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In Praise of Refugee Aid and Precautions

23 Monday Nov 2015

Posted by pnoetx in Immigration, Terrorism

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Davis Bier, Director of National Intelligence, Foundation for Economic Education, Glenn Reynolds, Homeland Security, Ian Tuttle, ISIS, James Comey, National Counterterrorism Center, National Security, National Sovereignty, Open Borders, Paris Attacks, Pew Research, Private Refugee Sponsorship, Refugee Vetting Process, Syrian refugees, Terrorism, Virtue Signalling

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Libertarians differ from conservatives on the Syrian refugee issue and on immigration policy in general. I’m in favor of liberalized immigration because it confers powerful economic advantages. That does not imply, however, a willingness to sacrifice border security and control over the flow of immigrants. Border security is critical to the notion of U.S. sovereignty, and though I am loath to do so, I will credit Donald Trump for asking two pertinent questions: “Do we have a country? Or do we not have a country?” This is all the more important in an age when terror on the scale of a 9/11, Paris, or terrorist use of WMDs is a threat.

One of the few legitimate functions of government is national security, and the U.S. Constitution sought to assure that security would be provided without compromising the liberties of individual citizens. I’d like outsiders to feel welcome to join us and partake of those liberties, but only subject to precautions related to security. Given current threats, it is reasonable to insist on deliberation and caution in admitting new immigrants and refugees. That should include a careful vetting process and possibly post-entry safeguards such as mandatory touch-points with immigration and security officials.

Recent commentary on both sides of the Syrian refugee debate has featured conservatives waxing enthusiastic over police-state security measures and cavalier dismissal of security concerns by the Left, including a moment of apparent delusion from The Daily Kos when it weighed-in on refugees and certain principles of religious ethics, probably not that outlet’s strong suit. The Left’s usual approach to commentary on social media amounts to an exercise in “virtue signaling” (HT: Glenn Reynolds) without much critical thought, and this is no exception.

Refugees or asylum-seekers may need expedited initial handling for their own safety and protection. The tumultuous experience of fleeing a hostile regime without adequate planning, and possibly involving the loss of loved ones and possessions, suggests a need for greater assistance for refugees than for typical immigrants. The expense of a large influx of refugees is likely to be high. A solution used successfully by Canada involves private sponsorship of refugees, and there are apparently a large number of Americans willing to serve as sponsors. It is possible to vet the sponsors, of course, and might provide more reliable follow-up with the refugees themselves.

Certain classes of immigrants may be considered high-risk, though refugees have not been high-risk historically. This is one of several points made by Davis Bier at the Foundation for Economic Education in “Six Reasons To Welcome Refugees“. Bier provides a good perspective, but I don’t accept all of his assertions. He says (italicized):

  • The Paris attackers were not refugees: No, but at least one of them seems to have taken advantage of the European refugee process.
  • U.S. refugees don’t become terrorists: You can certainly vouch for this in the past tense, but it’s less certain going forward. The complete lack of documentation of many Syrian refugees complicates the vetting process.
  • Other migration channels are easier to exploit: Probably true, if the claimed thoroughness of the refugee vetting process is to be believed. Also, the resettlement from temporary camps can take two years or more, but that kind of delay is not required.
  • ISIS sees Syrian refugees as traitors: This reinforces the need to protect refugees, but it strikes me as irrelevant to the question of terrorist infiltration. A better question is whether ISIS is capable of passing-off one of their own as a refugee.
  • Turning away allies will make us less safe: It certainly won’t win us friends.
  • We should demonstrate moral courage: Helping legitimate refugees is certainly an honorable thing to do. The author points to American resistance to accepting Jewish refugees prior to World War II for fear they might be German spies. This is addressed in more detail below.

A different perspective is given in “There Are Serious, Unbigoted Reasons to Be Wary of a Flood of Syrian Refugees“, by Ian Tuttle in National Review. He asserts that the comparison of current Syrian refugees to Jewish refugees prior to WWII is inappropriate, and I largely agree. The infiltration of German spies into the Jewish refugee population was a perceived threat, but no one thought the Jews represented a risk of terror on our shores. There is nothing incompatible about feeling regret for the attitude many took toward the Jewish refugees of that era while exercising caution in the face of new risks.

