Tag Archives: President Trump

UFOs and the Crisis Seeking State

26 Friday Mar 2021

Posted by in Extraterrestrial Life, Government

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Happy with the government’s management of the pandemic? Happy with how much government grew during the pandemic? How well do you think governments would manage our realization that we have nearby extraterrestrial observers? It’s hard to know what that would mean for our future, but such a presence could well pose a singular menace to humanity. It might ignite panic, to say nothing of the bedlam that would ensue with the actual ingress of extraterrestrials or their intelligent machinery.

How would governments handle it? If the pandemic is any guide, my guess is they would follow the authoritarian impulse. For our own safety, that is. Hoarding and shortages of key goods might ensue. Curfews and stay-at-home orders would be seen as a way to limit civil disorder. Depending on the perceived threat, draconian measures such as limiting the use of electronics and communication devices might be considered. No telling what might seem appropriate to political leaders, but a military component to the response is much more likely than under a pandemic, and not just because of the external threat.

Let’s assume we’re talking about observers, not battalions of landing parties. A lot would depend on what’s known about them, or more specifically what the government knows. Why are they probing our atmosphere? Why are they studying our planet and our civilization? Are they waiting for a larger force to arrive? Can their machines self-replicate using resources mined from elsewhere in the solar system? Of course, the reaction of the public depends on how the government characterizes the presence of our observers. That gap in knowledge is of great concern.

But let’s take a step back. Is it real? We know the pandemic was “real”, but many question its true severity and the appropriateness of stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions, including yours truly. Some would say the government’s response was opportunistic, calibrated to force a change in political leadership, and calibrated to transform the role of government in our lives as well as attitudes about that role. Now imagine the opportunity for even more drastic change in the role of government given the prospect of an intersection with a potentially grabby alien civilization!

Like many others, I am fascinated by the possibility of life beyond our planet. Discussions of the Drake equation and the Fermi paradox are like candy to me. UFO sightings are always a matter of curiosity, except now we’re learning to call them “unexplained aerial phenomena” (UAPs) under guidance from government and military authorities. Lately, we’re hearing a lot about UAPs observed and filmed by military aircraft and detected by other forms of telemetry. These admissions are considered a sea change in the government’s attitude toward sharing sensitive, and possibly socially disruptive, information with the public. By June 1, a large batch of information on additional UAP sightings is due to be released under the Intelligence Authorization Act of 2021, which was signed into law by President Trump in December.

I’m as curious as anyone, but there are many reasons to be skeptical about UAP sightings, at least insofar as entertaining the possibility that these are extraterrestrial beings or machines. For example, there are natural (and technical) explanations for the images seen in the Navy videos. But some have speculated that these are sightings of top-secret technologies developed by an agency of the federal government such as the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (DARPA). A former Pentagon UFO Program Chief dismisses that as improbable. Well, if you say so. Another possibility is that a foreign government has leaped far ahead of the U.S. in the science of flight. That would be threatening to U.S. security, though perhaps not as threatening as the machinery of an interstellar expeditionary force.

Whether the potential threat is an intersection with extraterrestrials or simply advanced technology possessed by an earthbound adversary, might it be in the interests of certain factions to promote our vulnerability? Or to manufacture evidence of such a vulnerability? Forgive my tin-foil hat, but I think the answer is yes. For example, it would be an opportunity for the defense establishment to garner more funding. It’s also a potential opportunity for those who wish to impose a more authoritarian order. There is always something to be gained from potential threats, so much so that major segments of our society seem to thrive on them. But is that what’s happening?

Defense funding is one thing, but the kinds of threats in question might call for widespread actions on public safety at all levels of government. Federal funding will be required to meet these needs, after all, and only the federal government can print money to create the means of competing for resources with the private sector. This is consistent with other federal initiatives that, beyond their stated public purposes, seem almost designed to eviscerate the power of state and local governments:

“The plan to federalize government is already moving and has three parts:

  • Flood every unit of local government with federal cash, irrespective of need, while prohibiting tax cuts, thereby bailing out failing states and cities.
  • Make that flood of federal money made regular and permanent.
  • Annul or override state laws that make certain states competitive, thereby eliminating their competitive advantages, and federalize elections to make it all permanent.”

The third point has as much relevance in the context of any threat to our security as did the pandemic. Once lower levels of government are dependent on federal funds, there is little they can do to resist federal demands. The more credible the threat of an incursion by an extraterrestrial or foreign force with awesome technological power, the more likely are voters to accept expansive programs to enhance their safety, including assistance to lower levels of government for providing various forms of local protection … the federal way.

The pandemic did little to promote faith in the government’s ability to manage a crisis. Nevertheless, look no further than the federal budget explosion induced by the pandemic for evidence that advocates of expansive government did not let the crisis go to waste. Will they want new crises? I’m sure they will. There’s certainly a possibility that a drummed-up threat from UAP’s would be a candidate down the road. It might need a little more percolation, but make no mistake: it has potential value to statists.

