matters of faith from his heart. In matters of economics and science, his guidance doesn’t come from a well-informed mind. I’ve devoted two posts to Francis’ political follies this year: “Green Hubris: The Flub of Rome“, and “Francis’ Statist Vision Not Shared By Venezuelan Clergy“. While foreswearing ideology in the pulpit, he nevertheless promotes leftist economic ideology and denigrates capitalism, the single-best form of social organization for lifting mankind from privation. He ignores mountains of evidence demonstrating that his hopes for humanity are best served by free markets and liberty. Francis further confuses the issue of church teachings versus personal ideology by claiming that his views are longstanding views of the Church.

A dark theory of the Pope’s anti-capitalist rhetoric occurred to me. It has to do with an ecclesiastical variant on statism: just as statist elites like President Obama seem to prefer widespread dependence on the state, so too does the Pope wish for widespread dependence on the Church for spiritual nourishment. Karl Marx is often quoted as having said “Religion is the opiate of the masses.” However, the full quote is the following:

“Religion is the sigh of the oppressed creature, the heart of a heartless world, and the soul of soulless conditions. It is the opium of the people.“

Perhaps the Pope understands this all too well. An impoverished world may well be a more pious world, and his condemnation of capitalism might help to lead us there. Is such an ulterior motive too Machiavellian to describe the kind-hearted pontiff? Probably. Perhaps the Devil made me think of it!

Like most on the Left, the Pope does the world’s poor no favor by way of blindly accepting the global warmist agenda, which is based on a hypothesis “proven” only in the sense that a certain class of climate models predict a directional outcome. Those models have accumulated a long track record of bad forecasts. Not only that: the surface temperature records reported by U.S. Government agencies and the media as “evidence” of global warming are not supported by satellite records, and trends have been heavily manipulated via downward adjustments to past temperatures. But even if we stipulate that the carbon-forcing models and the surface temperature records are correct, there are major questions regarding the severity of the outcome and whether it poses a two-sided risk to human welfare. Mediation of this hypothetical risk is extremely costly, requiring diversion of vast quantities of resources, and that takes a real human toll. This is why the policy prescriptions of the warmist community lack internal consistency. For example, they wish to restrict power production from fossil fuels in the developing world, forcing populations to deforest and rely on unhealthy wood burning — indoors! — to meet basic needs like heating and cooking.

Here is the full text of a letter from Don Boudreaux to the Washington Post:

“On the opening page of your website today you ask readers to register their agreement or disagreement with this statement of Pope Francis: ‘This is our sin: Exploiting the Earth and not allowing her to give us what she has within her.’

This claim is laughable. History testifies unmistakably that the earth is extremely stingy in volunteering to humans ‘what she has within her.’ Indeed, what the earth has within her are mere raw materials, by themselves useless unless and until human creativity discovers not only how to transform them into actual resources and outputs that improve human well-being (Ever try fueling your jet with crude oil?) but also how to ‘exploit’ the earth so that she releases her materials to us at a reasonable cost.

The Pope is vocal about helping the world’s poor. I believe that he’s sincere. So I sincerely hope that he comes to realize that the greatest sin of all against humanity would be the suppression of those capitalist institutions that have proven to be the only practical means of transforming what the earth has within her into a bounty of goods and services that allows the masses, for the first time in history, to live lives of material abundance and dignity upon her.“

A few of the comments that follow Boudreaux’s post on Cafe Hayek are good, too.

Stephanie Slade has an excellent piece in Reason entitled “If Pope Francis Wants to Help the Poor, He Should Embrace Capitalism“. Here are some samples addressing the power of markets and capitalism to improve human welfare and eradicate poverty:

“Pope Francis thinks free marketeers have been deluded by a ‘myth of unlimited material progress.’ If we have, it’s because we’ve seen for ourselves the wonders that economic development and technological advancement can bring—from modern medicine stopping diseases that were the scourge of civilizations for centuries, to buildings more able to withstand natural disasters than at any time before, to ever-widening access to the air conditioning he wishes us to use less of.“

“‘Entrepreneurial capitalism takes more people out of poverty than aid.’ With those 10 words, spoken to an audience at Georgetown University in 2013, philanthropist rock star Bono demonstrated a keener understanding of economic reality than the leader of global Catholicism.

The U2 frontman clearly has it right—and Pope Francis is wrong to suggest that poverty is growing, or that capitalism, free markets, and globalization are fueling the (non-existent) problem. In just two decades, extreme poverty has been reduced by more than 50 percent. ‘In 1990, almost half of the population in developing regions lived on less than $1.25 a day,’ reads a 2014 report from the United Nations. ‘This rate dropped to 22 per cent by 2010, reducing the number of people living in extreme poverty by 700 million.’

