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Conscious Design, the Collective Mind and Social Decline

20 Wednesday May 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Big Government, Human Welfare, Spontaneous Order

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Aggregate demand, Aggregation problem, Conscious Design, David Kreps, F.A. Hayek, Interventionism, Library of Economics and Liberty, Norman Barry, Spontaneous Social Order, The Counter-Revolution of Science

All those in favor

The great gains in human welfare over the past few hundred years are not the result of some conscious design by a central authority. They are due instead to the emergence of conditions under which a “spontaneous social order” could bear fruit. Yet most people toil under the illusion that the progress of humanity and civilization are impossible without the imposition of some conscious design and intervention by human planners. In “The Counter-Revolution of Science“, F.A. Hayek noted that conscious direction was unnecessary to the development of such fundamental institutions as language, markets, money, the legal system and morals:

“We flatter ourselves undeservedly if we represent human civilization as entirely the product of conscious reason or as the product of human design, or when we assume that it is necessarily in our power deliberately to re-create or to maintain what we have built without knowing what we were doing.“

A liberal, spontaneous social order arose against a backdrop of secure rights that encouraged voluntary exchange. Individuals, free to act on their preferences, capabilities and personal resources forged their own trade relationships and contractual arrangements. In this sort of environment, the prices established by free exchange not only direct goods and resources in the present, but also direct their availability over time by balancing the time preferences of savers and investors. Again, it was this set of unplanned but voluntary private arrangements that brought such dramatic material progress to humanity. The chief contributions of central authority were the provision of a reasonably stable legal environment and, ironically, the constitutional framework in the U.S. that imposed limits on government power.

On the other hand, there is a long history of attempts to impose “conscious” designs by edict. They have met with consistent failure, and for good reason: human authorities cannot possess the dispersed knowledge needed to balance the diverse needs and preferences of millions of economic agents with the abilities of others to produce and provide for those demands. Nor would human authorities have the correct incentives to properly direct resources to their most valued uses, even if they possessed the requisite knowledge. In fact, the imposition of a “collective” plan implies a degree of coercion. The plan, no matter how well meaning, will necessarily conflict with the objectives of some individuals. Efforts to work around the plan will lead to additional coercive steps to bring all parties into compliance.

Still, there seems to be a deeply ingrained belief that advances can only be a product of conscious design and central direction. The idea dovetails with the tendency to view policies and objectives as things that must be achieved by “society” as a collective. But the details of deliberate social policies must be promulgated by relatively few policymakers and then executed by technocrats, even if the policies themselves are the product of representative democracy.

The elites who administer central plans must rely on aggregate measures of economic activity and broad categories or class groupings, which grossly over-simplify and misrepresent the complexities of human activity. This aggregation problem afflicts a wide variety of measurements and attempts to analyze behavior. Gary Galles discusses various aggregation problems in “How Economic Aggregation Hides The Problems of Interventionism“.

By analyzing things at aggregate levels, we may deceive ourselves by thinking that the aggregates can represent meaningful outcomes, or even worse, policy levers. The aggregates become constructs to which theories of “behavior” are applied, often rationalized by so-called “micro-foundations” of “representative agent behavior”. This effectively elides the fundamental reasons for engaging in voluntary market exchanges in the first place: differences in preferences, abilities, knowledge, and endowments of resources create opportunities for gain through trade. David Kreps is quoted at a link above on a prominent example of this phenomenon, the weak foundations of “aggregate demand”:

“… total demand will shift about as a function of how individual incomes are distributed even holding total (societal) income fixed. So it makes no sense to speak of aggregate demand as a function of price and societal income ….“

In short, the theoretical relationships between aggregates do not describe real economic behavior. Hayek noted that relying on aggregates fosters the all-too common but mistaken view among policymakers, pundits and the public that the economy can be shaped and managed much as an engineer designs a machine, or as a manager runs his factory. That is an incorrect but insidious viewpoint. Hayek explains that engineers or factory managers are able to perform their functions with relative precision because they are able to take so much for granted: prices or the availability of certain materials and resource flows, and reliable, technical relationships between inputs and outputs. Again, the economy and society encompass too many complex relationships and details that are unknowable to any central authority to manage effectively from the top down.

