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Grading Trump II, So Far

16 Monday Mar 2026

Posted by Nuetzel in Election, Politics

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Tags

Anthropic, central planning, CLARITY Act, Corporatism, DEI, DOGE, Donald Trump, entitlements, ESG, eVTOL, Fed Independence, GENIUS Act, Golden Share, Government Waste, Great Healthcare Plan, Industrial Policy, Jerome Powell, Jones Act, Kevin Warsh, Most Favored Nation Drug Pricing, Obamacare, One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Open AI, Pete Hegseth, Populism, ROAD To Housing Bill, Robert F. Kennedy Jr, SAVE America Act, Stargate, Tariff Dividend, TrumpRx.gov, Voter ID

I voted for Trump because I considered him to be far preferable to Kamala Harris across a range of issues. I still feel that way, but I’m appalled at a number of actions he’s taken and/or proposed in the 14 months since he took office. As a candidate, I gave Trump a “grade point average” of about 2.68, a solid C+. Here, I’ll grade him on most of the same categories, but I’ve made a few changes to the categories based on developments since his inauguration. My perspective here is generally domestic non-intervention and small government.

Yes, I realize this is tldr; I’m sure I elaborated more than necessary, but you can skip around and scroll to sections in which you might have greater interest. Here’s a list of topics:

  • Role of Government
  • Regulation
  • Border Policy
  • Antitrust
  • Foreign Policy
  • Trade
  • Taxes
  • Inflation
  • Federal Reserve Independence
  • Federal Spending and the Deficit
  • Entitlement Reform
  • Government Waste
  • Health and Health Care
  • Abortion
  • Housing
  • Energy
  • First Amendment Rights
  • Second Amendment Rights
  • DEI and Its Evil Financial Twin, ESG
  • Technology
  • Voting Rights
  • Education

Role of Government: It’s probably unfair to treat this as a separate category because it might double count specifics mentioned later, but Trump has demonstrated an unfortunate proclivity for wielding government power over private affairs when it suits him politically. On this point, “The Conspicuous Fist of Trump’s State Corporatism”, is a good read. Trump’s actions demonstrate the awful ways in which populism is often a close cousin to socialism. An example is Trump’s economic micro-management and abrogation of property rights in attacking share buybacks. Trump boasts of his efforts to strengthen the American economy by committing public resources to investments in private enterprises, and by “doing deals” with foreign governments to invest in the U.S. When it comes to limited government, candidate Trump’s C is now President Trump’s D.

Regulation: Despite the kinds of intrusions cited above, the Trump Administration has, at the same time, aggressively pursued deregulation of private activity. The goal is to achieve a 10-to-1 ratio of rule rollbacks to new regulatory rules. One can and should assess regulatory measures one-by-one, but there are plenty of rules that wouldn’t pass a reasonable cost-benefit test. On the whole the regulatory state has grown unwieldy and imposes significant costs on producers, and ultimately taxpayers and consumers, often with little compensatory benefit. I applaud the effort to untangle the regulatory state. My grade for Trump here remains an A.

Border Policy: Despite my preference for non-intervention, I support strong border enforcement along with expanded legal immigration.

Illegal entry has plummeted under Trump, a welcome development. Uncontrolled immigration entails a loss of sovereignty and is a poor fiscal proposition. Those with deeper criminal records, from either before or after entry, deserve no concessions. Strict vetting is also necessary to prevent incursions by potential terror threats.

While illegal entry is a crime, otherwise innocent illegals should be treated kindly. For example, rewards can be offered for voluntary deportation, an approach used extensively by the Trump Administration. There are difficult issues such as birthright citizenship, the constitutionality of which has been questioned on textual grounds, and the practicality of which can be shaky, even for children of parents who enter the U.S. legally. Either way, it seems clear that the promise of birthright citizenship should not serve as an incentive for illegal entry.

The Administration has certainly fumbled immigration enforcement in some instances, with cases of improperly detained individuals. Furthermore, very little has been done to advance the cause of increased legal immigration. On this topic I give Trump an overall B-.

Antitrust: This is a case of excessive government meddling with a big dose of favoritism thrown in. Early on, the Trump Administration chose to follow in the footsteps of Biden-era antitrust enforcement with a bias toward penalizing successful businesses on the pretext of “protecting” consumers.

Even worse, the Trump Administration has used the threat of antitrust as a cudgel in pursuit of a variety of objectives that are purely political. For example, in a recent executive order (EO), Trump threatened antitrust action against companies who invest in *too many* single-family homes, a counterproductive prohibition with hoped-for appeal to populist instincts. Then, under Trump, there have been missives from the FTC to tech companies about their failure to provide “balanced” news coverage, a prerogative protected by the First Amendment.

Trump has also interfered with Netflix’s now aborted acquisition of Warner Bros., in favor of a rival offer from Paramount. Trump also engineered the coercive extraction of a U.S. government “Golden Share” in approving the merger of U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel, which Trump claims gives him “total control”, in part by controlling the number of board seats. And he basically extorted a 15% cut for the government for approving a deal allowing Nvidea and AMD to sell the older H20 chip to China.

Trump’s approach to antitrust is very much entangled with the Administration’s uninhibited embrace of industrial policy and public control over private activity. He shares a fantasy common to interventionists that he can leverage the coercive power of government to create just the outcomes he would like.

The grade here is a D, which I think is generous.

Foreign Policy: I’ll try to keep this category separate from trade and tariff issues, though they are intertwined. Trump’s approach to foreign policy is nothing if not bold, and it’s been a mixed bag in terms of success. In the western hemisphere we have the so-called “Donroe Doctrine”, Trump’s effort to establish U.S. hemispheric leadership. So far: we gained a more effective partnership with Panama over the canal and diminished China’s control; decapitated the Maduro regime in Venezuela, asserting control over its oil shipments and undercutting the flow of narcotics through the country; brought the Cuban communist regime to near collapse by choking off its oil imports (but at the cost of greater human suffering in Cuba); partnered with Mexico in eliminating the head of a major drug cartel; and developed closer ties with several conservative regimes in Central and South America.