How was this secular miracle achieved? The bulk of the answer is through economic development, as nascent markets began to take hold in large swaths of the world that were until recently desperately poor. A 2013 editorial from The Economist noted that… ‘Most of the credit… must go to capitalism and free trade, for they enable economies to grow—and it was growth, principally, that has eased destitution.’“

As Slade explains, far from a scourge on the environment, capitalism is and has been a great blessing:

“Both the economics and the history are clear: The more prosperous the developing world becomes, the more it too will be able to demand and achieve livable conditions. If your goal is to move the world to concern for the preservation of biodiversity, the answer is economic growth. If you want to increase access to clean water, the solution is to increase global wealth, and the consumer power that comes with it. Studies have shown that deforestation reverses when a country’s annual GDP reaches about $3,000 per capita. While some environmental indicators do get worse during the early stages of industrialization, the widely accepted Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis convincingly argues that they quickly reverse themselves when national income grows beyond a certain threshold. If the pope wants a cleaner world, the best way to get there is by creating a richer world—something Pope Francis’ own policy recommendations will make more difficult.“

A theme in Slade’s essay is that Francis is simply confused. On one level, he seems to know that technological advance is of great benefit to mankind, yet he is extremely wary of economic growth and believes that less production and consumption is better. That would make the job of alleviating conditions for the world’s poor much more challenging, if not impossible! He acknowledges that the environment has improved drastically in some parts of the world, but he seems unaware that the same areas are the most economically developed, and have the most well-developed markets. Like most on the Left, he also seems confused about the real meaning of capitalism. And the Pope “often blurs the line between public and private action.”

Slade concludes with some messages for Catholics. First, the Pope’s opinions on matters of faith are said to be infallible, according to Catholic doctrine. But opinions on topics like capitalism and the environment are outside his sphere of infallibility. Second, Slade is rightly offended by the Pope’s attitude that libertarianism and a belief in the efficacy of free markets is not compatible with Christianity.

Thus far during the Pope’s visit to Cuba and the U.S., he has thrilled the murderous Castro brothers and spoken out in favor of Obama’s climate agenda. Raul Castro is so happy about the Pope’s opinions on capitalism “that he might ‘start praying again’ and rejoin the church“. I truly hope that members of the Catholic flock, or any others, don’t take the Pope’s political exhortations too seriously.

The Insane Substitution Of Regulation For Value

21 Monday Sep 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Big Government, Regulation

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Broadband Investment, Code of Federal Regulation, Compliance Costs, Coyote Blog, Dodd Frank Act, e-Verify, Great Stagnation, Jimmy Carter, L. Gordon Crovitz, Mercatus Center, Net Neutrality, Obamacare penalties, Regulatory Burdens, Regulatory State, Vestigial Regulations, Warren Meyer

My day-job at a financial institution has become increasingly dominated by governance and compliance issues, due largely to the Dodd-Frank Act. Much less of my time these days is dedicated to activities that are of direct value to the business or its customers. It’s not just me, but a large number of talented professionals with whom I work, many having advanced degrees. And a platoon of government regulators with advanced degrees often resides in a conference room on our floor. As I overheard one colleague say the other day, even a sneeze now requires permission from regulators. It feels very much like working for a regulated public utility, or worse yet, a government agency. This is obviously costly for shareholders, customers and taxpayers. If asked, I would be hard-pressed to explain how such massive compliance activity adds value for anyone, except perhaps the regulators themselves, or those who like the job guarantee provided by the situation. Does it offer some extra guarantee of stability for our institution, which remained stable and viable throughout the last financial crisis? Not likely, especially if actually managing the business has anything to do with it. Does it guarantee the stability of the larger financial system to impose massive compliance costs and ossify an otherwise dynamic enterprise?

The financial industry is not the only sector plagued by this phenomenon. At Coyote Blog, Warren Meyer provides a great perspective based on his own experience (and he deserves the inspirational hat-tip for this post). Meyer owns and operates a company that manages public parks. Here is his summary:

“Ten years ago, most of my company’s free capacity was used to pursue growth opportunities and refine operations. Over the last four years or so, all of our free capacity has been spent solely on compliance.“

Meyer offers details of compliance issues that have robbed his business of productive time and energy:

Managing hours of seasonal employees to avoid Obamacare penalties;
Seeking government approval of price increases to recover minimum wage hikes;
Implementing and running e-Verify on new hires;
Additional employee hiring documentation requirements;
Compliance with California regulation of chairs, hot-day practices, meal breaks, overtime assignments, employee sick days, and other processes;

He goes on to note some economy-wide implications of these entanglements:

“… for folks who are scratching their head over recent plateauing of productivity gains and reduced small business origination numbers, you might look in this direction.

By the way, it strikes me that regulatory compliance issues set a minimum size for business viability. You have to be large enough to cover those compliance issues and still make money. What I see happening is that as new compliance issues are layered on, that minimum size rises, like a rising tide slowly drowning companies not large enough to keep their head above water.“

There is no doubt that heavy regulation favors large firms over small firms, and it makes competing with entrenched businesses more difficult for new entrants. Here is the first of a trio of relevant posts from the Mercatus Center, a summary of research finding that regulation reduces new business start-ups and hiring activity.

A heavily regulated economy is likely to suffer from an accumulation of old, irrelevant, or often conflicting rules. A second Mercatus Center post, “‘Regulatory Appendicitis’ and the Dangers of Vestigial Regulations” focuses on an additional problem: the application of old rules to regulate new technologies:

“From a regulatory agency’s perspective, recycling old rules makes sense: Old rules have withstood legal challenges and offer a relatively safe legal route. However, the rules are unlikely to optimally fit the new context for which they are employed. The use of rules that aren’t optimized for the task at hand can significantly hamper innovation and the development of technology. Even worse, due to poor design, they may not actually accomplish the new objective.“

A case in point is the recent imposition of “net neutrality” rules, which prevent ISPs and internet backbone providers from charging incremental rates to network hogs. This involves the application of regulatory rules designed for railroads 130 years ago and applied to the phone system 80 years ago. L. Gordon Crovitz writes of the early, negative impact of this regulation on investment in broadband in a piece entitled “Obamanet Is Hurting Broadband” (if the link fails, Google “wsj Crovitz Obamanet Broadband” and choose the first link returned):