Some kinds of differences between individuals are recognized by planners and collectivists. Policies divide the population into groups subject to disparate treatments in an effort to meet social goals deemed worthwhile by the collective conscience. As my friend John Crawford said in a recent email: “… to have public policy the individual must be subjugated to the group simply for ease of understanding.” These disparate treatments imply that:

“… the simple act of generating public policy requires racism, ageism, sexism, classism, whatever-ism. Some ‘-ism’ must be conceived of simply so individuals can be grouped into bins, measured so a public policy action can be justified.“

These sorts of policies do not encourage a productive society. Instead, they promote political competition rather than economic competition, division rather than unity, and rent seeking and cronyism instead of productive effort, saving and economic growth. Norman Barry discusses the negative consequences of this shift in orientation in his essay “The Tradition of Spontaneous Order“:

“Hayek is no doubt correct in identifying the main disruptive threat to the preservation of a spontaneous order as the inevitable formation, under present democratic rules, of coalitions of interests which divert the stream of income in a catallaxy to politically-favored groups—to the ultimate harm of all.“

High-Speed Third Rail For Taxpayers

15 Friday May 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Big Government, infrastructure, Taxes

≈ 3 Comments

Tags

Amtrak, Bullet trains, California, capital costs, Carbon Emissions, fare revenue, Frederic Bastiat, High speed rail, infrastructure, Malinvestment, Megabus, operating costs, Privatization, profitability, Public benefits, Public boondoggles, Randall O'Toole, Sean Davis, The Federalist, Transit subsidies

bullet train

Public boondoggles come in many forms, including sports stadiums and entertainment venues, convention centers, local trolly lines, light rail, superhighways, “gold-plated” public offices, and even subsidies for politically-favored (as opposed to market-favored) industries. Anything involving “infrastructure” has an almost perverse  political appeal. The many varieties of boondoggles have much in common from a public finance perspective: ultimately, they are almost always funded by taxpayers; when they confer benefits to private parties (and they usually do), they are underpriced to those users. Taxpayers are often lucky if these projects cover their operating costs, let alone capital costs, via direct revenue generation. Taxpayers are usually on the hook for the bonds. Pure public benefits might offer some justication for this burden, but those cited by project proponents are often unconvincing on that basis. Let’s face it: projects are seldom evaluated against something approximating the true opportunity costs faced by the public or taxpayers.

A prominent example of such a project that seems to capture the political imagination is high-speed rail (HSR). My friend John Crawford emailed the following link: “Doing the math on California’s bullet train fares“. John provided this summary:

“Not surprisingly, today’s fare estimate has risen 72% over the estimate that was cited during planning. That’s telling but probably not surprising to anyone, even those that tried to change opinions by citing the $50 fare. What I think is most interesting follows.

CA-HSR price of 86 is about 20c/mile. Comparable prices are 22c for a Chinese train that everybody agrees to be subsidized, 54c for a French train that is profitable and 50c for the Amtrak corridor on the East coast, which is probably profitable; 46c in Germany. Somehow, they think they can do what nobody else in the world can do…profit at 20c/mile.“

The California authority is either spectacularly arrogant or stupid. Probably the former, because they are doing what self-interested bureaucrats and politicians always do. They want the project to get done, thus creating an empire, kicking a can-full of fare increases and taxpayer liabilities down the road, beyond the time when anyone will hold them accountable for the malinvestment. But the true extent of the malinvestment will never be obvious, because the counter-factual will remain in the unseen world of lost opportunity.