I’m troubled by the deadly force used against vessels said to be transporting drugs. We might have great intelligence on smuggling operations, but there must be less deadly ways to interdict.

For better or worse, Trump has trolled Canadian leadership in an effort to provoke dissent and gain influence there with respect to trade and security issues. His provocative stance on Greenland is primarily motivated by concerns over security in the Arctic.

Trump’s action against the repressive Iranian theocracy, its support of terror, and its nuclear ambitions has been a military success. Unfortunately, it has come at the cost of some American lives, at least a few civilian casualties in Iran, and a considerable economic cost. We can only hope for quick resolution and a transition to a more liberal regime for the people of Iran. However, Trump was patient to a fault with the mullahs, offering them an off-ramp during repeated rounds of negotiations. They refused to take it.

Of course, Trump is also pro-Israel and has rallied a coalition of nations who might contribute to a revitalized Gaza. I give Trump huge props for his support of Israel and his disgust with anti-Semitism in general.

Trump’s involvement in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia have been unsuccessful. It’s fair to wonder whether he’s cutting Putin way too much slack, as Putin has no intention of relenting. China remains a major threat to U.S. interests and our allies, but many of Trump’s foreign policy initiatives have served to undermine CCP interests.

Trump unique approach has alienated some of our traditional European allies, though he has had success in influencing policy abroad. In Venezuela, it’s worrisome that Trump acts as if he’s cultivating a relationship with Maduro’s replacements, who are probably no better than Maduro except for their eagerness to cowtow to Trump. Well, maybe, maybe not! Also troubling is the collateral damage suffered by the people of Cuba. There are signs of a willingness among Cuban leaders to negotiate with Trump, though hopes for a friendly successor regime might be foolish.

On the whole, I’ll give Trump a B on foreign policy. It’s bold, but he’s had some real successes.

Trade: I gave Trump an F on trade policy as a candidate. He’s more than justified that grade as president. He is a complete dolt when it comes to the benefits of foreign trade, the meaning of a trade deficit, the costs inflicted by tariffs, their complete inadequacy as a replacement for the income tax, and their counterproductive effect on foreign investment in the U.S. His “emergency” tariffs constituted a huge tax increase on the American people, but those were ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. His latest ploy is to impose punitive tariffs under the guise of a balance of payments emergency, but the balance of payments is zero! This too will be struck down in the courts.

Some might argue that Trump’s other foreign policy achievements would not have been possible without the threat of tariffs, but the fact is Trump imposed the tariffs anyway. Yup, it’s an F.

Taxes: In terms of budget effects, the increased tariff revenue (which might not last at present levels) is much more than offset by tax provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) passed into law last summer. It makes permanent many of the reductions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 that had been ready to expire. The standard deduction is increased and more limits are placed on itemization. The Act also creates targeted (and temporary) deductions for tips, overtime, auto loans, and seniors, which is inefficient because it treats various forms of income differently, leading to incentives for unproductive reallocations. Those changes also smack of political pandering.

The OBBBA makes permanent some tax incentives for business, such as immediate expensing of short-term asset purchases and domestic R&D investment. It also provides a temporary 100 percent deduction for certain structures and phases out tax credits for green energy production (bravo!).

To the extent that the tax package includes some pro-growth elements, I applaud it. Tax reductions generally are a good thing because they reduce distortions, but Trump has managed to introduce several distortionary elements just the same. I won’t dock Trump for deficit effects here because the deficit is fundamentally a spending problem, not a tax problem. I gave him a C+ on taxes as a candidate, but I’ll boost him to a B- for his first year.

Inflation: Trump doesn’t have real control over inflation as economists define it, but he’s managed to aggravate some price increases just the same. Unfortunately, he makes repeated claims that “prices have fallen” under his leadership, which of course is false. Egg prices perhaps, and oil prices (er… not this month). Of course, in general prices are up, including import prices. Inflation measures have been fairly steady over the past year, but remain stubbornly higher than the Federal Reserve’s target. I give Trump a grade on this topic only because he deserves a penalty for his false boasts. It’s a C, the same as candidate Trump.

Federal Reserve Independence: Trump has relentlessly badgered Jerome Powell and the Fed to somehow engineer lower interest rates. Of course, many key interest rates are market driven and outside the Fed’s direct control. Trump has gone so far as to bring lawfare to bear against Powell, accusing him of misleading Congress regarding cost overruns on the renovation of the Fed’s offices in DC. Of course, it’s not unusual for a president to jawbone the Fed, but Trump has been absurdly aggressive at a time when reducing the Fed’s rate targets would quite possibly backfire. At least Trump’s selection of the next Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, was more reasonable than another top candidate who would probably have been a mere punching bag. For this, I’ll lift his grade slightly, from an F to a D-.

Federal Spending and the Deficit: I discuss a few components of spending under other headings below. Beyond those points, Trump has taken every opportunity to find creative uses for taxpayer money. He has proposed a “tariff dividend” for all households funded by the revenue from import taxes. (Refunds of tariff revenue to “payers” are still in question.) At this point, the better alternative is to put extra revenue toward paying down the federal debt. The same goes for any revenue earned from the many “deals” Trump is counting on. Pay down the debt and earn an immediate, certain, and lasting return, rather than installing the government as part owner of otherwise private enterprises having uncertain returns.

Apart from that and the folly of establishing a sovereign wealth fund while the public debt is burgeoning, Trump has made no progress whatsoever on deficit reduction. Granted, he can’t count on strong legislative support despite slight majorities in both chambers of Congress.

The tax cuts in the OBBBA obviously don’t help the cause of deficit reduction. In fairness, rebuilding the military is a major priority. However, interests costs on the debt will keep rising as will discretionary non-defense outlays. At least the East-Wing Ballroom, the Arc de Trump (!), and the Kennedy Center renovation all appear to be privately funded.

Trump deserves a D here. Some of his priorities are terrible, and I can’t cut him any slack based on trends in discretionary spending.

