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Election Snafus, Fraud: Invite and They Will Come

12 Wednesday Aug 2020

Posted by pnoetx in Democracy, Pandemic, Voter Fraud

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

19th Amendment, Absentee Ballots, Amy Klobuchar, Atlantic County NJ, Ballot Harvesting, CalTech, CBS, Charles Stewart III, Eric Boehm, European Union, Fraud Risk, J Christian Adams, Logan Churchwell, Mail-In Voting, Mark Harris, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, New York Times, PILF, Postal Voting, Public Interest Legal Foundation, Reason.com, Ron Wyden

There is understandable controversy over the prospect of more mail-in voting, but it’s reasonable to believe that some additional mail-in or postal voting may be necessary in light of the pandemic. Social distancing reduces the volume of activity that polling places can handle in a single day, and administrative decisions about the voting process can’t be deferred until late October in order to observe the state of the pandemic and make last-minute changes. Most states already permit voters to request a mail-in ballot for a variety of reasons: travel, illness, or other exigencies are usually sufficient, if a reason is even required. In the context of the pandemic, such a request should certainly be granted to those most concerned about contracting the coronavirus. So the option to vote by mail seems reasonable, at least in the abstract, as long as those who prefer to cast their ballots in person can do so.

“Universal” mail-in voting is another story, but the term first requires some qualification. I construe “universal” in this case to mean voting by citizens of the United States, a right protected and reserved to citizens by the 19th Amendment to the Constitution. That also means voters must be registered and must comply with state requirements for identification, if any, before receiving a ballot. In other words, under current state laws, a voter might be required to appear before an election authority to obtain a ballot for return by mail. The proponents of universal postal mail, however, seem to think states should simply mail ballots to the addresses of all registered voters. Many proponents go further, suggesting that all individuals of voting age should be mailed ballots.

The first major problem with a large expansion of postal voting is administrative complexity. It would represent a significant challenge for many jurisdictions to arrange in short order. It’s bound to create major delays in counting and reporting results, and it is likely to create doubt as to the reliability of the official election results. Here are some administrative issues and examples worth considering:

This recent experiment by CBS revealed delays in the official receipt of mailed ballots, a problem that will be more acute given plans in some jurisdictions to send ballots to postal voters only a week prior to the November election. The study also revealed some mis-sorting and misplacement of returned ballots. It concluded that a percentage of voters is likely to be “disenfranchised” by mail-in voting.

In early August, primary balloting by mail in Atlantic County, NJ was said to be especially problematic. Signatures on ballots were difficult to match to DMV records signed on “screen”; there was an extra step in delivering ballots to a central post office location and then on to election officials, causing delays; the voter registration system was plagued by technical glitches related to heavy demand for updated records; and there was insufficient time between sending ballots to voters and the deadline.

New York City’s primary election in June was similarly afflicted with a high rate of invalid mailed ballots. “The city BOE received 403,103 mail-in ballots for the June 23 Democratic presidential primary. … But the certified results released Wednesday revealed that only 318,995 mail-in ballots were counted. … That means 84,108 ballots were not counted or invalidated — 21 percent of the total. … One out of four mail-in ballots were disqualified for arriving late, lacking a postmark or failing to include a voter’s signature, or other defects. The Post reported Tuesday that roughly 30,000 mail-in ballots were invalidated in Brooklyn alone. … The high invalidation rate provides more proof that election officials and the Postal Service were woefully underprepared to handle and process the avalanche of mail-in ballots that voters were encouraged to fill out to avoid having to go to the polls during the coronavirus pandemic, critics said.”

From the New York Times, “In the last presidential election, 35.5 million voters requested absentee ballots, but only 27.9 million absentee votes were counted, according to a study [NYT link is bad] by Charles Stewart III, a political scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He calculated that 3.9 million ballots requested by voters never reached them; that another 2.9 million ballots received by voters did not make it back to election officials; and that election officials rejected 800,000 ballots. That suggests an overall failure rate of as much as 21 percent.”

The problem of rejected mail-in ballots is all too common throughout the country. For example, redistricting can cause mail-in voters to cast their votes in the wrong precinct at a higher rate; people move frequently, especially low-income voters, so updating voter rolls is a tremendous challenge; and voters often fail to follow instructions carefully, and there is no one at hand to offer assistance.