“Today bureaucrats lobbied by special interests determine what is ‘fair’ and ‘reasonable’ on the Internet, including rates, tariffs and business arrangements. The FCC got thousands of requests for new regulations within weeks of the new rules. … Before Obamanet went into effect, economist Hal Singer of the Progressive Policy Institute predicted in The Wall Street Journal that if price and other regulations were introduced, capital investments by ISPs could quickly fall … 5% and 12% a year …. Now Mr. Singer has analyzed the latest data, and his prediction has come true.“

Crovitz correctly states that consumers want more broadband, and broadband growth requires investment. Systematically punishing those who make such investments will not bring improvements in service. And this is not an isolated result. Apart from the absorption of staff time (which is often required to manage new investment), regulation discourages productive capital investment in new facilities, equipment and technology. The potential growth of the economy suffers as a result, including the potential growth of wages.

Several past posts on Sacred Cow Chips have dealt with the heavy costs imposed by regulation, including “Life’s Bleak When Your Goal Is Compliance“, “You Probably Broke The Law Today“, and “There Oughtta NOT Be a Law“.

Is there really a trend toward greater regulation? Yes, and it is not new. Has it accelerated? A third Mercatus Center post demonstrates that the Obama Administration, in terms of new regulatory restrictions, is on a pace to exceed all preceding presidents over the past 40 years. This is based on the Code of Federal Regulation (though Jimmy Carter edged Obama slightly over Obama’s first four years). Obama’s penchant for executive orders shows no sign of abating, and Congress is apparently incapable of over-riding any veto. Much of this can be reversed, in principle, but new regulations have a way of creating political constituencies, so reversals might be easier to say than do.

Bernie Sanders: Just a Regular Looter

17 Thursday Sep 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Free markets, Poverty, Socialism

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Bernie Sanders, Capital-Labor Substitution, Citizens United, Donald Trump, Economic illiteracy, Ed Krayewski, Energy Policy, Feel the Bern, infrastructure, Kevin D. Williamson, Minimum Wage, Police Brutality, Poverty, Racial exclusion, Socialism, Universal Health Care, War on Drugs

Economic illiteracy is getting to be a central theme in the early stages of the 2016 presidential race. The two candidates with whom the public and media are most fascinated at the moment are Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump. Both are veritable case studies in delusional economic reasoning. I have already devoted two posts to Trump, the current frontrunner for the Republican nomination (both posts appear at the link in reverse order). At the time of the second of those posts, I recall hoping desperately that someone or something would rescue my blog from him. I have managed, since then, to resist devoting more attention to his campaign. In this post, I’ll focus on Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, currently the top rival to Hillary Clinton for the Democrat nomination.

It’s ironic that Sanders, a self-proclaimed socialist, shares several areas of acute economic illiteracy with Donald Trump. There is a strong similarity between Sanders and Trump on foreign trade (and both candidates are pro-Second Amendment). Like Trump, Sanders demonstrates no understanding of the reasons for trade, as Kevin Williamson notes:

“The incessant reliance on xenophobic (and largely untrue) tropes holding that the current economic woes of the United States are the result of scheming foreigners, especially the wicked Chinese, “stealing our jobs” and victimizing his class allies…. He describes the normalization of trade relations with China as “catastrophic” — Sanders and Jesse Helms both voted against the Clinton-backed China-trade legislation — and heaps scorn on every other trade-liberalization pact. That economic interactions with foreigners are inherently hurtful and exploitative is central to his view of how the world works.“

Sanders lacks an understanding of trade’s real function: allowing consumers and businesses to freely engage in mutually beneficial exchanges with partners abroad, and vice versa. Trade thereby allows our total consumption and standard of living to expand. It is not based on “beating” your partners, as Sanders imagines. It is cooperative behavior.

Opposition to free trade nearly always boils down to one thing: avoiding competition. That goes for businesses seeking to protect or gain some degree of monopoly power and for unions wishing to keep wages, benefits and work rules elevated above levels that can otherwise be justified by productivity. The result is that consumers pay higher prices, have access to fewer goods and less variety, and have a lower standard of living. It is no accident that trade wars deepened the severity of the Great Depression domestically and globally. But Sanders, like Trump, has failed to learn from the historical record.

Another area of Sanders’ deep economic ignorance is his position on wage controls. He advocates a mandatory $15 federal minimum wage with no recognition of the potential damage of such a change. Kevin Williamson has this to say:

“Prices [and wages] in markets are not arbitrary — they are reflections of how real people actually value certain goods and services in the real world. Arbitrarily changing the dollar numbers attached to those preferences does not change the underlying reality any more than trimming Cleveland off a map of the United States actually makes Cleveland disappear.“

The minimum wage was the subject of a recent post on Sacred Cow Chips. A higher minimum is a favorite policy of well-meaning leftists and social justice warriors, but they fail to address the realities that the least-skilled suffer adverse employment effects, that a higher minimum wage hastens the substitution of capital for unskilled labor, and that the policy often benefits non-primary workers from middle and upper-income households. It’s a lousy way to help the impoverished. Moreover, minimum wages were originally conceived as a tool of racial exclusion and in all likelihood still act that way. Most of the research supporting minimum wage increases focuses on short-run effects or on sectors that are less capital-intensive. Findings about long-run effects are much more negative (see here, too). It’s a given that Sanders understands none of this.

