Tags
Blue Wave, Candace Owens, Color Revolution, Corruption, Data Centers, Don Boudreaux, Donald Trump, Down-Ballot Measures, Electoral College, Groypers, Inflation, Interstate Compact, Iran War, Israel, JD Vance, Matt Walsh, Midterm Elections, Nick Fuentes, Redistricting, Theo Jaffee, Tucker Carlson, Veto Power

I’m very late with this, but …. Hoo boy! After almost two weeks, I’m still marveling at the sheer stupidity of voters who helped elect socialists and socialist-adjacent candidates, not to mention a load of Jew-baiting and hate-filled antisemites. To say I’m disappointed by the results of the midterm election is an understatement. However, there are a few exceptions and qualifications, which I’ll get to.
The first few sections below cover diagnostics of the midterm results. Then follow a few sections on ramifications. Finally, a last section offers a few glimmers of hope.
Plenty of Blame For Trump
I should not have been surprised that the “blue wave” materialized, but my skepticism of polls led me to expect something less dramatic. In any case, it turns out it wasn’t so much a blue wave as a red backwash from the 2024 crest. Disaffected Trump voters made a big difference in this election, for reasons to which I’ve devoted many gripes on this blog. Perhaps more importantly, lots of other 2024 Trump voters were simply unmotivated by his record, as the chart at the top suggests.
Here are a few excerpts from a post on the loss by the estimable Don Boudreaux:
“Far from saving Americans from socialism and the whackadoodle, economically illiterate left, Trump has fueled their ascent to power – an ascent so quick and full that it was unimaginable just two years ago. Trump achieved this remarkable, horrible outcome not by doggedly promoting free markets and constitutionally limited government but, instead, in part by revealing repeatedly to the American people that he has no use for such principles – or, indeed, for any principles at all. …
“If America fifty years from now is as economically moribund as is today’s Europe – not an unthinkable prospect – with property rights held in contempt and bureaucrats intruding into every aspect of Americans’ lives and the Constitution a dead letter, a chief spark for this terrible fate will have been Trump. Fortunately for me, I’ll not be around to witness this calamity.
“But, hey, despite the collectivism enabled by Trump – and in no small part practiced by him – Americans in 2076 will have a gargantuan arch at which to gaze. So there’s that.”
Trump’s populist instincts have certainly led him astray, with the aid of an anti-capitalist Vice President at his ear. This Administration has done nothing to arrest expanding federal deficits, with seemingly no inkling that those deficits might just contribute to inflation and higher interest rates. Trump instituted distortionary tariffs cripple important sectors of the economy, and he has merrily embarked on a corporatist shopping spree for private assets using federal dollars. He’s also instigated several distortionary changes to the income tax code via the Big Beautiful Bill, and he failed to prosecute the Iran war with the promised speed and decisiveness. With all of these flubs, Trump alienated many of his own voters.
Interestingly, it seems that redistricting actually hurt Republicans, who pushed for it aggressively in “red” states with Trump’s help. It backfired by thinning GOP majorities so much in “safe” districts as to make them not safe at all.
The Woke Right
Trump also got on the wrong side of former allies who now populate the so-called “woke right”. (That was just as well in my book.) These included several pals of Vance, like Tucker Carlson and Matt Walsh, as well as other antisemites such as Candace Owens and Nick Fuentes. These personalities have inflamed sentiment against Israel, and almost inexplicably for Iran and Russia, especially among younger males. Not coincidentally, just after the election, Vance jumped at the opportunity to cast shade at the effort to neutralize the Iran nuclear threat. Here’s a brutal verdict on Vance’s post-election “analysis”. This related piece on the woke right “groypers” and Vance is interesting as well.
From the Mouths of Voters
Various post-election surveys indicate that economic matters like inflation and high interest rates, along with corruption in government, were the chief reasons for the swing toward Democrats. The war with Iran was important, but may not have been as critical in itself, though it obviously led to higher gas prices. Voters were probably aggravated by Trump’s preoccupation with matters of little significance, such as the reflecting pool, the ballroom, the Kennedy Center brouhaha, and the D.C. Triumphal Arch. Even worse, private contributions to those projects contributed to allegations of corruption.
Ever-Present Fraud
Did election fraud play any part in the election? There is always fraud, of course, but it’s not clear how much it mattered this time. There are plenty of sources of fraud, including mail-in ballots, drop boxes, states not requiring voter identification, and especially noncitizen registrations. This is to say nothing of shenanigans in vote counting in jurisdictions where a single party has a near-monopoly. Until and unless rules are promulgated to ensure election integrity, the fraud will continue. Still, the Democrat vote margin could have been overcome with a greater GOP turnout and less alienation of swing voters.
Now What?
So what’s to follow? In all likelihood, the next congressional session will be wasted by Democrats, at least from a broader perspective (if not their own). That thought is of some consolation to me. First, there will be a lot infighting among party factions. Cue the circular firing squad. That will provide great entertainment, though it could get ominous if moderates are intimidated by the hard-left crazies.