Again, these are just the administrative problems. The upshot is that mail-in voting is likely to introduce uncertainties and delays in determining election outcomes, and is likely to result in numerous legal challenges as well.

This piece by Eric Boehm in Reason is skeptical of our ability to vote by mail without major complications of that kind. Boehm then turns to the question of mail-in ballots and fraud, however, quoting a variety of experts who claim that election fraud is a miniscule problem and that fraud has not had a partisan bias in the past. But partisan bias is not really the critical issue… fraud is, party by party, district by district, and state by state.

Despite Boehm’s protestations and widespread denial in the news media, election fraud is a “thing”. More importantly, the risk of election fraud is a thing. It’s instructive that two U.S. Senators (Ron Wyden (OR) and Amy Klobuchar (MN)) have introduced legislation that not only would authorize more widespread voting by mail, but “ballot harvesting” as well. The latter is the practice of visiting homes and “offering” to collect residents’ postal ballots for delivery to collection points. It has been a flagrant form of vote fraud in the past.

So what is our experience with fraud? Here is a “sampling” of 1,290 cases of election fraud, many of which involved absentee ballots and ballot harvesting. Detail on most of these cases can be found here.

The following testimonial reinforces the ease with which fraud can be perpetrated via mail-in voting:”I know because I did it“:

“Last year, a political operative working for North Carolina Republican congressional candidate Mark Harris was charged with fraud for directing a group of people to fill out as many as one thousand absentee ballot requests on behalf of voters — most of whom were unaware the ballots were being requested. … These people then collected the ballots and filled them out themselves. … 

Also in 2019, a Democratic city clerk in Southfield, Michigan, was arrested and charged with six felonies for falsifying absentee ballot records to say that 193 of the ballots in one election were missing signatures or a return date, when in fact they had both. The correct records were found in the trash can in her office.

… J. Christian Adams of the Public Interest Legal Foundation (PILF) says if states aren’t careful, they’ll be issuing ‘an open invitation to fraud. … There are two big problems with vote by mail,’ Adams told InsideSources. ‘Number one … people voting the ballot for other people through undue influence. … The second one — the voter rolls are a mess.’ … Adams’ organization has sued several states and counties for refusing to maintain accurate voter rolls, allowing the names of thousands of dead voters, felons and non-citizens to remain in the system.”

Fraud risk always exists even if detected and proven levels of fraud are low, and the level of risk scales with the extent to which ballots are cast by mail. The sudden, massive expansion in mail-in voting now contemplated by some would create unprecedented opportunities for fraud.

Consider the 28 million mail-in ballots that went missing between 2012 and 2018, roughly 20% of mail-in ballots issued during those years. According to Logan Churchwell of PILF:

“So what do people that really focus on the election process do about that? They go into ballot harvesting. If there’s so many ballots out there in the wind unaccounted for by election officials, surely some manpower could be dedicated to go bring them in. And that’s another part of the system where you have weaknesses and risk.”

It takes only a small percentage of the vote to swing many elections, so ballot harvesting, enabled by more widespread voting-by-mail, is a serious threat to the integrity of the democratic process. The last link cites a few reports that should give mail voting proponents some pause:

“There’s little doubt that as the number of mail-in ballots increases, so does fraud. A 2012 report in The New York Times noted that voter fraud involving mail-in ballots ‘is vastly more prevalent than the in-person voting fraud that has attracted far more attention, election administrators say. In Florida, absentee-ballot scandals seem to arrive like clockwork around election time.’ According to a Wall Street Journal report on voter exploitation in Hispanic communities in Texas, mail-in ballots have ‘spawned a mini-industry of consultants who get out the absentee vote, sometimes using questionable techniques.’ Poor, elderly, and minority communities are most likely to be preyed upon by so-called ballot ‘brokers.’

Concerns about fraud in mail-in ballots were serious enough that a 2008 report produced by the CalTech/MIT Voting Technology Project recommended that states ‘restrict or abolish on-demand absentee voting in favor of in-person early voting.'”