Tuttle cites a recent Pew Research poll of Muslims in various countries finding that 4% to 14% of respondents approve of ISIS. Can you imagine a similar level of support for terrorism in the U.S.? This is an unfortunate social malignancy that should give us pause. Another Pew Research poll of Muslims in various countries found that the minority who believe that suicide bombing was justified ranges from 3% to 45%. It is therefore difficult to argue with Tuttle when he says:

“A non-trivial minority of refugees who support a murderous, metastatic caliphate is a reason for serious concern.“

Tuttle notes that Syrian refugees will not arrive on our shores directly from Syria.  Thus, the urgency of accepting those refugees comes into question. It is curious that such wealthy middle eastern countries as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have not accepted refugees from Syria.

Given the immediacy of terrorist threats, the lack of even basic documents for many Syrian refugees, and the Obama Administration’s record of failure in the Middle East, it is reasonable to question their assurances as to the adequacy of the refugee vetting process. Indeed, as this article warns:

“The director of the National Counterterrorism Center admitted that terrorist groups are very interested in using refugee programs to slip operatives into Europe and the United States. … 

The director of Homeland Security had no answer when asked if the “vetting” process amounted to anything more than asking refugees to fill out an application, asking them a few questions in a verbal interview, and assuming they answer honestly….

FBI Director James Comey famously admitted last month that the U.S. government has no real way to conduct background checks on refugees.”

A substantial majority of American voters oppose the administration’s plan to accept Syrian refugees, at least under the current process. Last week, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill requiring that:

“… the heads of the FBI, Homeland Security Department and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence certify that each refugee being admitted would not pose a threat.“

It would be nice to have our security agencies accept some accountability for, well,  national security. The House bill would put the ball in their court with respect to high-risk refugees.

I concur with the general position of Libertarians who support a more open U.S. immigration policy and acceptance of refugees. I also believe that private sponsorship of refugees should be legalized in the U.S. to reduce their fiscal impact. And I believe we should welcome Syrian refugees provided that they can be thoroughly vetted. In the parlance of economics, transacting with refugees may involve severely asymmetric information. It is not advisable to make risky “trades” when due diligence is impossible. Short-cuts in the vetting process do not help to assure a mutually beneficial outcome. We must therefore temper our humanitarian impulse. Under the present circumstances, including an acceptance of terrorism by a “nontrivial minority” of Muslins, it is reasonable to proceed with caution, and only with caution.

Such a Deal… The Obama Legal Doctrine and Iran

11 Friday Sep 2015

Posted by pnoetx in Middle East

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Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Congressional review, David Rivkin, Frozen Iranian Assets, IAEA, INARA, International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, Iran Nuclear Deal, Justin Amash, Mike Pompeo, Pew Research, Sanctions, Self-Inspection, Side Agreements, The Blaze, Verification

iran-nuclear-deal-cartoon

Support among the American public for the Iran nuclear deal has collapsed to just 21%, according to the latest Pew Research poll. But whether you like the deal or not, it appears that the Obama Administration will have acted illegally by failing to present all of the required documents surrounding the deal to Congress before the deadline for a vote. In fact, the deadline itself is not lawful. Those are the points behind a legislative strategy by House Republicans, based on bipartisan legislation signed into law by President Obama on May 22.

The law, The Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015 (INARA), changed the rules under which Congress could ratify a deal negotiated with Iran to rules instead requiring a nullification. Essentially, it allowed Obama to classify the deal as an “executive agreement,” rather than a treaty. Under the Constitution, a treaty requires a 2/3 vote in the Senate for ratification. The INARA establishes a timeline for Congress to consider any deal and requires a negative vote of 2/3 to scuttle it. At the link just above, Representative Mike Pompeo (R-KS) and attorney David Rivkin call this an “exceptional bipartisan congressional accommodation.” Indeed, it was! INARA itself was an enabler of executive power. Now, Obama’s approach to Congressional review of the deal is typical: he is simply ignoring the legal provisions of INARA that he finds inconvenient.

