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The Futility and Falsehoods of Climate Heroics

01 Tuesday Jun 2021

Posted by pnoetx in Climate science, Environmental Fascism, Global Warming, Uncategorized

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Atmospheric Carbon, Biden Administration, Carbon forcing, Carbon Mitigation, Climate Change, Climate Sensitivity, ExxonMobil, Fossil fuels, global warming, Green Energy, Greenhouse Gas, IPPC, John Kerry, Judith Curry, Natural Gas, Netherlands Climate Act, Nic Lewis, Nuclear power, Putty-Clay Technology, Renewables, Ross McKitrick, Royal Dutch Shell, Social Cost of Carbon, William Nordhaus

The world’s gone far astray in attempts to battle climate change through forced reductions in carbon emissions. Last Wednesday, in an outrageously stupid ruling,a Dutch court ordered Royal Dutch Shell to reduce its emissions by 45% by 2030 relative to 2019 levels. It has nothing to do with Shell’s historical record on the environment. Rather, the Court said Shell’s existing climate action plans did not meet “the company’s own responsibility for achieving a CO2 reduction.” The decision will be appealed, but it appears that “industry agreements” under the Netherlands’ Climate Act of 2019 are in dispute.

Later that same day, a shareholder dissident group supporting corporate action on climate change won at least two ExxonMobil board seats. And then we have the story of John Kerry’s effort to stop major banks from lending to the fossil fuel industry. Together with the Biden Administration’s other actions on energy policy, we are witnessing the greatest attack on conventional power sources in history, and we’ll all pay dearly for it. 

The Central Planner’s Conceit

Technological advance is a great thing, and we’ve seen it in the development of safe nuclear power generation, but the environmental left has successfully placed roadblocks in the way of its deployment. Instead, they favor the mandated adoption of what amount to beta versions of technologies that might never be economic and create extreme environmental hazards of their own (see here, here, here, and here). To private adopters, green energy installations are often subsidized by the government, disguising their underlying inefficiencies. These premature beta versions are then embedded in our base of productive capital and often remain even as they are made obsolete by subsequent advances. The “putty-clay” nature of technology decisions should caution us against premature adoptions of this kind. This is just one of the many curses of central planning.

Not only have our leftist planners forced the deployment of inferior technologies: they are actively seeking to bring more viable alternatives to ruination. I mentioned nuclear power and even natural gas offer a path for reducing carbon emissions, yet climate alarmists wage war against it as much as other fossil fuels. We have Kerry’s plot to deny funding for the fossil fuel industry and even activist “woke” investors, attempting to override management expertise and divert internal resources to green energy. It’s not as if renewable energy sources are not already part of these energy firms’ development portfolios. Allocations of capital and staff to these projects are usually dependent upon a company’s professional and technical expertise, market forces, and (less propitiously) incentives decreed by the government. Yet, the activist investors are there to impose their will.

Placing Faith and Fate In Models

All these attempts to remake our energy complex and the economy are based on the presumed external costs associated with carbon emissions. Those costs, and the potential savings achievable through the mitigation efforts of government and private greenies around the globe, have been wildly exaggerated.

The first thing to understand about the climate “science” relied upon by the environmental left is that it is almost exclusively model-dependent. In other words, it is based on mathematical relationships specified by the researchers. Their projections depend on those specs, the selection of parameter values, and the scenarios to which they are subjected. The models are usually calibrated to be roughly consistent with outcomes over some historical time period, but as modelers in almost any field can attest, that is not hard to do. It’s still possible to produce extreme results out-of-sample. The point is that these models are generally not estimated statistically from a lengthy sample of historical data. Even when sound statistical methodologies are employed, the samples are blinkingly short on climatological timescales. That means they are highly sample-specific and likely to propagate large errors out-of-sample. But most of these are what might be called “toy models” specified by the researcher. And what are often billed as “findings” are merely projections based on scenarios that are themselves manufactured by imaginative climate “researchers” cum grant-seeking partisans. In fact, it’s much worse than that because even historical climate data is subject to manipulation, but that’s a topic for another day.