Entitlement Reform: Trump has been silent on reforms to Social Security’s “Old Age and Survivors” programs and Medicare, except to promise no cuts in benefits under his watch. Kick the can! However, the administration has considered cuts in other entitlements, such as Social Security Disability Insurance, Medicaid and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance (SNAP). These programs have been riddled with fraud, so I applaud steps to clean them up. Nevertheless, any progress made here will still be dwarfed by the insolvency of the Retirement and Medicare programs, which Trump considers a third rail for potential reformers. I gave him an F as a candidate, but his anti-fraud efforts help him salvage a C-.

Government Waste: DOGE was short-lived as originally constituted, its execution was clumsy, and the blow-up in Trump’s relationship with Elon Musk was an embarrassment. However, DOGE was a force for stanching the flow of taxpayer dollars through politicized NGOs. The budget savings were relatively small, but the defunded programs were often egregious varieties of government waste. Subsequently, DOGE personnel had an outsized influence on downsizing the federal bureaucracy and targeting waste across various agencies. In addition, the efforts of one-time DOGE workers were put to good use in identifying entitlement fraud, which could and should result in budget savings. Trump gets a B+ on this one.

Health and Health Care: I’ll give Trump credit here for pursuing a more consumer-oriented approach to health care reform, though at least one of his initiatives is counterproductive.

His initial steps took the form of EOs reducing subsidies paid on ACA marketplace policies, ending remaining penalties for violating the ACA’s individual mandate, approving short-term coverages free of certain ACA restrictions, cutting Medicaid expansion funding, and granting more flexibility for states in defining “essential” healthcare benefits. All of these are basically good steps.

Trump issued an ill-conceived EO calling for “Most-Favored Nation” (MFN) prescription drug pricing, which should reduce Americans’ prescription costs but will dramatically undercut life-saving drug research. Hate the pharmaceutical companies all you want, but they must earn a reasonable profit to risk the massive development costs of new miracle drugs, of which they’ve brought many to market. Price controls always create more problems than they solve.

In early 2026 Trump introduced his “Great Healthcare Plan” (GHP). It would codify MFN drug pricing, fund cost-sharing reductions for ACA plans, encourage price transparency, and redirect payments to consumers and away from insurers to facilitate choice and competition. Also launched was the TrumpRx.gov platform featuring MFN pricing. Ironically, the goal here is to improve access to prescription drugs. Good luck!

Under Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Trump’s HHS Secretary, the “Make America Healthy Again” agenda has emphasized a healthy diet and exercise, including noteworthy changes in the famous food triangle hierarchy. I can’t argue with those. However, RFK Jr. has upended research under HHS, and those actions were rash in a number cases. He wants to address chronic diseases but I’m skeptical of some of his causal claims. I also have mixed reactions to his changed guidance on vaccines. There are reports that the White House has not been comfortable with all of RFK’s pronouncements and is eager to inject more oversight.

I have varied reactions to Trump’s efforts in the health care arena. MFN price capping is a good way to destroy the advantages Americans enjoy in terms of access to innovative drugs, even if they come at a steep cost. RFK Jr. is a wild card, to be fair. Otherwise, while the GHP should help to improve healthcare affordability, it neglects other critical reforms such as ending the disparate tax treatment of health care premiums and deregulating providers. Still, Trump’s grade improved here, from a D+ as a candidate to a B- thus far in his term.

Abortion: No change here. Trump has consistently supported the right to life. He gets an A.

Housing: Build Baby Build! But aside from harping on the Fed to lower interest rates, Trump hasn’t done much to encourage housing supply.

His EO banning institutional investors from owning “too many” single-family homes won’t help affordability because so few homes are owned by large investors. But to the extent that they are, the EO will increase rents and discourage new housing supply. This is another misguided foray into central economic planning.

While I think a 50-year mortgage should be legal, it’s something I believe potential homebuyers should avoid unless they want to risk stubbornly low equity in their homes stretching into retirement. Trump shouldn’t talk this up too much.

Trump has supported the “ROAD to Housing” bill, which has garnered bipartisan support. It would codify the restrictions on ownership of single-family housing by institutional investors and restrict construction of “rent-to-own” housing by such investors. One couldn’t invent a less effective way to encourage supply and promote “affordability”. But the bill would also subsidize demand, which will increase pressure on housing prices even as the bill aims to assist particular groups (e.g., tax credits for first-time homebuyers). Despite all those downsides, the bill actually includes a few steps to boost housing supply, such as making some federal lands available for development, regulatory reform, and tax incentives for builders.

Trump has also discussed changes to government sponsored enterprises (GSEs, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), which purchase new mortgages from lenders, including possible privatization. He might be licking his chops for the $300 billion the GSEs owe the federal government, which could be put toward various “deals” he might like to cut. If privatization were to end the explicit government guarantee for mortgage-backed securities issued by the GSEs, mortgage interest rates would rise and it could be quite disruptive for banks.

Update: On Friday, March 13, the President issued an EO entitled “Removing Regulatory Barriers To Affordable Home Construction“, which looks sensible at a glance.

Housing policy is another mixed bag for Trump, but I’ll give him a B on the strength of his deregulatory effort.

Energy: Drill baby drill! Despite the current disruption to oil shipments through the straight of Hormuz and the spike in oil prices, I deem Trump’s energy policies a success thus far. Largely through deregulation, Trump has opened up the spigots on domestic oil production. He has also realigned energy priorities, eliminating subsidies and mandates for intermittent renewable energy sources in favor of encouraging fossil fuels, hydroelectric, and especially a new emphasis on nuclear power. Some of these steps represent unabashed central planning, so I can’t give Trump an A on energy policy,. However, the preceding green-energy regime was central planning on steroids with the unintended consequence of instability in the power grid. I would greatly prefer a policy of complete neutrality with respect to energy sources, but at least Trump is not cowed by global warming hysteria.

And Trump is considering a temporary suspension of the Jones Act due to the energy crunch brought on by the war in Iran. That would be great except that the waiver should be permanent. The move would lower energy (and other) costs to U.S. consumers and minimize supply disruptions by allowing energy (and other goods) to flow more freely between U.S. ports.

His grade on energy policy is a B.