Something I find exasperating about articles like this are references to “profitability”, as in “… state officials say the system will quickly become profitable“, when the meaning is not actual profitability. My friend John did it too, but I forgive him because he knew the score, and because he’ll forgive me for being a pedant (I hope). But this is important! What the California officials mean by “profitability” (and it is a misuse of the term) is fare revenue in excess of operating costs. The latter do not include initial capital costs, so these officials are not making claims about actual profitability. Profitability means that revenue exceeds ALL costs, including capital costs. Many observers consider the California authority’s estimates of operating costs to be suspect, so it’s not even clear that revenue will cover the future costs of capital replacement, let alone the initial installation costs. Construction and planning costs are expected to be $68 billion for Phase 1 only, and you can safely bet on significant additional overruns by the projected completion of Phase 1 in 2029.

Fares calibrated to cover operating costs are not defensible in terms of long-run marginal cost pricing. While an incremental rider does not cause the capital cost of the system to increase in the short run, incremental riders absolutely do have an impact on long-run capital costs. In any case, there are many incremental riders at start-up. The long run is now. Yet, like many public projects, the burden of uncovered costs is justified in terms of other benefits of a supposedly public nature. Here is a vague description of such benefits from the CA HSR Authority:

“California high-speed rail will connect the mega-regions of the state, contribute to economic development and a cleaner environment, create jobs and preserve agricultural and protected lands.“

Let’s take these one at a time:

  • connecting “mega-regions”, if that is a real benefit of HSR relative to alternative modes of transportation, will largely accrue to riders, not the general public.
  • Economic development benefits are possible along the route or near stations, but that is hardly a pure public benefit, and it is likely to come at the expense of development elsewhere.
  • The trains will be powered, at least in part, by energy from fossil fuels. If HSR produces less carbon than equivalent airplanes, autos and other alternatives, that might represent a pure public benefit (according to the carbonphobic), but this is a costly way to achieve a minor reduction in carbon emissions. It is of value only to the extent that HSR brings real substitution away from other, higher carbon modes.
  • Construction jobs are part of the cost of the project, but this is a common ploy and very handy way to sell the project. Gains for the workers are certainly not a pure public benefit. To paraphrase Bastiat, calling construction jobs from malinvested capital a “public benefit” is like calling a broken window beneficial because it provides work for the glazier.
  • As for preserving agricultural and public lands, I do not believe that HSR will make much of a dent in future, land-gobbling highway construction (and if it did, it would offset those vaunted HSR job gains).

The public should always view large public projects like HSR with skepticism and insist that private benefits should be paid privately. There are always alternative uses of taxpayer funds, including the possibility that taxpayers should keep them. Too many public projects become funding disasters. In many cases, private parties would not be willing to buy the facilities for more than 10 cents on the dollar.of original cost.  Without access to tax revenue, only a low purchase price would allow them to operate at a profit.

At the national level, this week’s tragic Amtrak crash near Philadelphia was the context for misguided calls to provide additional funding to the rail service. Sean Davis in The Federalist has a more logical proposal, even if it is a bit radical: not only should Amtrak be privatized, its assets should be given away! And how could anyone reach such a conclusion?

“Amtrak lost nearly $1.3 billion in 2013. Since its creation, Amtrak has racked up over $31 billion in accumulated losses. And every penny of those losses has been covered by federal taxpayers.

… Hand over the entire enterprise to whichever rail company wants it. ‘But that’s crazy!’ you might say. ‘Giving it away for free makes no cents [sic]!’

Well, neither does keeping it on the taxpayers’ books. The status quo costs taxpayers at least a billion dollars each year.“

Davis makes a fair point, though a give-away might attract multiple takers. Ultimately, bidding just might be necessary! Or, perhaps it would be necessary to PAY a private rail operator to take Amtrak off the federal government’s hands. A fairly high payment would still be worthwhile to taxpayers.

Randall O’Toole provides this excellent discussion of privatizing transit in a video  of approximately 17 minutes. He discusses trends in ridership, the inefficiencies inherent in public transportation systems, and compares various market structures and types of private transportation systems, including private intercity buses (Megabus). He also addresses concerns that private transportation systems will not meet the needs of the poor by proposing the substitution of “transit stamps” for the huge subsidies currently paid into transportation bureaucracies.

