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Now, What About Trump?

25 Wednesday Jan 2017

Posted by Nuetzel in Trump Administration

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Ajit Pai, Barack Obama, Bill Weld, Donald Trump, Drug War, eminent domain, Entitlement Reform, Executive Authority, FCC, FDA, Fourth Amendment, Gary Johnson, Hillary Clinton, Industrial Policy, Jim O'Neil, Keystone Pipeline, Legal Immigration, Limited government, Paris Climate Accord, Protectionism, Scott Alexander, Slate Star Codex, Standing Rock Sioux, State's Rights, Trade Partnerships, Trans-Pacific Partnership, Trump's Great Wall, USA Freedom Act, Wilbur Ross

donald-trump-hair-force-1

This guy I voted for… Hoo boy! I’m tellin’ ya’, this guy’s a real beaut! But now, it’s time for me to make an accounting of the good and the bad I see in a Donald Trump presidency. I’ll cover a number of policy areas and how well I think, at this point, the Trump Administration will match my preferences, which are generally libertarian. In posting this list, I’m reminded of a wonderful quote of the late guitarist Jerry Garcia on his ideas for a new project: “I’m shopping around for something to do that no one will like.” I certainly don’t expect many to agree with the entirety of my “scorecard”, but here it is. But before getting to it, a few preliminaries:

First, I’ve had mixed feelings about Trump since he first announced that he’d seek the republican nomination. A basic concern was the difficulty of knowing his real philosophy about the role of government and fundamental constitutional rights. Trump has a history of contradictory positions on big issues like taxes, health care, and gun rights. It was a gamble to count on him to follow any particular idealogical course, and some of it remains unclear even now. My misgivings about Trump’s inclinations as a whirligig were discussed on Sacred Cow Chips in “Trump Flaunts Shape-Shifting Powers” in 2015. Uncertainty still colors my views, though his cabinet picks and other alliances have served to clarify the direction of policy. My discussion below reflects this uncertainty. Also, Trump shows every intention of moving fast on a number of fronts, so I hope the relevance of this post isn’t too perishable.

Second, it’s worth noting that Trump’s policy statements and predilection to “keep-’em-guessing” are probably a by-product of his instincts as a negotiator. His bellicosity may be something of a ploy to negotiate more favorable compromises in international affairs, trade and domestic issues. Still, I can’t know that. Should I evaluate all those statements at face value as policy positions? I have to make some allowance for the reasonability of a bargaining position, but I’ll try to be consistent in my approach.

Third, revelations during the campaign of Trump’s past remarks about women, and some in-campaign remarks like his attack on Megyn Kelly, were highly offensive. I’ve heard plenty of “locker-room talk” over my years, but some of Trump’s statements were made well outside the locker room and well beyond the age at which “youthful indiscretion” could be taken as a mitigating factor. Trump has plenty of female defenders, however, and he has a record of placing women in key roles within the Trump organization and for paying them well. While I do not condone the remarks, and I doubt that complete reform is possible, he cannot change his history and he is now the president. Evaluating his policy positions is now an entirely separate matter. I only hope the exposure has taught him to be more respectful.

Finally, I do not buy the narrative that Trump is a racist. This “Crying Wolf” essay on Scott Alexander’s Slate Star Codex blog demonstrates that Trump’s rhetoric and behavior during his campaign was not racist when viewed in the broader context of his record of denigrating anyone who opposes him. He seems to be an equal opportunity offender! In fact, Trump made strong attempts to appeal to minority voters and succeeded to some extent. His positions on border security and immigration were boisterous, but they were not truly about race or ethnicity. Instead, they were rooted in concerns about illegal immigration and public safety. Efforts by the left to characterize those points as de facto evidence of racism are simply not credible. Nor are claims that he practiced racial discrimination at his apartment buildings early in his career. Today, I would call those cases garden-variety disparate impact actions, as when a business is challenged on the use of screening criteria that might be correlated with race, such as credit rating. A legitimate business purpose is generally a valid defense, though Trump did agree to settle out of court.

So what about Trump from a policy perspective? Here is what I expect of his administration thus far:

I’m Pretty Sure of the Following, Which I Rate As Bad

Trump is a protectionist. He is extremely ignorant of trade principles and favors import duties to punish those who wish to purchase goods from abroad. This would raise both domestic and import prices and directly harm employment in import-dependent industries. It would also discourage innovation by domestic producers, who would face less competition. I cover these protectionist tendencies here as an unqualified negative, but I have a more mixed view on his opposition to certain government-negotiated trade agreements (e.g., the Trans-Pacific Partnership ), which are covered below.