First Amendment Rights: Trump has not been the defender of free speech that I had hoped. On this, I gave him an A- as a candidate, but his Administration has been belligerent in attacking speech. He (and his FCC Chairman) threaten media outlets with license revocation, his Attorney General says “we will target you” for anything DOJ attorneys might define as hate speech, and Trump has called certain speech he dislikes “illegal”. I also have qualms about an EO issued last year by Trump targeting “campaigns of … radicalization”, which might, in practice, bring any sort of opposition speech under scrutiny. And there are other potentially troublesome provisions for protected speech. Trump’s pure intent might be to stop violent radicalism, which is fine in spirit but hard to bring off without mass surveillance and violations of rights. I therefore downgrade Trump to a C on free speech.

Second Amendment Rights: Trump has not been quite as consistent on gun rights as he was as a candidate. He took a number of actions to reduce burdens and restrictions on gun rights, but in other cases he let restrictions stand, including arrests for gun possession in Washington DC by federal agents and a possible proposal to restrict the gun rights of transgendered individuals. All-in-all, I’ll reduce Trump’s A on gun rights to a B+.

DEI and Its Evil Financial Twin, ESG: There is no question that Trump has done much to cut through the stranglehold that DEI doctrine had imposed on social and economic life. He issued EOs to end DEI practices in the federal government. He also threatened major universities with funding freezes and anti-discrimation actions, an approach that has met with some success. Trump’s words and actions on DEI have reverberated through the private sector as well. He has encouraged individuals who believe they’ve suffered discrimination based on DEI to file lawsuits. The thrust of the Administration’s agenda on DEI and regulatory changes has served to undermine the use of ESG measures. These are intended to draw investors to companies purporting to foster environmental and social goals, which can be at odds with creating value for shareholders. Trump has earned his A in this category.

Technology: As in other policy domains, the record here is marred by misguided industrial policies. That includes the recent snafu over the Department of Defense’s allegation of “supply chain risk” posed by Anthropic. DoD wants carte blanche access to all aspects of any AI model it adopts, including uses in autonomous weapons systems and mass public surveillance. Anthropic said it would not accept that without guardrails, so an apparently infuriated Pete Hegseth moved to designate the company a supply chain risk, an outright punishment that would obviously damage Anthropic’s economic prospects. Yet almost immediately, DoD agreed to an arrangement with OpenAI with guardrails similar to those desired by Anthropic. Now, Trump, who seems to have Hegseth’s back, is readying an EO on the topic… so we shall see. But it’s a mess. Anthropic has filed suit.

And yet Trump has generally been supportive of AI development, signing an order to prevent states from imposing a patchwork of varying, complex regulations. The White House has issued an ”AI Action Plan” to encourage AI exports, minimizing federal regulatory burdens, and “upholding free speech” on “unbiased” frontier models. Let’s hope “unbiased” has a truly neutral definition in this case. Trump has signed a series of EOs related to AI research and deployment, which are linked here.

Post-inauguration, Trump dove right into another socialist joint venture known as Stargate to build data center infrastructure. The rationale for the government’s direct involvement is national security. Of course, that’s the Administration’s rough and ready excuse for almost any kind of intervention.

Trump has helped promote the crypto industry, supporting legislation (the CLARITY Act and the GENIUS Act) enabling more widespread use of stablecoins. He even supports the payment of returns on stablecoins, a development that is unpopular with banks. Trump has also acted to promote cybersecurity and harden infrastructure against malicious actors. More recently, he initiated a program to test eVTOL technologies (electronic vertical takeoff and landing), which are expected to revolutionize local and regional transportation in coming years.

The best I can give Trump on technology is a B-, given his penchant for government control. The Anthropic controversy is a real black eye.

Voting Rights: The Trump-backed SAVE America Act would require an ID proving citizenship to vote in federal elections. It’s stalled in the Senate, seven votes short of the 60 needed to send it to Trump’s desk. GOP senators are unwilling to force a talking filibuster, let alone to use the so-called “nuclear option” to force a simple-majority vote. There is still a possibility of including a voter ID requirement in a budget reconciliation bill if anyone can convince the Senate Parliamentarian that it would have budget impacts. For his part, Trump says he’ll refuse to sign any other legislation until the SAVE Act crosses his desk, though he’s also threatened to issue an EO mandating voter ID should the Senate fail to pass the bill. The constitutionality of such an order would be challenged, of course, but for his determination on the issue, I’ll give him an A+.

Education: This is a quick addition to the list. After inserting the photo of Trump at the top, I realized that I’d completely forgotten to add education as a performance category. Trump’s effort to dismantle the wasteful and unproductive Department of Education is to be applauded. He’s also been an unwavering supporter of school choice. I’ll give him an A here.

I have to stop! That’s 22 categories and a “grade point average” of 2.55 if the categories are equally weighted. It’s a little worse than Trump’s GPA as a candidate (2.67). He could have improved his grades dramatically without his bent for economic intervention, but I’d have to vote for him again given the alternative.

Musings and Misgivings of a Likely Trump Voter

24 Thursday Aug 2023

Posted by Nuetzel in Politics

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

Comparative advantage, corporate taxes, Corporatism, Donald Trump, eminent domain, Energy Production, Entitlement Reform, Illegal Immigration, Industrial Policy, Inflation tax, Legal Immigration, Medicare, Modern Monetary Theory, Nationalism, Populism, Protectionism, Social Security, Spending Growth, statism, The Wall

Choosing between the lesser of evils is a bummer, but that’s often the reality for voters. That goes almost without saying… our choices are politicians! I’ll certainly be in that quandary if Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for president in 2024, which looks increasingly likely. I held my nose and voted for him — twice — primarily because the Big Government solutions promoted consistently by Democrats are so awful.

At this point I’m not fully on board with any GOP candidate. That could change, but not yet. Now, if you’re a Trump supporter and you think the rambling opinions below are too critical of your guy, cut me some slack. I’m not a “Never Trumper”. I’m a “Never Statist”. And while I’ve never had much faith that Trump is with me on that count, he will almost surely be the lesser of evils.

