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Grading Trump II, So Far

16 Monday Mar 2026

Posted by Nuetzel in Election, Politics

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Anthropic, central planning, CLARITY Act, Corporatism, DEI, DOGE, Donald Trump, entitlements, ESG, eVTOL, Fed Independence, GENIUS Act, Golden Share, Government Waste, Great Healthcare Plan, Industrial Policy, Jerome Powell, Jones Act, Kevin Warsh, Most Favored Nation Drug Pricing, Obamacare, One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Open AI, Pete Hegseth, Populism, ROAD To Housing Bill, Robert F. Kennedy Jr, SAVE America Act, Stargate, Tariff Dividend, TrumpRx.gov, Voter ID

I voted for Trump because I considered him to be far preferable to Kamala Harris across a range of issues. I still feel that way, but I’m appalled at a number of actions he’s taken and/or proposed in the 14 months since he took office. As a candidate, I gave Trump a “grade point average” of about 2.68, a solid C+. Here, I’ll grade him on most of the same categories, but I’ve made a few changes to the categories based on developments since his inauguration. My perspective here is generally domestic non-intervention and small government.

Yes, I realize this is tldr; I’m sure I elaborated more than necessary, but you can skip around and scroll to sections in which you might have greater interest. Here’s a list of topics:

  • Role of Government
  • Regulation
  • Border Policy
  • Antitrust
  • Foreign Policy
  • Trade
  • Taxes
  • Inflation
  • Federal Reserve Independence
  • Federal Spending and the Deficit
  • Entitlement Reform
  • Government Waste
  • Health and Health Care
  • Abortion
  • Housing
  • Energy
  • First Amendment Rights
  • Second Amendment Rights
  • DEI and Its Evil Financial Twin, ESG
  • Technology
  • Voting Rights
  • Education

Role of Government: It’s probably unfair to treat this as a separate category because it might double count specifics mentioned later, but Trump has demonstrated an unfortunate proclivity for wielding government power over private affairs when it suits him politically. On this point, “The Conspicuous Fist of Trump’s State Corporatism”, is a good read. Trump’s actions demonstrate the awful ways in which populism is often a close cousin to socialism. An example is Trump’s economic micro-management and abrogation of property rights in attacking share buybacks. Trump boasts of his efforts to strengthen the American economy by committing public resources to investments in private enterprises, and by “doing deals” with foreign governments to invest in the U.S. When it comes to limited government, candidate Trump’s C is now President Trump’s D.

Regulation: Despite the kinds of intrusions cited above, the Trump Administration has, at the same time, aggressively pursued deregulation of private activity. The goal is to achieve a 10-to-1 ratio of rule rollbacks to new regulatory rules. One can and should assess regulatory measures one-by-one, but there are plenty of rules that wouldn’t pass a reasonable cost-benefit test. On the whole the regulatory state has grown unwieldy and imposes significant costs on producers, and ultimately taxpayers and consumers, often with little compensatory benefit. I applaud the effort to untangle the regulatory state. My grade for Trump here remains an A.

Border Policy: Despite my preference for non-intervention, I support strong border enforcement along with expanded legal immigration.

Illegal entry has plummeted under Trump, a welcome development. Uncontrolled immigration entails a loss of sovereignty and is a poor fiscal proposition. Those with deeper criminal records, from either before or after entry, deserve no concessions. Strict vetting is also necessary to prevent incursions by potential terror threats.

While illegal entry is a crime, otherwise innocent illegals should be treated kindly. For example, rewards can be offered for voluntary deportation, an approach used extensively by the Trump Administration. There are difficult issues such as birthright citizenship, the constitutionality of which has been questioned on textual grounds, and the practicality of which can be shaky, even for children of parents who enter the U.S. legally. Either way, it seems clear that the promise of birthright citizenship should not serve as an incentive for illegal entry.

The Administration has certainly fumbled immigration enforcement in some instances, with cases of improperly detained individuals. Furthermore, very little has been done to advance the cause of increased legal immigration. On this topic I give Trump an overall B-.

Antitrust: This is a case of excessive government meddling with a big dose of favoritism thrown in. Early on, the Trump Administration chose to follow in the footsteps of Biden-era antitrust enforcement with a bias toward penalizing successful businesses on the pretext of “protecting” consumers.

Even worse, the Trump Administration has used the threat of antitrust as a cudgel in pursuit of a variety of objectives that are purely political. For example, in a recent executive order (EO), Trump threatened antitrust action against companies who invest in *too many* single-family homes, a counterproductive prohibition with hoped-for appeal to populist instincts. Then, under Trump, there have been missives from the FTC to tech companies about their failure to provide “balanced” news coverage, a prerogative protected by the First Amendment.

Trump has also interfered with Netflix’s now aborted acquisition of Warner Bros., in favor of a rival offer from Paramount. Trump also engineered the coercive extraction of a U.S. government “Golden Share” in approving the merger of U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel, which Trump claims gives him “total control”, in part by controlling the number of board seats. And he basically extorted a 15% cut for the government for approving a deal allowing Nvidea and AMD to sell the older H20 chip to China.

Trump’s approach to antitrust is very much entangled with the Administration’s uninhibited embrace of industrial policy and public control over private activity. He shares a fantasy common to interventionists that he can leverage the coercive power of government to create just the outcomes he would like.

The grade here is a D, which I think is generous.

Foreign Policy: I’ll try to keep this category separate from trade and tariff issues, though they are intertwined. Trump’s approach to foreign policy is nothing if not bold, and it’s been a mixed bag in terms of success. In the western hemisphere we have the so-called “Donroe Doctrine”, Trump’s effort to establish U.S. hemispheric leadership. So far: we gained a more effective partnership with Panama over the canal and diminished China’s control; decapitated the Maduro regime in Venezuela, asserting control over its oil shipments and undercutting the flow of narcotics through the country; brought the Cuban communist regime to near collapse by choking off its oil imports (but at the cost of greater human suffering in Cuba); partnered with Mexico in eliminating the head of a major drug cartel; and developed closer ties with several conservative regimes in Central and South America.

I’m troubled by the deadly force used against vessels said to be transporting drugs. We might have great intelligence on smuggling operations, but there must be less deadly ways to interdict.

