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How We Hinder Mobility

06 Monday Feb 2017

Posted by Nuetzel in Labor Markets, Mobility

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Tags

CityLab, David Schleicher, Defined Benefit Vesting, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Geographic entry barriers, Geographic exit barriers, Immigration policy, Joel Kotkin, Medicaid, Mobility, Mortgage Interest Deduction, Occupational Licencing, Rent Controls, Richard Florida, Ronald Bailey, SNAP, Structural Unemployment, TANF, Tax Revaluation, Transfer Taxes, Zoning laws

moving

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A plethora of regulations and subsidies established by governments at all levels is making it more difficult for Americans to move, especially from one state to another. Yale Law Professor David Schleicher identifies these barriers to mobility and writes that they compromise the nation’s ability to match jobs with workers. Thus, these laws beget economic immobility as well. His paper, “Stuck in Place: Law and the Economic Consequences of Residential Stability“, describes a number of the barriers:

“Land-use laws and occupational licensing regimes limit entry into local and state labor markets; differing eligibility standards for public benefits, public employee pension policies, homeownership subsidies, state and local tax regimes, and even basic property law rules reduce exit from states and cities with less opportunity; and building codes, mobile home bans, federal location-based subsidies, legal constraints on knocking down houses and the problematic structure of Chapter 9 municipal bankruptcy all limit the capacity of failing cities to ‘shrink’ gracefully, directly reducing exit among some populations and increasing the economic and social costs of entry limits elsewhere.“

To get a sense of the magnitude of declines in mobility over the past three decades, see Figure 3 in this discussion about mobility by Richard Florida at CityLab. The percentage of homeowners who move declined from almost 10% annually in the late 1980s to about 5% in 2016. The biggest declines occurred during the periods of economic weakness in 2001 and 2008. For renters, the percentage of movers declined from just above 35% in 1988 to less than 24% in 2016.

Workers who might otherwise migrate to jurisdictions with better economic opportunities often cannot do so. Schleicher notes that low-income workers suffer the most from these obstacles, which he divides into entry and exit barriers. Most of the obstacles he cites are compelling, though at times his emphasis veers toward enabling more effective government management of the macroeconomy, which is very unappealing to my libertarian instincts.

Entry Barriers

Schleicher emphasizes two major ways in which entry barriers are created. One is the spread and severity of land use restrictions such as zoning and construction laws, which have become so severe in some areas of the country that they have led to drastic inflation in housing prices. In a review of Schliecher’s paper, Ronald Bailey at Reason.com illustrates the disparities created by this process:

“According to the Trulia real estate market analysis, the median house price in San Francisco is $1.2 million, with a median rent of $4,100 a month; in Youngstown it’s $93,000, with a median rent of $650. In other words, a Youngstown worker who sold his home for full price would receive enough money to rent a place in San Francisco for 22 months.“

The contrast in the economies of these two cities is stark. The San Francisco Bay Area has experienced vibrant job growth over the past several years, while Youngstown has been struggling for decades. Given the difference in housing prices and rents, it would be almost impossible for a worker from Youngstown to pursue an opportunity in the Bay Area without a accepting a severe decline in their standard of living. Joel Kotkin makes a similar point in discussing the high cost of housing in some areas, but his focus is on the difficult prospects for economic mobility and homeownership among Millennials.

The second major entry barrier discussed by Schleicher takes the form of occupational licensing laws. They differ across states but have multiplied since the 1950s. According to Richard Florida (linked above), the share of American workers subject to some form of licensing requirement rose from just 5% in the 1950s to 25% by 2008. Schleicher cites low rates of interstate mobility among professions that typically require a license to practice. Veterans of those occupations tend to have an established book of business, however, so it’s reasonable to expect fewer distant moves. Nevertheless, the cost of obtaining a license in a new state and differing licensure requirements are likely to inhibit the mobility of licensed professionals.