The Abused Politician

Trump has been subjected to despicable treatment by political opponents since well before his inauguration in 2016, and his abusers in and out of government never let up. Many of the charges and accusations against him have been pure fiction and at this point represent obvious election interference. So I’m somewhat sympathetic to him despite some of his positions and often disagreeable manner. Still, I credit him for being a fighter, and as an aside, I’ll add that I actually enjoy some of his rants. He has the style of a nasty stand-up comic, which gives me some occasional laughs.

I agree with Trump on certain policy matters. On others, including some fundamental points, I find it hard to trust him as a leader, and I said that long before he was elected in 2016. He claims not to be a politician, but he is a politician through and through. He’s also a populist. And while populism can serve as a valuable check on certain excesses of government, it often cuts the wrong way, favoring what I like to call “do-somethingism”. That usually means public intervention. Populism is a perfectly natural home for a “pick-and-choose” statist like Trump, however. Moreover, I’m not happy that he refused to debate his opponents, and that too was a purely political decision.

Malign Neglect

If you need proof of Trump’s base instincts as a politician, look no further than his refusal to engage on the subject of entitlement reform. It’s no secret that both Social Security (SS) and Medicare are technically insolvent. This is probably the most important fiscal issue the country will face in the foreseeable future.

Without reform, SS benefits will be cut 23% in 2034. That would bring certain outrage among seniors and anyone approaching retirement. Sure, it’s a decade down the road, but addressing it sooner would be far less painful. Does Trump favor a huge cut in benefits? Probably not. Does he think benefits can simply continue without additional funding or reform of some kind? Does he prefer a greater inflation tax, rather than reform? Does he secretly favor “just print the money” like the modern monetary theorists of the Left? There are much better alternatives, but where is his leadership on this issue?

His unwillingness to discuss entitlements, and indeed, his denigration of anyone who so much as mentions the need for serious reforms, is a disgrace. He knows the train wreck is coming, but his focus is squarely on short-term politics. Why are so many on the Right willing to fall for this? Maybe they too understand it’s an elephant in the room, but an elephant that must not be named. After all, it’s not as if the Democrats have done a thing to address the issue.

False Fealty to Workers

Trump is a protectionist, given to the mercantilist fallacy that only exports are good and imports are bad. We import heavily because we are a high-income nation. The other side of that coin is that the world craves our assets, including the U.S. dollar (which is in absolutely no danger of losing its dominance as the primary currency of international transactions).

Here’s a little truth from “Trade Flows 101”: U.S. imports of goods and services correspond to purchases of U.S. assets by the rest of the world. In other words, U.S. trade deficits present opportunities for foreign investors to supply us with capital. That helps foster greater U.S. productive capacity, greater worker productivity, and higher wages.

On the other hand, government intervention to discourage imports via quotas or tariffs increases domestic prices and erodes real wages in the U.S. Furthermore, to favor certain industries (exporters) over others (importers) is a grotesque application of corporatist industrial policy. Why does the Right tolerate Trump’s advocacy for this sort of government central planning? Part of the answer is national security, which I accept to a limited extent, but not when “critical industries” are extended favors by government that are redundant to already powerful market forces.

Protectionism owes some of its popularity to the appeal of nationalism, as distinct from patriotism. However, it promotes sclerosis among domestic producers by shielding them from competition, causing direct harm to U.S. consumers. There is nothing patriotic about protectionism.

Real Stuff

A fallacy closely related to protectionism, and one to which Trump subscribes, is that the U.S. must produce more “things” — more commodities and manufactured goods. That’s not the market’s judgement, but one that appeals to the instincts of interventionists. In any case, services are often more highly valued than physical goods. If your comparative advantage is in producing a highly-valued service, don’t beat yourself up over neglecting to produce hard goods at which you’re comparatively lousy. Specialization and trade are under-appreciated as true social and economic miracles.

That said, we certainly have an advantage in the production of fossil fuels and should continue to produce them without interference. I’m with Trump on that. One day, reliable sources of “clean” energy will be economic, but we’re not there yet.

Corporate State

Well before his presidential run, Trump had a history of leveraging government to achieve his private ends. Eminent domain actions were useful to his development projects and expanding his own property rights at the expense of others. Naturally, he claimed his projects were in the public interest. Ah, the mindset of a rent seeker: government exists to actively facilitate the acquisitive interests of private business, or at least the “winners”. That thinking is thoroughly contrary to the libertarian view of the state’s role in establishing a neutral social environment under the rule-of-law.

In other ways, as President, Trump sought to bring major corporations under his political sway. Trump’s protectionist leanings as president were a prime example of corporatism in action. And read this account of a public meeting (and watch it at the link) at which one CEO after another, under Trump’s furrowed gaze, took turns describing something great they were doing for the country and committing to do more. It was one big, weird suck-up session intended to make the puffed-up Trump look like a great leader. As the author at the link says:

“These are corporate executives doing the President’s bidding for fear or favour.”

I supported Trump’s tax cuts, though they were certainly designed to reduce taxes on corporate income. Was this corporatist largess? That might have been part of his motivation. However, as I’ve argued before, corporate income is largely double-taxed. Moreover, shareholders do not bear the full burden of corporate taxes. Workers bear a significant portion of the burden, so Trump’s corporate tax cuts encouraged growth in real wages, whether he understood it or not.

It’s Still So Big

Tax cuts paired with reduced spending would have been a welcome approach. Unfortunately, Trump was a fairly big spender during his term in office, even if you exclude Covid emergency spending. Growth in the government’s dominance over resources did not slow on his watch. Fiscally disciplined he’s not!

It’s true that his administration made efforts to curtail regulation, but in retrospect, those steps at best arrested the growth of regulation, rather than achieving reductions. The hope of seeing any real deconstruction of the administrative state under Trump was fleeting.

Migration

Immigration is a complicated issue when it comes to assessing Trump’s candidacy. I’m strongly in favor of greater legal immigration because it would improve our demographics and labor supply while shrinking our entitlements deficits. Legal migrants are often technically proficient and many come with sponsorships. On the whole, legal migrants tend to be ready and willing to work,

This position is often condemned by Trump’s most ardent cheerleaders, however. I’ve generally supported Trump’s position on illegal immigration as a matter of national security, to eliminate human trafficking, and to reduce burdens on public aid and support systems. Unfortunately, during Trump’s presidency, he did more to reduce legal immigration than illegal immigration. I have no qualms about “the Wall” except for its expense and the likelihood that cheaper and superior technologies could be deployed for border security. Trump might prefer the Wall’s symbolic value.