Other elements of Sanders’ platform are essentially freebies for all: universal health care (see the first link from this Bing search), free college tuition for all, and expanded social security benefits. And of course there is a promise to rebuild our crumbling infrastructure, taking full advantage of the myth that our infrastructure is so decrepit that it must be replaced now. All of these ideas are costly, to say the least, and there is nothing adequate in Sanders’ platform to pay for them. He’ll raise taxes on the 1%, he says. Just watch the capital fly away. Ed Krayewski of Reason discusses Sander’s rich promises and the lack of resources to pay for them in “Bernie Sanders, the 18 Trillion Dollar Man“:

“The Wall Street Journal spoke with an economist at the liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, who acknowledged taxes would have to go up for the middle class too to pay for Sanders programs.“

Middle class tax hikes would undoubtedly be accompanied by a lot more public debt, and ultimately inflation. Freebies for whom? As Krayewski says, Sanders “wants taxpayers to ‘feel the Bern’“.

In fairness, Sanders suggests that some of the needed revenue can be diverted from military spending. Possibly, but the military budget has already been reduced significantly, and it is not clear that much fat remains for Sanders to cut. There will certainly be demands for greater military spending given the significant threats we are likely to face from rogue states.

Sanders’ promise to transform our energy system is another one that will come with high costs. What Sanders imagines is a widespread fallacy that green energy can be produced at little cost. However, we know that renewables carry relatively high distributed costs and their contributions to load are intermittent, requiring base load backup from more traditional sources like fossil fuels or nuclear energy. Like President Obama, Sanders would impose new costs on fossil fuels, but the poor will suffer the most without offsetting assistance. And subsidies are also required to incent greater adoption of expensive alternatives like home solar and electric vehicles. Sanders would authorize this massive diversion of resources for the purpose of mitigating a risk based on carbon-forcing climate models with consistent track records of poor accuracy.

If free speech is your hot button, then Sanders’ promise to “overturn” Citizen’s United won’t make you happy. Why should an association of individuals, like a union or a corporation, be denied the right to use pooled resources for the purpose of expressing views that are important to their mission? Sanders is proposing an outright abridgment of liberty. From the first Kevin Williamson link above:

“… criminalizing things is very much on Bernie’s agenda, beginning with the criminalization of political dissent. At every event he swears to introduce a constitutional amendment reversing Supreme Court decisions that affirmed the free-speech protections of people and organizations filming documentaries, organizing Web campaigns, and airing television commercials in the hopes of influencing elections or public attitudes toward public issues.“

It is hard to take issue with Sanders’ call for an end to police brutality without a clear sense of his attitude toward law enforcement. I believe all fair-minded people wish for zero police brutality, but critics often minimize the difficulty of police work. No doubt there are gray areas in the practice of law enforcement; some police officers take their powers too far, which cannot be condoned. If institutional reforms can help, so much the better. But the police must be given the latitude to do a difficult job without fear of unreasonable legal reprisal.

On a related note, Sanders advocates an end to the war on drugs, a reform that I wholeheartedly support. Go you Bernie!

Finally, here is a more general illustration of Bernie Sanders’ backward views on economics. It is a Sanders quote I repeat from the second Kevin Willamson link above:

“You don’t necessarily need a choice of 23 underarm spray deodorants or of 18 different pairs of sneakers when children are hungry in this country. I don’t think the media appreciates the kind of stress that ordinary Americans are working on.“

Sanders’ complaint about the plethora of choices in consumer goods fails to recognize that they reflect real differences in consumer preferences, as well as an economy dynamic enough to provide for those preferences. Far from causing hunger and poverty, that dynamism has lifted standards of living over the years across the entire income distribution, even among the lowest income groups, to levels that would astonish our forebears. And it created the wealth that enables our society to make substantial transfers of resources to low income groups. Unfortunately, those very transfer programs are rife with incentives that encourage continued dependency. Other government interventions such as the minimum wage have diminished opportunities for work for individuals with little experience and skills. Meanwhile, regulation and high business and personal taxes undermine the continued growth and dynamism of the economy that could otherwise lift more families out of dependency. Sanders would do better to study the history of socialism in practice, and to look in his own socialist mirror to identify the reasons for persistently high levels of poverty.

Such a Deal… The Obama Legal Doctrine and Iran

11 Friday Sep 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Middle East

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Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Congressional review, David Rivkin, Frozen Iranian Assets, IAEA, INARA, International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, Iran Nuclear Deal, Justin Amash, Mike Pompeo, Pew Research, Sanctions, Self-Inspection, Side Agreements, The Blaze, Verification

Support among the American public for the Iran nuclear deal has collapsed to just 21%, according to the latest Pew Research poll. But whether you like the deal or not, it appears that the Obama Administration will have acted illegally by failing to present all of the required documents surrounding the deal to Congress before the deadline for a vote. In fact, the deadline itself is not lawful. Those are the points behind a legislative strategy by House Republicans, based on bipartisan legislation signed into law by President Obama on May 22.

The law, The Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015 (INARA), changed the rules under which Congress could ratify a deal negotiated with Iran to rules instead requiring a nullification. Essentially, it allowed Obama to classify the deal as an “executive agreement,” rather than a treaty. Under the Constitution, a treaty requires a 2/3 vote in the Senate for ratification. The INARA establishes a timeline for Congress to consider any deal and requires a negative vote of 2/3 to scuttle it. At the link just above, Representative Mike Pompeo (R-KS) and attorney David Rivkin call this an “exceptional bipartisan congressional accommodation.” Indeed, it was! INARA itself was an enabler of executive power. Now, Obama’s approach to Congressional review of the deal is typical: he is simply ignoring the legal provisions of INARA that he finds inconvenient.