Exit Barriers

One of the most interesting sections in Schleicher’s paper is on exit barriers. Locations are always “sticky” to the extent that local ties exist or develop over time, both between people and between people and local institutions. But some institutions create ties that are severely binding. For example, state and local government employees are often enrolled in defined benefit plans with lengthy vesting periods. Remaining in one system throughout a career can be a huge advantage. Other exit barriers involve differences in eligibility and levels of aid under federal programs managed by states such as Medicaid, Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF), and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP — food stamps). Beyond the actual benefits at stake, administrative costs and delays in re-enrollment might hinder a needy family’s attempt to make an interstate move.

Local and state law on property transfers can also impinge on mobility. Real estate transfer taxes in some states certainly create an incentive to stay put. Also, while tax reassessments occur with regularity in most jurisdictions, some impose limits on the amount of the annual change in valuation, requiring a full tax revaluation on resale, so a seller must forego such a tax discount. Rent controls reward renters who stay in place, creating another exit barrier. And rent controls prevent entry as well, as they invariably reduce the supply of quality housing, thereby inflating the rents of vacated apartments available to new residents.

Finally, federal policies designed to encourage homeownership create exit barriers across the country. Ownership of a residence increases the “stickiness” of any locale, but the loss of a mortgage interest income-tax deduction adds to the sacrifice of a move to a rental unit in a more expensive location. So does the interest rate subsidy inherent in the implicit federal guarantee against default on mortgages securitized by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Finally, when local economies are in a state of decline, home prices usually follow. Consequently, owners are likely to suffer reduced or negative equity in their homes and may be “locked in”, unable to pay off their mortgage on a sale, and therefore unable to leave their current residence.

Rent Seeking and Good Intentions

Some of the policies discussed above are the handiwork of those powerful enough to enlist government power in their own self-interest. That includes zoning laws, by which property owners can prevent land uses they deem undesirable. It also includes occupational licensing, a political avenue through which established business interests limit competition by new entrants. Of course, licensure is typically sold to voters as consumer protection, a claim that is often dubious.

Other policies that hinder mobility can be characterized as well-intentioned, like the old-style, defined benefit plans still in use by many state and local governments, or federal subsidies for homeownership. Many such policies are, or have been, promoted on the basis of the obvious gains they create for individuals, with little thought given to the “unseen” but damaging economic consequences. Rent controls fall into this category as well, but are very damaging in the long-term.

The Labor Market Ossified

All of the mobility-limiting policies discussed by Schleicher have a detrimental effect on the performance of labor markets. Workers tend to get stuck in depressed areas, where their value as human resources is diminished even while employers in other markets face limited supplies of qualified labor. This leads to higher structural unemployment, lower growth in output, and more difficulty for the private sector in meeting the needs of consumers than otherwise be possible.

I haven’t dealt with one other national policy dealing explicitly with geographic mobility: immigration. Restrictions on legal immigration and the issuance of green cards are often sought by interests hoping to protect Americans from competition for jobs. Suspending competition is never a good idea, however, as it leads to higher prices and undermines consumer interests. To the extent that businesses face a shortage of qualified talent to fill particular jobs, as is often the case, such restrictive policies are unequivocally damaging to the economy for the same reasons as barriers to interstate migration. Liberalized immigration allows more foreigners with peaceful, productive and often entrepreneurial intent to contribute to the country’s ability to create wealth.

Prescriptions

What can be done to promote interstate mobility? Here is a list that is undoubtedly incomplete: encourage state and local governments to end rent controls; liberalize zoning laws; reevaluate construction restrictions; liberalize occupational licensing; reduce real estate transfer taxes and smooth the timing of tax revaluations. Governments should also transition from defined benefit to defined contribution benefit plans, a step that would also allow them to avoid persistent overoptimism about their ability to meet future pension obligations. As long as states manage federal aid programs and have leeway in setting eligibility requirements and their share of benefits, there will be exit barriers to low-income recipients. Perhaps states should be required to coordinate benefits, with strict time limits, when recipients move interstate to pursue employment opportunities. Finally, subsidies encouraging homeownership should be phased out, including the federal tax deduction for mortgage interest and full privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. A neutral stance with respect to homeownership would allow the market to seek an optimal balance in residential property ownership without creating excessive locational anchors.