Subsidized Waste: The Renewable Irony

12 Tuesday May 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Renewable Energy

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Tags

Charles Frank, Christopher Helman, Elon Musk, Energy Matters, Energy storage, Energy subsidies, Lobos Motl, Renewable energy, Tesla Powerwall battery, The Brookings Institution, The Economist, Viv Forbes, Wind and solar

wind damage

The new Tesla “Powerwall” home battery is probably most noteworthy for the breathless hype it has generated. The $3,500 cost for the 10 kWh version is not cheap, and the installed price is probably closer to $7,000. The battery has a limited number of charge cycles, though Tesla has not fully disclosed all of the specifications. People of considerable expertise in this area (not me!) do not believe that Tesla’s new battery is the least bit innovative as an energy storage technology. See this post by Lobos Motl, or this one by Christopher Helman. This is not to say that Tesla has not made contributions to battery technology, only that this variation is not new, except for the marketing.

How can it pay for itself? The promise is not so much for back-up power during outages. Instead, it is an arbitrage play allowing consumers to store power during off-peak hours and avoid usage during peak-price hours. But the application (and hope) that has excited the media and well-meaning greens is efficient storage of power generated by intermittent, renewable sources. Tesla’s marketing effort certainly fostered such hopes; those with home solar panels may have Tesla sugar plums dancing in their heads.

Advocates of renewable energy can rightly claim that the costs of energy storage (and some forms of renewable power generation) have been declining. But there is still a mismatch between expectations and reality: the Tesla battery is not new technology, and it is not really cheap in terms cost per unit of energy stored and later delivered. The economic viability of intermittent sources of power obviously depends on the combined cost of storage, transmission and the power generated by a renewable source relative to other fuels, including the initial capital outlays. This is reviewed at the Energy Matters blog in “The High Cost of Renewables“, which is largely based on this paper from The Brookings Institution by Charles Frank.

It’s relevant to compare renewables such as wind and solar to nuclear energy and natural gas as replacements for “base-load” coal plants. Nuclear and gas power are often touted as viable, reduced or no-carbon solutions to providing for the energy needs. Two issues make renewables more costly than nuclear and gas in terms of installed cost per kilowatt, despite the huge up-front installation costs of nuclear. The first is the intermittency of wind and solar power generation. According to Frank’s calculations at the link above, this factor alone causes solar to be nearly four times as costly as nuclear energy, and wind to be more than 25% more costly. The second issue is that wind and solar installations have short useful lives relative to nuclear. This adds to the wind and solar cost disadvantages, but the practice of dividing costs by the number of years of useful life probably distorts the comparisons. The shorter-lived installations can be expected to involve lower costs at replacement, which should be averaged into a comparison with a longer-lived asset. Still, there is no question that renewables are more costly than gas and nuclear power.

Critics took Frank to task over certain assumptions following the publication of his paper. He offered rebuttals here, here and here in which he revised his calculations in ways that tested his critics’ assertions. Frank’s conclusions are the same:

“Taking all changes into account, my main conclusions are strengthened. Wind continues to rank number four and, by a large margin, solar number five. Gas combined cycle continues to rank number one by a large margin, although nuclear drops from two to three [behind hydroelectric power].”

This article in The Economist also emphasizes the problem of intermittency:

“… countries which have a lot of renewable generation must still pay to maintain traditional kinds of power stations ready to fire up when demand peaks. And energy from these stations also becomes more expensive because they may not run at full-blast.“

“Firing-up” a power station repeatedly consumes fuel at a greater than proportionate rate. If fossil fuels are involved, this process eats into the presumed benefits of using renewables. Of course, there are other factors that make large-scale renewable energy  “farming” undesirable, such as massive land requirements and danger to birds and even marine life. Here is another piece offering a reality check on the true costs of wind power.

