School Shootings, Distorted Trends, and Hysteria

28 Wednesday Feb 2018

Tags

Columbine, Drug War, Gun Control, Gun Suicides, James Alan Fox, Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, Mass Shootings, Parkland FL, School Shootings

It’s not possible to exaggerate the tragic nature of a school shooting, but the frequency and trend in such events is often overstated. A wave of misinformation about mass shootings in schools is circulating in the wake of the massacre at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida. That awful day notwithstanding, the so-called epidemic of mass shootings underway in American schools is a fiction. Criminology professor James Alan Fox provides an illuminating discussion of statistics on school shootings since 1990:

“Since 1990, there have been 22 shootings at elementary and secondary schools in which two or more people were killed, not counting those perpetrators who committed suicide. … Whereas five of these incidents have occurred over the past five-plus years since 2013, claiming the lives of 27 victims (17 at Parkland), the latter half of the 1990s witnessed seven multiple-fatality shootings with a total of 33 killed (13 at Columbine).“

But what about reports that there have been 290 school shootings over the past five years? Fox addresses that claim:

“Nearly half of the 290 were completed or attempted suicides, accidental discharges of a gun, or shootings with not a single individual being injured. Of the remainder, the vast majority involved either one fatality or none at all.“

Some of the gun fatalities in schools are drug- and/or gang-related. I have written about the destructive effects of drug prohibition before, and school shootings are a dimension of that problem. The drug war has done much to keep the overall homicide rate elevated in the U.S. Suicides, in-school or not, are relatively insensitive to the availability of guns, as international data show.

Any shooting of an innocent should be mourned, particularly when it is a child. But there are many dangers in the modern world that loom larger than school shootings, once they are reported accurately. Fox notes the following:

“Over the past quarter-century, on average [of] about 10 students are slain in school shootings annually. ... Compare the school fatality rate with the more than 100 school-age children accidentally killed each year riding their bikes or walking to school. Congress might be too timid to pass gun legislation to protect children, but how about a national bicycle helmet law for minors? Half of the states do not require them.“

Anyone close to a victim can be forgiven for calls to action they might make in the midst of their grief. However, it’s wise to keep a proper perspective on events before rushing to legislate policy changes. The frequency and trend in mass shootings at schools has been greatly exaggerated, and largely in service to a political agenda. The news media does a disservice to the public by propagating this lie (and it is not the only falsehood in circulation). It would be appropriate to call it “fake news” and dispense with the false sense of urgency it creates in the debate. Reducing the risk of school shootings is an important objective, but let’s not distort the magnitude of the risk.

Gun Laws and Homicides: No Correlation, Let Alone Causality

09 Friday Oct 2015

Posted by pnuetz in Gun Control

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Brady Scores, Causality, Defensive Gun Uses, Eugene Volokh, Gun Control, Gun Law Effects, Volokh Conspiracy

President Obama’s blustery, anti-gun outburst in the immediate aftermath of the recent shootings in Oregon included an assertion that states with the toughest gun laws have the lowest homicide rates. Eugene Volokh rebuts that claim in the Washington Post in “Zero correlation between state homicide rate and state gun laws“. Volokh’s effort prompts this quick follow-up to a post from earlier this week here on SCC: “But They Mean Well: Authoritarian, Anti-Gun Champs of Inefficacy“.

Volokh constructs a small data set for the 50 states and D.C with 2013 “Brady Scores” on gun laws, intentional homicide rates and accidental gun deaths. He discusses various measures that might be used to test the “Obama gun-law hypothesis”. Volokh rejects gun homicides because differences across states can be offset by other kinds of homicides. In addition, gun homicides may be reduced by defensive gun uses (DGUs) or the threat of DGUs. Instead, Volokh uses total homicides in one experiment and total homicides plus accidental gun deaths in another. He finds small positive correlations between tougher gun laws and both measures — a near zero association.

Volokh’s study is “quick and dirty”, so to speak, and it runs counter to the findings of some earlier cross-sectional studies. However, there are many factors that may confound any empirical association between gun laws, gun ownership rates, total guns and outcomes. That’s why other researchers insist that the question of gun-law efficacy must be assessed based on changes in outcome measures occurring after a change in gun law. These comparisons consistently show that imposition of tougher gun restrictions is not associated with declines in homicides.