Key Assumptions

What follows are basic components of the climate apocalypse narrative as supported by “the science” of man-made or anthropomorphic global warming (AGW):

(A) The first kind of model output to consider is the increase in atmospheric carbon concentration over time, measured in parts per million (PPM). This is a function of many natural processes, including volcanism and other kinds of outgassing from oceans and decomposing biomass, as well absorption by carbon sinks like vegetation and various geological materials. But the primary focus is human carbon generating activity, which depends on the carbon-intensity of production technology. As Ross McKitrick shows (see chart below), projections from these kinds of models have demonstrated significant upside bias over the years. Whether that is because of slower than expected economic growth, unexpected technological efficiencies, an increase in the service-orientation of economic activity worldwide, or feedback from carbon-induced greening or other processes, most of the models have over-predicted atmospheric carbon PPM. Those errors tend to increase with the passage of time, of course.

(B) Most of the models promoted by climate alarmists are carbon forcing models, meaning that carbon emissions are the primary driver of global temperatures and other phenomena like storm strength and increases in sea level. With increases in carbon concentration predicted by the models in (A) above, the next stage of models predicts that temperatures must rise. But the models tend to run “hot.” This chart shows the mean of several prominent global temperature series contrasted with 1990 projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The following is even more revealing, as it shows the dispersion of various model runs relative to three different global temperature series:

And here’s another, which is a more “stylized” view, showing ranges of predictions. The gaps show errors of fairly large magnitude relative to the mean trend of actual temperatures of 0.11 degrees Celsius per decade.

(C) Climate sensitivity to “radiative forcing” is a key assumption underlying all of the forecasts of AGW. A simple explanation is that a stronger greenhouse effect, and increases in the atmosphere’s carbon concentration, cause more solar energy to be “trapped” within our “greenhouse,” and less is radiated back into space. Climate sensitivity is usually measured in degrees Celsius relative to a doubling of atmospheric carbon. 

And how large is the climate’s sensitivity to a doubling of carbon PPM? The IPCC says it’s in a range of 1.5C to 4.5C. However, findings published by Nic Lewis and Judith Curry are close to the low end of that range, and are those found by the author of the paper described here. 

In separate efforts, Finnish and Japanese researchers have asserted that the primary cause of recent warming is an increase in low cloud cover, which the Japanese team attributes to increases in the Earth’s bombardment by cosmic rays due to a weakening magnetic field. The Finnish authors note that most of the models used by the climate establishment ignore cloud formation, an omission they believe leads to a massive overstatement (10x) of sensitivity to carbon forcings. Furthermore, they assert that carbon forcings are mainly attributable to ocean discharge as opposed to human activity.

(D) Estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) per ton of emissions are used as a rationale for carbon abatement efforts. The SCC was pioneered by economist William Nordhaus in the 1990s, and today there are a number of prominent models that produce distributions of possible SCC values, which tend to have high dispersion and extremely long upper tails. Of course, the highest estimates are driven by the same assumptions about extreme climate sensitivities discussed above. The Biden Administration is using an SCC of $51 per ton. Some recommend the adoption of even higher values for regulatory purposes in order to achieve net-zero emissions at an early date, revealing the manipulative purposes to which the SCC concept is put. This is a raw attempt to usurp economic power, not any sort of exercise in optimization, as this admission from a “climate expert” shows. In the midst of a barrage of false climate propaganda (hurricanes! wildfires!), he tells 60 Minutes that an acceptable limit on warming of 1.5C is just a number they “chose” as a “tipping point.”