I still prefer to call them UFOs, and it’s still fun to think about them, but if they’re “real”, or even if they belong to a foreign power, we might be in big trouble. If they’re not “real”, our own state actors might toy with us enough to make us wish we’d never heard of UFOs.

Tragic Atlanta Shootings and The Drive To Divide

20 Saturday Mar 2021

Posted by in Critical Race Theory, racism

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The shooting of eight people at three massage parlors in the Atlanta area last week has become a lightning rod for those who bemoan racism against Asians. Except that the shooting had absolutely nothing to do with racism! The killer, Robert Aaron Long, describes himself as deeply religious but a sex addict. He said his actions were retaliation against establishments that had tempted him. The victims included six women of Korean extraction and two whites, one of the latter a male who was apparently a passer-by. A Latino woman was injured.

Andrew Sullivan describes the adoption of a pseudo-reality by the media based on critical race theory: Asians have struggled against prejudice in the West. The killer was white and most of the victims were Asians. Ergo, white supremacy must lie at the heart of this monstrosity:

“Accompanying one original piece on the known facts, the NYT ran nine — nine! — separate storiesabout the incident as part of the narrative that this was an anti-Asian hate crime, fueled by white supremacy and/or misogyny. Not to be outdone, the WaPo ran sixteen separate stories on the incident as an anti–Asian white supremacist hate crime. Sixteen! One story for the facts; sixteen stories on how critical race theory would interpret the event regardless of the facts. For good measure, one of their columnists denounced reporting of law enforcement’s version of events in the newspaper, because it distracted attention from the ‘ real’ motives. Today, the NYT ran yet another full-on critical theory piece disguised as news on how these murders are proof of structural racism and sexism — because some activists say they are.”

Make no mistake: there are racists against Asians in this country, as I discuss below, but this was the work of an individual unable to control his sex drive, deeply ashamed of it, and a psychopath to boot. Yet the urge to virtue signal is so strong that people who should know better immediately ascribed racist motives to the killer. Corporate America is only too eager to endorse the pseudo-reality: the CEO’s of Goldman Sachs, Blackrock, J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo, and many other corporate leaders issued statements tying the Atlanta shootings to racism against Asians.

The Goldman CEO, David Solomon, posted a statement on LinkedIn (which I’m now unable to locate) that was interesting in several respects: it came shortly after the release of a damaging survey of junior bankers, not a few of whom are Asian, who complained of 100-hour work weeks and frequent verbal abuse by managers. Nevertheless, a number of Goldman employees, including a number of Asians, posted adoring responses to the post. One woman was indignant because she felt the shootings illustrated racism manifest in the stereotyping of Asian women as sex objects. Of course I know of men who seem particularly attracted to Asian women, but can that really be construed as racism? I’m not the least bit convinced.

Equally unconvincing are claims that obvious criticisms of the Chinese government are racist, or that they encourage violence against Chinese americans or people of Chinese extraction. That includes President Trump’s references to the “China virus”, as well as the ridiculous charges against Tom Smith, a law professor at the University of San Diego.

As I noted above, racism against Asians is real, but who harbors it? We know that a number of elite academic institutions are actively discriminating against Asians in their admissions practices, and critical race theorists are only too eager to ascribe the academic and economic success of Asians as “white adjacency”. In this context, they’ve also been willing to exploit Asians as a so-called “model minority” in something of a variation on “Uncle Tom” epithets. As for violent crimes against Asians, Andrew Sullivan provides some statistics at the link above. Asians are victimized by whites, blacks, Latinos, and other Asians, but blacks, who represent about 13% of the U.S. population, account for a disproportionately high 27.5% of violent crimes against Asians. Is that racism or mere criminal opportunism? Of course, the pattern is a legitimate area of inquiry.

I implore my Asian friends to reject the baited narrative that the Atlanta shootings were motivated by white racism. Let’s be honest about calling mental illness what it is, and naming things accurately when we see them. Here are some closing words from Wenyuan Wu, Executive Director of Californians for Equal Rights:

“Conflating an attack on Asian Americans with claims of ‘white supremacism’ and systemic racism is dangerous. It seeks to foster a victimhood mentality among all Americans of Asian descent, eroding social solidarity and trust. At a minimum, choking up all present and past injustices to racism, while proselytizing the model minority myth for Asians, is dishonest.”

The Opportunity of Skewed Coronavirus Transmission

30 Monday Mar 2020

Posted by in economic growth, Pandemic

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People talk about the transmission rate or reproduction rate (R0) of Covid-19 as if it’s a single number that applies to the entire population. John Cochrane emphasizes the huge implications of this misperception for how best to prevent the spread of the virus, and at lower cost, and for how best to “restart” the economy.