But They Mean Well: Authoritarian, Anti-Gun Champs of Inefficacy

07 Wednesday Oct 2015

Posted by pnuetz in Gun Control

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Common-Sense Gun Laws, Damon Root, FBI Uniform Crime Report, Glenn Reynolds, Gun Control, Gun violence, Individual Right to Bear Arms, Lawrence Tribe, Magical Thinking, Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America, Ordinary Constitutional Law, Sanford Levinson, Second Amendment, Sheldon Richman

How would “common-sense gun laws” reduce the incidence of mass shootings, total homicides or gun violence in general? Many believe it to be true, but convincing explanations are hard to come by. That’s because reasoned thinking does not produce those explanations. Nevertheless, words are cheap, and the sheer flow of weak memes and bad journalism appears to wash the brains of those with a vulnerability to gun hysteria. Sheldon Richman addresses the feeble logic of gun control proposals in the wake of last week’s tragic shootings in Oregon. He states flatly that the claims of gun control advocates rely on “magical thinking”, and that “common sense” supports other policies. (Richman is quite a guy, having been featured in two consecutive posts on this blog).

As a preface, the recent FBI Uniform Crime Report for 2014 shows another in a long series of reductions in homicides and gun violence. This has occurred despite a trend of rising gun ownership. Previous posts on Sacred Cow Chips have dealt with the evidence on gun violence and the efficacy of gun control measures, including “A Farewell To Firearms Control“, “Causal Confusion In The Gun Debate“, and “When Government Prohibits Self Defense“. Among other issues, these posts note the overwhelming evidence that defensive gun uses far outweigh gun homicides.

Advocates of stricter gun control measures assert that they would somehow reduce the frequency of mass shootings. Richman picks apart the claim that universal background checks would help. In fact, it’s clear from the circumstances that additional restrictions on the sale of guns would not have prevented any of the high-profile mass shootings in recent memory, including New Town, Charleston and Roseburg. Some of those killers passed background checks. Furthermore, more restrictions on gun sales would do nothing to prevent illegal trade in guns.

“We can have no reasonable expectation that people who intend to commit violent offenses against others will be deterred by mere restrictions on gun purchases and possession. Stubbornly ignoring that self-evident truth is the sign of a magical disposition.“

Hillary Clinton proposes universal background checks, confiscation of weapons from domestic abusers and holding gun manufacturers and dealers liable for crimes perpetrated with weapons they made or sold. Those last two proposals are an affront to liberty, and the last is likely to be counterproductive by pricing low-income buyers out of the market, who are arguably most in need of guns for self-defense.

Richman ridicules the notion that gun violence can be reduced by devoting more resources to mental health care. I don’t agree with him 100% on this — improved mental health care might have a small effect — but he argues the point effectively. It is difficult to see how any reasonable initiative in this area could have more than a minor impact on gun violence, and by that I mean an initiative that respects individual liberty. Proponents might imagine lovely rest homes and caring personal psychiatric consultations for those identified as psychotic, along with lots of nice drugs. Perhaps they’ll get the drugs, but as often articulated, the concept smacks too much of a “lock ’em up” mentality. The accuracy with which murderers can be properly diagnosed will be close to zero, and it may cost some of the eccentric among us dearly. Richman asks facetiously whether the police should form “pre-crime” units.

As an aside, I must make note of the gun control “meme-of-the-day”: for me, it was one from “Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America“. It suggested that guns should be regulated just as motor vehicles are regulated, including a requirement for liability insurance coverage. The comparison is laughable. The creation of public thoroughfares allows the state to assert that driving is a privilege, not a constitutional right. However, the individual right to bear arms is firmly protected by the Second Amendment and has been upheld by the Supreme Court as recently as 2008. It is not a privilege granted by the state. Moreover, how would one define an “insurable” gun death? Those would be accidents, which are quite small in number relative to motor vehicle deaths. It would not include suicides. Most gun incidents involve criminals who will not bother to arrange insurance coverage. Only the law-abiding will do so, and their insurers will have to grapple with the difficulty of handling claims against defensive gun users. Guns are much easier to hide than cars, so effective enforcement doesn’t stand a chance; nor do annual inspections. The expense and abridgment of personal liberty inherent in this proposal would be massive, with little if any effect on gun violence.