Certain forms of renewable energy and energy storage technologies will continue to advance and their costs will decline over time. However, solar and wind power are currently more costly than other alternatives. The benefits of these technologies to society are highly speculative, since models of carbon-forced climate change do a poor job of explaining the actual climate. In any case, climate change, should it occur, is not unambiguously costly. In the absence of more convincing evidence, the costs of renewable energy supplies should be fully internalized by rational actors (who may have personal preferences for renewables) in private, arms-length transactions. Unfortunately, to date, the growth in the share of renewable energy production in most countries has been abetted by government subsidies, so even the aforementioned private actors are collecting rents at the expense of the rest of society. The extra costs imposed on society represent a waste of resources.

In the absence of compelling evidence of pure public benefits, new technologies should be subject to true market tests, not forced upon the public by mandates or encouraged via artificial self-interest created by subsidies. In “Green Energy Policy: ‘Nothing That Works’“, Viv Forbes discusses the real goals of the extreme green lobby, quoting several environmental radicals. Here is the “money” quote:

“… Amory Lovins of the Rocky Mountains Institute, said: ‘It would be little short of disastrous for us to discover a source of clean, cheap, abundant energy, because of what we might do with it.’“

There are a few countries that have attempted to adopt aggressive policies of renewable energy mandates. Here is a discussion of the German “Green Energy Debacle”. Australia has had its share of problems as well. And here is a warning about the implications of green policy and the imposition of “energy poverty on poor countries“.

Government and Perpetual Poverty

07 Thursday May 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Welfare State

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Alex Tabarrok, Anti-Poverty Programs, Baltimore City Schools, dependency, Disincentives, Jon Stewart, Ross Dothan, Thomas Sowell, War on Drugs, Welfare State

welfare-state

The welfare state has 1) reduced measured poverty, but it has 2) failed to provide sufficient opportunity and economic mobility. In “Two Premises on Poverty and Culture“, Ross Douthat writes that it should be easy for Left and Right to agree on these points. #1 is a fairly well-established empirical fact, while #2 leaves plenty of room to debate what went wrong and how to fix it. The Left might well call for more resources to be plowed into the effort; the right believes that the welfare state has fostered dependency and subverted social institutions. The best that can be said is that the modern welfare state leaves the poor “running in place”, but that concedes far too much to programs rife with disincentives for legal, market work effort. I wrote about this topic just over a month ago, in “Poverty Maintenance Is Not a Win“. While Douthat’s short essay sought common ground upon which Right and Left can debate reforms, he notes that anti-poverty programs:

“... raise incomes but also increase dependency, encourage idleness, crowd out the basic institutions of civil society, and so on through the libertarian critique.“

This is not to diminish the waste inherent in other areas of government largess, such as corporate subsidies, defense spending, and over-regulation. Virtually any government program can be called out on waste and unintended consequences. Tonight, however, we’re featuring the dismal results of the welfare state. Thomas Sowell, a well-known African American economist, is uncompromising in his condemnation of the welfare state in connection with recent protests by blacks against perceived injustices in “The Inconvenient Truth about Ghetto Communities“:

“Anyone who is serious about evidence need only compare black communities as they evolved in the first 100 years after slavery with black communities as they evolved in the first 50 years after the explosive growth of the welfare state, beginning in the 1960s. …

We are told that such riots are a result of black poverty and white racism. But in fact — for those who still have some respect for facts — black poverty was far worse, and white racism was far worse, prior to 1960. But violent crime within black ghettos was far less.

There is no doubt that the behavioral dysfunctions induced by welfare state incentives have been compounded by the war on drugs. Like all prohibitions, it offers black market “opportunities” to the poor and unskilled while promoting violence and a high risk of arrest and imprisonment, contributing to the destruction of families and communities. But the welfare state itself effectively subsidizes the drug-war pathway to perdition:

You cannot take any people, of any color, and exempt them from the requirements of civilization — including work, behavioral standards, personal responsibility, and all the other basic things that the clever intelligentsia disdain — without ruinous consequences to them and to society at large.

