The Regressive Impact of Obamacare On Income

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An attempt to quantify Obamacare’s impact on compensation at the lower end of the income distribution. This is based on the CBO’s estimate of a 1% reduction in labor compensation. For the years 2017-2024, that’s a cool $1 trillion, but the reduction in hours worked is expected to fall mostly on low earners. Obama thinks he can replace this lost income through an increased minimum wage (which will also put a up to 1 million out of work), an expanded EITC and other entitlements. Hold out that rice bowl.

Only “Team Players” Help Perpetuate The Public Bureaucracy

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“The director of the U.S. government office that monitors scientific misconduct in biomedical research has resigned after 2 years out of frustration with the ‘remarkably dysfunctional’ federal bureaucracy.” Here’s the link, somehow missing from my post earlier. Well, it is the federal government. While David Wright’s insights are not exactly news, it’s nice to see his rebuke of the culture inside the Leviathan.

“The Commanding General is well aware that the forecasts are no good”

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“However, he needs them for planning purposes.” That quote, given in this piece, is from a “war story” told by Kenneth Arrow, a well-known economist. Economic forecasts are often inaccurate. OECD economists released an assessment of their own forecasts last month, which was rather harsh. But give them credit: it’s rare to see economists publicly compare their forecasts to actual outcomes at horizons longer than a few quarters. That doesn’t reduce the demand for long-term forecasts and policy simulations. Planners just can’t help themselves, because a plan requires a rationale, and a rationale requires a forecast conditional on plan assumptions, which ultimately provides an excuse for an inaccurate forecast.

One qualification: I submit that not ALL economists are statists! I would say most of us recognize the pernicious effects of regulation and attempts at “planning” on economic growth.

Watching a Society of Free Individuals Evolve Into Martinets

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In “The Road To Serfdom”, Friedrich A. Hayek recognized, in the rise of earlier totalitarian states, the template for the future evolution of social democracies of the West.  

Here’s some background and comments on the relevance of TRTS to the current debate over the role of government.  And here we are today: “… the more that government plans production and consumption, the more the diverse values and preferences of the citizenry must be homogenized and made to conform to an overarching ‘social’ scale of values that mirrors that hierarchy of ends captured in the central plan.”

Sun Cycles and Climate Change

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There is solid evidence that short and long sun cycles are the dominant forces in climate change. Climate warming in the latter part of the 20th century can be traced to two strong 11-year sunspot cycles (technically known as #21 and #22). These were followed by a somewhat weaker cycle that peaked around 2002. Now, at about the maximum of cycle #24, sunspot activity is very weak. There are predictions that #25 will be weaker still, and that the so-called “pause” in climate warming will reverse in the years ahead.

This Heartland blog post discusses the Sun’s proper role in the climate debate, the misplaced emphasis on human activity and carbon emissions by the UN’s IPCC and the “warm-monger” climate faction, and the dire policy implications of the climate confusion.

Playing Favorites?

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The consequences of government bailouts may include efforts to assist management via “friendly” regulation. In this case, that process was encouraged by politicians seeking to make hay over their bailout heroics, and one competitor may have been harmed by regulators as well. The GM bailout was unnecessary. The assets could have been sold at a discount sufficient to make continued operation profitable. Did the Obama White House Protect GM?