I’d be remiss if I failed to mention Damon Root’s excellent article on the Second Amendment. As noted above, it protects the individual right to bear arms, not merely our right as a collective. As Glenn Reynolds has written, the Second Amendment should be viewed as “ordinary constitutional law“. Root emphasizes the extent to which prominent legal minds on the Left have concluded the same. He quotes Sanford Levinson (among others such as Lawrence Tribe):

“The embarrassment, Levinson argued, came from the legal left’s refusal to take the Second Amendment seriously. ‘I cannot help but suspect that the best explanation for the absence of the Second Amendment from the legal consciousness of the elite bar,’ he wrote, ‘is derived from a mixture of sheer opposition to the idea of private ownership of guns and the perhaps subconscious fear that altogether plausible, and perhaps even ‘winning’ interpretations would present real hurdles to those of us supporting prohibitory regulation.’“

If the usual gun control proposals won’t work, what can be done to reduce mass shootings and gun victimhood in general? Richman discusses the elimination of “gun-free zones” and rebuts the typical objections to doing so. (He is critical of police, who surely deserve blame for certain gun deaths, but Richman may have an inadequate appreciation for the difficulty of police work.) Richman also promotes ending restrictions on concealed and open-carry of handguns. Here is part of his closing, but read the whole thing:

“Believers in gun-control magic refuse to acknowledge that one cannot effectively delegate one’s right to or responsibility for self-defense. With enough money, one might arrange for assistance in self-defense, but few will be able to afford protection 24/7. … The only defender guaranteed to be present at any attack against you is: you.

Those who believe in the right to bear arms have common sense on their side in the matter of ending mass shootings. Magic won’t do it.“

A Farewell To Firearms Control

30 Sunday Aug 2015

Posted by pnuetz in Gun Control

≈ 4 Comments

Tags

Background checks, Civilian gun ownership, Crime Prevention Research Center, Defensive Gun Uses, Gun Control, Gun violence epidemic, gunfacts.org, Homicide rates, John Lott, John Stossel, Mass Shootings, Vox

Whatever you might think of gun rights, one should expect at least honest treatment of the issue from public officials like the President of the United States, not outright lies about the facts:

“... at some point, we as a country have to reckon with the fact that this type of mass violence does not happen in other advanced countries.“

Oh, yes it does! Mass shootings occur in many countries, though they remain statistically rare here and abroad. (Also see here and here.)

Mr. Obama wants to “... reduce the broader epidemic of gun violence in this country.”

But there is no gun violence epidemic! The rate of gun deaths in the U.S. is about half its rate of 20 years ago.

In the wake of the shooting of two TV journalists in Roanoke, VA this past week, a new spate of anti-gun memes has appeared. Some have used a collection of illustrations in Vox as a source, most of which suffer from conceptual problems discussed in this report by the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC): “Comparing Murder Rates and Gun Ownership Across Countries“. These issues are summarized below:

Homicides are not measured consistently across countries: For example, England counts only homicides for which there is a conviction, artificially deflating the number of homicides. In the U.S., homicides are counted even if there is no arrest. Counting only arrests would cut the reported U.S. murder rate by more than half. Counting only convictions would cut the rate still more.
A related issue is the number of defensive gun uses (DGUs — two posts that deal with DGUs and other topics related to gun violence appear at the link). DGUs are often non-fatal, but they undoubtedly increase the count of homicides in the U.S. That won’t hold in countries where official reporting of homicides differs. Here is John Stossel on the topic of DGUs:

“Often those guns are used to prevent crime. The homeowner pulls out the gun and the attacker flees. No one knows how often this happens because these prevented crimes don’t become news and don’t get reported to the government, but an estimate from the Violence Policy Center suggests crimes may be prevented by guns tens of thousands of times per year.”

Cross-country differences in gun homicides may not be reflected in total homicides because a percentage of the gun incidents would occur whether or not the perpetrator had access to a gun. Moreover, a number of countries with high total homicide rates do not report gun homicides.
“Mass shootings” can be defined in a variety of ways. Should they include acts of terrorism? Should they include only incidents involving a single shooter? Should they include gang shootouts? Should they include only incidents that occur “in public”? Should they include only incidents involving a death? Some implications of these definitional differences can be found here.
Comparing “civilian gun ownership” across countries can distort conclusions. Countries like Switzerland and Israel allow citizens to keep guns issued by the military in their homes, which reduces their official tallies. Both countries, like a number of others, have high rates of gun possession but very low firearm homicide rates.
The number of guns per capital is misleading because a relatively small number of individuals or households own multiple guns. Gun ownership rates are probably better for addressing the question of access to guns.
Comparing gun ownership across “civilized” countries introduces an arbitrary element, because there is no widely-accepted definition of “civilized”. Developed countries, as defined by the OECD, represents a better standard. Among developed countries, more gun ownership is associated with lower homicide rates.
Cross-sectional data may be confounded by endogenous influences. For example, high crime leads to more homicides and to more DGUs, which inflates homicides based on the U.S. definition. Or, high crime and homicides might lead local governments to impose strict gun control laws. But do those laws lead to even more homicides? Controlling for confounding influences is difficult, but it is possible to address causality based on responses to significant events, such as changes in gun control laws.