Trump is likely to be a drug warrior. He could do much to restore order in inner cities by ending the drug war, but he will not. He will thereby encourage activity in the black market for drugs, which produces both violence and more dangerous varieties of drugs. He might well interfere with the rights of states to determine their own policies toward relatively benign substances like marijuana, including medical marijuana, by choosing to enforce destructive federal drug laws. The possible appointment of marijuana legalization advocate Jim O’Neil to head the FDA looks decreasingly likely. That might be a game changer, but I doubt it will happen.

Big public infrastructure outlays. This is distinct from private infrastructure, to be discussed below. The latter is motivated by private willingness-to-pay. Rushing into a large public construction program with questionable economic justification will bring waste, and it will probably be sold as an economic stimulus package, which is unnecessary and dangerous at a time when the economy is finally operating near capacity. The decrepitude of American infrastructure is greatly exaggerated by those with a private interest in such projects, and the media eats it up. The breathless promotion of massive but noneconomic projects like high-speed rail is also greeted with enthusiasm by the media. And politicians love to boast to constituents of their efforts to secure federal funds for big local projects. We also know that Trump wants to build a massive border wall, but I’m convinced that border security could be achieved at lower cost by leveraging surveillance technology and other, less costly barriers.

Deficits: Increased defense outlays, a big infrastructure package, a “great” wall, tax credits and lower tax rates will almost certainly add up to ballooning federal deficits in the years ahead. That fiscal combination will be unsustainable if accompanied by higher interest rates and could very well have inflationary consequences.

Trump favors public and private eminent domain and believes it should be treated as a hallowed institution. He truly thinks that a “higher-valued use” is a superior claim to existing ownership of property. This is perverse. I have trouble accepting eminent domain action even for a public purpose, let alone a private purpose; it should only be motivated by the most compelling public interest, as a last resort, and with handsome compensation to the existing property owner. We can only hope that Trump’s public and private infrastructure programs do not lead to many takings of this kind.

Industrial policy. This is the essence of government central planning, picking winners and losers by granting tax and loan subsidies, lenient reviews, and other advantages. The most obvious example of Trump’s amenability to industrial policy is his penchant for trade protectionism, but I fear it will go much deeper. For some reason, Trump believes that manufacturing activity creates private and public benefits far beyond its market value. Moreover, manufacturers require far fewer workers now than they did in his youth, so the sector is not the job engine it once was. His appointee for Commerce Secretary is Wilbur Ross, an investor with a history of trading on prospects for government assistance. This article provides disturbing background on Ross, along with this quote: “We ought, as a country, to decide which industries are we going to really promote — the so-called industries of the future.” Trump’s plan to meet regularly with leaders of giant corporations is a sure sign that corporatism will be alive and well for at least the next four years… as long as they tow The Donald’s line.

Restricting Legal Immigration. I’m all for securing the border, but legal immigration is a major driver of economic growth. Many industries rely on a flow of skilled and unskilled workers from abroad, a need that will be more intense given Trump’s plan to tax outsourcing. Moreover, the country will face a low ratio of workers to retirees over the next few decades; short of massive entitlement reform, immigration is perhaps the only real chance of meeting public obligations to retirees.

Endangered Privacy Rights: As a “law and order” guy, Donald Trump might not be a reliable defender of the privacy protections enshrined in the Fourth Amendment. He has expressed a willingness to repeal the USA Freedom Act, which restricts the bulk collection of metadata and provides other privacy protections. Trump also has expressed an interest in forcing technology companies to enable “back doors” into the devices and programs they sell to the public. I’m concerned that we’ll see the creation of security databases with an excessively broad scope. As a likely drug warrior, Trump will support the sort of privacy violations in law enforcement that have become all too common.

I’m Pretty Sure of the Following, Which I Rate As Good

He’s not Hillary Clinton, and he is not a statist in the mold of Clinton and Barack Obama, though he does embody some statist tendencies as described above.  I thought I would vote for Gary Johnson, but he made crucial mistakes, such as choosing Bill Weld as his running mate and fumbling at attempts to explain libertarian philosophy. At some point, my distaste for Clinton’s criminality and her advocacy of big government in so many aspects of life convinced me she had to be defeated, and that Trump was the only real possibility. But whether he can actually reduce the resources that the federal government absorbs is hard to say, as he has his own spending priorities.