Second, Trump will veto almost any legislation that gets through the next Congress, unless he decides to make concessions on critical issues (e.g. some sort of amnesty deal for illegals has been floated). However, even with failed legislation, Democrats can propose legislation for the sole purpose of keeping the heat on critical issues as the 2028 campaign approaches, like taxpayer-funded national health care (“Medicare for all”) and a national minimum wage hike. Both are disastrous proposals, of course, but they have populist appeal. Minimum wages will almost certainly be hiked in states with Democrat governors and legislative majorities, unless reason somehow prevails.
Finally, Democrats are likely to fritter away their sessions investigating the circumstances of every sneeze this administration has failed to suppress. In response those threats, the White House has ordered the Justice Department to investigate Democrats who “cross the line” into criminal abuse of an investigative or legislative process, but criminal charges would be pretty difficult to make stick. Of course, Democrats will also be busy persecuting private business interests. State-level prosecution of Administration officials is also a possibility, which would end-run Trump’s pardon power.
Don’t get me wrong. If administration officials can be proven to have been on the take, or took orders from private interests, then they should be exposed and ultimately convicted. However, given the Democrats’ history of unhinged lawfare, unreasonable and fabricated charges are pretty sure to be made. In all this, I expect Democrats to demonstrate a complete lack of self-awareness regarding their own hypocrisy. It will be an obnoxious spectacle.
Another Dangerous Prospect
The midterm increased the vulnerability of the Electoral College to nullification by 2028. An interstate compact to which 18 states have agreed would already control a total of 222 electoral votes if activated. It would need just a few more states to become effective at 270+ electoral votes. Then the compact states would throw all of their electors to the winner of the national popular vote. The midterm results make this much more likely, despite the risk that these states would, in the future, end up supporting candidates who fail to win in-state votes. The Electoral College is stipulated in the Constitution, so the compact would surely be challenged in court. Both sides in this potential dispute claim to be on sound constitutional footing, but nothing can be taken for granted.
Baring Teeth and True Colors
Since the election, many Democrats have doubled down on their vitriole toward Republicans and business people, not to mention their moronic policy and constitutional reform ideas. The aggressive threats of investigations, constitutional upheaval, reeducation, jail, and even violent retribution might intimidate or even goad extremists into violent actions or perhaps even violent conflict with opponents. The chances might be remote, but the subject comes up frequently enough. In fact, threat levels against prominent business people and Trump officials have escalated dramatically. The left has fashioned what some call a permission structure that accepts threats of violence and actual violence as valid expressions of political disagreement. This obviously creates a danger of unrest. It also infects our judicial system via the character of litigation, jury pools, verdicts, and sentences. And it infects our educational system and our children.
With an outbreak of violence, any attempt by the Administration to restore order could bring forth the ominous possibility of a so-called color revolution, of which some have warned. This is exactly what radical leftists hope for, but they shouldn’t be too confident about their ability to pull it off. If moderate Democrats could only manage to restrain their leftist comrades, a very ugly possibility could be avoided (I was pleasantly surprised by the James Talarico quote at that last link).
For their part, Republicans seem to have formed their own circular firing squad. This piece describes the primary factions. However, if it wasn’t already clear, Vance has become a favorite target. Again, he managed to link himself with members of the loony right commentariat, such as Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly. He also seemed to throw his boss Trump under the bus, placing exclusive blame for the election loss on the war with Iran. In fact, Vance was instrumental in dragging out hopeless negotiations with the intransigent Iranian leadership. Furthermore, Vance is a domestic interventionist and a poor fit to lead the supposed party of small government. Meanwhile, Trump isn’t making any commitments as to who he might back in 2028, but for now he’s ended Vance’s role in foreign relations and in dealing with Iran.
Some Better News
One huge consolation is that so many down-ballot measures across the states went in favor of conservative principles. These are mostly tax limits, as well as some voter ID and voter citizenship measures. This is just a sampling:
—Wealth tax defeated in California;
—Greater legislative hurdles for new taxes or higher tax rates in Iowa;
—Capped income tax rates in North Carolina, along with limits to growth in property tax collections;
—Ban on any state property tax in Tennessee;
—Greater homestead exemption and limits on assessment increases in Florida;
—The right to keep and bear arms is now enshrined as a natural right in Arkansas;
—An amendment in Alabama requires public schools to allow student-led prayer and requires students to recite the pledge of allegiance daily;
—A ban on the granting of preferences or discriminating based on race or sex in Wisconsin state government programs;
—An amendment declaring English as the official language in Idaho;
—Voters also approved measures to limit voting to U.S. citizens in Alaska, Arkansas, Kansas, South Dakota, and West Virginia, and voter-ID measures in Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Oklahoma.
A big exception to the spate of conservative and/or limited government initiatives was the rejection of data centers. In the end, this might not matter greatly because data centers will be built somewhere in the U.S. if there is sufficient demand for compute. Moreover, data centers in space are coming, and they are unlikely to arouse the kind of NIMBYist self-harm that comes with an unwillingness to negotiate for large local benefits.
For more reading, here’s a very good summary of the midterm results and implications of the election from Theo Jaffee. His 16 takeaways are level-headed and align closely with my own feelings, except I’m probably more worried than he is about our direction as a nation.