Rightly or wrongly, Trump’s messaging on immigration strikes many as nativist, providing an easy excuse for the Left to accuse him of racism. That certainly won’t help his election prospects.

Conclusion

Trump will almost surely be the GOP nominee, unless Democrats succeed in putting him behind bars by then. If the choice is Trump vs. almost any Democrat I can imagine, I’ll have to vote for him. For all his faults and wild card qualities, I still consider him a safer alternative than the devils we know on the Left. But I’d feel much better about him if he’d take a responsible position on Social Security and Medicare reform, abandon protectionism except in cases of critical national security needs (and without overkill), commit to spending reductions, and adopt a more productive approach to legal immigration.

Behold Our Algorithmic Overlords

18 Thursday Jul 2019

Posted by Nuetzel in Automation, Censorship, Discrimination, Marketplace of Ideas

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Algorithmic Governance, American Affairs, Antitrust, Behavioral Economics, Bryan Caplan, Claremont Institute, David French, Deplatforming, Facebook, Gleichschaltung, Google, Jonah Goldberg, Joseph Goebbels, Mark Zuckerberg, Matthew D. Crawford, nudge, Peeter Theil, Political Legitimacy, Populism, Private Governance, Twitter, Viewpoint Diversity

A willingness to question authority is healthy, both in private matters and in the public sphere, but having the freedom to do so is even healthier. It facilitates free inquiry, the application of the scientific method, and it lies at the heart of our constitutional system. Voluntary acceptance of authority, and trust in its legitimacy, hinges on our ability to identify its source, the rationale for its actions, and its accountability. Unaccountable authority, on the other hand, cannot be tolerated. It’s the stuff of which tyranny is made.

That’s one linchpin of a great essay by Matthew D. Crawford in American Affairs entitled “Algorithmic Governance and Political Legitimacy“. It’s a lengthy piece that covers lots of ground, and very much worth reading. Or you can read my slightly shorter take on it!

Imagine a world in which all the information you see is selected by algorithm. In addition, your success in the labor market is determined by algorithm. Your college admission and financial aid decisions are determined by algorithm. Credit applications are decisioned by algorithm. The prioritization you are assigned for various health care treatments is determined by algorithm. The list could go on and on, but many of these “use-cases” are already happening to one extent or another.

Blurring Private and Public Governance

Much of what Crawford describes has to do with the way we conduct private transactions and/or private governance. Most governance in free societies, of the kind that touches us day-to-day, is private or self-government, as Crawford calls it. With the advent of giant on-line platforms, algorithms are increasingly an aspect of that governance. Crawford notes the rising concentration of private governmental power within these organizations. While the platforms lack complete monopoly power, they are performing functions that we’d ordinarily be reluctant to grant any public form of government: they curate the information we see, conduct surveillance, exercise control over speech, and even indulge in the “deplatforming” of individuals and organizations when it suits them. Crawford quotes Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg:

“In a lot of ways Facebook is more like a government than a traditional company. . . . We have this large community of people, and more than other technology companies we’re really setting policies.”

At the same time, the public sector is increasingly dominated by a large administrative apparatus that is outside of the normal reach of legislative, judicial and even executive checks. Crawford worries about “… the affinities between administrative governance and algorithmic governance“.  He emphasizes that neither algorithmic governance on technology platforms nor an algorithmic administrative state are what one could call representative democracy. But whether these powers have been seized or we’ve granted them voluntarily, there are already challenges to their legitimacy. And no wonder! As Crawford says, algorithms are faceless pathways of neural connections that are usually difficult to explain, and their decisions often strike those affected as arbitrary or even nonsensical.

Ministry of Wokeness

Political correctness plays a central part in this story. There is no question that the platforms are setting policies that discriminate against certain viewpoints. But Crawford goes further, asserting that algorithms have a certain bureaucratic logic to elites desiring “cutting edge enforcement of social norms“, i.e., political correctness, or “wokeness”, the term of current fashion.

“First, in the spirit of Václav Havel we might entertain the idea that the institutional workings of political correctness need to be shrouded in peremptory and opaque administrative mechanisms be­cause its power lies precisely in the gap between what people actu­ally think and what one is expected to say. It is in this gap that one has the experience of humiliation, of staying silent, and that is how power is exercised.

But if we put it this way, what we are really saying is not that PC needs administrative enforcement but rather the reverse: the expand­ing empire of bureaucrats needs PC. The conflicts created by identi­ty politics become occasions to extend administrative authority into previously autonomous domains of activity. …

The incentive to technologize the whole drama enters thus: managers are answerable (sometimes legally) for the conflict that they also feed on. In a corporate setting, especially, some kind of ass‑covering becomes necessary. Judgments made by an algorithm (ideally one supplied by a third-party vendor) are ones that nobody has to take responsibility for. The more contentious the social and political landscape, the bigger the institutional taste for automated decision-making is likely to be.

Political correctness is a regime of institutionalized insecurity, both moral and material. Seemingly solid careers are subject to sud­den reversal, along with one’s status as a decent person.”

The Tyranny of Deliberative Democracy

Crawford takes aim at several other trends in intellectual fashion that seem to complement algorithmic governance. One is “deliberative democracy”, an ironically-named theory which holds that with the proper framing conditions, people will ultimately support the “correct” set of policies. Joseph Goebbels couldn’t have put it better. As Crawford explains, the idea is to formalize those conditions so that action can be taken if people do not support the “correct” policies. And if that doesn’t sound like Gleichschaltung (enforcement of conformity), nothing does! This sort of enterprise would require:

 “… a cadre of subtle dia­lecticians working at a meta-level on the formal conditions of thought, nudging the populace through a cognitive framing operation to be conducted beneath the threshold of explicit argument. 