Trump favors deregulation generally, as it places an enormous burden on society’s ability to improve well being. This covers aspects of the Affordable Care Act and reducing the role of the federal government in education. He opposes the costly Paris Climate Accord and other intrusive federal environmental measures, such as wetlands regulation.

Obamacare repeal and replacement with market-oriented delivery of health care, insurance with broad choices, and equalized tax treatment across the employer and individual market segments via refundable tax credits. There is a chance that Trump’s preferred alternative will assign excessive responsibility to the federal government rather than markets, but I’m optimistic on this point.

Entitlement reform is a possibility. Social Security and Medicare are insolvent. Ideas about how future retirees might take advantage of market opportunities should be explored. This includes private retirement accounts with choices of investment direction and greater emphasis on alternatives like Medicare Advantage.

Tax reform of some kind is on Trump’s agenda. This is likely to involve lower corporate and individual tax rates and some tax simplification. It is likely to stimulate economic growth from both the demand and the supply sides. In the short-run, traditional demand-side macroeconomic analysis would suggest that upward price pressures could arise. However, by encouraging saving and investment, the economy’s production capacity would increase, mitigating price pressure in the longer run.

Trump favors border security. No mystery here. My enthusiasm for this is not based on a physical wall at the border. That might come and it might be very costly. I favor a liberalized but controlled flow of immigration and vetting of all immigrants. The recent order of a temporary hold on refugees from a short list of countries will be of concern if it is not short-lived, and it remains to be seen what “extreme vetting” will entail. Nevertheless, I support enhanced integrity of our borders and our right as a nation to be cautious about who enters.

Education reform and school choice. Increased spending on public education, especially at the federal level, has made no contribution to educational productivity, and the country is burdened with too many failing schools.

Encouraging private infrastructure. This relies on private incentives to build and finance  infrastructure based on users’ willingness to pay, thereby avoiding stress on public funding capacity.

Deregulating energy: This includes encouraging zero-carbon nuclear power, deregulation of fossil fuels, and lower energy costs.

Deregulating financial institutions. Repeal of the burdensome Dodd-Frank Act, which has imposed costs on both banks and consumers with little promise of a benefit in terms of financial stability.

Unabashed support for Israel. I strongly favor repairing our damaged ties with Israel and the proposed move of our embassy to West Jerusalem, which has been a part of Israel proper since its founding. Israel is the only real democracy in the middle east and a strong ally in an extremely dangerous part of the globe.

Trump supports Second Amendment rights. This is fundamental. Private gun ownership is the single-best line of self-defense, especially for those with the misfortune to live in areas rife with black market drug activity.

States’ rights and federalism. On a range of issues, Trump seems amenable to transferring more responsibility to states, rather than asserting federal supremacy on issues that are unsettled from region-to-region.

Ending federal funding for abortion. Tax dollars should not be used for a purpose that is morally abhorrent to a large segment of the population. This is not the same as the “right” to abort a child, as settled by Roe vs. Wade.

Putting the screws to the UN. This organization is not aligned with U.S. interests, yet the U.S. foots a large part of the bill for its activities. Sharp reductions in funding would be a powerful message.

Reduced federal funding for the arts. I’ve never been comfortable with allowing the federal government to disburse funds in support of the arts. Lower levels of government are less objectionable, where there is greater accountability to local voters. Dependence on federal purse strings creates a powerful line of influence that usurps authority and may conflict with the desires of local taxpayers. Individuals pay for art voluntarily if they find it of value, and people give privately to support the arts for the same reason. Federal taxpayers certainly have other valued uses for the funds. Art is not a “public good” in a strict sense, and its external benefits, to the extent they exist, do not justify a federal role.

Reversing the FCC’s net neutrality rules. Trump has appointed Ajit Pai as the new chairman of the FCC. Pai is no fan of net neutrality, a policy that rewards heavy users of network capacity and is likely to discourage the growth of network infrastructure.

I’m Not Sure How To Rate the Following

Foreign policy reset. I welcome several likely foreign policy initiatives from the Trump Administration, such as deemphasizing our role in the UN, restoring our relationship with Israel, and taking a harder line on nuclear development by Iran. I also favor greater scrutiny of outlays for foreign aid, much of which is subject to graft by recipient governments. However, I would not welcome a continuation of foreign policy designed around U.S. strategic interests that are, in fact, private investments.

