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A Socialist Wreckoning
16 Sunday Mar 2014
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16 Sunday Mar 2014
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16 Sunday Mar 2014
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“However, he needs them for planning purposes.” That quote, given in this piece, is from a “war story” told by Kenneth Arrow, a well-known economist. Economic forecasts are often inaccurate. OECD economists released an assessment of their own forecasts last month, which was rather harsh. But give them credit: it’s rare to see economists publicly compare their forecasts to actual outcomes at horizons longer than a few quarters. That doesn’t reduce the demand for long-term forecasts and policy simulations. Planners just can’t help themselves, because a plan requires a rationale, and a rationale requires a forecast conditional on plan assumptions, which ultimately provides an excuse for an inaccurate forecast.
One qualification: I submit that not ALL economists are statists! I would say most of us recognize the pernicious effects of regulation and attempts at “planning” on economic growth.
15 Saturday Mar 2014
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In “The Road To Serfdom”, Friedrich A. Hayek recognized, in the rise of earlier totalitarian states, the template for the future evolution of social democracies of the West.
Here’s some background and comments on the relevance of TRTS to the current debate over the role of government. And here we are today: “… the more that government plans production and consumption, the more the diverse values and preferences of the citizenry must be homogenized and made to conform to an overarching ‘social’ scale of values that mirrors that hierarchy of ends captured in the central plan.”
15 Saturday Mar 2014
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There is solid evidence that short and long sun cycles are the dominant forces in climate change. Climate warming in the latter part of the 20th century can be traced to two strong 11-year sunspot cycles (technically known as #21 and #22). These were followed by a somewhat weaker cycle that peaked around 2002. Now, at about the maximum of cycle #24, sunspot activity is very weak. There are predictions that #25 will be weaker still, and that the so-called “pause” in climate warming will reverse in the years ahead.
This Heartland blog post discusses the Sun’s proper role in the climate debate, the misplaced emphasis on human activity and carbon emissions by the UN’s IPCC and the “warm-monger” climate faction, and the dire policy implications of the climate confusion.
13 Thursday Mar 2014
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Professional laughers apparently are a staple in today’s live audiences, and the going rate is $75 for… a day?? The Humor Code: Professional Laughers, Straight Out of Central Casting
13 Thursday Mar 2014
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The consequences of government bailouts may include efforts to assist management via “friendly” regulation. In this case, that process was encouraged by politicians seeking to make hay over their bailout heroics, and one competitor may have been harmed by regulators as well. The GM bailout was unnecessary. The assets could have been sold at a discount sufficient to make continued operation profitable. Did the Obama White House Protect GM?
11 Tuesday Mar 2014
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The Coyote Blog ponders whether “moderation” too often requires ideological inconsistency: Can One Be A Principled Moderate? And What the Hell Is A Moderate, Anyway?
10 Monday Mar 2014
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Post hoc ergo propter hoc: turnabout better be fair play when the rules of conduct are based on one-dimensional, post-hoc results.
http://m.us.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303824204579423721516531650?ref=/home-page
10 Monday Mar 2014
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I agree with the spirit of this post, though I tend to mistrust government estimates of project costs and benefits.
I’ve been thinking a bit about stimulus spending recently. In part this is because Emi Nakamura and Jon Steinsson just recently published a paper on the multiplier in the American Economic Review but it also came up as I was skimming through Paul Krugman’s lecture slides for his Great Recession class.
The logic behind economic stimulus spending is pretty straightforward. If you are in a recession caused by low demand, the government can step in as a surrogate spender to restore demand and hopefully get the economy out of trouble. Here is Rachel Maddow describing how she understands stimulus spending during the crisis. Her description is actually pretty good. The only thing she leaves out is much mention of the multiplier: the ratio between the final change in overall spending to the initial change in government spending. If the government spends money, the workers it employs spend some of their…
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10 Monday Mar 2014
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Well, if it’s so great, let’s find out what’s in it! “The president continues to defend Obamacare as a grand benefit for the nation. But neither he nor his fellow Democrats are willing to make that case to voters.”
From The Detroit News:
http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140307/OPINION01/303070001#ixzz2vT9DJDUs
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