… the theory has proved immensely successful. By that I mean the basic assumptions and aspira­tions it expressed have been institutionalized in elite culture, perhaps nowhere more than at Google, in its capacity as directorate of information. The firm sees itself as ‘definer and defender of the public interest’ …“

Don’t Nudge Me

Another of Crawford’s targets is the growing field of work related to the irrationality of human behavior. This work resulted from the revolutionary development of  experimental or behavioral economics, in which various hypotheses are tested regarding choice, risk aversion, an related issues. Crawford offers the following interpretation, which rings true:

“… the more psychologically informed school of behavioral economics … teaches that we need all the help we can get in the form of external ‘nudges’ and cognitive scaffolding if we are to do the rational thing. But the glee and sheer repetition with which this (needed) revision to our under­standing of the human person has been trumpeted by journalists and popularizers indicates that it has some moral appeal, quite apart from its intellectual merits. Perhaps it is the old Enlightenment thrill at disabusing human beings of their pretensions to specialness, whether as made in the image of God or as ‘the rational animal.’ The effect of this anti-humanism is to make us more receptive to the work of the nudgers.”

While changes in the framing of certain decisions, such as opt-in versus opt-out rules, can often benefit individuals, most of us would rather not have nudgers cum central planners interfere with too many of our decisions, no matter how poorly they think those decisions approximate rationality. Nudge engineers cannot replicate your personal objectives or know your preference map. Indeed, externally applied nudges might well be intended to serve interests other than your own. If the political equilibrium involves widespread nudging, it is not even clear that the result will be desirable for society: the history of central planning is one of unintended consequences and abject failure. But it’s plausible that this is where the elitist technocrats in Silicon Vally and within the administrative state would like to go with algorithmic governance.

Crawford’s larger thesis is summarized fairly well by the following statements about Google’s plans for the future:

“The ideal being articulated in Mountain View is that we will inte­grate Google’s services into our lives so effortlessly, and the guiding presence of this beneficent entity in our lives will be so pervasive and unobtrusive, that the boundary between self and Google will blur. The firm will provide a kind of mental scaffold for us, guiding our intentions by shaping our informational context. This is to take the idea of trusteeship and install it in the infrastructure of thought.

Populism is the rejection of this.”

He closes with reflections on the attitudes of the technocratic elite toward those who reject their vision as untrustworthy. The dominance of algorithmic governance is unlikely to help them gain that trust.

What’s to be done?

Crawford seems resigned to the idea that the only way forward is an ongoing struggle for political dominance “to be won and held onto by whatever means necessary“. Like Bryan Caplan, I have always argued that we should eschew anti-trust action against the big tech platforms, largely because we still have a modicum of choice in all of the services they provide. Caplan rejects the populist arguments against the tech “monopolies” and insists that the data collection so widely feared represents a benign phenomenon. And after all, consumers continue to receive a huge surplus from the many free services offered on-line.

But the reality elucidated by Crawford is that the tech firms are much more than private companies. They are political and quasi-governmental entities. Their tentacles reach deeply into our lives and into our institutions, public and private. They are capable of great social influence, and putting their tools in the hands of government (with a monopoly on force), they are capable of exerting social control. They span international boundaries, bringing their technical skills to bear in service to foreign governments. This week Peter Theil stated that Google’s work with the Chinese military was “treasonous”. It was only a matter of time before someone prominent made that charge.

The are no real safeguards against abusive governance by the tech behemoths short of breaking them up or subjecting them to tight regulation, and neither of those is likely to turn out well for users. I would, however, support safeguards on the privacy of customer data from scrutiny by government security agencies for which the platforms might work. Firewalls between their consumer and commercial businesses and government military and intelligence interests would be perfectly fine by me. 

The best safeguard of viewpoint diversity and against manipulation is competition. Of course, the seriousness of threats these companies actually face from competitors is open to question. One paradox among many is that the effectiveness of the algorithms used by these companies in delivering services might enhance their appeal to some, even as those algorithms can undermine public trust.

There is an ostensible conflict in the perspective Crawford offers with respect to the social media giants: despite the increasing sophistication of their algorithms, the complaint is really about the motives of human beings who wish to control political debate through those algorithms, or end it once and for all. Jonah Goldberg puts it thusly:

“The recent effort by Google to deny the Claremont Institute the ability to advertise its gala was ridiculous. Facebook’s blocking of Prager University videos was absurd. And I’m glad Facebook apologized.

But the fact that they apologized points to the fact that while many of these platforms clearly have biases — often encoded in bad algorithms — points to the possibility that these behemoths aren’t actually conspiring to ‘silence’ all conservatives. They’re just making boneheaded mistakes based in groupthink, bias, and ignorance.”

David French notes that the best antidote for hypocrisy in the management of user content on social media is to expose it loud and clear, which sets the stage for a “market correction“. And after all, the best competition for any social media platform is real life. Indeed, many users are dropping out of various forms of on-line interaction. Social media companies might be able to retain users and appeal to a broader population if they could demonstrate complete impartiality. French proposes that these companies adopt free speech policies fashioned on the First Amendment itself:

“…rules and regulations restricting speech must be viewpoint-neutral. Harassment, incitement, invasion of privacy, and intentional infliction of emotional distress are speech limitations with viewpoint-neutral definitions…”

In other words, the companies must demonstrate that both moderators and algorithms governing user content and interaction are neutral. That is one way for them to regain broad trust. The other crucial ingredient is a government that is steadfast in defending free speech rights and the rights of the platforms to be neutral. Among other things, that means the platforms must retain protection under Section 230 of the Telecommunications Decency Act, which assures their immunity against lawsuits for user content. However, the platforms have had that immunity since quite early in internet history, yet they have developed an aggressive preference for promoting certain viewpoints and suppressing others. The platforms should be content to ensure that their policies and algorithms provide useful tools for users without compromising the free exchange of ideas. Good governance, political legitimacy, and ultimately freedom demand it. 