Defense build-up. Our armed forces have suffered a decline in their ability to defend the country during the Obama years. I favor some restoration of the defense budget, but I am concerned that Trump will go on a defense binge. I’m also concerned about how aggressively he’ll wish to project American power overseas. Let’s not go to war!

Upending Trade Partnerships. I am a free-trader, and I abhor Trump’s belligerent talk about erecting trade barriers. So how could I be “unsure” about anything that promotes trade? Formal trade partnerships between nations are an aggravation to me because governments don’t trade… people do! And they do because they reap unambiguous benefits from trade. I’d much rather the U.S. simply eliminated all trade barriers unilaterally than get entangled in complicated trade agreements. These agreements are rats nests. They stipulate all sorts of conditions that are not trade related, such as environmental rules and labor policy. I therefore view them as a compromise to sovereignty and a potential impediment to economic growth. To the extent that trade agreements can be renegotiated in our favor, I should not complain. And to the extent that we’ll never see a government allow completely free and open trade, I should probably hope for agreements that at least reduce trade barriers.

The Keystone pipeline. I am happy with Trump’s decision to approve completion of the pipeline on its merits for energy delivery, and also because it is environmentally less risky than rail, barge and container ships. And yes, it is private infrastructure. But I am unhappy about the heavy application of eminent domain against landowners in the path of the pipeline. The Standing Rock Sioux tribe’s opposition is suspect because the path does not cross its tribal land, and the tribe originally gave its consent to the project. The tribe’s recent position could be an effort to extract rents from the process.

Executive authority. I am somewhat wary of Trump’s aggressiveness thus far. He seems eager to take actions that are questionable under existing law, such as seizing wire-transfer remittances by undocumented immigrants. Granted, he is busy “undoing” some of Obama’s actions, but let’s hope he doesn’t get carried away.

Summary

What we have here is a very mixed bag of policies. On the whole, I’m still pleased that Trump was elected. I believe he favors a smaller role for government in most affairs. But while the balance of considerations listed above seems to be in Trump’s favor, the negatives have the potential to be disastrous. He certainly wants to spend. My biggest fears, however, are that Trump will not respect the Constitution, that he will govern as a cronyist, and that he will succumb to the notion that he can actively manage the economy like a casino build.

Trade Enragement Syndrome

31 Sunday Jul 2016

Posted by Nuetzel in Free Trade, Protectionism

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Bernie Sanders, Capital Account Surplus, Don Boudreaux, Donald Trump, Free trade, Geocentrism, Heliocentrism, Import Competition, monopoly power, NAFTA, Protectionism, Trade Deficit, Trans-Pacific Partnership

tradebarriers

Trade makes us richer, not poorer. The anti-trade rhetoric spouted by neo-mercantilists like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders is about as sensible as a boycott on goods produced in the next town, or for that matter, on anyone with whom one might otherwise choose to trade. Don Boudreaux perfectly captures my feelings about the rising trend of protectionist sentiment by comparing it to geocentrism:

“Lately I feel as I imagine an astronomer would today feel if, centuries after Copernicus and Galileo proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that the earth isn’t the center of the solar system, large numbers of people – including popular media pundits and politicians – began to insist that the sun and the planets and the stars do indeed all revolve around a stationary earth that is situated in the center of the universe.“

The very motivation for trade is to obtain something of value that one did not produce, to acquire that which one cannot easily acquire without trade, or to acquire it on more favorable terms than otherwise. It recognizes the reality that one’s productive efforts should be focused in an area that best suits their skills or natural talents. That’s better for the individual and better for society! Countries should produce what they are best at producing, which gives them a cost advantage in their areas of specialization. Trade allows individuals and nations to specialize in production but diversify in consumption, allowing them to enjoy access to the broadest possible range of goods and services produced worldwide.

The consummation of any trade heralds the attainment of mutual benefits to the parties: one produces and employs at a profit; the other consumes a thing of greater value than the price paid. The payments for foreign goods must come from either domestically-produced goods or from foreign investment in domestic real estate, buildings, factories or other real and financial assets. That is, if we purchase more goods from abroad than we export, then foreigners must either hold the dollars they receive or invest them in other ways. The latter represent trades in assets, and those trades, too, are mutually beneficial. The result is that U.S. investors gain and/or the economy benefits from new, productivity-enhancing plant and equipment, not terrible outcomes. Trade deficits are balanced by capital surpluses, and trade surpluses are balanced by capital deficits. Taken together, trade in goods and capital (assets) always balance and are mutually beneficial in every case, whether we run a trade deficit or a surplus.