It’s no coincidence that most countries in the European Union restrict mail-in voting to those who are unable to vote in-person, such as those working or studying abroad, as well as the sick and elderly. There are exceptions, of course, but many of these developed countries reject the notion that mail-in voting is worth the risks.

It’s reasonable to expect many cautious voters to request ballots for return by mail. But at a minimum, any large-scale transition to postal voting should be done with care for the security and integrity of the voting process. It is not an exercise to be done in haste, as proponents now demand. The result of such a drastic change would be significant delays, legal challenges, and reduced confidence in the outcome of elections. And there will almost certainly be fraud. As in almost all things, a voluntary option subject to jurisdictional risk controls is far preferable to either mandatory or “universal” postal voting.

The Excellent Electoral College

05 Friday Apr 2019

Posted by pnoetx in Constitution, Democracy

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Athenian Democracy, Athens, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke, Constitutional convention, Donald Trump, Edward Conway, Electoral College, Elizabeth Warren, Jon Gabriel, Quora, Tyranny of the Majority

So lacking is the average American’s knowledge of civics that they often react in shock to the suggestion that the United States was never intended to be a pure democracy. But unchecked democracy is not a system that can be counted upon to maintain stability, something the founders knew when they fashioned the country as a constitutional republic. This point bears emphasis given the recent calls to abolish the Electoral College (EC) by such Democrat luminaries as Elizabeth Warren and Beto O’Rourke. Others, like Socialist-cum-Democrat Bernie Sanders, say they want to “assess” the EC.

Jon Gabriel describes the EC as one of a series of stabilizing checks and balances embedded in our system of government. It served the purpose of balancing interests across diverse regional economies and sub-cultures:

“By distributing our presidential choice among 51 individual elections, nominees must appeal to a wide variety of voters with a wide variety of interests. Farmers in Wisconsin are important, as are retirees in Florida, factory workers in Pennsylvania, and shopkeepers in Arizona. White Evangelicals need to be courted in Charlotte, as do Latino Catholics in Mesa.

If the Electoral College were abandoned, party frontrunners would camp out exclusively in urban areas. The pancake breakfasts in Des Moines and Denver would be replaced with mammoth rallies in Los Angeles and New York City.”

So diverse were these interests in the late 1700s that it’s reasonable to assume that the Constitutional Convention would have failed without the creation of the EC. Today, no less, our country would be unlikely to survive the EC’s elimination. Why, for example, would voters in Missouri wish to allow the preferences of east and west coast voters to dominate federal policy-making?

Gabriel provides some interesting history giving emphasis to the notion of a tyranny of the majority under pure democracy:

“The world’s first democracy was ancient Athens, which allowed around 30,000 free adult male citizens to choose their leaders. They made up less than 15 percent of the population, but it was the most egalitarian political innovation to date.

Athen’s unbridled democracy, however, led to the very extremes that sowed its decline and defeat at the hands of enemies. This note from Edward Conway on Quora is instructive (his is the third commentary at the link; most of the others are helpful, but his is most succinct):

“… ancient Athenian democracy was purely a matter of votes: if you wanted to win a court case, or pass a law, or tax a group, or go to war, or massacre a large number of people, the only check was whether you could convince a majority of the citizens to vote in your favor. While there were means of checking individual people (see: Ostracon), this did nothing to check the power of the crowds, as it only removed one focus of this power.

Thus Athenian democracy never moved beyond the initial ‘UNLIMITED POWER!’ stage. Anyone who could convince the crowd to follow them had unchecked authority until they lost control of the crowd.

This led, predictably, to excesses: ‘Let’s attack Sparta!’, ‘Let’s invade Sicily!’, ‘Let’s ostracize our best general!’, etc.“

It’s interesting that the Athenian military was staffed by plebeians who found imperialistic actions to be profitable. Naturally, they voted to devote more resources to military incursions… until they were defeated. Allowing a large faction to vote on their own pay, and the taxes on others necessary to pay for it, can be a glaring defect of democracy. We see manifestations of the same phenomenon today in congressional pay raises and expansion of federal benefits for large segments of the population who pay no taxes.

Back to Gabriel:

As the saying goes, democracy is four wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. The Founders looked to Athens less as a political model than an object lesson in what not to do.