Schleicher devotes a large part of his paper to the implications of reduced mobility for macroeconomic stabilization policy. In particular, he contends that measures intended to stimulate the economy cannot be as effective when labor supplies are inflexible. That might be true, but I’m loath to endorse Keynesian activism. Still, there is no doubt that geographic stasis of the kind described by Schleicher contributes to immobility in incomes as well. The main conclusion I draw from his paper is that governments ought to be very cautious about interfering in market transactions, even when convinced that their cause is noble. The law of unintended consequences has a way of foiling the best laid plans of social engineers.

Government “Planning” A High-Density Housing Crash

29 Tuesday Sep 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Housing Policy

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Tags

central planning, Chinese malinvestment, Densification, Detached Housing, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, High-density housing, Housing, Housing inflation, Joel Kotkin, New Geography, Oversupply, Regionalism, Too big to fail, Urban planning

work.5868804.1.flat,550x550,075,f.high-density-living

How will the next housing bust play out? Joel Kotkin believes that it will be an unavoidable consequence of “high-density” policies imposed by central planners. That is Kotkin’s major theme in “China’s Planned City Bubble Is About To Pop—And Even You’ll Feel It“, an essay in New Geography.

Central planning generally achieves undesirable results because it is incapable of solving the “knowledge problem”. That is, planners lack the detailed and dynamic information needed to align production with preferences. Freely-operating markets do not face this problem because voluntary trade between individuals establishes prices that balance preferences with resource availability. There are severe frictions in the case of housing that slow the process, but it is almost as if central planners willfully ignore strong signals about preferences, instead promoting measures such as “containment policies” and “regionalism” that restrict choice and inflate home prices. Of course, the technocratic elite think they know what’s good for you!

Kotkin begins by drawing a contrast between policies that led to the last housing crisis and the short-sighted policies now in place that could lead to another:

“If the last real estate collapse was created due to insanely easy lending policies aimed at the middle and working classes, the current one has its roots largely in a regime of cheap money married to policies of planners who believe that they can shape the urban future from above.“

The list of bad government policies precipitating the last housing bust is long, and I have discussed them before here on Sacred Cow Chips. They included federal encouragement of loose lending standards, a strong bias favoring mortgage assets embedded in bank capital standards, the implicit federal guarantee of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac against losses, the mortgage-interest income tax deduction, and an easy-money policy by the Federal Reserve. These all represent market distortions that led to a malinvestment of excess housing. Several of those policies are still in place, and today the presumption of “too-big-too-fail” financial guarantees by the federal government is as strong as ever, so risk is not adequately managed.

But the tale of today’s housing market woes told by Kotkin really begins in China, where the government has been on a high-density housing binge for a number of years:

“As a highpoint in social engineering, a whole new dense city (Kangbashi) has been constructed by the Ordos, Inner Mongolia city government, in the middle of nowhere, growing, but still apparently mainly vacant. … The key here is not so much planning, per se, but planning in a manner that ignores the aspirations of people. Americans no more want to live stacked in boxes in the middle of nowhere than do their Chinese counterparts.“

Kotkin is too generous to central planning, and he is sloppy about the distinction between public and private planning efforts: while China’s current real estate difficulties may be a case of extreme negligence, central government planning always has and always will suffer from a mismatch between preferences and supplies that is strongly resistant to self-correction. Ultimately, resources are wasted. In any case, China’s easy monetary policy and efforts to “densify” led to an inflation of urban housing prices. The situation is unsustainable and the market is now extremely weak.

Can the U.S. “catch China’s cold”, as Kotkin suggests? That’s likely for several reasons. First, as noted by Kotkin, the Chinese government’s efforts to stabilize domestic asset prices and maintain economic growth have led to restrictions on foreign investment, which will undercut asset values in the U.S. (and even more in Australia). More importantly, governments in the U.S. have caught an extreme case of the “planning bug” with the same bias in favor of high density as the Chinese central planners:

“… increasingly, particularly during the Obama years, state planning agencies, notably in California, and the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) have embraced a largely anti-suburban, pro-density agenda.“

Kotkin cites evidence of a strong preference among U.S. households for detached housing, but government authorities prefer to dictate their own vision of residential life:

“… like Soviet planners and their Chinese counterparts, our political elite and the planning apparat seem to care little about preferences, and have sought to limit single-family homes through regulations. This is most evident in California, notably its coastal areas, where house prices and rents have risen to hitherto stratospheric levels.