First, however, lets dispense with the absolutist position that there can be no compromise on virus mitigation in favor of economic activity. I am not opposed to the “lockdown” we are now living, but it will have significant and unnecessary costs if it goes on too long: the lost output is a huge blow not only to our current lifestyles but to our ability to grow in the future, or even to afford better health care in the future. Beyond that, the lockdown has immediate negative impacts of its own on public health: economic stress leads to all kinds of terrible health outcomes like heart disease and even suicide. About the latter, the President is absolutely correct: if you need research to prove it, see here, here, here, and here, all respected journals (the links all courtesy of The Federalist.) Economic stress and isolation is quite likely to promote poor dietary habits, lethargy, and possibly family dysfunction as well. Don’t pretend there aren’t real tradeoffs between the economy, virus interventions, and public health. The trick is to improve those tradeoffs. A balance can and must be struck, and depending on policy actions, the tradeoff can be made better or worse.

Back to the virus reproduction rate: the R0 values we see quoted are estimates of the average number of other people infected by each infected person. A value of three means that each person infected with the virus passes it on to three others, on average. If R0 is greater than one, an epidemic grows. If R0 is less than one, a contagion recedes. It becomes a “non-epidemic” if R0 remains less than one. It does not have to be zero (and probably cannot be zero).

But not everyone is the same: my R0 is different from your R0 if only because we have different occupational exposure to others and different levels of social engagement. We also differ physiologically, which probably leads to differences in our “personal” R0 values. And an individual’s R0 will differ by time and place, depending on random circumstances like which way the wind is blowing. But here is where it gets interesting. Cochrane describes an extreme version of the skewed distribution shown at the top of this post:

“Suppose there are 100 people with a 0.5 reproduction rate, and 1 super-spreader with a 100 replication rate. The average reproduction rate is 1.5. Clearly, locking everyone down is wildly inefficient. It’s much more important to find the 1 super-spreader and lock him or her down, or change the business or behavior that’s causing the super-spreading.

This is exaggerated, but not far off the mark. I have not seen numbers on the distribution of reproduction rates across people, but it is a fair bet that it has an extremely fat tail. Most of us are washing our hands, social distancing, work in businesses that are shut down or are taking great steps to limit contact. And a few people and activities contribute to most of the spread.

This wide and fat-tailed dispersion is ignored in a lot of simulations I’ve seen. They take the average reproduction rate as the same for everyone. That’s a big mistake.

The danger: we waste a huge amount of time and money moving you and me from a 0.5 reproduction rate to an 0.4 reproduction rate. …  The opportunity: focus on the super-spreaders, and the super-spreading activities, and you bring down the reproduction rate at much lower cost. “

There are many ways to reduce R0. Cochrane gets a little more specific about this and the policy implications of the skewed R0 distribution across individuals:

“All we need is to get the transmission rate under one. Activities with possible but very low transmission rates, and high economic benefits should go on. Don’t separate to ‘essential’ and ‘non-essential.’ Separate into ‘high likelihood of transmission’ and ‘low likelihood of transmission.’

Why are we not using masks everywhere? Sure, they’re not perfect. Sure, an old hankerchief might only cut the chance of transmission by half. We’re not all surgeons. Cutting by half is enough to stop the virus. 

Conversely, why did they close the state parks? Really? Just how dangerous is it to drive the dog to a hiking trail and stay 6 feet away from other people? Parks, ski areas, golf courses, all sorts of businesses that surely can be run with a reproduction rate far less than one are just shut down. I met a realtor on our dog walk yesterday. They’re totally shut down. Just how hard is it to run a realty business with a 0.5 reproduction rate? One family in the house at a time, don’t touch anything, an hour between showings, stay 6 feet from the realtor… But instead the whole business is just shut down.”

The beginning of that last paragraph echoes a point I made in my last post about public park closures and the health benefits of getting outside generally.

Cochrane goes on to discuss several other policy options, including the potential benefits of simple kinds of testing and the overemphasis on false negatives and positives in policy discussions. Imperfect tests should not be discouraged by these concerns. If you’re worried about that, you shouldn’t use a thermometer either!

“Stay-at-home” or “shelter-in-place” orders will increasingly be tested by private parties if they remain in effect too long. That will be encouraged by the seemingly arbitrary distinctions some orders make between “essential” and “non-essential” activities. If workers or small businessmen judge themselves to be at low risk, they will take matters into their own hands to the extent they can. I believe that’s already happening where the specifics of “lockdown” orders have gone too far.  Workers at the low end of the income spectrum are especially hard hit by these orders. One can hardly blame them for trying to earn what they can if they believe, and their customers believe, their activities and interactions are of low risk.

Ultimately, the entire distribution of R0s will slide to the left. That will occur even at low levels of “herd immunity” and anything that offers at least weak prophylaxis. Broadly speaking, the latter includes maintaining distance, refusing admittance to venues with a fever, avoiding handshakes, wearing masks, and potentially chloroquine, which is already in widespread use by physicians treating coronavirus patients. Ultimately, a vaccine will slide the distribution far to the left, but the economy need not be held hostage until that time. To paraphrase Cochrane, we can get the transmission rate below one and keep it there without stopping the world permanently. There are many options, and now is the time for business and government to start planning for that.