Gun control advocates maintain that guns lead to violence, and that limiting access to firearms would reduce the number of violent homicides and deaths. There is much evidence to the contrary. For example, homicide rates have tended to increase after gun bans go into effect. That is true in both the U.S. and internationally. The experiences of Chicago and DC, mentioned at the last link, are instructive. The CPRC recently reported that murder rates have declined even as the number of concealed carry permits has soared over the past 15 years. And it is unlikely that stronger background checks would have made any difference in several high-profile mass shootings, including Sandy Hook and the one last week in Roanoke.

I maintain that gun control measures are more likely to give the appearance of effectiveness in the context of a history and culture of limited gun ownership. However, where gun ownership is historically extensive and deeply embedded in the culture, gun control measures may be counter-productive. Criminals can acquire guns on the black market, but bans prevent law-abiding citizens from using guns to defend themselves and undermine the prevention of gun violence.

Better to reform unproductive laws that criminalize harmless behavior, such as the drug trade and prostitution. Prohibitions create profit opportunities in underground activity and often lead to gangland violence. And it is better to reform laws and social policies that discourage or eliminate opportunities for legal work, such as many welfare programs and the minimum wage.

Fortunately, gun control is going nowhere politically. Gun ownership among the law abiding continues to grow, and most voters support Second Amendment rights, especially when security is tenuous. Smart Democrats know that gun control is a losing proposition for them, even if their left flank remains enamored with the idea. That’s a very good thing.

Causal Confusion In The Gun Debate

18 Wednesday Mar 2015

Posted by pnuetz in Gun Control, Uncategorized

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Black Market Activity, Defensive Gun Uses, Demographics of Homicide, Federalism, Gun Control, Homicide rates, Lead and Homicide, Mass Shootings, Prohibition, Spousal Homicide, Suicide rates

As a follow up to my recent post on defensive gun uses (DGUs), I think it’s appropriate to discuss international comparisons sometimes cited in support of the anti-gun rights agenda.This was prompted by correspondence from a fellow blogger, to whom I’ll refer as HH, who followed up with a post featuring some international data. I respect HH’s effort to collect the data and to present it with some eloquence, and with a little less rancor than the original correspondence. Nevertheless, the international comparisons are not as straightforward as HH would like to believe.

Let me state at the outset that I am not a big “gun guy”. I support individual liberty and a minimal state apparatus in general, along with gun rights, but I am not affiliated in any way with the NRA or any other pro-gun organization. As I told my well-armed older brother, he would not be impressed with my weaponry. I still keep a nasty, old fireplace iron under my bed. And I have a few rocks in my backyard.

HH believes that the high U.S. homicide rate relative to the handful of other developed countries he mentions (along with India) proves that “gun control works”. I differ for several reasons discussed below.

Causality and Gun Control: HH’s conclusion brings into focus two different aspects of the gun control question. The first is whether a change to more restrictive gun control leads to a reduction in homicides. That is not as obvious an outcome as HH thinks. For example, a gun ban cannot eliminate all guns, especially within limited jurisdictions. (Perhaps the federalist approach is partly why HH considers our gun laws “a mess”, but federalism is a feature of our system, not a bug, not least if it discourages local politicians from enacting ineffective rules.) Black market traffic in guns is likely to be sufficiently profitable to justify the legal risks in the presence of a ban. And the empirical evidence as to whether more stringent gun control reduces homicides is mixed at best (see here, here, here and here).

The empirical evidence presented by HH is not related to changes in gun laws (except for one or two suspect assertions about mass shootings). Instead, cross-country comparisons of homicide rates are given along with a single correlate: “gun laws”. The one data point driving the presumed direction of causality is the U.S., which has lenient gun laws and a high homicide rate relative to the four other countries (five if we include the U.K., from whence HH hails). The comparisons are made with no controls for the history of gun rights and ownership, demographics, other prohibitions, or any other confounding influences. For HH, it’s all because of guns.