James Madison said that democracies are ‘incompatible with personal security or the rights of property; and have in general been as short in their lives as they have been violent in their deaths.’

The EC was a stroke of political genius: It allowed the delegates at the Constitutional Convention to reach a consensus, something that would probably be just as difficult to accomplish today as it was then. The EC transforms one federal election into 51 local elections, reducing the feasibility of tampering by the party in power at the federal level. It also reduces the incentive for electoral fraud in a national race because a greater margin of victory within a state cannot gain the votes of additional electors.

The noise regarding the EC is coming from just one side of the political aisle: Donald Trump’s electoral victory in 2016, and his reasonably good prospects for reelection in 2020, have inflamed the passions of Democrats, who are now grasping at any and all ways in which they might tilt the playing field their way. Relative to electoral votes, popular votes are heavily concentrated in the coastal “blue” states. Such a change in the rules of the game would certainly stand to benefit Democrats. Therefore, the debate looks suspiciously like it has nothing to do with “good governance” and electoral integrity, and everything to do with raw politics.

It’s useful to remember that the EC was an essential incentive for gaining the buy-in of smaller states to join the Union. It remains vitally important to states whose interests would likely be neglected if presidential politics was dominated by the coastal states. Fortunately, the founders invested the EC with durability: rescinding it would require a constitutional amendment. That could happen if two-thirds of the state legislatures agree to convene a constitutional convention. Or, it could be proposed by a two-thirds majority in both houses of Congress, then ratified by three-fourths of the state legislatures. Ain’t gonna happen.

 

Fraud-Free Voting Fallacy

26 Thursday Jan 2017

Posted by pnoetx in Democracy, Voter Fraud

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

ACORN, DiscoverTheNetworks.org, Donald Trump, Ed Driscoll, Electoral College, Electoral Studies, Fake News, Glenn Reynolds, Hillary Clinton, Immigration policy, Instapundit, Pew Center on the States, Voter Fraud, Voter ID


acorn-voter-fraud

I posted the following on December 1, 2016. It seems timely today. The bottom line: voter fraud is very unlikely to have swung the popular vote in favor of Hillary Clinton, but it is all too common.

Democrats have long asserted that voter fraud is rare. Recently, we heard from them that questioning the results of an election would “undermine democracy”. In fact, voter fraud is routinely characterized by the left as “fake news“, and even worse, as a racist narrative! How convenient. But in the wake of the Donald Trump victory, we’ve been hearing about electronic voter fraud from the same crowd that’s been imagining Ruskiis under their beds for months (to steal a phrase from Glenn Reynolds). Fear not: voting machines are not connected to the internet!

This week, however, Donald Trump stirred the pot once again by tweeting that he would have won the popular vote if not for the “millions” of illegal votes for Hillary Clinton. Hilarity ensued, and not only on the left. All the pundits say that Trump has no data to support his claim. He probably never looked for it, and he probably doesn’t care. As Ed Driscoll notes at Instapundit, perhaps “stray voltage” is simply part of his plan.

Trump’s claim really does sound outrageous, but a review of the recent history of actual and potential election fraud shows that it might not be as radically far-fetched as we’ve been told. DiscovertheNetworks.org (DTN) provides a three-part compilation of voter fraud research and cases spanning the last 30 years. Pertinent detail on each case or finding is provided, and each item is sourced. The cases span the country and include fraudulent voter registration efforts, dead and ineligible voters (including pets) on the rolls, multiple registrations across jurisdictions, homeless voters casting multiple votes, fraudulent absentee ballots, vote buying, voter impersonation, and failure to provide absentee ballots to deployed military personnel. ACORN, by the way, is well-represented on the list.

Many of the cases on DTN’s list involve anywhere from a handful of fraudulent votes to several hundred. Of course, it’s likely that only a small percentage of fraudulent votes are ever detected. But there are cases on the list of fraudulent registrations numbering in the thousands, and counts of ineligible voters appearing on voter rolls numbering in the hundreds of thousands and even millions.

One of the studies cited by DTN was commissioned by The Pew Center on the States, published in 2012. It found that there were 24 million invalid or “significantly inaccurate” voter registrations in the U.S. And just before every election, said the report, election officials are inundated with a flood of new and often questionable registrations.