The losers here include younger middle and working class families. Given the regulatory cost, developers have a strong incentive to build homes predominately for the affluent; the era of the Levittown-style ‘starter home’, which would particularly benefit younger families, is all but defunct. Spurred by the current, highly unequal recovery, these patterns can be seen elsewhere, with a sharp drop in middle income housing affordability while the market shifts towards luxury houses.“

In an interesting aside, Kotkin emphasizes that high-density housing is often more expensive to construct than single-family homes, so it does not advance the cause of affordability, as is often claimed.

The close of Kotkin’s essay summarizes misguided policies now in place and the ominous conditions they have created in some of the nation’s most expensive housing markets:

“Today’s emerging potential bubble is driven in large part by low interest rates and a new post—TARP financial structure, anchored by ultra-low interest rates, which favor wealthy investors…. This, plus planning policies, has accelerated a boom in multi-family construction, much of it directed at high-end consumers. In New York and London, wealthy foreigners as well as the indigenous rich have invested heavily in high-rise apartments, many of which remain empty for much of the year. In San Francisco, for example, roughly half of all new condos are owned by non-residents, including both Chinese investors and Silicon Valley executives. … Since the vast majority of people cannot afford to buy these apartments, even if they want them, this kind of construction does little to address the country’s housing shortage.“

Housing policy has long been dominated by subsidies that encourage over-investment in housing. At the same time, restrictions increasingly limit the development of detached homes, which is what most people prefer. Local control over decisions about housing development is being compromised by intrusive federal policies of “regionalism” that demand more high-density housing in costly areas. These policies are unlikely to benefit low- and middle-income households, who are increasingly unable to afford the high cost of quality urban housing as either renters or buyers. Either prices must adjust downward, as Kotkin suggests, or more subsidies will be required to keep the bubble inflated. Like China, we will be unable to stave off a correction indefinitely.

Government’s Siren Song of Mortgage Risk

19 Friday Dec 2014

Posted by Nuetzel in Uncategorized

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Arnold Kling, Dodd-Frank, Fannie Mae, Foreclosure, Freddie Mac, Housing Crisis, Interest-only loans, Nontraditional mortgages, Option ARMs, Peter Wallison, Subprime lending, Too big to fail

subprime

What’s not to like about cheap, easy housing credit? It would be hard to criticize if it developed in response to real risks and rewards in a free market, devoid of interference by public authorities. Lenders with their own capital at risk tend to keep their pencils sharp when assessing collateral and borrower repayment capacity; borrowers respond to rate incentives by adjusting the timing of their consumption and their borrowing demands. This helps keep the extension of credit at manageable levels relative to earning power, and discourages destructive boom and bust cycles in housing prices. Conceivably, such arrangements could give rise to a more stable and prosperous economy with relatively, realistically easy credit as a by-product. If so, I’m all for it.

Unfortunately, that is not the sort of housing finance market we have in the U.S. In particular, bank lending often carries little real risk to anyone but taxpayers. Depositors who fund bank lending are almost always 100% federally-insured. As for bank capital, large institutions may be rational to regard themselves as too-big-to-fail, meaning that federal authorities will come forward with bailout money should they fall on hard times. Borrowers are encouraged by mortgage agency buyers (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) whose implicit federal guarantees reduce the nominal cost of borrowing, and whose standards of credit quality tend to move procyclically. Borrowers are subsidized by the tax deductibility of interest costs. Bankruptcy laws and foreclosure rules make collecting on bad debts more difficult. Finally, there is always pressure on lenders to engage proactively in high-risk community lending.