For better or worse, Trump has trolled Canadian leadership in an effort to provoke dissent and gain influence there with respect to trade and security issues. His provocative stance on Greenland is primarily motivated by concerns over security in the Arctic.

Trump’s action against the repressive Iranian theocracy, its support of terror, and its nuclear ambitions has been a military success. Unfortunately, it has come at the cost of some American lives, at least a few civilian casualties in Iran, and a considerable economic cost. We can only hope for quick resolution and a transition to a more liberal regime for the people of Iran. However, Trump was patient to a fault with the mullahs, offering them an off-ramp during repeated rounds of negotiations. They refused to take it.

Of course, Trump is also pro-Israel and has rallied a coalition of nations who might contribute to a revitalized Gaza. I give Trump huge props for his support of Israel and his disgust with anti-Semitism in general.

Trump’s involvement in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia have been unsuccessful. It’s fair to wonder whether he’s cutting Putin way too much slack, as Putin has no intention of relenting. China remains a major threat to U.S. interests and our allies, but many of Trump’s foreign policy initiatives have served to undermine CCP interests.

Trump unique approach has alienated some of our traditional European allies, though he has had success in influencing policy abroad. In Venezuela, it’s worrisome that Trump acts as if he’s cultivating a relationship with Maduro’s replacements, who are probably no better than Maduro except for their eagerness to cowtow to Trump. Well, maybe, maybe not! Also troubling is the collateral damage suffered by the people of Cuba. There are signs of a willingness among Cuban leaders to negotiate with Trump, though hopes for a friendly successor regime might be foolish.

On the whole, I’ll give Trump a B on foreign policy. It’s bold, but he’s had some real successes.

Trade: I gave Trump an F on trade policy as a candidate. He’s more than justified that grade as president. He is a complete dolt when it comes to the benefits of foreign trade, the meaning of a trade deficit, the costs inflicted by tariffs, their complete inadequacy as a replacement for the income tax, and their counterproductive effect on foreign investment in the U.S. His “emergency” tariffs constituted a huge tax increase on the American people, but those were ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. His latest ploy is to impose punitive tariffs under the guise of a balance of payments emergency, but the balance of payments is zero! This too will be struck down in the courts.

Some might argue that Trump’s other foreign policy achievements would not have been possible without the threat of tariffs, but the fact is Trump imposed the tariffs anyway. Yup, it’s an F.

Taxes: In terms of budget effects, the increased tariff revenue (which might not last at present levels) is much more than offset by tax provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) passed into law last summer. It makes permanent many of the reductions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 that had been ready to expire. The standard deduction is increased and more limits are placed on itemization. The Act also creates targeted (and temporary) deductions for tips, overtime, auto loans, and seniors, which is inefficient because it treats various forms of income differently, leading to incentives for unproductive reallocations. Those changes also smack of political pandering.

The OBBBA makes permanent some tax incentives for business, such as immediate expensing of short-term asset purchases and domestic R&D investment. It also provides a temporary 100 percent deduction for certain structures and phases out tax credits for green energy production (bravo!).

To the extent that the tax package includes some pro-growth elements, I applaud it. Tax reductions generally are a good thing because they reduce distortions, but Trump has managed to introduce several distortionary elements just the same. I won’t dock Trump for deficit effects here because the deficit is fundamentally a spending problem, not a tax problem. I gave him a C+ on taxes as a candidate, but I’ll boost him to a B- for his first year.

Inflation: Trump doesn’t have real control over inflation as economists define it, but he’s managed to aggravate some price increases just the same. Unfortunately, he makes repeated claims that “prices have fallen” under his leadership, which of course is false. Egg prices perhaps, and oil prices (er… not this month). Of course, in general prices are up, including import prices. Inflation measures have been fairly steady over the past year, but remain stubbornly higher than the Federal Reserve’s target. I give Trump a grade on this topic only because he deserves a penalty for his false boasts. It’s a C, the same as candidate Trump.

Federal Reserve Independence: Trump has relentlessly badgered Jerome Powell and the Fed to somehow engineer lower interest rates. Of course, many key interest rates are market driven and outside the Fed’s direct control. Trump has gone so far as to bring lawfare to bear against Powell, accusing him of misleading Congress regarding cost overruns on the renovation of the Fed’s offices in DC. Of course, it’s not unusual for a president to jawbone the Fed, but Trump has been absurdly aggressive at a time when reducing the Fed’s rate targets would quite possibly backfire. At least Trump’s selection of the next Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, was more reasonable than another top candidate who would probably have been a mere punching bag. For this, I’ll lift his grade slightly, from an F to a D-.

Federal Spending and the Deficit: I discuss a few components of spending under other headings below. Beyond those points, Trump has taken every opportunity to find creative uses for taxpayer money. He has proposed a “tariff dividend” for all households funded by the revenue from import taxes. (Refunds of tariff revenue to “payers” are still in question.) At this point, the better alternative is to put extra revenue toward paying down the federal debt. The same goes for any revenue earned from the many “deals” Trump is counting on. Pay down the debt and earn an immediate, certain, and lasting return, rather than installing the government as part owner of otherwise private enterprises having uncertain returns.

Apart from that and the folly of establishing a sovereign wealth fund while the public debt is burgeoning, Trump has made no progress whatsoever on deficit reduction. Granted, he can’t count on strong legislative support despite slight majorities in both chambers of Congress.

The tax cuts in the OBBBA obviously don’t help the cause of deficit reduction. In fairness, rebuilding the military is a major priority. However, interests costs on the debt will keep rising as will discretionary non-defense outlays. At least the East-Wing Ballroom, the Arc de Trump (!), and the Kennedy Center renovation all appear to be privately funded.

Trump deserves a D here. Some of his priorities are terrible, and I can’t cut him any slack based on trends in discretionary spending.

Entitlement Reform: Trump has been silent on reforms to Social Security’s “Old Age and Survivors” programs and Medicare, except to promise no cuts in benefits under his watch. Kick the can! However, the administration has considered cuts in other entitlements, such as Social Security Disability Insurance, Medicaid and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance (SNAP). These programs have been riddled with fraud, so I applaud steps to clean them up. Nevertheless, any progress made here will still be dwarfed by the insolvency of the Retirement and Medicare programs, which Trump considers a third rail for potential reformers. I gave him an F as a candidate, but his anti-fraud efforts help him salvage a C-.