Mass Shootings: HH spends some of the post discussing this phenomenon, which is rare albeit horrifying. Mass shootings account for very few of U.S. homicides, and there has been no discernible upward trend in the U.S. (see here, here and here). Moreover, multiple victim shootings are just as common in Europe as they are in the U.S. They usually prompt calls for bans on arbitrarily-defined “assault weapons”, but the bans do little to prevent such tragedies.

Historical Background: Guns owned by private individuals played an important role in the American revolution. In fact, early British attempts to confiscate weapons led to an increase in the hostilities leading up to the war. The Second Amendment of the U.S. Constitution was intended to protect individual gun rights and to protect the nation from future tyrants.

The homicide rate has declined steadily in the U.S. over the past three hundred years, from estimates of more than 30 per 100,000 people in the early 1700s to less than five today. A similar pattern occurred in other parts of the world, but after 1850, the decline in the U.S. failed to keep pace with declines in Europe.

Private guns were integral to westward expansion in the U.S. Leaving aside the tragic consequences for Native Americans, the scramble for resources and the under-developed legal system in the west undoubtedly contributed to homicides. At the same time, the need of settlers to defend life and property in an insecure environment made gun ownership (and DGUs) a necessity. This history and the generally high value placed by Americans on individual rights set the tone for today’s generally permissive attitude toward gun ownership in the U.S.

Alcohol, Drug Prohibition and Homicide: The temporary lows in the homicide rate prior to the 1910s “may have been illusory“, according to this abstract, because many homicides were reported as accidents in that time frame. More accurate reporting created the impression of a rising homicide rate during the 1910s. Alcohol prohibition began in 1920 and contributed to an increase in U.S. homicides until after repeal. Likewise, later in the twentieth century, the drug war, together with a bulge in the youth population, contributed to an even larger increase in the homicide rate. It is interesting that this increase was accompanied by an apparent decrease in the rate of spousal homicide. (A curious aside: one analyst has noted the strong correlation between homicide rates in the U.S. and fluctuations in the use of lead-based paints and leaded gasoline.)

Illegal drugs are just one area of black market activity in which the U.S. is a world leader. The connection between heavier underworld and gang activity and prevalent restrictions on victimless, individual behavior, on the one hand, and homicide rates on the other, helps explain the elevated U.S. homicide rate. The existence of this link is supported by an extremely strong concentration of homicides within specific social networks.

Demographics: The interaction of legal restrictions on behavior and weak economic circumstances is undoubtedly a factor contributing to high homicide rates. It is striking that U.S. homicides are so heavily concentrated within the African American community. The relative lack of legal economic opportunities within the African American community may be connected to greater illegal trade and homicides. Homicide rates are also somewhat elevated among U.S. Hispanics and Native Americans. Among the White and Asian segments of the U.S. population, homicide rates are comparable to those of Europe (and well under India’s rate).

Suicides: My antipathy for anti-gun arguments is probably softest with respect to gun suicides. Guns are certainly “weapons of convenience”, easily transported, fast and highly effective. Within the U.S., there is some evidence that gun ownership and total suicides are positively correlated, despite a negative correlation with non-gun suicides. However, total suicide rates in the U.S. and U.K. are similar. The rates in France and especially Japan are higher, while the rates in Denmark and India are lower. Moreover, suicide is symptomatic of larger social problems that have little to do with gun rights. Our inability as a society to deal effectively with mental health issues probably has much more to do with suicide and homicide rates than gun ownership.

Summary: There are many reasons to discount international comparisons of homicide rates and regulation of firearms. The comparisons often neglect measurement issues, but more importantly, strong conclusions about the efficacy of gun control from such top-line comparisons are often drawn without carefully addressing the question of causality between changes in gun laws and changes in homicide rates. The comparisons also fail to consider variations in the larger historical and legal context within which gun ownership occurs. For a large society like the U.S., there are vast differences in sub-groups that usually reflect other social problems, some of which are created by intrusive government itself.

I close below with some thoughts on HH’s criticism of my original post on DGUs.

