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Toodle-oo, President Cool Fool

20 Friday Jan 2017

Posted by Nuetzel in Government

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Tags

Barack Obama, Benghazi Attack, Black Lives Matter, Chelsea Manning, Chris Stephens, David Harsanyi, Donald Trump, Drone Attacks, Fast and Furious, Guantanamo, Hillary Clinton, Iran Nuclear Deal, Jeffrey Tucker, Joel Kotkin, Narcissism, Nobel Peace Prize, Obamacare, Oscar Lopez Rivera, Paris Climate Accord, Racial Healing, racism, Solyndra, Syria

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The durability of Barack Obama’s achievements as President of the United States will go down in history as … an oxymoron. He will likely be remembered more for his failures in social, economic, foreign policy and political leadership. Obama has himself to blame for the lack of a durable legacy. From the beginning of his administration, Obama’s mentality with respect to policymaking was always “my way or the highway” (“The election’s over, and I won”), and his consequent failure to achieve legislative victories during his last six years in office was always Congress’ fault. He would share no blame. But it was cool, ’cause Obama had “a pen and a phone” and was willing to act by executive fiat to affect changes he desired. His hope, I suppose, was that his regulatory diktats would become so ingrained in our way of life that rescinding them would be political suicide, much like some of the programs of the New Deal and the Great Society. Well, that backfired! Most of Obama’s executive actions can be undone by executive or legislative action, and while it won’t be costless, it will happen.

The fact of the matter is that Obama’s policies were not productive and not popular. Not only did they contribute to the election of Donald Trump, but they helped fuel the massive losses suffered by Democrats in state houses and governorships over the past eight years. But Obama was always right as rain.

The Planner’s Conceit: A big believer in the power and goodness of government, Obama attempted to usher in a great wave of new regulation and social planning. Here is David Harsanyi in Reason:

“The president’s central case for government’s existence rests on the notion of the state being society’s moral center, engine of prosperity and arbiter of fairness. Obama speaks of government as a theocrat might speak of church, and his fans return the favor by treating him like a pope.“

Obama is a man who lacks any understanding of the causes of prosperity: personal and economic freedoms, individual initiative, and healthy private markets. Jeffrey Tucker makes this point eloquently in “Why Obama Failed“:

“Despite his vast knowledge on seemingly everything, and endless amounts of charm to sell himself to the public, he missed the one crucial thing. He never understood wealth is not a given; it must be created through enterprise and innovation, trade and experimentation, by real people who need the freedom to try, unencumbered by a regulatory and confiscatory state. This doesn’t happen just because there is a nice and popular guy in the White House. It happens because the institutions are right.“

Obama’s results underscore his ignorance regarding the fundamental drivers of material well-being: economic growth during the post-recession years has been very sluggish, and while the unemployment rate has declined, it is not as impressive as it might appear: many workers have been forced into part-time jobs, and the decline in the jobless rate was exaggerated with declines in labor force participation to levels not seen since the late 1970s. Perhaps not coincidentally, the number of workers claiming Social Security disability benefits happened to soar as employment prospects remained grim. Slow growth in the economy and budget sequestration (an action Obama blames on republicans despite having proposed it himself as a cudgel) have reduced the annual budget deficit, but the nation’s outstanding debt under Obama has increased by $10 trillion, doubling the total outstanding over his eight years. Future annual deficits are projected to soar under his policies, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Two factors that would contribute to ballooning deficits, if allowed to stand, are the Paris Climate Accord, signed by Obama without the Senate’s consent, and Obamacare. The climate treaty would do little to change global temperatures, but would impose heavy costs on the U.S. in terms of subsidies for foreign energy projects, regulatory burdens, and energy bills.

Failing Health Care: The future budget impact of the Paris Accord could be minor compared to Obama’s greatest source of pride: the Affordable Care Act (ACA), a.k.a. Obamacare. Recent scare stories have softened public opinion regarding the ACA, but so unpopular was this “landmark” legislation that Donald Trump was elected in part because he promised, along with congressional republicans (who played no part in its passage) to “repeal and replace” the law. The failures of the ACA were covered in my last post, “Death By Obamacare“.

Foreign FUBARs: The foreign policy foibles of the Obama Administration are legend. From Benghazi to the Syrian “red line”, from the botched deal on nuclear weapons development by Iran to the weak stand on Russian expansionism, American foreign policy has never been such an embarrassment. Obama, the recipient of a dubious Nobel Peace Prize, has been an avid drone warrior, collateral damage be damned. Our continued involvement in Afghanistan and the reentry of U.S. forces into Iraq must be sorely disappointing to the anti-war constituency Obama once courted. He has alienated our longstanding allies and cooed in the ears of avowed enemies. His grants of clemency in recent days to the likes of the treasonous Chelsea Manning and terrorists like Oscar Lopez Rivera are symbolic of the contempt in which he holds the lives lost at their hands. Our weakness abroad has led to a loss of respect for the U.S., signaled vividly by our exclusion from peace talks in Syria. Recent events have increased public awareness of our vulnerability to cyber-attack from foreign enemies, but Obama has failed to provide leadership on the issue.