Non-judgmental subsidies of counterproductive lifestyles are treating people as if they were livestock, to be fed and tended by others in a welfare state — and yet expecting them to develop as human beings have developed when facing the challenges of life themselves.“

The usual trope promoted by the Left is that more resources are required to end the cycle of dependency. That is dubious in light of the dramatic increases in U.S. welfare spending over the past 50 years. Those increases have been fairly steady, yet significant decreases in the incidence of poverty came to an end before 1970:

“Today, government spends 16 times more, adjusting for inflation, on means-tested welfare or anti-poverty programs than it did when the War on Poverty started. But as welfare spending soared, the decline in poverty came to a grinding halt.“

Finally, here is a little object lesson in the way Leftists typically misperceive facts surrounding the actual allocation of budgetary resources and the concomitant results. On April 28th, Jon Stewart said:

“If we are spending a trillion dollars to rebuild Afghanistan’s schools, we can’t, you know, put a little taste Baltimore’s way. It’s crazy.“

Alex Tabarrok castigates Stewart for this gross misrepresentation of the foreign aid budget and the complete distortion of the facts surrounding school funding in Baltimore. Actually, per-student funding for the Baltimore city public schools is over 26% greater (a difference of more than $3,500 per year) than for the schools in Fairfax County, VA. The latter is considered one of the best school districts in the country. The funding of Baltimore schools is dominated by state contributions, but federal funding there exceeds local funding.

Racism And Minimum Wage Fairy Tales

02 Saturday May 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Markets, Price Mechanism, Regulation

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

Carrie Sheffield, David Henderson, Davis Bacon Act, Eugenics, John F. Kennedy, Minimum Wage, Progressive Rhetoric, Racial Discrimination, racism, Thomas Leonard, Thomas Sowell, Walter Williams

unintended-consequences

The real history of the minimum wage is an unsavory tale unknown to most current observers. The myth that it had honorable origins is widespread, with special currency among the progressive Left. Their uncritical support for a higher wage floor reflects a failure to grasp its pernicious economic effects on low-skilled labor and an ignorance of its historical context as a mechanism enabling racial discrimination. In fact, minimum wage legislation was often motivated by racist economic concerns, as Carrie Sheffield explained a year ago in this commentary in Forbes. She quotes, among others, the great Thomas Sowell, an African-American economist, from this opinion piece:

“In an earlier era, when racial discrimination was both legally and socially accepted, minimum-wage laws were often used openly to price minorities out of the job market.“

Sowell cites historical examples of minimum wage legislation intended to harm the employment prospects of Japanese, Chinese and blacks, including the following:

“Some supporters of the first federal minimum-wage law in the United States — the Davis-Bacon Act of 1931 — used exactly the same rationale, citing the fact that Southern construction companies, using non-union black workers, were able to come north and underbid construction companies using unionized white labor.

These supporters of minimum-wage laws understood long ago something that today’s supporters of such laws seem not to have bothered to think through. People whose wages are raised by law do not necessarily benefit, because they are often less likely to be hired at the imposed minimum-wage rate.“

Walter Williams, another well-known African-American economist, provides more evidence of these origins of the wage floor in “Mandated Wages and Discrimination“:

“During the legislative debate over the Davis-Bacon Act, which sets minimum wages on federally financed or assisted construction projects, racist intents were obvious. Rep. John Cochran, D-Mo., supported the bill, saying he had ‘received numerous complaints in recent months about Southern contractors employing low-paid colored mechanics getting work and bringing the employees from the South.’ Rep. Miles Allgood, D-Ala., complained: ‘That contractor has cheap colored labor that he transports, and he puts them in cabins, and it is labor of that sort that is in competition with white labor throughout the country.’ Rep. William Upshaw, D-Ga., spoke of the ‘superabundance or large aggregation of Negro labor.’ American Federation of Labor President William Green said, ‘Colored labor is being sought to demoralize wage rates.’ The Davis-Bacon Act, still on the books today, virtually eliminated blacks from federally financed construction projects when it was passed.“

An article by Thomas C. Leonard in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, “Eugenics and Economics in the Progressive Era“, reinforces the point:

“The progressive economists believed that the job loss induced by minimum wages was a social benefit as it performed the eugenic service ridding the labour force of the unemployable.”