DGU Denialism: HH’s objections to my post on DGUs were based on a belief that I: 1) quoted misleading statistics on gun violence in the U.S.; 2) engaged in scaremongering (apparently by quoting a wide range of estimates of DGUs); and 3) used a headline (“When Government Prohibits Self-Defense”) demonstrating a wildly paranoid view of the intent of the U.S. government.

The statistics on gun violence I cited in that post came from the U.S. Department of Justice and The Law Center To Prevent Gun Violence, which are hardly representative of the gun lobby. By providing information on gun homicides, suicides, accidents and nonfatal wounds presented in emergency rooms, I was seeking to provide a fairly comprehensive list of the “downsides” of guns in the U.S. I thought that was only fair as a way to lend perspective on estimates of DGUs. The statistics on gun violence vary from year-to-year, of course, and even the homicide numbers vary across different “official” sources for a given year (the example given at the link is total homicides). For these reasons, my initial intent was to quote ranges. However, not all of the data were available over multiple years from my original sources. Some of the figures were simply DOJ “estimates”. And apparently, my searches did not turn up the most recent data available (most of the figures I quoted were either 2010 or from 2005 – 2010). Well, mea culpa, mea culpa. My range for gun homicides of 10-12 thousand per annum was off, according to HH: it was actually 9 thousand! So, my range should have been broader in view of the continuing decline in gun homicides in the U.S., but I’m heartened to know that they were lower than I thought.

As for DGU’s, it is undeniable that they are a real phenomenon, though HH seems apoplectic that anyone would dare to discuss them. They obviously happen, though no one claims “there is always a good guy with a gun“. In fact, homicide statistics often exclude deaths from DGU’s and police shootings. (In the U.K., apparently one has to be found guilty of a murder for it to be counted as a homicide.)

Since any proposal to limit firearms would be more successful in disarming the law-abiding population than miscreants, it is reasonable to ask whether DGUs would decline more than non-justifiable homicides. Moreover, the low end of the range of DGU estimates I quoted came from DGU skeptics. In any case, I don’t think the following statements qualify me as a “scaremonger”:

“Estimates range from under 100 thousand per year to more than 2.5 million. There are reasons to doubt both of the extremes. … Given this range of estimates, it would be conservative to hedge toward the lower end. ”

Finally, the headline: Now, I like a punchy headline, and I’ll bet HH does too. I also believe that the ultimate goal of the statist anti-gun lobby is to outlaw private firearms. Again, such a policy would have the largest impact on gun possession among the law-abiding population; the headline was meant to convey the consequences of doing so.

When Government Prohibits Self Defense

13 Friday Mar 2015

Posted by pnuetz in Uncategorized

≈ 5 Comments

Tags

CATO Institute, Defensive Gun Uses, Gun Control, Reason, Second Amendment

The Obama Administration is dropping a proposed ban on a certain kind of AR-15 ammunition after the ATF was deluged with negative comments. Gun rights supporters asserted that the ban, to be accomplished by administrative fiat, would have constituted a form of “back-door” gun control. There is no doubt that the “right to keep and bear arms” would be compromised by piecemeal bans on various types of ammo. In this case, the rationale for the proposal was that the “green-tip” ammo in question was said to be armor-piercing and therefore a greater threat to law enforcement. A spokesman for the Fraternal Order of Police says that the ammo in question “has historically not posed a law enforcement problem“. Moreover, the Law Enforcement Officers Protection Act of 1986, which banned armor-piercing bullets, specifically exempted the green-tip ammo and other types of rifle ammo because they did not meet “either part of the two-part definition of ‘armor-piercing’“.

Gun control advocates have little sympathy for broad interpretations of second amendment rights granted by the U.S. Constitution. The amendment reads:

“A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed.”

A statist interpretation of this sentence puts “the people”, and more specifically individuals, in a subservient position to the “militia” and ultimately the government. However, we know that the Constitution was intended as a device to limit the power of the federal government and protect individual rights. This is what Glenn Reynolds means by “ordinary constitutional law“. As he notes, “… individual citizens’ lives and autonomy are themselves, in some important aspects, beyond the power of the state to sacrifice.” The right of self-defense, and to bear arms, was part of English common law and was certainly an important issue in the times of the founders, and it is still important today.

Beyond the legal interpretations, an empirical and philosophical debate rages over whether gun violence, including homocides, accidents and suicides, and gun crimes in general, can be weighed against crimes prevented by so-called defensive gun uses (DGUs). Not that DGUs are the end of the pro-gun rights story: private gun ownership in society carries with it an enormous deterrent value against criminality, but that is obviously difficult to quantify.