Government Waste: DOGE was short-lived as originally constituted, its execution was clumsy, and the blow-up in Trump’s relationship with Elon Musk was an embarrassment. However, DOGE was a force for stanching the flow of taxpayer dollars through politicized NGOs. The budget savings were relatively small, but the defunded programs were often egregious varieties of government waste. Subsequently, DOGE personnel had an outsized influence on downsizing the federal bureaucracy and targeting waste across various agencies. In addition, the efforts of one-time DOGE workers were put to good use in identifying entitlement fraud, which could and should result in budget savings. Trump gets a B+ on this one.

Health and Health Care: I’ll give Trump credit here for pursuing a more consumer-oriented approach to health care reform, though at least one of his initiatives is counterproductive.

His initial steps took the form of EOs reducing subsidies paid on ACA marketplace policies, ending remaining penalties for violating the ACA’s individual mandate, approving short-term coverages free of certain ACA restrictions, cutting Medicaid expansion funding, and granting more flexibility for states in defining “essential” healthcare benefits. All of these are basically good steps.

Trump issued an ill-conceived EO calling for “Most-Favored Nation” (MFN) prescription drug pricing, which should reduce Americans’ prescription costs but will dramatically undercut life-saving drug research. Hate the pharmaceutical companies all you want, but they must earn a reasonable profit to risk the massive development costs of new miracle drugs, of which they’ve brought many to market. Price controls always create more problems than they solve.

In early 2026 Trump introduced his “Great Healthcare Plan” (GHP). It would codify MFN drug pricing, fund cost-sharing reductions for ACA plans, encourage price transparency, and redirect payments to consumers and away from insurers to facilitate choice and competition. Also launched was the TrumpRx.gov platform featuring MFN pricing. Ironically, the goal here is to improve access to prescription drugs. Good luck!

Under Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Trump’s HHS Secretary, the “Make America Healthy Again” agenda has emphasized a healthy diet and exercise, including noteworthy changes in the famous food triangle hierarchy. I can’t argue with those. However, RFK Jr. has upended research under HHS, and those actions were rash in a number cases. He wants to address chronic diseases but I’m skeptical of some of his causal claims. I also have mixed reactions to his changed guidance on vaccines. There are reports that the White House has not been comfortable with all of RFK’s pronouncements and is eager to inject more oversight.

I have varied reactions to Trump’s efforts in the health care arena. MFN price capping is a good way to destroy the advantages Americans enjoy in terms of access to innovative drugs, even if they come at a steep cost. RFK Jr. is a wild card, to be fair. Otherwise, while the GHP should help to improve healthcare affordability, it neglects other critical reforms such as ending the disparate tax treatment of health care premiums and deregulating providers. Still, Trump’s grade improved here, from a D+ as a candidate to a B- thus far in his term.

Abortion: No change here. Trump has consistently supported the right to life. He gets an A.

Housing: Build Baby Build! But aside from harping on the Fed to lower interest rates, Trump hasn’t done much to encourage housing supply.

His EO banning institutional investors from owning “too many” single-family homes won’t help affordability because so few homes are owned by large investors. But to the extent that they are, the EO will increase rents and discourage new housing supply. This is another misguided foray into central economic planning.

While I think a 50-year mortgage should be legal, it’s something I believe potential homebuyers should avoid unless they want to risk stubbornly low equity in their homes stretching into retirement. Trump shouldn’t talk this up too much.

Trump has supported the “ROAD to Housing” bill, which has garnered bipartisan support. It would codify the restrictions on ownership of single-family housing by institutional investors and restrict construction of “rent-to-own” housing by such investors. One couldn’t invent a less effective way to encourage supply and promote “affordability”. But the bill would also subsidize demand, which will increase pressure on housing prices even as the bill aims to assist particular groups (e.g., tax credits for first-time homebuyers). Despite all those downsides, the bill actually includes a few steps to boost housing supply, such as making some federal lands available for development, regulatory reform, and tax incentives for builders.

Trump has also discussed changes to government sponsored enterprises (GSEs, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), which purchase new mortgages from lenders, including possible privatization. He might be licking his chops for the $300 billion the GSEs owe the federal government, which could be put toward various “deals” he might like to cut. If privatization were to end the explicit government guarantee for mortgage-backed securities issued by the GSEs, mortgage interest rates would rise and it could be quite disruptive for banks.

Update: On Friday, March 13, the President issued an EO entitled “Removing Regulatory Barriers To Affordable Home Construction“, which looks sensible at a glance.

Housing policy is another mixed bag for Trump, but I’ll give him a B on the strength of his deregulatory effort.

Energy: Drill baby drill! Despite the current disruption to oil shipments through the straight of Hormuz and the spike in oil prices, I deem Trump’s energy policies a success thus far. Largely through deregulation, Trump has opened up the spigots on domestic oil production. He has also realigned energy priorities, eliminating subsidies and mandates for intermittent renewable energy sources in favor of encouraging fossil fuels, hydroelectric, and especially a new emphasis on nuclear power. Some of these steps represent unabashed central planning, so I can’t give Trump an A on energy policy,. However, the preceding green-energy regime was central planning on steroids with the unintended consequence of instability in the power grid. I would greatly prefer a policy of complete neutrality with respect to energy sources, but at least Trump is not cowed by global warming hysteria.

And Trump is considering a temporary suspension of the Jones Act due to the energy crunch brought on by the war in Iran. That would be great except that the waiver should be permanent. The move would lower energy (and other) costs to U.S. consumers and minimize supply disruptions by allowing energy (and other goods) to flow more freely between U.S. ports.

His grade on energy policy is a B.

First Amendment Rights: Trump has not been the defender of free speech that I had hoped. On this, I gave him an A- as a candidate, but his Administration has been belligerent in attacking speech. He (and his FCC Chairman) threaten media outlets with license revocation, his Attorney General says “we will target you” for anything DOJ attorneys might define as hate speech, and Trump has called certain speech he dislikes “illegal”. I also have qualms about an EO issued last year by Trump targeting “campaigns of … radicalization”, which might, in practice, bring any sort of opposition speech under scrutiny. And there are other potentially troublesome provisions for protected speech. Trump’s pure intent might be to stop violent radicalism, which is fine in spirit but hard to bring off without mass surveillance and violations of rights. I therefore downgrade Trump to a C on free speech.