It’s tempting to say the GOP erred badly in supporting the INARA to begin with. However, the legislative strategy explained by Pompeo addresses two key violations of the law. First, it requires the President to submit to Congress all details surrounding the deal, including any “side agreements”, such as the the two described here by Representative Justin Amash:

“These side agreements cover how a primary Iranian military site will be inspected for nuclear activity and how Iran will resolve outstanding issues on possible military dimensions of its nuclear program. Remarkably, it was only through a chance meeting between two members of Congress and the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] that the existence of these secret agreements came to light. The Obama administration apparently preferred to keep Congress in the dark, and even now the administration refuses to provide the side agreements to Congress. Indeed, Secretary of State John Kerry claims that even the president’s negotiating team doesn’t have access to these side agreements.“

Under INARA, the deal should be dead on that basis alone. In addition, INARA states that the 60-day clock for Congressional review does not start ticking until all parts of the agreement (including side deals) have been submitted to Congress. In addition, Obama has no authority to begin lifting sanctions against Iran until the actual review of the entire agreement is complete. From Rep. Pompeo:

“Indeed, since the act also provides for the transmittal of the agreement to Congress between July 10 and Sept. 7, the president’s ability to waive statutory sanctions will remain frozen in perpetuity if Congress does not receive the full agreement Monday [Sept.7].”

So again, the deal should be dead. Unfortunately, today (September 10) in the Senate, Democrats successfully filibustered a resolution against the nuclear deal, so it will not even come to a vote in that chamber. Nevertheless, House Republicans will push on with their own measures:

“Late Thursday [Sept. 10] they agreed on a party-line 245-186 vote to a measure specifying that Obama had not properly submitted all documents related to the accord for Congress’ review, and therefore a 60-day review clock had not really started.

That will be followed Friday by votes on a bill to approve the accord — which is doomed to fail, but Republicans want to force Democrats to go on record in favor of the agreement — and on a measure preventing Obama from lifting congressionally mandated sanctions on Iran.“

In fact, a Congressional lawsuit against the Administration is possible, but the courts move slowly, and removal of sanctions against Iran will begin as early as next week. If a lawsuit goes forward, nothing decisive is likely to happen in the courts until after the 2016 election.

The deal itself has a lot to dislike, starting with the other party to the negotiation. Iran is often described as the largest state sponsor of terrorism in the world. (see here as well.) Yesterday (Sept. 9), in connection with the nuclear deal, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that Israel would no longer exist in 25 years. Would you negotiate with such a malignant counter-party?

Some details of the deal are still a mystery, since provisions of the side deals regarding verification are unknown. If they can be believed, even the Administration does not know all of the details. However, we do know that the deal relies upon the veracity of Iranian self-inspections, which is preposterous. Iran may deny access to “undeclared” nuclear sites by international inspectors. A review process taking up to 24 days may or may not reverse such a denial. Again, the inspections have no teeth. The deal ends embargoes on shipments of conventional arms, which will open the door to more sophisticated weaponry, including certain kinds of ballistic missiles. And the deal also makes over $100 million of frozen assets from oil sales available to Iran, which could be used to fund clients like Hezbollah. What the deal does not include is the release of four Americans currently imprisoned in Iran.

The deal is defended on several grounds, primarily that it is said to be the only way to slow Iran’s development of nuclear weapons. That, of course, is debatable. Verification is iffy, to say the least. The sanctions certainly must slow progress on nuclear development, and tougher sanctions could conceivably do more. And war is not the exclusive alternative, as some supporters have tried to suggest. Will appeasement help to change Iran into a friendly trading partner? Will it make the Iranian theocracy into a real ally? Fat chance! Still, the sanctions carry a humanitarian cost, which is another defense of the deal. Unfortunately, the stakes may be too high to weigh those benefits heavily against the humanitarian disaster that a nuclear Iran and/or a nuclear arms race in the middle east could bring.

Another point of tension in the U.S. is the hard position a number of states are taking on divesting of ownership in companies who do business in Iran. According to The Blaze:

“There’s now a plan to put a defund-Iran measure on the November 2016 ballot in 30 states, all of which already have either laws or policies preventing state tax dollars from going to companies that do business with state sponsors of terrorism.“

However, the Iran agreement contains the following provision:

“If a law at the state or local level in the United States is preventing the implementation of the sanctions lifting as specified in this JCPOA, the United States will take appropriate steps, taking into account all available authorities, with a view to achieving such implementation.“

And what would “all available authorities” entail? Federal lawsuits? Withholding federal funds?

Good or bad, the Iran deal is very likely to be implemented in violation of a law just signed a few months ago by the President. This is yet another example of the cavalier approach to law and to Constitutional authority taken by the Obama Administration. The deal may not survive too long beyond Obama’s term, however.

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