As a measurement exercise, more realistic climate sensitivities yield much lower SCCs. McKitrick presents a chart from Lewis-Curry comparing their estimates of the SCC at lower climate sensitivities to an average of earlier estimates used by IPCC:

High levels of the SCC are used as a rationale for high-cost carbon abatement efforts. If the SCC is overstated, however, then costly abatements represent waste. And there is no guarantee that spending an amount on abatements equal to the SCC will eliminate the presumed cost of a ton’s worth of anthropomorphic warming. Again, there are strong reasons to believe that the warming experienced over the past several decades has had multiple causes, and human carbon emissions might have played a relatively minor role. 

Crisis Is King

Some people just aren’t happy unless they have a crisis over which to harangue the rest of us. But try as they might, the vast resources dedicated to carbon reduction are largely wasted. I hesitate to say their effort is quixotic because they want more windmills and are completely lacking in gallantry. As McKitrick notes, it takes many years for abatement to have a meaningful impact on carbon concentrations, and since emissions mix globally, unilateral efforts are practically worthless. Worse yet, the resource costs of abatement and lost economic growth are unacceptable, especially when some of the most promising alternative sources of “clean” energy are dismissed by activists. So we forego economic growth, rush to adopt immature energy alternatives, and make very little progress toward the stated goals of the climate alarmists.

A Land Under The Rule of Hillary

20 Thursday Oct 2016

Posted by pnoetx in Corruption

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Austin Bay, Benghazi, Claire McCaskill, Clinton Body Count, Clinton Enemies List, Clinton Foundation, Clinton Global Initiative, Clinton Presidential Library, Dinesh D'Souza, Donna Brazille, FBI Revolt, Friends of Bill, Haiti, Hillary Clinton, Influence Buying, Ira Magaziner, James Comey, Jennifer Palmieri, John Kerry, Jonathan Turley, Kimberley Strassel, Laureate International, Matt Lauer, Pay to Play, Private email Server, Qatar, Quid Pro Quo, Sam Stein, Snopes, Trey Gowdy, Uranium One, Walden University, Wikileaks, William Safire

crooked-hillary

I just had to laugh when I saw a progressive cite “the rule of law” as a compelling reason to vote for Hillary Clinton. First, while she might not be a policy clone of Barack Obama, you can bet that she’ll take a similarly dismissive view of Constitutional principles, subjugating our governing framework to her own brand of executive authority whenever and wherever possible. The rule of law hasn’t stopped the Clintons from proving their cronyist bona fides, using positions of power to reward friends, foundation contributors, and to accumulate personal wealth. The Clinton’s are inveterate liars, having misled the American public on numerous occasions, as well as Congress. In 1996, New York Times writer William Safire called Hillary Clinton a “congenital liar“. The Clinton’s are also vindictive: they have done their level best to destroy the reputations of various enemies over the years, and there is widespread suspicion that much dirtier deeds have been perpetrated in order to protect their interests.

Foundation of Graft

I quote here the opening paragraph of a July post on Sacred Cow Chips entitled “Clinton Foundation Domain of Darkness“:

“Hillary Clinton provides a fascinating case study in the art of graft, and the Clinton Foundation provides her with brilliant cover. The foundation masquerades as a legitimate charity, avoids taxes, and it provides a vehicle for what’s known as ‘pay-to-play’ influence-buying. It appears that Bill Clinton made a lucrative career of this while his wife was serving in public office. It was a sensitive issue when Hillary Clinton was Secretary of State, given the potential for compromising national objectives. It is still sensitive in view of the many gifts to the Clinton Foundation provided by foreign entities, not to mention the handsome speaking fees paid by foreign entities to the Clintons.“

Now we know, thanks to Wikileaks, that certain Clinton Foundation (CF) contributors and “Friends of Bill” (FOBs) were given priority access to Hillary Clinton and other senior State Department officials.

The next few paragraphs contain information described more fully at the first link above. The first point is the Clinton’s cozy relationship with Russian interests. CF accepted contributions from individuals hoping to arrange a large deal giving Uranium One, a Russian company, control of one-fifth of all uranium production capacity in the U.S., a deal that Hillary Clinton’s State Department had to approve. Sounds like pay-for-play to me!

