Watching a Society of Free Individuals Evolve Into Martinets

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In “The Road To Serfdom”, Friedrich A. Hayek recognized, in the rise of earlier totalitarian states, the template for the future evolution of social democracies of the West.  

Here’s some background and comments on the relevance of TRTS to the current debate over the role of government.  And here we are today: “… the more that government plans production and consumption, the more the diverse values and preferences of the citizenry must be homogenized and made to conform to an overarching ‘social’ scale of values that mirrors that hierarchy of ends captured in the central plan.”

Sun Cycles and Climate Change

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There is solid evidence that short and long sun cycles are the dominant forces in climate change. Climate warming in the latter part of the 20th century can be traced to two strong 11-year sunspot cycles (technically known as #21 and #22). These were followed by a somewhat weaker cycle that peaked around 2002. Now, at about the maximum of cycle #24, sunspot activity is very weak. There are predictions that #25 will be weaker still, and that the so-called “pause” in climate warming will reverse in the years ahead.

This Heartland blog post discusses the Sun’s proper role in the climate debate, the misplaced emphasis on human activity and carbon emissions by the UN’s IPCC and the “warm-monger” climate faction, and the dire policy implications of the climate confusion.

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The consequences of government bailouts may include efforts to assist management via “friendly” regulation. In this case, that process was encouraged by politicians seeking to make hay over their bailout heroics, and one competitor may have been harmed by regulators as well. The GM bailout was unnecessary. The assets could have been sold at a discount sufficient to make continued operation profitable. Did the Obama White House Protect GM?

Cost-Benefit Calculus and Stimulus Spending

I agree with the spirit of this post, though I tend to mistrust government estimates of project costs and benefits.

Chris House's avatarOrderstatistic

I’ve been thinking a bit about stimulus spending recently.  In part this is because Emi Nakamura and Jon Steinsson just recently published a paper on the multiplier in the American Economic Review but it also came up as I was skimming through Paul Krugman’s lecture slides for his Great Recession class.

The logic behind economic stimulus spending is pretty straightforward.  If you are in a recession caused by low demand, the government can step in as a surrogate spender to restore demand and hopefully get the economy out of trouble.  Here is Rachel Maddow describing how she understands stimulus spending during the crisis. Her description is actually pretty good.  The only thing she leaves out is much mention of the multiplier: the ratio between the final change in overall spending to the initial change in government spending. If the government spends money, the workers it employs spend some of their…

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