As a baseline, the annual number of gun deaths in the U.S. is known with a fairly high degree of accuracy. The number of non-justifiable gun homocides each year is roughly 10- 12 thousand (see p. 27 of this publication from the DOJ). The number of accidental gun deaths is typically less than 1 thousand per year (see here for this and the following statistics). About 18-20 thousand gun suicides occur each year, though some of these would have occurred by other means if a gun had not been available. Together, roughly 29-33 thousand gun deaths occur annually in the U.S. Again, some of these deaths would have occurred with or without guns. In addition, in 2010, there were 73,505 non-fatal gunshot wounds treated in emergency rooms. And crime victimization with firearms should be defined more broadly. While the following would double count the deaths cited above, the DOJ reports an annual average of about 250 thousand victimizations involving strangers with guns, and roughly 170 thousand involving known individuals with guns. Also, the DOJ estimates that each year, there are an average of about 180 thousand unreported incidents of victimization involving guns.

These are daunting numbers, but again, some of these incidents would have occurred in the absence of guns. Note as well that violent crime rates have been in decline over most of the past 25 years, including gun crime.

DGUs are phenomena that occur with greater frequency than gun opponents care to admit. DGUs include the actual discharge of a gun in self-defense or merely brandishing or threatening the use of a gun. Estimates range from under 100 thousand per year to more than 2.5 million. There are reasons to doubt both of the extremes. This article by Brian Doherty in Reason and this paper from The CATO Institute do a good job of explaining some of the controversies surrounding measurement of DGUs. The high-end estimates and some of the low-end estimates come from survey data, but the reliability of both can be called into question. Police reports and media coverage have been used as well, but these are certain to undercount the actual number of DGU incidents, especially for cases in which no shots are fired.

Given this range of estimates, it would be conservative to hedge toward the lower end. One researcher attempted to reconcile the gap in 1997, but he did so with the use of some very rough discounting and gross-up factors that brought the range of annual DGUs up to 256-373 thousand at the low end, and down to 1.2 million at the high end. And while it would be simplistic to assert that these estimates, in any absolute sense, outweigh those given above for gun violence, the DGU estimates are certainly nontrivial by comparison. Again, there is no way to estimate of the value of the general deterrent against violent crime provided by legal gun ownership, but it must be considered to reinforce the DGU side of the ledger.

Case studies cover a variety of crimes prevented by DGUs. But even if you subscribe to the low-end estimates of DGUs, Brian Doherty points out that the statistics are irrelevant to those who have had to defend themselves with guns:

“Those people who lived out the stories in any case study collection of newspaper or police reports of DGUs would doubtless find it curious to hear they shouldn’t have had the right to defend themselves, because an insufficiently impressive number of other citizens had done the same. But underestimating the significance of what’s at stake in Second Amendment rights—even though it can clearly be life itself, not to mention dignity—is a favorite pastime of gun controllers and their ideological soldiers.”

Finally, to pretend that any form of prohibition can be successful in stamping out objectionable activity is foolhardy. That lesson is offered by the drug war, alcohol prohibition, prostitution laws, and many other misguided attempts to control behavior. The same is even true of laws upon which there is broad consensus. However, there is a difference when government attempts to prohibit victimless behavior. And the difference is more pernicious when government prohibits tools with which citizens can defend themselves against victimhood.

While outright prohibition exceeds the extent of most serious gun control proposals, prohibition is the ultimate goal of anti-gun activists. Laws against gun ownership do not eliminate guns, but they do hinder the possession of guns and self-defense by law-abiding citizens.

Second Amendment as Ordinary Constitutional Law

13 Sunday Apr 2014

Posted by pnuetz in Uncategorized

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Glenn Reynolds, Gun Control, Second Amendment

That little dog is sure to increase the popularity of this post! Here’s the abstract and free download link to a Glenn Reynolds article in the Tennessee Law Review. He provides an interesting history of judicial interpretation of the second amendment and its now widespread interpretation as conferring an individual right of self-defense. One nice passage: “This indicates that individual citizens’ lives and autonomy are themselves, in some important aspects, beyond the power of the state to sacrifice. Does that have implications for other, unenumerated rights? It just might.” He also covers the racial underpinnings of some historical gun control initiatives.