Also noteworthy is the relationship between CF and Laureate International Universities and Walden University Online, which have been accused of scamming earnest students. CF received substantial donations from Laureate‘s chairman, and Bill Clinton received millions as honorary chancellor of Laureate. In turn, Laureate received millions in State Department grants.

The devastating earthquake that struck Haiti in 2010 provided another avenue through which the Clinton’s were able to enrich their cronies. The complicated web of relationships included CF ties to organizations that received State Department funding. Here is Dinesh D’Souza:

“… a number of companies that received contracts in Haiti happened to be entities that made large donations to the Clinton Foundation. The Haitian contracts appeared less tailored to the needs of Haiti than to the needs of the companies that were performing the services. In sum, Haitian deals appeared to be a quid pro quo for filling the coffers of the Clintons.“

Gifts from foreign governments to CF are clearly red flags of potential influence buying. Many of the donors were Middle Eastern governments eager to acquire weapons from the U.S.  Hillary Clinton’s State Department, once again, was in a position to help them. Via Wikileaks, we know that Clinton’s campaign has been accepting contributions from lobbyists representing these governments. The Huffington Post‘s Senior Politics Editor, Sam Stein, says that Qatar’s $1 million birthday gift to Bill Clinton “confirms sort of the worst portraits of the Clintons and how they operated out of office.” What other favors could a Clinton presidency make possible?

As a charity, CF performs poorly, with less than 6% of its 2014 spending going to actual charitable causes, contrary to Hillary Clinton’s claims that 90% went to charity. The last link provides the following quote from The Federalist regarding historical totals from CF:

“The Clinton Foundation’s three largest charitable ‘program service accomplishments,’ according to its tax reports, are the Clinton Global Initiative ($23.2 million), the Clinton Presidential Library ($12.3 million), and the Clinton Climate Initiative ($8.3 million).”

The article also quotes Ira Magaziner, once among the top executives at CF:

“This is not charity. The whole thing is bankable. It’s a commercial proposition.”

The Vengeful Touch

The Clinton’s have a reputation for being vindictive and for being fairly ruthless in dealing with those who cross them. Here is a story on a Clinton request to discredit Congressman Trey Gowdy, who was looking into her deleted emails:

“Jennifer Palmieri, director of communications for the 2016 Hillary Clinton campaign, wrote an e-mail to staff where she says, ‘HRC asked me what offense we could do today to set up Gowdy for Face The Nation tomorrow.’“

This story about a detailed list of Hillary Clinton’s enemies is instructive. Apparently, Claire McCaskill and John Kerry were at the top of the list after the 2008 presidential campaign.

Hillary is also known to be extremely ill-tempered. Check out this account of Hillary Clinton’s post-townhall tirade against moderator Matt Lauer, according to a female NBC producer and a cameraman. Hillary was enraged because Lauer had asked a pointed question about her private email server and her handling of classified documents, a question that did not appear on the pre-approved list provided to her in advance of the townhall. She threw a profanity-laced tantrum upon leaving the stage, according to these accounts. She promised to have Lauer fired threw a glass of water into the face of an assistant, and finally delivered an arguably racist insult to DNC Chair Donna Brazile’s face.

There are many accounts of Hillary Clinton’s abusive behavior toward staff, both at the White House during her tenure as First Lady and later at the State Department. Here is the latest, from an FBI summary of an interview with one of its own security officials:

“CLINTON’s treatment of the DS [diplomatic security] agents assigned to protect her was so contemptuous that many of them sought reassignment or employment elsewhere. …by the end of CLINTON’s tenure, [her protective detail] was staffed largely with new agents because it was difficult to find senior agents willing to work for her.”

The FBI’s summary of the interview also describes Clinton’s routine violation of standard security protocols.