And if that isn’t enough for you, David Henderson has this to say:

“Unions don’t support minimum wage increases because their own members are working at the minimum wage. Virtually all union employees–I’ve never heard of an exception–work at wages above the minimum. Northern unions and unionized firms, for example, have traditionally supported higher minimum wages to hobble their low-wage competition in the South… 

… In a 1957 Senate hearing, minimum-wage advocate Senator John F. Kennedy of Massachusetts, who just four years later would be President of the United States, stated,

‘Of course, having on the market a rather large source of cheap labor depresses wages outside of that group, too – the wages of the white worker who has to compete. And when an employer can substitute a colored worker at a lower wage – and there are, as you pointed out, these hundreds of thousands looking for decent work – it affects the whole wage structure of an area, doesn’t it?’“

One can claim that JFK was advocating for a higher wage floor to benefit all workers, but it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that “protecting” white workers was his priority. And it strains credulity to deny that JFK was aware of the other side of the coin: there would be negative repercussions for low-skilled black workers. What is painfully obvious about minimum wage legislation is that the real beneficiaries are generally not those competing for minimum wage jobs, but more entrenched labor interests.

It is an unfortunate reality that blacks make up a disproportionately large share of the unskilled labor force. According to another commentary by Walter Williams, unemployment among blacks was not a chronic problem in the first half of the 20th century, even among teens, and male labor force participation among blacks was higher than for whites. Over the past 50 years, however, black unemployment has averaged twice the rate for whites. Minimum wage legislation has encouraged this disparity.

Today’s advocates of a higher minimum wage are inadvertently rooting for a policy that compounds the disadvantages faced by the least skilled workers. The minimum wage contributes to a negative disparate impact on black labor market outcomes and prevents blacks from gaining valuable job experience. It is impossible to regulate wages without impinging on hiring decisions, and it is impossible to regulate both wages and hiring without impinging on the survival of employers. To help the unskilled, the best thing policymakers can do is allow them to trade their labor freely.

Censor Me, For My Fathers Have Sinned

30 Thursday Apr 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Marketplace of Ideas

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Ben Affleck, Bryan Caplan, Coyote Blog, Group Identity, Identity Politics, Ideological Turing Test, Original Sin, PBS, Privilege, privileged white male, Warren Meyer

Male Privilege

Are you White? Asian? Male? A stay-at-home mom? Or maybe your family earns too much? Or your parents did? If any of those are “yes”, you just might be disqualified to engage in debate with those who self-proclaim their big-heartedness. You won’t be disqualified if your views are deemed “correct”, but then “debate” won’t really be an issue. If your views are “incorrect”, your privileged-group status is the stain of original sin, as Warren Meyer would say. Not only are you disqualified; you are an appropriate target for ad hominems.

I wrote about this phenomenon after experiencing it first-hand a few months ago in “Privileged While Males May Not Comment“. Warren Meyer at Coyote Blog just got me excited again when he expressed his amazement in “The Left and Original Sin“:

“… the sins of past generations somehow accrue to individuals of this generation. If you are male, you are born guilty for the infractions of all past males.“

Meyer mentions the recent incident involving Ben Affleck, who asked the host of a PBS documentary to omit any mention of a slave-owning Affleck ancestor:

“So an ancestor held opinions about slavery we all would find horrifying today. But given the times, I can bet that pretty much every relative of Affleck’s of that era, slaveholder or no, held opinions (say about women) that we would likely find offensive today.

Congrats to Affleck for achieving some negative alchemy here. He took an issue (his ancestor’s slave-holding) that did not reflect on him at all and converted it via some “I am a star” douchebaggery into something that makes him look like a tool.”

In addition to the demographic origins of sin mentioned above, you are likely to be stained if you believe in the profit motive, gun rights, or any number of other individual liberties. If you can’t be marked as a sinner by some privileged-group identity, the Left will find another label. If you are a black conservative, you will be called an “Uncle Tom”. Dealing with your arguments is just too inconvenient. As Meyer mentions in another recent post, Leftists are particularly unlikely to pass Bryan Caplan’s Ideological Turing test. They simply don’t listen to, or understand, other points of view.