Second Amendment Rights: Trump has not been quite as consistent on gun rights as he was as a candidate. He took a number of actions to reduce burdens and restrictions on gun rights, but in other cases he let restrictions stand, including arrests for gun possession in Washington DC by federal agents and a possible proposal to restrict the gun rights of transgendered individuals. All-in-all, I’ll reduce Trump’s A on gun rights to a B+.

DEI and Its Evil Financial Twin, ESG: There is no question that Trump has done much to cut through the stranglehold that DEI doctrine had imposed on social and economic life. He issued EOs to end DEI practices in the federal government. He also threatened major universities with funding freezes and anti-discrimation actions, an approach that has met with some success. Trump’s words and actions on DEI have reverberated through the private sector as well. He has encouraged individuals who believe they’ve suffered discrimination based on DEI to file lawsuits. The thrust of the Administration’s agenda on DEI and regulatory changes has served to undermine the use of ESG measures. These are intended to draw investors to companies purporting to foster environmental and social goals, which can be at odds with creating value for shareholders. Trump has earned his A in this category.

Technology: As in other policy domains, the record here is marred by misguided industrial policies. That includes the recent snafu over the Department of Defense’s allegation of “supply chain risk” posed by Anthropic. DoD wants carte blanche access to all aspects of any AI model it adopts, including uses in autonomous weapons systems and mass public surveillance. Anthropic said it would not accept that without guardrails, so an apparently infuriated Pete Hegseth moved to designate the company a supply chain risk, an outright punishment that would obviously damage Anthropic’s economic prospects. Yet almost immediately, DoD agreed to an arrangement with OpenAI with guardrails similar to those desired by Anthropic. Now, Trump, who seems to have Hegseth’s back, is readying an EO on the topic… so we shall see. But it’s a mess. Anthropic has filed suit.

And yet Trump has generally been supportive of AI development, signing an order to prevent states from imposing a patchwork of varying, complex regulations. The White House has issued an ”AI Action Plan” to encourage AI exports, minimizing federal regulatory burdens, and “upholding free speech” on “unbiased” frontier models. Let’s hope “unbiased” has a truly neutral definition in this case. Trump has signed a series of EOs related to AI research and deployment, which are linked here.

Post-inauguration, Trump dove right into another socialist joint venture known as Stargate to build data center infrastructure. The rationale for the government’s direct involvement is national security. Of course, that’s the Administration’s rough and ready excuse for almost any kind of intervention.

Trump has helped promote the crypto industry, supporting legislation (the CLARITY Act and the GENIUS Act) enabling more widespread use of stablecoins. He even supports the payment of returns on stablecoins, a development that is unpopular with banks. Trump has also acted to promote cybersecurity and harden infrastructure against malicious actors. More recently, he initiated a program to test eVTOL technologies (electronic vertical takeoff and landing), which are expected to revolutionize local and regional transportation in coming years.

The best I can give Trump on technology is a B-, given his penchant for government control. The Anthropic controversy is a real black eye.

Voting Rights: The Trump-backed SAVE America Act would require an ID proving citizenship to vote in federal elections. It’s stalled in the Senate, seven votes short of the 60 needed to send it to Trump’s desk. GOP senators are unwilling to force a talking filibuster, let alone to use the so-called “nuclear option” to force a simple-majority vote. There is still a possibility of including a voter ID requirement in a budget reconciliation bill if anyone can convince the Senate Parliamentarian that it would have budget impacts. For his part, Trump says he’ll refuse to sign any other legislation until the SAVE Act crosses his desk, though he’s also threatened to issue an EO mandating voter ID should the Senate fail to pass the bill. The constitutionality of such an order would be challenged, of course, but for his determination on the issue, I’ll give him an A+.

Education: This is a quick addition to the list. After inserting the photo of Trump at the top, I realized that I’d completely forgotten to add education as a performance category. Trump’s effort to dismantle the wasteful and unproductive Department of Education is to be applauded. He’s also been an unwavering supporter of school choice. I’ll give him an A here.

I have to stop! That’s 22 categories and a “grade point average” of 2.55 if the categories are equally weighted. It’s a little worse than Trump’s GPA as a candidate (2.67). He could have improved his grades dramatically without his bent for economic intervention, but I’d have to vote for him again given the alternative.

Voting Rights Doublespeak

18 Tuesday Jan 2022

Posted by Nuetzel in Voter Fraud, Voting Rights

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Absentee Voting, Antifa, Armed Resistance, Ballot Harvesting, Ballot Security, BLM, Capitol Riot, Domestic Terror, Donald Trump, Early Voting, FBI, filibuster, Freedom To Vote Act, George Wallace, Glenn Reynolds, Insurrection, Joe Biden, Joseph M. Hanneman, LARP, Legal Insurrection, Mail-In Voting, Marco Rubio, NASA, Oathkeepers, Patrick Eddington, PATRIOT Act, Proud Boys, Ray Epps, Robert Byrd, Russian Collusion, Sedition, Transfer of Power, Voter ID, Voter Suppression, Voting Rights Act

The so-called insurrection that took place on January 6, 2021 (J6) has obsessed Democrats seeking to ram through a “voting rights” bill that they hope will advantage them in future elections. Oh, and to legitimize proposed new powers for agencies in the fight against “domestic terror”, and to somehow disqualify Donald Trump from holding the presidency again. We can thank a couple of moderate Democrats for shutting down the election bill, at least for the time being, by refusing to eliminate the filibuster.

The Real Threat to Voting Rights

If your real aim is to undermine ballot security and make it easier to cheat, you’d have to work hard to beat the election bill pushed by the Biden Administration: the Freedom To Vote Act (FVA). In their fashion, however, the Left prefers to stake-out phony rhetorical high-ground, replete with spurious charges against the opposition alleging racism and subversive, anti-democratic intent. Joe Biden demonstrated this vividly during his ill-advised speech in Georgia last week.