Another study cited by DTN appeared in the journal Electoral Studies in 2014. It said “… based upon extrapolations from the portion of the sample with a verified vote … 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in 2008 ….” The authors admit that there are reasons to think 6.4% is an under-estimate. That’s especially true given the focus on immigration policy in this year’s presidential campaign. But if that percentage was repeated in this year’s election, and given 24 million non-citizen residents in the U.S. (legal and illegal), then roughly 1.4 million non-citizen votes would be included to the 2016 popular vote total. The researchers acknowledge that this group tends to vote heavily for democrats. The overlap between these votes and those arising from the other kinds of voter fraud by Pew is certainly not complete, so the fraudulent vote total is likely to be well north of 1.4 million.

The electoral college was designed to discourage voter fraud in states dominated by a single party. Vote margins beyond a simple majority provide no incremental reward in the electoral college, the reasoning goes. That doesn’t mean election fraud doesn’t occur in those states or that it isn’t motivated in part by presidential politics. Moreover, state and local races can still be contested in so-called “one-party” states and may be subject to manipulative efforts. In such cases, presidential votes might well ride on the coattails of candidates for state and local offices.

The recent tide of republican success in congressional races and at the state level does not suggest that election fraud is benefitting democrats in more highly contested states. Perhaps it goes the other way or is roughly balanced between the parties in those states. But most people who believe Trump’s tweet would probably say that fraud must be concentrated in heavily “blue” states like California and New York. If so, it would be unbalanced fraud.

The magnitude of voter fraud in the presidential election is plausibly in the range of 1 – 2 million and it could be even higher based on the research and other information cited above. That total, however, is split between the parties. For the sake of argument, if 2 million fraudulent ballots are cast and republicans garner 30%, or 600,000 fraudulent votes, then the contribution to the democrat vote margin is just 800,000 (1,400,000 – 600,000). Hillary Clinton’s popular vote margin was 2.9 million (less than the margin in California alone). Given that total, Trump’s claim is a real stretch, but his “guess” at the number of fraudulent votes is probably well within an order of magnitude. That might be surprising to some detractors.

What should be obvious is that voter fraud is a major problem in the U.S., and it undoubtedly swings some races at state and local levels. I have been lukewarm with respect to voter ID laws, but I am persuaded that they are a necessary step in the quest for electoral integrity. (Whether IDs must be government-issued is a separate matter.) The argument that these laws are discriminatory is true to the extent that we wish to prevent ineligible individuals from voting. That’s a good thing. The argument that it is racist is sheer stupidity: citizenship should bring privileges. That is not a position on immigration policy. Voter ID laws place a simple burden on citizens to prove that they are legitimately entitled to full participation in the democratic process. If you can’t be troubled to identify yourself, you should expect multiple obstacles to sharing in the fruits of modern society.

Postscript: I just ran across this post, which makes some of the same points I’ve discussed above, but it says that there are roughly 20 million adult non-citizens in the U.S. today.

Fraud-Free Voting Fallacy

01 Thursday Dec 2016

Posted by pnoetx in Democracy

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

ACORN, DiscoverTheNetworks.org, Donald Trump, Ed Driscoll, Electoral College, Electoral Studies, Fake News, Glenn Reynolds, Hillary Clinton, Immigration policy, Instapundit, Pew Center on the States, Voter Fraud, Voter ID


acorn-voter-fraud

Democrats have long asserted that voter fraud is rare. Recently, we heard from them that questioning the results of an election would “undermine democracy”. In fact, voter fraud is routinely characterized by the left as “fake news“, and even worse, as a racist narrative! How convenient. But in the wake of the Donald Trump victory, we’ve been hearing about electronic voter fraud from the same crowd that’s been imagining Ruskiis under their beds for months (to steal a phrase from Glenn Reynolds). Fear not: voting machines are not connected to the internet!

This week, however, Donald Trump stirred the pot once again by tweeting that he would have won the popular vote if not for the “millions” of illegal votes for Hillary Clinton. Hilarity ensued, and not only on the left. All the pundits say that Trump has no data to support his claim. He probably never looked for it, and he probably doesn’t care. As Ed Driscoll notes at Instapundit, perhaps “stray voltage” is simply part of his plan.