That said, it’s worth emphasizing that so-called free trade agreements are something of a sham. Countries don’t trade. People do. Unfortunately, I have indulged the notion of national trade negotiation in the past, if only implicitly, by vouching for trade agreements like NAFTA and TPP as sort of second-best solutions to the horrid reality of trade restrictions promulgated by protectionist politicians. I reasoned that dismantling those barriers, one-country (or region) at-a-time was preferable to doing nothing. However, negotiations like these become mired in extraneous issues such as environmental policies, labor laws, immigration rules and other commercial policies. Nor do those negotiations always inhibit domestic subsidies to politically-favored activities. Indeed, they might actually encourage subsidies for value-eroding projects. Again, the entire process of trade negotiations is extraneous to the extent that trade takes place between individuals. Unfettered gains from trade require the absence of trade barriers. Dropping them unilaterally would benefit consumers, encourage efficiency by domestic producers, and provide a great example for other nations.

Opponents of trade, like Messrs. Trump and Sanders, lack a basic understanding of the reasons why individuals engage in cooperative exchange. Or at least they fail to acknowledge, for political reasons or sheer density, that what improves well-being at home is freedom to transact, across our borders as well as within our borders. To prevent this activity is to forcibly deny individual freedom. Boudreaux makes this point be asking trade opponents a series of questions, the first few of which are listed below:

“– Are you made richer if the supermarket … at which you once shopped hires armed goons to force you to start shopping there again?

– Do you believe that the owners and the employees of [that store] are so ethically entitled to your continuing patronage as a consumer that they are justified in employing armed goons to prevent you from shopping elsewhere?

– Do you believe that, now that [the store] has successfully forced you not to shop at competing supermarkets, that the owners and employees … will work as diligently and as creatively as possible to keep the prices they charge low and the quality of their service high?

– Do you believe that the higher profits and higher wages reaped by [the store’s] owners and workers as a result of their holding you hostage as a customer make you more prosperous?

– Do you believe that the higher profits and higher wages reaped by [the store’s] owners and workers as a result of their holding you hostage as a customer make your community more prosperous, even though [the store’s] higher profits and higher wages are necessarily funded by money that you and other … ‘customers’ are forced not to spend on other goods, services, or investment options?

– If you believe that [the store] has a right to force you not to shop for food at other supermarkets, do you believe also that [the store] has a right to force you not to grow more of your own food, or not to eat out more often at restaurants, or not to go on a diet?“

It is difficult to believe that educated people believe restrictions on the freedom of individuals to cooperate with others will improve their well being. Of course, those educated people are often politicians who stand to benefit from frightening voters, and who have no interest in reminding them that a flow of foreign goods broadens choices, reduces prices, and provides valuable discipline to domestic businesses. Without competitive discipline, we forgo important benefits and instead allow quality and price to come under the arrogant power of monopolists. There are, of course, many producers who are willing to provide meaningful support to politicians who will protect them from foreign competition. That’s not capitalism. Its cronyism!

 

Should Foreign Goods Be Pricey?

18 Thursday Jun 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Free Trade

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Caroline Baum, Don Boudreaux, Fast Track Authority, Free trade, Intellectual Property Rights, Mercantilism, Protectionism, Trade Promotion Authority, Trans-Pacific Partnership

barriers-to-trade-us

Even ardent supporters of the Pacific trade deal get one thing wrong consistently: promoting free trade is not so much about domestic producers, jobs and export promotion as it is about consumers, prices and improved access to imports. The latter are the real rewards of trade, while the former are more appropriately viewed as payments. This was the subject of “Free Trade Lets You Make a Deal” on Sacred Cow Chips in April., in which I quoted Greg Mankiw:

“A nation benefits from imports, [Adam Smith] argued, because they expand its opportunities for consumption. Exports are necessary only because other nations have the temerity to want to be paid for the goods they provide.“

Free trade is a process of exploiting exchanges that are mutually beneficial, but based on the commentary in the press and social media, one would think it was something harmful. You could hardly blame anyone from drawing that impression based on the way governments negotiate trade deals. Last month, Don Boudreaux had a humorous take on this in “If Buying A Car Were Like Negotiating A Trade Deal“. The parties just can’t tolerate a better deal!