Here is a fairly thorough summary of the FVA, including an earlier version passed by the House last March. The overarching thrust of the bill is to substitute federal for state authority over the election process. States would not be permitted to demand that voters produce photo IDs. The bill would also require automatic voter registration at the department of motor vehicles and other government agencies, on-line registration, same-day registration, more days of early voting, excuse-free, notary-free, and witness-free absentee ballots, and extended counting of late-arriving ballots.

Democrats in the House of Representatives have now used a NASA funding bill as a shell for all these federally-prescribed protocols. Reportedly, this bill would legalize ballot harvesting nationwide, but that does not appear to be the case. Nevertheless, it includes all of the other provisions cited above, and many others.

While Congress certainly has the power to regulate elections, states were given the primary authority for conducting elections under the Constitution:

“The Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof; but the Congress may at any time by Law make or alter such Regulations, except as to the Places of chusing Senators.”

The Voting Rights Act of 1965 helped secure minority voting rights that plainly exist under the Constitution, and it prescribed federal review of certain changes in state voting procedures (some aspects of which were struck down by the Supreme Court). However, never before has such sweeping federal authority been proposed as to the range of mechanics involved in casting and counting ballots. Ballot security would be compromised by several provisions of the legislation.

While voter registration should be relatively painless, it should not be so painless that non-citizens find it easy to register. That is likely to be the case under automatic voter registration. Surely many non-citizens have much to recommend them, but they have not yet demonstrated their commitment to the nation through earned citizenship. The right to vote is a benefit of citizenship; it serves as an inducement to learn about our system of government through the naturalization process. These individuals might not be interested in going to the trouble, however, or they might be loyal to a foreign power. Do we really want such individuals to have a vote? And to the extent that their interest is focused on public benefits, they surely do not have an equal claim to natural-born but similarly-situated Americans.

Voter ID is a safeguard against voter fraud, and a huge majority of Americans support it, including majorities of minorities. The very idea that a photo ID requirement would “suppress” the legitimate votes of minorities is based on the presumption that those voters might have difficulty obtaining identification such as a drivers license or other government ID. Oh really? We can safely file that contention under “the bigotry of low expectations”.

Extensive use of absentee ballots was intended to facilitate voting during pandemic restrictions that were expected to reduce the safety and efficiency of polling places. However, most developed countries ban “mail-in voting”, regarding it as a prescription for voter fraud. That threat seems all too real given the lax standards proposed in the FVA.

The Threat to Political Opposition

The House investigative committee looking into the January 6th melee may recommend new intelligence powers for the federal government. Those powers aren’t needed to investigate the Capitol riot: the FBI has been in possession of teams of video evidence, and it has broad powers under the PATRIOT Act and other measures. Here’s Patrick Eddington from the link above:

“… the FBI already has unbelievably sweeping authority to surveil individual Americans or domestic groups without ever having to go before a judge to get a warrant.

Under an investigative category known as an assessment, FBI agents can search commercial and government databases (including databases containing classified information), run confidential informants, and conduct physical surveillance, all without a court order.”

The simple truth is that certain congressional Democrats and the Biden Administration are attempting to use the Capitol riot as an excuse to turn federal law enforcement against their political enemies. The claim by Biden, the guy who bragged of being mentored by Klansman Robert Byrd, and the same man who praised George Wallace on several occasions, is that his opponents are “domestic terrorists” and/or “white supremacists”. We’ve seen quite enough of this chicanery already. Having suffered through a lengthy “Russian collision” charade, a willingness to completely ignore massive riots and property destruction by BLM and Antifa activists in 2020, and an orchestrated attempt to treat concerned parents of schoolchildren as “domestic terrorists”, we’re expected to believe that these stooges need more power?

The J6 Fiasco

And that brings us back to the Capitol riot. It was, as Glenn Reynolds has said, a clownshow and a mess. But speaking of insurrection, let’s hope the FBI is keeping its eye on violent leftists as well, who perpetrated some unquestionably treasonous escapades in the not very distant past. From Legal Insurrection:

“…leftist rioters … attempted to stop the peaceful transition of power during President Trump’s inauguration. … did anti-Trump leftists riot, attack and injure police, set cars and buildings on fire… …

… the multi-day May, 2020 assault on the White House that left at least 60 Secret Service agents wounded and forced President Trump to be whisked away to a bunker for his personal safety.”

Even more dangerous leftist attacks on the Capitol building have been perpetrated, such as bombings by the Weather Underground in 1971 and the Armed Resistance in 1983.

Many people were hurt in the J6 riot through no real fault of their own, including Ashli Babbitt, who was shot and killed by a Capitol police officer shortly after she attempted to stop attackers from smashing windows. Nevertheless, those who breached the Capitol building were mostly a bunch of hapless goofballs encouraged to run amuck by certain instigators. Among those were the Oathkeepers, a gang who marched around in stack formation wearing gear that looked vaguely militaristic. They brought no weapons to the Capitol (though they had some stashed in the VA suburbs). Apparently, one of them did assist a crowd in barging through a door to the Capitol. Their activities on J6 have been described by one pundit as LARP — live action role playing. Nevertheless, there was much talk among them of interfering with the transfer of power to “the usurper”, as they called Joe Biden. And now, eleven of them have been charged with insurrection and sedition. Members of the Proud Boys were also at the Capitol, some of whom fought with police.

But what really happened to make things go off the rails on January 6th? This article by Joseph M. Hanneman offers an excellent discussion of the events of that afternoon, and the subsequent investigation. He notes the mysterious absence of a number of individuals involved in the breach of the Capitol and grounds from the FBI’s “Seeking Information” list of over 1,500 photos. That includes one Ray Epps, whose incitement was otherwise fairly well-documented. Some suspect certain parties with no interest in seeing Donald Trump remain in office actually encouraged the rioters, up to and including the FBI. Would that surprise anyone after the Whitmer kidnapping operation or the Russian collusion hoax?

The vast majority of the crowd on J6 came to the Capitol grounds to conduct a peaceful protest in the vain hope for congressional action to put a hold on the counting of electors pending state election audits, investigations, and court challenges. Many of those arrested were denied due process, and were held for months with no charges filed.