Trump’s claim really does sound outrageous, but a review of the recent history of actual and potential election fraud shows that it might not be as radically far-fetched as we’ve been told. DiscovertheNetworks.org (DTN) provides a three-part compilation of voter fraud research and cases spanning the last 30 years. Pertinent detail on each case or finding is provided, and each item is sourced. The cases span the country and include fraudulent voter registration efforts, dead and ineligible voters (including pets) on the rolls, multiple registrations across jurisdictions, homeless voters casting multiple votes, fraudulent absentee ballots, vote buying, voter impersonation, and failure to provide absentee ballots to deployed military personnel. ACORN, by the way, is well-represented on the list.

Many of the cases on DTN’s list involve anywhere from a handful of fraudulent votes to several hundred. Of course, it’s likely that only a small percentage of fraudulent votes are ever detected. But there are cases on the list of fraudulent registrations numbering in the thousands, and counts of ineligible voters appearing on voter rolls numbering in the hundreds of thousands and even millions.

One of the studies cited by DTN was commissioned by The Pew Center on the States, published in 2012. It found that there were 24 million invalid or “significantly inaccurate” voter registrations in the U.S. And just before every election, said the report, election officials are inundated with a flood of new and often questionable registrations.

Another study cited by DTN appeared in the journal Electoral Studies in 2014. It said “… based upon extrapolations from the portion of the sample with a verified vote … 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in 2008 ….” The authors admit that there are reasons to think 6.4% is an under-estimate. That’s especially true given the focus on immigration policy in this year’s presidential campaign. But if that percentage was repeated in this year’s election, and given 24 million non-citizen residents in the U.S. (legal and illegal), then roughly 1.4 million non-citizen votes would be included to the 2016 popular vote total. The researchers acknowledge that this group tends to vote heavily for democrats. The overlap between these votes and those arising from the other kinds of voter fraud by Pew is certainly not complete, so the fraudulent vote total is likely to be well north of 1.4 million.

The electoral college was designed to discourage voter fraud in states dominated by a single party. Vote margins beyond a simple majority provide no incremental reward in the electoral college, the reasoning goes. That doesn’t mean election fraud doesn’t occur in those states or that it isn’t motivated in part by presidential politics. Moreover, state and local races can still be contested in so-called “one-party” states and may be subject to manipulative efforts. In such cases, presidential votes might well ride on the coattails of candidates for state and local offices.

The recent tide of republican success in congressional races and at the state level does not suggest that election fraud is benefitting democrats in more highly contested states. Perhaps it goes the other way or is roughly balanced between the parties in those states. But most people who believe Trump’s tweet would probably say that fraud must be concentrated in heavily “blue” states like California and New York. If so, it would be unbalanced fraud.

The magnitude of voter fraud in the presidential election is plausibly in the range of 1 – 2 million and it could be even higher based on the research and other information cited above. That total, however, is split between the parties. For the sake of argument, if 2 million fraudulent ballots are cast and republicans garner 30%, or 600,000 fraudulent votes, then the contribution to the democrat vote margin is just 800,000. Hillary Clinton’s popular vote margin was 2.1 million (less than the margin in California alone). Given that total, Trump’s claim is a real stretch, but his “guess” at the number of fraudulent votes is probably well within an order of magnitude. That might be surprising to some detractors.

What should be obvious is that voter fraud is a major problem in the U.S., and it undoubtedly swings some races at state and local levels. I have been lukewarm with respect to voter ID laws, but I am persuaded that they are a necessary step in the quest for electoral integrity. (Whether IDs must be government-issued is a separate matter.) The argument that these laws are discriminatory is true to the extent that we wish to prevent ineligible individuals from voting. That’s a good thing. The argument that it is racist is sheer stupidity: citizenship should bring privileges. That is not a position on immigration policy. Voter ID laws place a simple burden on citizens to prove that they are legitimately entitled to full participation in the democratic process. If you can’t be troubled to identify yourself, you should expect multiple obstacles to sharing in the fruits of modern society.

Postscript: I just ran across this post, which makes some of the same points I’ve discussed above, but it says that there are roughly 20 million adult non-citizens in the U.S. today.

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