It’s tempting to say the GOP erred badly in supporting the INARA to begin with. However, the legislative strategy explained by Pompeo addresses two key violations of the law. First, it requires the President to submit to Congress all details surrounding the deal, including any “side agreements”, such as the the two described here by Representative Justin Amash:

“These side agreements cover how a primary Iranian military site will be inspected for nuclear activity and how Iran will resolve outstanding issues on possible military dimensions of its nuclear program. Remarkably, it was only through a chance meeting between two members of Congress and the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] that the existence of these secret agreements came to light. The Obama administration apparently preferred to keep Congress in the dark, and even now the administration refuses to provide the side agreements to Congress. Indeed, Secretary of State John Kerry claims that even the president’s negotiating team doesn’t have access to these side agreements.“

Under INARA, the deal should be dead on that basis alone. In addition, INARA states that the 60-day clock for Congressional review does not start ticking until all parts of the agreement (including side deals) have been submitted to Congress. In addition, Obama has no authority to begin lifting sanctions against Iran until the actual review of the entire agreement is complete. From Rep. Pompeo:

“Indeed, since the act also provides for the transmittal of the agreement to Congress between July 10 and Sept. 7, the president’s ability to waive statutory sanctions will remain frozen in perpetuity if Congress does not receive the full agreement Monday [Sept.7].”

So again, the deal should be dead. Unfortunately, today (September 10) in the Senate, Democrats successfully filibustered a resolution against the nuclear deal, so it will not even come to a vote in that chamber. Nevertheless, House Republicans will push on with their own measures:

“Late Thursday [Sept. 10] they agreed on a party-line 245-186 vote to a measure specifying that Obama had not properly submitted all documents related to the accord for Congress’ review, and therefore a 60-day review clock had not really started.

That will be followed Friday by votes on a bill to approve the accord — which is doomed to fail, but Republicans want to force Democrats to go on record in favor of the agreement — and on a measure preventing Obama from lifting congressionally mandated sanctions on Iran.“

In fact, a Congressional lawsuit against the Administration is possible, but the courts move slowly, and removal of sanctions against Iran will begin as early as next week. If a lawsuit goes forward, nothing decisive is likely to happen in the courts until after the 2016 election.

The deal itself has a lot to dislike, starting with the other party to the negotiation. Iran is often described as the largest state sponsor of terrorism in the world. (see here as well.) Yesterday (Sept. 9), in connection with the nuclear deal, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that Israel would no longer exist in 25 years. Would you negotiate with such a malignant counter-party?

Some details of the deal are still a mystery, since provisions of the side deals regarding verification are unknown. If they can be believed, even the Administration does not know all of the details. However, we do know that the deal relies upon the veracity of Iranian self-inspections, which is preposterous. Iran may deny access to “undeclared” nuclear sites by international inspectors. A review process taking up to 24 days may or may not reverse such a denial. Again, the inspections have no teeth. The deal ends embargoes on shipments of conventional arms, which will open the door to more sophisticated weaponry, including certain kinds of ballistic missiles. And the deal also makes over $100 million of frozen assets from oil sales available to Iran, which could be used to fund clients like Hezbollah. What the deal does not include is the release of four Americans currently imprisoned in Iran.

The deal is defended on several grounds, primarily that it is said to be the only way to slow Iran’s development of nuclear weapons. That, of course, is debatable. Verification is iffy, to say the least. The sanctions certainly must slow progress on nuclear development, and tougher sanctions could conceivably do more. And war is not the exclusive alternative, as some supporters have tried to suggest. Will appeasement help to change Iran into a friendly trading partner? Will it make the Iranian theocracy into a real ally? Fat chance! Still, the sanctions carry a humanitarian cost, which is another defense of the deal. Unfortunately, the stakes may be too high to weigh those benefits heavily against the humanitarian disaster that a nuclear Iran and/or a nuclear arms race in the middle east could bring.

Another point of tension in the U.S. is the hard position a number of states are taking on divesting of ownership in companies who do business in Iran. According to The Blaze:

“There’s now a plan to put a defund-Iran measure on the November 2016 ballot in 30 states, all of which already have either laws or policies preventing state tax dollars from going to companies that do business with state sponsors of terrorism.“

However, the Iran agreement contains the following provision:

“If a law at the state or local level in the United States is preventing the implementation of the sanctions lifting as specified in this JCPOA, the United States will take appropriate steps, taking into account all available authorities, with a view to achieving such implementation.“

And what would “all available authorities” entail? Federal lawsuits? Withholding federal funds?

Good or bad, the Iran deal is very likely to be implemented in violation of a law just signed a few months ago by the President. This is yet another example of the cavalier approach to law and to Constitutional authority taken by the Obama Administration. The deal may not survive too long beyond Obama’s term, however.