When risks are meaningless to market participants and rewards are inflated, the normal self-regulatory function of the market is suspended. Who cares about mistakes when you don’t have to pay the consequences? But society ultimately pays in misallocated resources, higher taxes and unstable markets. And while the costs to lenders and borrowers are blunted, most don’t get off scot-free: other consequences may include falling housing prices, widespread personal bankruptcies and damaged credit, foreclosures, stricter regulatory oversight, and a prolonged follow-on episode of hard credit.

The expansion of credit leading up to the housing crisis was marked by the rise of non-traditional mortgage products, which typically involve risky collateral and borrowers with tenuous credit. Interest-only mortgages reduce the borrower’s monthly payments, but the borrower fails to build their equity cushion over time. Payment option adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) can be criticized on the same grounds, except they are arguably worse. Subprime mortgages are characterized by high loan-to-value ratios and tend to be marketed to borrowers with less than stellar credit histories.

Arnold Kling reviews a new book by Peter Wallison on the role of “non-traditional” mortgages in the financial crisis. Wallison highlights the culpability of government in encouraging the subprime lending boom, especially Fannie and Freddie. He also points to the failure of government to institute real reforms to prevent the recurrence of such a crisis:

“Congress mandated regulation of practices that played no role in the crisis, either because legislators wanted to mislead the public or were themselves misled. Meanwhile, they did not confront the issue of what do about Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, and they left the door open for the return of nontraditional mortgages. Indeed, Melvin L. Watt, the recently appointed regulator of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, is once again calling for the loosening of underwriting standards.”

The drift back to risky lending is underway. Dodd-Frank will not stop it or end “too-big-to-fail” risk-taking and cronyism. The best advice to potential borrowers is to emphasize adverse personal and economic scenarios when evaluating a loan offer, and try to resist the temptation to over-invest in housing. AS voters, we  should demand an end to destructive government intervention in housing markets and home lending.

Mortgage Mania at the Fed

09 Thursday Oct 2014

Posted by Nuetzel in Uncategorized

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Tags

Fannie Mae, Federal Reserve, Freddie Mac, Industrial Policy, Monetary Stimulus, Mortgage Interest Deduction, Mortgage Securities, Quantitative Easing, Richmond Fed, Wall Street Journal

bernanke-fed-qe

The Federal Reserve has no business distorting incentives by dabbling with billions in markets for private debt. Kudos to two officials at the Richmond Fed for making this point forcefully in the Wall Street Journal** today.

Normally, the Fed conducts monetary policy by buying or selling Treasury debt, which is thought to be neutral with respect to relative private interest rates. In other words, the Fed’s impact on the Treasury market, whatever that might be, does not encourage investment in housing at the expense of factory investment or vice versa. Since 2009, however, the Fed has attempted to support the housing and mortgage markets via massive purchases  of mortgage securities originally issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This has the effect of reducing mortgage interest rates relative to rates on other kinds of private debt. It also constitutes a form of bailout for mortgage investors, who tend to receive favorable bids from the Fed for these assets. Free money! And more free money is dolled out by the Fed when it pays banks interest on the new reserve balances these transactions ultimately create.

One might object that the struggling mortgage market needed the Fed’s support in the wake of the housing crash. I do not accept that view because the mortgage and housing markets needed to unwind their excesses and monetary stimulus did not require mortgage purchases. But this also begs the question: what gave rise to the crisis? Over-investment in housing and a home price bubble fueled by tax-deductible interest, easy Fed monetary policy, regulatory capital standards that favored mortgage lending, prospective bailouts in case of failure, and loose bank credit standards. Those should all sound familiar. Now, the Fed believes it’s necessary to re-inflate the mortgage market via continuing asset purchases.

The Fed’s policies can be criticized on other grounds, but interfering in private debt markets should be avoided. It is an example of industrial policy that is clearly not even part of the Fed’s so-called mandate, and it ultimately means a continuing massive misallocation of resources into housing at the expense of other forms of investment.

** The article at the link should be ungated. If not, try Googling “wsj Fed’s Mortgage Favoritism.”

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