To draw another analogy, when IKEA opens a store in a new town, consumers are excited about the goods available there, and about the new shopping experience. When the circus comes to town, people are thrilled by the “imported” entertainment. They are not especially antagonized about the extra spending this might entail, or the extra hours they might have to work in order to afford it. Of course, the cheaper, the better. Yet when it comes to foreign trade, the general commentary turns this logic on its head: you’d think our concerns centered around a desire for more expense and that our access to new goods is a nuisance!

Opposition to trade deals among progressives is based on classic protectionist sentiment. This usually ends in protecting rents earned by interests that would rather not face competition. Nothing could be more corporatist in its effect. But it is obviously counter-productive to argue in support of industries that cannot compete internationally, so opponents retreat to accusations that trading partners cheat by selling below cost or manipulating their currencies. If so, those policies represent gifts to the U.S. It would be wonderful for the country if the flow of gifts from abroad continued indefinitely, but that is not sustainable. As matters are rationalized over time, and they will be, opportunities will present themselves to U.S. producers, who may well be in better stead by virtue of the earlier gifts from abroad. Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth by favoring domestic rent seekers.

Like Boudreaux, I support trade deals like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) “with my nose held tightly“. Deals like this generally do reduce trade barriers, though they invariably involve politically-motivated nonsense like the imposition of cross-country rules and regulations that negate some of the economic gains.

Caroline Baum has a good summary of legislation related to the TPP, which involves the president’s “fast-track” negotiating authority as well as assistance to “workers who are adversely affected by a trade agreement“. The trade deal, fast track and trade assistance have created strange political bedfellows and estrangements. Baum notes the confusion surrounding the real benefits of trade from fast track’s biggest proponent:

“Obama’s entire trade pitch – ‘the more we sell abroad, the more jobs we create at home’ – is a thinly disguised mercantilist argument: the idea that a country can export its way to prosperity. It’s a mistake to think that the advantages of free trade are limited to the export side.“

Some otherwise strong supporters of free trade are opposed to granting Obama fast-track authority, despite the fact that the last six presidents have had that authority. I am as skeptical about Obama’s leadership and negotiating skills as anyone, and I have little faith that he would keep sight of the main objective, were he actually sitting at the negotiating table. That would be lower trade barriers, not the environment or any other intrusion into the domestic policies of other parties to the deal. If our domestic regulatory standards are tougher or involve greater expense than those abroad, that should be afforded by greater U.S. productivity, not by making our producers uncompetitive on international markets. And if that is the case, our standards should be reassessed, we should recognize the prohibitive impact that our standards could have on the costs of our trading partners, and we should hope for those partners to eliminate any additional barriers to our goods.

I am also opposed to making the trade deal hinge on the extension of tougher intellectual property (IP) rights to poor Asian nations, though that is certain to be part of the negotiations.  There is disagreement among economists about whether such an extension of IP rights would be good or bad.

I would like to see Congress grant Obama fast-track authority, but only because Congress will still have the authority to approve or reject a final deal. The promise of reductions in trade barriers is unequivocally positive. We’ll have to evaluate the downside when the deal goes before Congress.

Free Trade Lets You Make a Deal

29 Wednesday Apr 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Free Trade

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Alan Blinder, Bryan Caplan, Economists agree, Fast Track Authority, Free trade, Greg Mankiw, Murphy's Law of Economic Policy, Trade Liberalization, Trans-Pacific Partnership, Tyler Cowan

tariff_cartoon

“Economists have the least influence on policy where they know the most and are most agreed; they have the most influence on policy where they know the least and disagree most vehemently.”

And what a shame! That quote is Alan Blinder’s Murphy’s Law of economic policy, provided by Greg Mankiw in the New York Times. Mankiw’s article, “Economists Actually Agree on This: The Wisdom of Free Trade“, discusses the prospective Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), an agreement that would liberalize trade between the U.S. and a number of Asian nations. A bill is before Congress that would give President Obama “fast track” authority to negotiate the deal. Some provisions of TPP are settled in principle, such as reduced tariffs, free trade unions, a reduced role for the state in the economy, and more transparency. Admittedly, it feels odd to advocate for Barack Obama to negotiate over less government — not to mention transparency!