Central Bank Bubbles Pop On Our Heads

09 Wednesday Sep 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Big Government, Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy

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Asset Bubble, Asset Price Distortion, Boom and bust, capital costs, Capital investment, Easy Money, Jim Grant, Market Manipulation, Martin Feldstein, Quantitative Easing, Ryan McMaken, Seigniorage, Supportive Earnings, Zero Interest Rate Policy, ZIRP

Printing money is a temptation that central banks can’t resist. And they distort prices when they do it. The new “liquidity” finds its way into higher asset values: stocks, bonds, real estate, even art. But as Jim Grant points out (as quoted by Ryan McMaken), the inflated prices are artificial, decoupled from the actual value those assets are capable of generating. The high asset prices are unsustainable:

“The idea is that you put the cart of asset values before the horse of enterprise. By raising up asset values, you mobilize spending by people who have assets… It was otherwise known as trickle-down economics before the enlightenment, then it became something much fancier in economic lingo. But that’s essentially the idea. So what you have seen is an artificial structure of prices worldwide.”

This comports with the general drift one gets from chatting with financial market professionals about the Federal Reserve and other central banks. These advisors usually add a reflexive assurance that corporate earnings are adequate to support stock prices. So which is it? Those very earnings might reflect trading gains on assets held by financial institutions and others, so the “supportive earnings” argument is circular to some degree. That aside, it’s suggestive that the recent market selloff has been centered on tighter monetary conditions:

“‘The risk of global liquidity conditions swinging is real for the markets, justifying a significant reduction in exposure for all asset classes,’ said Didier Saint-Georges, managing director at Carmignac, in a note to clients.“

Likewise, significant rebounds have been attributed, at least in part, to softening expectations that the Fed will move to increase short-term interest rates next week. If asset values are so heavily dependent on a continuation of a zero-interest rate, easy-money policy at this stage of an economic expansion, then it looks like a bubble is waiting to pop. More liquidity might delay the inevitable.

How did we get here? Martin Feldstein describes the policy of “quantitative easing” (QE) in “The Fed’s Stock Price Correction“:

“When the Obama administration’s poorly designed 2009 stimulus legislation failed to produce a strong economic turnaround, then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced that the central bank would pursue an ‘unconventional monetary policy’ by purchasing immense amounts of long-term bonds and promising to hold short-term interest rates near zero for an extended period.

Mr. Bernanke explained that the Fed’s policy was designed to drive down long-term interest rates, inducing portfolio investors to shift from bonds to stocks. This ‘portfolio substitution’ strategy, as he labeled it, would increase share prices, raising household wealth and therefore consumer spending.“

Feldstein does not buy the contention that “earnings are supportive”. Despite his conventional demand-side approach to macroeconomics, he too emphasizes that loose monetary policy has distorted asset prices.

The process is exacerbated by the bloated federal government’s appetite for funds. The Treasury is able to float debt at very low interest rates, thanks to the Fed’s willingness to provide liquidity to the banking system. By that, I mean the Fed’s willingness to buy Treasury bonds and monetize federal deficit spending.

Jim Grant’s argument regarding price distortion goes further. Increases in the prices of financial assets artificially deflate the cost of raising new capital, translating into over-investment in physical assets such as office buildings and machinery. Here’s Grant:

The prices themselves are the cosmetic evidence of underlying difficulty. So if you misprice something, it’s not just the price that’s wrong. It’s the thing itself that has been financed by the price. So you have perhaps too many oil derricks, too many semi-conductor fabs. We have too much of something, which is financed by an excess of credit or debt.“

Thus, the boom feeds the inevitable bust. That is certainly a danger. I’m sympathetic to Grant’s reasoning, but we have not experienced much of a boom in physical capital investment in the U.S., except perhaps for commercial real estate and in capital-intensive oil and gas extraction, and the latter is now on the skids. China, however, has been aggressively over-investing, and that is coming to an end.

While asset values have likely been inflated, it is fair to ask why the Fed’s accommodative policy has not led to a more general inflation in the prices of goods and services. For one thing, the strong dollar has held import prices down. (The international value of the dollar has been buttressed by the view that dollar-denominated assets are relatively safe, despite the risks created by the Fed.) More importantly, aging baby boomers have contributed to relatively strong saving activity (and less spending). Paradoxically, it’s possible that saving has been reinforced by the zero-rate policy of the Fed, as noted before on Sacred Cow Chips. Buying extra comfort in retirement requires greater set-asides if rates are low.

I am not optimistic about the direction of asset values, but I am not adjusting my own investment profile. Market timing is generally a bad strategy, and I will do my best to ride out the market’s ups and downs, even if they are manipulated by the Fed. However, we should all demand more discipline from the federal government and more restraint from the Fed. Better yet, limit the Fed’s discretion in the conduct of monetary policy by relying on a monetary standard that is less prone to manipulation and seigniorage.

Capitalism Is The Bounce In Nature’s Rebound

04 Friday Sep 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Free markets, Human Welfare, Technology

≈ 1 Comment

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Agricultural productivity, CropMobster, Dematerialization, Elon Musk, External costs and benefits, Fish Farms, Food Cowboy, Forest plantations, Global Greening, Hydrogen production, Hyperloop, Jesse H. Ausubel, Luxury public goods, Peak use, Property Rights, Reforestation, Rewilding

What forces account for the great shift toward “rewilding” now taking place in our world? Is it green activism and government action? Not from the looks of the photo above, which shows a giant field of solar panels powering an airport in India. Hailed as a great accomplishment by greens, the view from above provides a clue to the absurdity of absorbing vast resources to replace cheap, traditional power sources with politically-favored solar for just a few buildings. Fry the birds, burn the taxpayers! That’s certainly not rewilding, nor will it get us there. Neither will a cluttered landscape of giant, noisy windmills that slice up avian life, provide only intermittent power, and are left to decay once taxpayer subsidies go away.