As for the “threat to the nation” posed by the crowd on J6, I found this Marco Rubio quote to be apropos:

“I don’t care how many candlelight vigils and musical performances you have from the cast of Hamilton, you’re not going to convince most normal and sane people that our government last year was almost overthrown by a guy wearing a Viking hat and speedos.”

Conclusion

Democrats still hope to vote to eliminate the Senate filibuster and then pass the FVA. That is a pipe dream at this point, but they would come to regret eliminating the filibuster in due course. They have used it themselves to defeat legislation hundreds of times in the recent past. The filibuster has its shortcomings, particularly its inability to restrain executive power. Nevertheless, it has never been more critical as protection against a tyrannical (and slim) majority in Congress.

The Freedom To Vote Act is doomed to failure. Still, no one should forget the mendacious rhetoric employed by Joe Biden and the leftist Democrat leadership in Congress on the issue of election integrity. Nor should anyone forget their dishonorable, anti-democratic intent to devalue legitimate voting rights.

Ballot “Access” Or Fraud, Vote “Suppression” Or Security

15 Monday Mar 2021

Posted by Nuetzel in Election Fraud, Voting Rights

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Absentee Ballots, Article I, Ballot Harvesting, Brennan Center for Justice, Chain of Custody, Conrad Black, Covid-19, Election Security, Elections Clause, For the People Act, H.R. 1, Hans von Spakovsky, Jim Crow Laws, Mail-In Voting, Nullification, Omnibus Election Transformation bill, Signature Verification, Steve Baldwin, Supreme Court, Tenth Amendment, Vaccine Passports, Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression, Voter ID, Voting Rights

Do a search of “suppression” on Twitter and you’ll be treated to an uninterrupted stream of lefty hallucinations and shrieks about GOP efforts to bring back Jim Crow, subvert democracy, and deny people their right to vote. Every state-level initiative to shore up election integrity is labeled suppression. Well, what we should suppress is the country’s headlong plunge into ballot debasement and jobbery. Election fraud is not new, as the Supreme Court noted in 2008. Ballot harvesting is not new. And we knew well ahead of the 2020 presidential election that the usual safeguards against election fraud were being severely compromised. These changes leveraged vulnerabilities that were of concern to the Left in the not too distant past. Now, any mention provokes indignance!

You Gotta Get Up To Participate

Voting is usually a hassle, but the right to vote does not mean voting must be made effortless; it does not relieve the right-holder of obligations to exert what effort might be necessary, including minor inconveniences to verify that their vote is legitimate. COVID-19 gave momentum to those seeking to eliminate certain obligations associated with voting. After all, exposure to a deadly virus at a polling place would have represented more than a minor inconvenience. In response, 28 state governments instituted changes to expand mail-in voting in 2020 in addition to compromises such as allowing late ballots to count, and the changes were often made without legislative authority.

Predictably, these changes enabled widespread fraud, Even now, after many lawsuits over 2020 election fraud were dismissed on procedural grounds, there remain a large number of election fraud cases in the courts. A substantial share of the voting public believes that fraud occurred on a massive scale. The perceived illegitimacy of the 2020 election represents a real threat to the stability of our Republic.

For the People?

It’s unfortunate that relieving the minor inconveniences imposed on voters creates major opportunities for fraud, but it appears to be in the interest of some factions to loosen those screws. Thus, we have a piece of federal legislation called the “For the People Act”, or H.R. 1 (the omnibus election transformation bill), which has passed the House on a strictly partisan vote and is now in the Senate. The bill would completely usurp the primary (though not exclusive) power of states to regulate elections under the Elections Clause of Article I of the Constitution. The breadth and reach of H.R. 1 would be deemed unconstitutional under any sane interpretation. Here is Hans von Spakovsky:

“H.R. 1 would mandate same-day and automatic voter registration, and encourage vote trafficking of absentee ballots. It would eviscerate state voter ID laws and limit the ability of states to verify the accuracy of their voter registration lists.”

And there is much more in the bill that would undermine the integrity of elections, including registration of the many disenfranchised 16- and 17-year-olds who have long been denied votes. A somewhat more detailed summary of H.R. 1 is provided by Conrad Black. It would:

“…compel states to accept mailed-in votes for 15 days prior to and 10 days after Election Day; set up automatic and online voter registration; prohibit review of the eligibility of voters; compel acceptance of ballots cast in the wrong precincts; bar the removal of the ineligible voters from the rolls; permit ballot harvesting; ban any voter identification laws; consign to unelected officials the redrawing of congressional districts; infringe upon free speech by the imposition of ‘onerous legal and administrative burdens on candidates, civic groups, unions, and non-profit organizations’; and establish a disturbingly named ‘Commission to Protect Democratic Institutions’ in order to end-run the courts.”

IDs Required When It Suits Them

We are told that the disenfranchised can’t be expected to produce identification. Is that so? But identification is required in most jurisdictions in order to receive a COVID vaccination, and there are discussions of how we’ll need to produce cards or “vaccine passports” to participate in a wide variety of activities. But an ID for voting is “suppression”?

Lacking identification, how are individuals expected to become “enfranchised” as a functioning members of society? Yes, if they are citizens then they have a right to vote. But one person, one vote requires some means of verified identity. If they know so much as to vote their pocketbooks, yet will not fulfill a simple obligation to produce identification in order to exercise that right, should they be accommodated?

Of course, there are individuals who need a “helping hand” in order to obtain proper identification, but short of inserting subcutaneous microchips, those individuals must be entrusted to keep it in their possession. That certainly doesn’t provide an excuse to cast aside rules intended to safeguard election integrity.

Is it unfair to expect everyone to vote on Election Day? There must be exceptions for those away from home or unable to appear at a polling place for health reasons. Absentee ballots have long been a feature of our voting system, but they must be mailed on time to prevent the gaming we witnessed in 2020. Having the resources to process all voters in one day might be challenging, so perhaps it’s not unreasonable to allow in-person voting over several days. I would also support a holiday for national elections.

Federalism Vs. Centralized Power

Again, it’s no secret that loosely controlled mail-in ballots are ripe for fraud. A drastic expansion of vote-by-mail facilitates efforts to harvest ballots and even manufacture votes. In 2020, deadlines for ballot delivery were extended indiscriminately. Signature verification was sidestepped. Ballots were shredded. Documented chains of custody were often lacking. Despite all that, even now there are many bills in state legislatures that would expand “voter access” in various ways. These are usually steps that would expose the public to more fraudulent elections and devaluation of legitimate votes.