Trump Flaunts Shape-Shifting Powers

06 Thursday Aug 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Government, Liberty, Tyranny

≈ 5 Comments

Tags

Andy Kroll, Common Core, Donald Trump, eminent domain, FreedomFest, Immigration policy, Jeffrey Tucker, On the Issues, Peter Suderman, Politico, Populism, Reason, Trump campaign, Trump Policies, Trump Policy Positions, Trumpism, Wealth Tax

trump characature

Donald Trump could take just about any position on any issue and defend it with conviction and blustery passion… until he changes his mind. At this point in his presidential bid, there is nothing on his campaign web site in the way of specific policy statements. Here is an “On The Issues” post showing the evolution of Trump’s positions in a number of policy areas. Just about anyone on the left or the right should be able to get a few chuckles out of this list. It’s truly astonishing.

A few of Trump’s current policy positions are discussed below, but before getting into that, it’s interesting to consider the overall tenor of his rhetoric. Most observers will happily admit that they find his bombast entertaining, and I do too. He’s outspoken and unapologetic, confronting his critics head-on, often to powerful effect. Many are drawn to this sort of candidate, and his popular image as a skilled businessman doesn’t hurt. But while all politicians are capable of disappointing supporters, Trump fans do not know, and cannot know, what they’re getting.

Trump is almost always critical but rarely suggests actual solutions, making it difficult to discern whether he really has policy positions. So much so that it’s incredible to hear praise for his “clarity”. For a more sober take, read Andy Kroll’s account of frustrated attempts to get direct responses on a few policy issues from the Trump campaign, and of Trump’s bizarre tour of Laredo, Texas. A related piece by Peter Suderman appears at Reason.com. Politico has emphasized the same point in “Will the real Donald Trump please stand up?“. Kroll says this:

“I have zero to report about Trump’s plans for actually being president—except that, from all available evidence, he hasn’t given it a moment’s thought.“

An interesting piece on Trump comes from Jeffrey Tucker in “What is Trumpism?“. A longer version appeared as “Trumpism: The Ideology“. Here is one bit from Tucker, written after hearing “The Donald” speak at FreedomFest:

“The speech lasted an hour, and my jaw was on the floor most of the time. I’ve never before witnessed such a brazen display of nativistic jingoism, along with a complete disregard for economic reality. It was an awesome experience, a perfect repudiation of all good sense and intellectual sobriety. …

His speech was like an interwar séance of once-powerful dictators who inspired multitudes, drove countries into the ground, and died grim deaths.“

Here are a few examples of Trump’s “nativism”, as described by Tucker:

“I did laugh as he denounced the existence of tech support in India that serves American companies (‘how can it be cheaper to call people there than here?’ — as if he still thinks that long-distance charges apply). 

When a Hispanic man asked a question, Trump interrupted him and asked if he had been sent by the Mexican government. He took it a step further, dividing blacks from Hispanics by inviting a black man to the microphone to tell how his own son was killed by an illegal immigrant.“

Two issues on which Trump has been outspoken are international trade and immigration. As an aside, I note that he is always quick to qualify any aggressive statements he makes on these topics with a quick “I love the Chinese”, or “I love the Mexicans”. Tucker, at the link above, highlights Trump’s backward views on trade, which focus almost exclusively on U.S. producers without considering the benefits of trade to U.S. consumers. He sees big ships coming into port, and thinks only of cash flowing abroad: “What do we get?” Well, we get nice foreign goods, thank you very much. But Trump blames foreign trading partners for many ills, despite the fact that his Trump-label ties are made in China! Are we somehow being cheated on those ties? Trump says we need smarter people negotiating “these deals”. Okay… is that a policy?

We don’t need trade wars if we want to avoid a much weaker economy. Yet Trump’s trade rhetoric suggests that he would be tempted to employ trade restrictions like tariffs as a bludgeon. For example, consider one of his other big talking points: illegal immigration (despite the fact that the inflow of illegals has slowed to a trickle over the past few years). Trump wants to build a wall across the length of the U.S.-Mexican border, and he says he’ll make Mexico pay for it. To get a wall built, Trump might well decide that he can raise tariffs on Mexican goods to prohibitive levels as a way of twisting Mexican arms. That sort of action is likely to be very costly for U.S. consumers, and ultimately producers as well.

Trump’s latest pronouncements on immigration policy have been described as confusing. In a nutshell, he wants to deport “the criminals” (and not just those already doing time) and deport all other undocumented aliens; create an expedited process whereby we can let “the good ones” back into the country with legal status; “maybe” create some sort of path to citizenship (because “who knows what’s going to happen”), but not right away; and “we’re going to do something” for the “DREAMers”. Trump says he’ll know how to identify the “good ones”. If he’s so confident of that, then why would he, a smart “business guy”, allow the country to incur the expense of deporting millions of them?

Who knows what Trump will propose in terms of tax reform, health care and gun control? Ditto on welfare policy, defense, the drug war, foreign policy and energy. He wisely spoke against the drug war in 1990, but I’m not aware of any recent statements on the issue. Also in his favor, he does not accept the “consensus” on climate change and opposes Common Core. He has criticized crony capitalism but has undoubtedly benefited from cronyism, enlisting governments in the pursuit of eminent domain action. He is said to favor cuts in federal spending, but he has opposed cuts in Social Security and Medicare. He opposes an increase in the minimum wage, but he has proposed a wealth tax in the past.

Trump has not offered many specifics in this campaign, and the GOP debate this Thursday night will not provide a decent forum for articulating policy. In general, his positioning is a very mixed bag. One gets the sense that he is doing his best to appeal to a sort of populist conservatism. Unfortunately, his signature “positioning” on trade and immigration qualify him as something of a statist. He has certainly held a number of other statist views in the past, though he has disavowed at least some of those.

In closing, here are two more quotes from Jeffrey Tucker about Trump that I found both ominous and plausible:

“What’s distinct about Trumpism, and the tradition of thought it represents, is that it is not leftist in its cultural and political outlook (see how he is praised for rejecting “political correctness”), and yet still totalitarian in the sense that it seeks total control of society and economy and demands no limits on state power.“

“These people are all the same. They purport to be populists, while loathing the decisions people actually make in the marketplace (such as buying Chinese goods or hiring Mexican employees).“

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