Rather, the world is returning to nature via many forms of technology, resource productivity and capitalism. How is that possible? Here is a monograph by Jesse H. Ausubel on “rewilding”, the rebound of nature taking place around the globe. It might make you feel more optimistic about prospects for human prosperity and the joint survival of mankind and planet Earth. There is no question that the changes he describes are primarily driven by powerful private incentives. However, Ausubel’s positions are largely technical, not oriented toward a particular social or economic philosophy. He presents compelling graphical evidence and references to support his technical claims. In what follows, I’ll try to summarize some of the most salient points he makes in the report. Some [bracketed comments] in the bullet points are my own thoughts:

Land once used in agriculture is being returned to nature as “acreage and yield [have] decoupled. Since about 1940 American farmers have quintupled corn while using the same or even less land.” The same is true in other parts of the world. “The great reversal of land use that I am describing is not only a forecast, it is a present reality in Russia and Poland as well as Pennsylvania and Michigan.” Moreover, there is no cap in sight for farm yields. He credits “precision agriculture, in which we use more bits, not more kilowatts or gallons.“
Even more impressive is the fact that “rising yields have not required more tons of fertilizer or other inputs. The inputs to agriculture have plateaued and then fallen, not just cropland but nitrogen, phosphates, potash, and even water.“
A tremendous quantity of food is wasted, but Ausubel cites new web-enabled initiatives such as Food Cowboy and CropMobster that hold great promise in rerouting wasted surplus to areas of need. “The 800 million or so hungry humans worldwide are not hungry because of inadequate production.” [Well, production might be inadequate in their vicinity. And “waste” is relative, so to speak. It is typically uneconomic to avoid all wastage, and social pockets of hunger exist for many reasons unrelated to the operation of markets in food. But improvements in technology can make it feasible to reduce wastage at little cost.]
“If we keep lifting average yields toward the demonstrated levels …, stop feeding corn to cars [corn ethanol – another activity subsidized by government], restrain our diets lightly, and reduce waste, then an area the size of India or the USA east of the Mississippi could be released globally from agriculture over the next 50 years or so.“
Land released from agriculture contributes to reforestation, a process that is underway in a number of countries. “In the USA, the forest transition began around 1900, when states such as Connecticut had almost no forest, and now encompasses dozens of states. The thick green cover of New England, Pennsylvania, and New York today would be unrecognizable to Teddy Roosevelt, who knew them as wheat fields, pastures mown by sheep, and hillsides denuded by logging.“
Our demand for forest products is in decline, which also contributes to reforestation. Forest plantations (accounting for about 1/3 of wood production) are much more productive than harvesting wood from natural forests. Land devoted to wood plantations can displace the harvesting of a much larger area of natural forest.
Carbon dioxide (as well as nitrogen) is adding to “global greening“, which according to Ausubel is “the most important ecological trend on Earth today. The biosphere on land is getting bigger, year by year, by 2 billion tons or even more.” [Importantly, this greening provides an important offset to any tendency for human greenhouse gas emissions to warm the environment.]
“Dematerialization”: After the 1970s “…a surprising thing happened, even as our population kept growing. The intensity of use of the resources began to fall. For each new dollar in the economy, we used less copper and steel than we had used before.” Ausubel and some colleagues studied the use of 100 commodities in the U.S. over time. “… we found that 36 have peaked in absolute use; … Good riddance to asbestos and cadmium. … 53 commodities we consider poised to fall. These include not only cropland and nitrogen, … but even electricity and water…. Only 11 of the 100 commodities are still growing in both relative and absolute use in America.“
Ausubel shows that certain emissions in the U.S. have decreased in relative terms, and sometimes in absolute terms. [The latter were mostly induced by public demands for pollution control regulation, but relative declines also reflect the ability of the private economy to generate growth. However, the value of certain regulations is questionable from both a public finance and a public health perspective.]
He is very high on maglev technology and especially the “hyperloop”, Elon Musk’s proposed tube for high-speed maglev travel between LA and San Francisco. [I do not share his enthusiasm for some of the reasons discussed in “High-Speed Third Rail For Taxpayers“. Large-scale, publicly-subsidized infrastructure projects often fail in terms of costs vs. benefits. However, the economics of the hyperloop might prove more compelling.]
Fertility has been in decline throughout the world for decades. Slower population growth obviously complements technological advance in providing for material human welfare.
Oceans and aquatic life are an area of real concern, in Ausubel’s view. “Fish biomass in intensively exploited fisheries appears to be about one-tenth the level of the fish in those seas a few decades or hundred [of] years ago.” [This is a classic tragedy of the commons in which no property rights are defined until the catch is in.] Fish farming is a promising alternative that can reduce the strain on wild fish populations.
A final section on potential changes in the human diet is provocative. Ausubel discusses the promise of hydrogen supplies in creating proteins for our diet. “A single spherical fermenter of 100 yards diameter could produce the primary food for the 30 million inhabitants of Mexico City. The foods would, of course, be formatted before arriving at the consumer. Grimacing gourmets should observe that our most sophisticated foods, such as cheese and wine, are the product of sophisticated elaboration by microorganisms of simple feedstocks such as milk and grape juice. … Globally, such a food system would allow humanity to release 90 percent of the land and sea now exploited for food.“

In concluding his monograph, Ausubel addresses whether his optimism is misplaced, having focused so much on positive trends in the developed world and relatively little on less developed countries. Here is his response:

“My view is that the patterns described are not exceptional to the US and that within a few decades, the same patterns, already evident in Europe and Japan, will be evident in many more places.“

None of this is to deny the existence of external costs and benefits to the natural environment, which private parties might ignore in cases of ill-defined property rights or difficulties in litigating damages. Regulation may be a reasonable alternative for internalizing obvious external costs and benefits, but even then, markets can play a valuable role in fashioning the most efficient regulatory approach. In fact, with advances in environmental consciousness, private parties often find it in their best interest to internalize obvious external costs.