It’s long been rumored that the Clinton’s have dealt quite harshly with enemies who pose legal threats. The number of mysterious deaths of individuals who were apparently dangerous to the Clintons could be a series of strange coincidences. However, the laws of probability don’t provide strong support for that theory. Perhaps many of the deceased individuals were involved in other dangerous activities, but that would not reflect well on the Clintons, either. There are web sites that keep track of the Clinton “body count”. Left-leaning sites such as Snopes.com routinely label that scorekeeping as pure speculation and false, but often do so even before investigations are complete. Three recent deaths, discussed here, involved individuals believed to have information damaging to the DNC and/or the Clintons.

Security and the Email Imbroglio

Hillary Clinton’s careless and criminal email practices should convince any American that she is unfit for the job of President. Her efforts to obstruct the investigation into those practices are nothing short of spectacular, and are themselves worthy of prosecution. It’s even more appalling and corrupt that she has Obama’s Justice Department and FBI Director James Comey in the tank, so prosecution is unlikely to proceed without extraordinary developments. Fortunately, Wikileaks and FOIA requests have uncovered some of the deleted emails. It’s also clear that the FBI is in a state of internal revolt over the questionable handling of the email investigation and Comey’s ultimate refusal to recommend prosecution. The revolt could lead to additional revelations having major consequences for Clinton, Comey and others inside the government.

Austin Bay condenses Clinton’s email scandal into a “Three-Headed Crime” and highlights the bastardized way in which Comey managed to compromise his agency:

  • The Server Head: the “rogue email server … that she controlled. … designed to evade laws regulating the retention of government documents and thus evade scrutiny and accountability.“
  • The Loose Lips Head: “Hillary used her off-the-books and non-secure server system to transmit and analyze classified national security information ….“
  • The Nixon Head: “Hillary and her aides tried to hide evidence the rogue server existed and evidence they routinely mishandled of classified information.“

The email scandal came to light as a result of the Administration’s response to the terrorist attack on an American diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya. Here is Bay:

“The House of Representatives began investigating the Benghazi attack and questioning the Obama Administration’s Great Benghazi Lie. Testimony wasn’t the only issue. The House had subpoena power. Providing inquisitive representatives and senators with Hillary’s Benghazi-related communications would expose the rogue email operation. Better start destroying evidence.“

Bay notes that even Jonathan Turley, who had originally defended Comey’s decision not to refer the email case for prosecution, changed his mind as more details came to light. Apparently, the revelation that the Justice Department gave “immunity to the parties on both ends of those communications” struck Turley as a tactic wholly unsuitable for a serious investigation. He doesn’t quite say that Comey or the DOJ were acting on Hillary’s behalf, but the case certainly gives that appearance.

The Press In Her Pocket

My attempt to get a fix on the suspicious history and current state of the Clinton’s and their gang of operatives relies, to some extent, on nontraditional news sources. The mainstream media is willing to ignore Hillary Clinton’s many transgressions, with almost no mention of the latest Wikileaks dumps, FBI document releases, and other documented Clinton indiscretions. Kimberley Strassel is correct in saying that this is in no small part Donald Trump’s fault, as he manages to create a circus of distractions on an almost daily basis. Here is her conclusion:

“Mrs. Clinton has been exposed to have no core, to be someone who constantly changes her position to maximize political gain. Leaked speeches prove that she has two positions (public and private) on banks; two positions on the wealthy; two positions on borders; two positions on energy. Her team had endless discussions about what positions she should adopt to appease ‘the Red Army’—i.e. ‘the base of the Democratic Party.’

Voters might not know any of this, because while both presidential candidates have plenty to answer for, the press has focused solely on taking out Mr. Trump. And the press is doing a diligent job of it.“

It’s ironic that the press takes so little interest in the Clinton misadventures. Or rather, the truth is that many in the press intentionally omit reporting of these issues. That helps to maintain a solid base of low-information voters in Hillary’s thrall, under the misapprehension that she has any respect for the rule of law.

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