Scandalous: Obama’s tenure as president has been marked by a number of scandals, contrary to what his admirers would have us believe. The Fast and Furious operation by ATF agents put guns in the hands of criminals and drug cartels, resulting in the death of a border control agent, but the Obama Justice Department sought to obstruct an investigation. The massacre at the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya led to the death of four Americans, including Ambassador Chris Stephens. The White House and State Department sought to create a misleading story line, claiming an anti-Muslim video was responsible for a protest gone-wrong, when in fact they were well aware that it was a planned terrorist action. A deeper question is whether Stephens was in Benghazi attempting to arrange arms sales to “Syrian rebels”. Then there are the attempts by the IRS to target opposition to Obama, and conservative groups generally, and an apparent effort to conceal that activity, as well as cases in which it appeared that the administration was targeting members of the press whom they considered unfriendly. There were a number of other scandals and events such as the Solyndra subsidies, which suggested high corruption and cronyism. Here is an excellent discussion of a variety of dubious antics by the Obama Administration, and the shady efforts to keep them quiet.

Racial Muckraking: Ironically, Obama’s greatest failing might well have been the racial discord that boiled up during his two terms. As the first African-American president of the U.S., there was a considerable expectation that his legacy would be one of racial healing. Instead, it was as if he deliberately sought to encourage discord. Here is Joel Kotkin’s description of the president’s missteps on race relations:

“Whenever race-related issues came up — notably in the area of law enforcement — Obama and his Justice Department have tended to embrace the narrative that America remains hopelessly racist. As a result, he seemed to embrace groups like Black Lives Matter and, wherever possible, blame law enforcement, even as crime was soaring in many cities, particularly those with beleaguered African American communities.

Eight years after his election, more Americans now consider race relations to be getting worse, and we are more ethnically divided than in any time in recent history. As has been the case for several decades, African Americans’ economic equality has continued to slip, and is lower now than it was when Obama came into office in 2009, according to a 2016 Urban League study.“

The Liar: Obama is an unrepentant liar. Even the Washington Post felt it necessary to catalog some of the Obama lies that made it into their headlines (through many did not). There was the infamous Benghazi deception; the “Like Your Plan, Keep Your Plan” fib; he quoted enrollment numbers on the Obamacare exchanges that were greatly exaggerated; he publicly denied that domestic surveillance was a reality; he claimed that he was not responsible for our withdrawal from Iraq… what? There were efforts to cover and dissemble regarding details of all the scandals referenced above. By now, Obama’s insistence that his would be the “most transparent administration in history” is rather humorous. Most of Obama’s lies were motivated by ideology, and that might make it worse in my book. What’s particularly galling is the lie that Obama has any respect for the Constitution. He has attempted to subvert it with regularity.

I, Barack Obama: Another common trait among politicians is narcissism, but few are as obvious about it as Barack Obama. He has a habit of self-referencing that may be unequaled in political oratory. In fact, last July at the Democratic National Convention, he mentioned himself 119 times in a speech about Hillary Clinton. He is always eager to invoke his personal story as a possible source of inspiration for others. He is seemingly preoccupied with his legacy, going out his way to issue additional executive orders in the waning days of his term, and giving a “final” address in which he glorified his accomplishments. And then there was a final-final press conference at which he did the same. He has always encouraged the perception that Barack Obama is the “smartest guy in the room”. Of course, he is never wrong, and everything is cool. Obama seems to believe that he can make reality conform to his every assertion –oh yeah, I already talked about lies!

Did Obama’s narcissism contribute to his failed presidency? It’s plausible because he invested too much in his own ability to teach, influence others,  and control events. Collaboration with important stakeholders was unnecessary, and indeed, it was often better to demonize anyone who stood in the way of the world according to Barack. That world was a sad self-delusion.

Such a Deal… The Obama Legal Doctrine and Iran

11 Friday Sep 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Middle East

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Tags

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Congressional review, David Rivkin, Frozen Iranian Assets, IAEA, INARA, International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, Iran Nuclear Deal, Justin Amash, Mike Pompeo, Pew Research, Sanctions, Self-Inspection, Side Agreements, The Blaze, Verification

iran-nuclear-deal-cartoon

Support among the American public for the Iran nuclear deal has collapsed to just 21%, according to the latest Pew Research poll. But whether you like the deal or not, it appears that the Obama Administration will have acted illegally by failing to present all of the required documents surrounding the deal to Congress before the deadline for a vote. In fact, the deadline itself is not lawful. Those are the points behind a legislative strategy by House Republicans, based on bipartisan legislation signed into law by President Obama on May 22.

The law, The Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015 (INARA), changed the rules under which Congress could ratify a deal negotiated with Iran to rules instead requiring a nullification. Essentially, it allowed Obama to classify the deal as an “executive agreement,” rather than a treaty. Under the Constitution, a treaty requires a 2/3 vote in the Senate for ratification. The INARA establishes a timeline for Congress to consider any deal and requires a negative vote of 2/3 to scuttle it. At the link just above, Representative Mike Pompeo (R-KS) and attorney David Rivkin call this an “exceptional bipartisan congressional accommodation.” Indeed, it was! INARA itself was an enabler of executive power. Now, Obama’s approach to Congressional review of the deal is typical: he is simply ignoring the legal provisions of INARA that he finds inconvenient.