Having achieved a sufficient level of prosperity, a society may decide to convert some of the gains into public benefits through various forms of regulation or other public initiatives. In essence, these may be characterized as “luxury public goods”. The danger lies in the mistakes government often makes in the imposition of costly measures, and in allowing excessive taxes and regulation to subvert the very market processes giving rise to prosperity. This is particularly dangerous to welfare and growth in the underdeveloped world, as illustrated by opposition from environmentalists to efficient fossil fuels. That leaves the poor no alternative but to continue to burn wood indoors for heating and cooking.

It’s worth emphasizing that the nature rebound already taking place in the developed world is largely a product of free market capitalism and the growth in wealth and technology they have made possible. A great benefit of secure property rights for society, and for the environment, is that owners have powerful incentives to husband their resources. Likewise, the profit motive gives producers strong incentives to reduce waste and improve productivity. As economic development becomes more widespread, these incentives are promoting a healthier balance between man and nature. Greenies: capitalism can be your friend!

Prospective Professionals Don’t Snub Minimum Wage Waivers

01 Tuesday Sep 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Free markets

≈ 1 Comment

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Antony Davies, Automation, Bryan Caplan, Department of Labor, Food Service Robots, McDonald's wages, Mercatus Center, Minimum Wage, Union Wage Exemptions, Unpaid internships, Vocational training, Wage floor, Walmart wages, Wendy's wages

Are unpaid internships of any benefit to the student/intern? If not, then why do you suppose several hundred thousand smart students accept them each year? And there are many more internships for which the pay is nominal. Clearly these students have something to gain, though some would still argue that interns are exploited. They would like to be paid, of course, but they are sufficiently forward-thinking to recognize opportunities, even if they are unpaid gigs.

What’s really silly is the Department of Labor’s “tests” for whether an unpaid internship can be offered. In truth, it would be impossible to meet the DOL’s requirements, but that doesn’t seem to matter. Bryan Caplan is on very safe ground in arguing that “Every Unpaid Internship Is Illegal“. Apparently the rules are just for show, though again, some would like to see the practice ended. But here is the truth from Caplan:

“Internships are vocational education. If schools can educate students in exchange for their tuition, why can’t businesses educate students in exchange for their labor? No reason, just anti-market bigotry.“

Caplan’s description of the transaction is apt. From the firm’s point of view, bringing an intern into the office has disadvantages. With some introduction, the intern can perform various low-level tasks, but they absorb the time of paid staff because some degree of oversight is required. And there is some risk: an intern might prove capable of performing fairly complex tasks, but some don’t work out at all. The hope is that they can make a minor contribution to the work effort, add to the firm’s recruiting pipeline, and perhaps strengthen the firm’s ties to the student’s learning institution. In exchange, the intern gains valuable experience in an actual business environment and walks away with a stronger resume and some contacts. A mutually beneficial trade.

For the sake of intellectual consistency, proponents of the minimum wage should oppose unpaid or low-paying internships. The situations differ only in terms of the typical job description and its educational requirements. In both instances, opposition to the voluntary exchange of labor for training and experience would foreclose opportunities of which many are happy to avail themselves. The worst of it is that the minimum wage itself inflicts its damage on the least skilled, who need opportunities the most. This is harmful and foolish intervention, however well-intentioned.

The harm is vividly illustrated by responses to President Obama’s proposal to raise the minimum wage to $10.10 an hour from $7.25, and to various moves on the part of state and local governments to raise the minimum wage within their jurisdictions. The end-game will be higher prices, more automation, lower employment and reduced hours among low-skilled workers (and those with less work experience). This article about Wendy’s is pertinent. It also notes that McDonald’s is planning to automate. Apparently Walmart is cutting hours after responding to pressure to increase wages.

The jury is out on the damage from changes in the minimum wage in cities like Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles. Initial signs have indicated some negative employment effects, but the data is noisy and reported at a higher level of aggregation. Regardless, the least skilled will suffer negative consequences. Interestingly, unions backed the increases but have found ways to gain exemptions for their own contracts.

One of the most absurd assertions about wage floors comes from the DOL itself:

“…the DOL cites numerous studies to support its claim that higher wages are associated with higher levels of worker productivity, but the agency gets the causality reversed, among other errors of interpretation.“

The correct rationale for the DOL’s claim is with reference to the productivity of remaining workers near the margin, since less productive workers will have been canned. Too bad! The last link, from Antony Davies of the Mercatus Center, shows the positive relationship between unemployment and the minimum wage for less educated workers. Of course, this does not capture the negative effect on hours worked for those who remain employed following an increase in the wage floor.

Prohibition of unpaid internships would undoubtedly reduce the total number of internships offered to motivated students and others seeking vocational experience and training. The losers are prospective entrants to the knowledge work force who gain valuable experience and credibility as future job candidates by virtue of unpaid or low-paid gigs. But the consequences to would-be interns might not compare to the impact of lost training and experience already suffered by society’s least skilled as a consequence of the minimum wage. They are rendered unemployable by the state, and their alternatives are often limited to dependency or illegal activity.