But there is pushback: as of late February, there were 165 bills in 33 states designed to tighten election security, according to the Brennan Center for Justice:

“These proposals primarily seek to: (1) limit mail voting access; (2) impose stricter voter ID requirements; (3) slash voter registration opportunities; and (4) enable more aggressive voter roll purges. These bills are an unmistakable response to the unfounded and dangerous lies about fraud that followed the 2020 election.”

Conservative states can also resist federal efforts to control elections via nullification: arguably unconstitutional attempts by the federal government to regulate elections should not be recognized and enforced by states. Steve Baldwin asserts that the Tenth Amendment gives states the power to do so:

“The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.”

There is, however, some ambiguity in Article I regarding the federal government‘s power to regulate elections. Despite the “secondary” nature of that federal power, it has certainly been invoked over the last 150 years, primarily in establishing voting rights previously denied on the basis of race and gender. H.R. 1 does not represent an unambiguous defense of voting rights of that kind, however. Instead, by facilitating fraud, it represents wholesale debasement of voting rights.

Let’s hope traditionally conservative states are aggressive in pressing their primary power to regulate elections on multiple fronts: legislative, nullification of federal overreach, as well as court challenges. And let’s hope H.R. 1 goes down to defeat in the Senate, but it will be tight.

Fraud-Free Voting Fallacy

26 Thursday Jan 2017

Posted by Nuetzel in Democracy, Voter Fraud

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

ACORN, DiscoverTheNetworks.org, Donald Trump, Ed Driscoll, Electoral College, Electoral Studies, Fake News, Glenn Reynolds, Hillary Clinton, Immigration policy, Instapundit, Pew Center on the States, Voter Fraud, Voter ID


acorn-voter-fraud

I posted the following on December 1, 2016. It seems timely today. The bottom line: voter fraud is very unlikely to have swung the popular vote in favor of Hillary Clinton, but it is all too common.

Democrats have long asserted that voter fraud is rare. Recently, we heard from them that questioning the results of an election would “undermine democracy”. In fact, voter fraud is routinely characterized by the left as “fake news“, and even worse, as a racist narrative! How convenient. But in the wake of the Donald Trump victory, we’ve been hearing about electronic voter fraud from the same crowd that’s been imagining Ruskiis under their beds for months (to steal a phrase from Glenn Reynolds). Fear not: voting machines are not connected to the internet!

This week, however, Donald Trump stirred the pot once again by tweeting that he would have won the popular vote if not for the “millions” of illegal votes for Hillary Clinton. Hilarity ensued, and not only on the left. All the pundits say that Trump has no data to support his claim. He probably never looked for it, and he probably doesn’t care. As Ed Driscoll notes at Instapundit, perhaps “stray voltage” is simply part of his plan.

Trump’s claim really does sound outrageous, but a review of the recent history of actual and potential election fraud shows that it might not be as radically far-fetched as we’ve been told. DiscovertheNetworks.org (DTN) provides a three-part compilation of voter fraud research and cases spanning the last 30 years. Pertinent detail on each case or finding is provided, and each item is sourced. The cases span the country and include fraudulent voter registration efforts, dead and ineligible voters (including pets) on the rolls, multiple registrations across jurisdictions, homeless voters casting multiple votes, fraudulent absentee ballots, vote buying, voter impersonation, and failure to provide absentee ballots to deployed military personnel. ACORN, by the way, is well-represented on the list.

Many of the cases on DTN’s list involve anywhere from a handful of fraudulent votes to several hundred. Of course, it’s likely that only a small percentage of fraudulent votes are ever detected. But there are cases on the list of fraudulent registrations numbering in the thousands, and counts of ineligible voters appearing on voter rolls numbering in the hundreds of thousands and even millions.

One of the studies cited by DTN was commissioned by The Pew Center on the States, published in 2012. It found that there were 24 million invalid or “significantly inaccurate” voter registrations in the U.S. And just before every election, said the report, election officials are inundated with a flood of new and often questionable registrations.

Another study cited by DTN appeared in the journal Electoral Studies in 2014. It said “… based upon extrapolations from the portion of the sample with a verified vote … 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in 2008 ….” The authors admit that there are reasons to think 6.4% is an under-estimate. That’s especially true given the focus on immigration policy in this year’s presidential campaign. But if that percentage was repeated in this year’s election, and given 24 million non-citizen residents in the U.S. (legal and illegal), then roughly 1.4 million non-citizen votes would be included to the 2016 popular vote total. The researchers acknowledge that this group tends to vote heavily for democrats. The overlap between these votes and those arising from the other kinds of voter fraud by Pew is certainly not complete, so the fraudulent vote total is likely to be well north of 1.4 million.

The electoral college was designed to discourage voter fraud in states dominated by a single party. Vote margins beyond a simple majority provide no incremental reward in the electoral college, the reasoning goes. That doesn’t mean election fraud doesn’t occur in those states or that it isn’t motivated in part by presidential politics. Moreover, state and local races can still be contested in so-called “one-party” states and may be subject to manipulative efforts. In such cases, presidential votes might well ride on the coattails of candidates for state and local offices.

The recent tide of republican success in congressional races and at the state level does not suggest that election fraud is benefitting democrats in more highly contested states. Perhaps it goes the other way or is roughly balanced between the parties in those states. But most people who believe Trump’s tweet would probably say that fraud must be concentrated in heavily “blue” states like California and New York. If so, it would be unbalanced fraud.

The magnitude of voter fraud in the presidential election is plausibly in the range of 1 – 2 million and it could be even higher based on the research and other information cited above. That total, however, is split between the parties. For the sake of argument, if 2 million fraudulent ballots are cast and republicans garner 30%, or 600,000 fraudulent votes, then the contribution to the democrat vote margin is just 800,000 (1,400,000 – 600,000). Hillary Clinton’s popular vote margin was 2.9 million (less than the margin in California alone). Given that total, Trump’s claim is a real stretch, but his “guess” at the number of fraudulent votes is probably well within an order of magnitude. That might be surprising to some detractors.