It’s tempting to say the GOP erred badly in supporting the INARA to begin with. However, the legislative strategy explained by Pompeo addresses two key violations of the law. First, it requires the President to submit to Congress all details surrounding the deal, including any “side agreements”, such as the the two described here by Representative Justin Amash:

“These side agreements cover how a primary Iranian military site will be inspected for nuclear activity and how Iran will resolve outstanding issues on possible military dimensions of its nuclear program. Remarkably, it was only through a chance meeting between two members of Congress and the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] that the existence of these secret agreements came to light. The Obama administration apparently preferred to keep Congress in the dark, and even now the administration refuses to provide the side agreements to Congress. Indeed, Secretary of State John Kerry claims that even the president’s negotiating team doesn’t have access to these side agreements.“

Under INARA, the deal should be dead on that basis alone. In addition, INARA states that the 60-day clock for Congressional review does not start ticking until all parts of the agreement (including side deals) have been submitted to Congress. In addition, Obama has no authority to begin lifting sanctions against Iran until the actual review of the entire agreement is complete. From Rep. Pompeo:

“Indeed, since the act also provides for the transmittal of the agreement to Congress between July 10 and Sept. 7, the president’s ability to waive statutory sanctions will remain frozen in perpetuity if Congress does not receive the full agreement Monday [Sept.7].”

So again, the deal should be dead. Unfortunately, today (September 10) in the Senate, Democrats successfully filibustered a resolution against the nuclear deal, so it will not even come to a vote in that chamber. Nevertheless, House Republicans will push on with their own measures:

“Late Thursday [Sept. 10] they agreed on a party-line 245-186 vote to a measure specifying that Obama had not properly submitted all documents related to the accord for Congress’ review, and therefore a 60-day review clock had not really started.

That will be followed Friday by votes on a bill to approve the accord — which is doomed to fail, but Republicans want to force Democrats to go on record in favor of the agreement — and on a measure preventing Obama from lifting congressionally mandated sanctions on Iran.“

In fact, a Congressional lawsuit against the Administration is possible, but the courts move slowly, and removal of sanctions against Iran will begin as early as next week. If a lawsuit goes forward, nothing decisive is likely to happen in the courts until after the 2016 election.

The deal itself has a lot to dislike, starting with the other party to the negotiation. Iran is often described as the largest state sponsor of terrorism in the world. (see here as well.) Yesterday (Sept. 9), in connection with the nuclear deal, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that Israel would no longer exist in 25 years. Would you negotiate with such a malignant counter-party?

Some details of the deal are still a mystery, since provisions of the side deals regarding verification are unknown. If they can be believed, even the Administration does not know all of the details. However, we do know that the deal relies upon the veracity of Iranian self-inspections, which is preposterous. Iran may deny access to “undeclared” nuclear sites by international inspectors. A review process taking up to 24 days may or may not reverse such a denial. Again, the inspections have no teeth. The deal ends embargoes on shipments of conventional arms, which will open the door to more sophisticated weaponry, including certain kinds of ballistic missiles. And the deal also makes over $100 million of frozen assets from oil sales available to Iran, which could be used to fund clients like Hezbollah. What the deal does not include is the release of four Americans currently imprisoned in Iran.

The deal is defended on several grounds, primarily that it is said to be the only way to slow Iran’s development of nuclear weapons. That, of course, is debatable. Verification is iffy, to say the least. The sanctions certainly must slow progress on nuclear development, and tougher sanctions could conceivably do more. And war is not the exclusive alternative, as some supporters have tried to suggest. Will appeasement help to change Iran into a friendly trading partner? Will it make the Iranian theocracy into a real ally? Fat chance! Still, the sanctions carry a humanitarian cost, which is another defense of the deal. Unfortunately, the stakes may be too high to weigh those benefits heavily against the humanitarian disaster that a nuclear Iran and/or a nuclear arms race in the middle east could bring.

Another point of tension in the U.S. is the hard position a number of states are taking on divesting of ownership in companies who do business in Iran. According to The Blaze:

“There’s now a plan to put a defund-Iran measure on the November 2016 ballot in 30 states, all of which already have either laws or policies preventing state tax dollars from going to companies that do business with state sponsors of terrorism.“

However, the Iran agreement contains the following provision:

“If a law at the state or local level in the United States is preventing the implementation of the sanctions lifting as specified in this JCPOA, the United States will take appropriate steps, taking into account all available authorities, with a view to achieving such implementation.“

And what would “all available authorities” entail? Federal lawsuits? Withholding federal funds?

Good or bad, the Iran deal is very likely to be implemented in violation of a law just signed a few months ago by the President. This is yet another example of the cavalier approach to law and to Constitutional authority taken by the Obama Administration. The deal may not survive too long beyond Obama’s term, however.

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