As Mankiw says, “Among economists, the issue is a no-brainer.” Just as individuals voluntarily engage in trade because it is mutually beneficial, nations should engage in trade when they can specialize in their areas of comparative advantage. Liberalized trade, including reductions in tariffs and removal of quotas and other obstructions, ultimately brings more goods at lower prices. And ultimately, trade liberalization is not really about nations trading with one another. Rather, it is about liberating individuals to trade freely with one another across international borders.

Passage of fast-track authority is not assured. A great deal of nonsense has been written about the agreement. Oddly, people have a big hang-up about imports, but Mankiw notes that this is precisely wrong:

“A nation benefits from imports, [Adam Smith] argued, because they expand its opportunities for consumption. Exports are necessary only because other nations have the temerity to want to be paid for the goods they provide.“

Again, economists across the idealogical spectrum agree with this perspective. Mankiw offers three reasons, attributed to Bryan Caplan, for the public’s ambivalence to free trade:

“The first is an anti-foreign bias. People tend to view their own country in competition with other nations and underestimate the benefits of dealing with foreigners. Yet economics teaches that international trade is not like war but can be win-win.

The second is an anti-market bias. People tend to underestimate the benefits of the market mechanism as a guide to allocating resources. Yet history has taught repeatedly that the alternative — a planned economy — works poorly.

The third is a make-work bias. People tend to underestimate the benefit from conserving on labor and thus worry that imports will destroy jobs in import-competing industries. Yet long-run economic progress comes from finding ways to reduce labor input and redeploying workers to new, growing industries.“

Tyler Cowan is enthusiastic about the prospects for some of the poorest Asian nations to benefit from TPP, especially Vietnam. I seem to recall that he likes the cuisine! Cowan says: “Do you get that, progressives? Poorest country = biggest gainer.“

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Blogs I Follow

  • Ominous The Spirit
  • Passive Income Kickstart
  • OnlyFinance.net
  • TLC Cholesterol
  • Nintil
  • kendunning.net
  • DCWhispers.com
  • Hoong-Wai in the UK
  • Marginal REVOLUTION
  • Stlouis
  • Watts Up With That?
  • Aussie Nationalist Blog
  • American Elephants
  • The View from Alexandria
  • The Gymnasium
  • A Force for Good
  • Notes On Liberty
  • troymo
  • SUNDAY BLOG Stephanie Sievers
  • Miss Lou Acquiring Lore
  • Your Well Wisher Program
  • Objectivism In Depth
  • RobotEnomics
  • Orderstatistic
  • Paradigm Library

Blog at WordPress.com.

Ominous The Spirit

Ominous The Spirit is an artist that makes music, paints, and creates photography. He donates 100% of profits to charity.

Passive Income Kickstart

OnlyFinance.net

TLC Cholesterol

Nintil

To estimate, compare, distinguish, discuss, and trace to its principal sources everything

kendunning.net

The Future is Ours to Create

DCWhispers.com

Hoong-Wai in the UK

A Commonwealth immigrant's perspective on the UK's public arena.

Marginal REVOLUTION

Small Steps Toward A Much Better World

Stlouis

Watts Up With That?

The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change

Aussie Nationalist Blog

Commentary from a Paleoconservative and Nationalist perspective

American Elephants

Defending Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness

The View from Alexandria

In advanced civilizations the period loosely called Alexandrian is usually associated with flexible morals, perfunctory religion, populist standards and cosmopolitan tastes, feminism, exotic cults, and the rapid turnover of high and low fads---in short, a falling away (which is all that decadence means) from the strictness of traditional rules, embodied in character and inforced from within. -- Jacques Barzun

The Gymnasium

A place for reason, politics, economics, and faith steeped in the classical liberal tradition

A Force for Good

How economics, morality, and markets combine

Notes On Liberty

Spontaneous thoughts on a humble creed

troymo

SUNDAY BLOG Stephanie Sievers

Escaping the everyday life with photographs from my travels

Miss Lou Acquiring Lore

Gallery of Life...

Your Well Wisher Program

Attempt to solve commonly known problems…

Objectivism In Depth

Exploring Ayn Rand's revolutionary philosophy.

RobotEnomics

(A)n (I)ntelligent Future

Orderstatistic

Economics, chess and anything else on my mind.

Paradigm Library

OODA Looping

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