What should be obvious is that voter fraud is a major problem in the U.S., and it undoubtedly swings some races at state and local levels. I have been lukewarm with respect to voter ID laws, but I am persuaded that they are a necessary step in the quest for electoral integrity. (Whether IDs must be government-issued is a separate matter.) The argument that these laws are discriminatory is true to the extent that we wish to prevent ineligible individuals from voting. That’s a good thing. The argument that it is racist is sheer stupidity: citizenship should bring privileges. That is not a position on immigration policy. Voter ID laws place a simple burden on citizens to prove that they are legitimately entitled to full participation in the democratic process. If you can’t be troubled to identify yourself, you should expect multiple obstacles to sharing in the fruits of modern society.

Postscript: I just ran across this post, which makes some of the same points I’ve discussed above, but it says that there are roughly 20 million adult non-citizens in the U.S. today.

Fraud-Free Voting Fallacy

01 Thursday Dec 2016

Posted by Nuetzel in Democracy

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

ACORN, DiscoverTheNetworks.org, Donald Trump, Ed Driscoll, Electoral College, Electoral Studies, Fake News, Glenn Reynolds, Hillary Clinton, Immigration policy, Instapundit, Pew Center on the States, Voter Fraud, Voter ID


acorn-voter-fraud

Democrats have long asserted that voter fraud is rare. Recently, we heard from them that questioning the results of an election would “undermine democracy”. In fact, voter fraud is routinely characterized by the left as “fake news“, and even worse, as a racist narrative! How convenient. But in the wake of the Donald Trump victory, we’ve been hearing about electronic voter fraud from the same crowd that’s been imagining Ruskiis under their beds for months (to steal a phrase from Glenn Reynolds). Fear not: voting machines are not connected to the internet!

This week, however, Donald Trump stirred the pot once again by tweeting that he would have won the popular vote if not for the “millions” of illegal votes for Hillary Clinton. Hilarity ensued, and not only on the left. All the pundits say that Trump has no data to support his claim. He probably never looked for it, and he probably doesn’t care. As Ed Driscoll notes at Instapundit, perhaps “stray voltage” is simply part of his plan.

Trump’s claim really does sound outrageous, but a review of the recent history of actual and potential election fraud shows that it might not be as radically far-fetched as we’ve been told. DiscovertheNetworks.org (DTN) provides a three-part compilation of voter fraud research and cases spanning the last 30 years. Pertinent detail on each case or finding is provided, and each item is sourced. The cases span the country and include fraudulent voter registration efforts, dead and ineligible voters (including pets) on the rolls, multiple registrations across jurisdictions, homeless voters casting multiple votes, fraudulent absentee ballots, vote buying, voter impersonation, and failure to provide absentee ballots to deployed military personnel. ACORN, by the way, is well-represented on the list.

Many of the cases on DTN’s list involve anywhere from a handful of fraudulent votes to several hundred. Of course, it’s likely that only a small percentage of fraudulent votes are ever detected. But there are cases on the list of fraudulent registrations numbering in the thousands, and counts of ineligible voters appearing on voter rolls numbering in the hundreds of thousands and even millions.

One of the studies cited by DTN was commissioned by The Pew Center on the States, published in 2012. It found that there were 24 million invalid or “significantly inaccurate” voter registrations in the U.S. And just before every election, said the report, election officials are inundated with a flood of new and often questionable registrations.

Another study cited by DTN appeared in the journal Electoral Studies in 2014. It said “… based upon extrapolations from the portion of the sample with a verified vote … 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in 2008 ….” The authors admit that there are reasons to think 6.4% is an under-estimate. That’s especially true given the focus on immigration policy in this year’s presidential campaign. But if that percentage was repeated in this year’s election, and given 24 million non-citizen residents in the U.S. (legal and illegal), then roughly 1.4 million non-citizen votes would be included to the 2016 popular vote total. The researchers acknowledge that this group tends to vote heavily for democrats. The overlap between these votes and those arising from the other kinds of voter fraud by Pew is certainly not complete, so the fraudulent vote total is likely to be well north of 1.4 million.

The electoral college was designed to discourage voter fraud in states dominated by a single party. Vote margins beyond a simple majority provide no incremental reward in the electoral college, the reasoning goes. That doesn’t mean election fraud doesn’t occur in those states or that it isn’t motivated in part by presidential politics. Moreover, state and local races can still be contested in so-called “one-party” states and may be subject to manipulative efforts. In such cases, presidential votes might well ride on the coattails of candidates for state and local offices.

The recent tide of republican success in congressional races and at the state level does not suggest that election fraud is benefitting democrats in more highly contested states. Perhaps it goes the other way or is roughly balanced between the parties in those states. But most people who believe Trump’s tweet would probably say that fraud must be concentrated in heavily “blue” states like California and New York. If so, it would be unbalanced fraud.

The magnitude of voter fraud in the presidential election is plausibly in the range of 1 – 2 million and it could be even higher based on the research and other information cited above. That total, however, is split between the parties. For the sake of argument, if 2 million fraudulent ballots are cast and republicans garner 30%, or 600,000 fraudulent votes, then the contribution to the democrat vote margin is just 800,000. Hillary Clinton’s popular vote margin was 2.1 million (less than the margin in California alone). Given that total, Trump’s claim is a real stretch, but his “guess” at the number of fraudulent votes is probably well within an order of magnitude. That might be surprising to some detractors.

What should be obvious is that voter fraud is a major problem in the U.S., and it undoubtedly swings some races at state and local levels. I have been lukewarm with respect to voter ID laws, but I am persuaded that they are a necessary step in the quest for electoral integrity. (Whether IDs must be government-issued is a separate matter.) The argument that these laws are discriminatory is true to the extent that we wish to prevent ineligible individuals from voting. That’s a good thing. The argument that it is racist is sheer stupidity: citizenship should bring privileges. That is not a position on immigration policy. Voter ID laws place a simple burden on citizens to prove that they are legitimately entitled to full participation in the democratic process. If you can’t be troubled to identify yourself, you should expect multiple obstacles to sharing in the fruits of modern society.

Postscript: I just ran across this post, which makes some of the same points I’ve discussed above, but it says that there are roughly 20 million adult non-citizens in the U.S. today.

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