Free Trade Lets You Make a Deal

29 Wednesday Apr 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Free Trade

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Alan Blinder, Bryan Caplan, Economists agree, Fast Track Authority, Free trade, Greg Mankiw, Murphy's Law of Economic Policy, Trade Liberalization, Trans-Pacific Partnership, Tyler Cowan

tariff_cartoon

“Economists have the least influence on policy where they know the most and are most agreed; they have the most influence on policy where they know the least and disagree most vehemently.”

And what a shame! That quote is Alan Blinder’s Murphy’s Law of economic policy, provided by Greg Mankiw in the New York Times. Mankiw’s article, “Economists Actually Agree on This: The Wisdom of Free Trade“, discusses the prospective Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), an agreement that would liberalize trade between the U.S. and a number of Asian nations. A bill is before Congress that would give President Obama “fast track” authority to negotiate the deal. Some provisions of TPP are settled in principle, such as reduced tariffs, free trade unions, a reduced role for the state in the economy, and more transparency. Admittedly, it feels odd to advocate for Barack Obama to negotiate over less government — not to mention transparency!

As Mankiw says, “Among economists, the issue is a no-brainer.” Just as individuals voluntarily engage in trade because it is mutually beneficial, nations should engage in trade when they can specialize in their areas of comparative advantage. Liberalized trade, including reductions in tariffs and removal of quotas and other obstructions, ultimately brings more goods at lower prices. And ultimately, trade liberalization is not really about nations trading with one another. Rather, it is about liberating individuals to trade freely with one another across international borders.

Passage of fast-track authority is not assured. A great deal of nonsense has been written about the agreement. Oddly, people have a big hang-up about imports, but Mankiw notes that this is precisely wrong:

“A nation benefits from imports, [Adam Smith] argued, because they expand its opportunities for consumption. Exports are necessary only because other nations have the temerity to want to be paid for the goods they provide.“

Again, economists across the idealogical spectrum agree with this perspective. Mankiw offers three reasons, attributed to Bryan Caplan, for the public’s ambivalence to free trade:

“The first is an anti-foreign bias. People tend to view their own country in competition with other nations and underestimate the benefits of dealing with foreigners. Yet economics teaches that international trade is not like war but can be win-win.

The second is an anti-market bias. People tend to underestimate the benefits of the market mechanism as a guide to allocating resources. Yet history has taught repeatedly that the alternative — a planned economy — works poorly.

The third is a make-work bias. People tend to underestimate the benefit from conserving on labor and thus worry that imports will destroy jobs in import-competing industries. Yet long-run economic progress comes from finding ways to reduce labor input and redeploying workers to new, growing industries.“

Tyler Cowan is enthusiastic about the prospects for some of the poorest Asian nations to benefit from TPP, especially Vietnam. I seem to recall that he likes the cuisine! Cowan says: “Do you get that, progressives? Poorest country = biggest gainer.“

Is The Patent a Perversion?

28 Tuesday Apr 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Property Rights

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

Alex Tabarroc, Arnold Kling, Beautiful Anarchy, Copyright Clause, Daniel Drezner, Eugene Volokh, Exclusivity, Intellectual Property Rights, James Pethokoukas, Jeffrey Tucker, Lawrence Solum, Legal Theory Blog, Mises Daily, monopoly, Patent Thicket, Rivalrous goods, Roderick T. Long, Stephan Kinsella

money-tree-patent-cartoon

No one likes a monopoly except the monopolist, and a monopoly granted by patent is generally no exception. Patents are intended to be temporary, but they are often extended, at high cost to customers, beyond what many consider necessary as an incentive for innovation. There is also doubt about the validity of many “innovations” on which patents are issued. Alex Tabarrok once posted this cute illustration on the excesses of patent law. He has also discussed the existence of “patent thickets”, situations in which “a new product can require the use of hundreds or even thousands of previous patents, giving each patent owner veto-power over innovation“, or at least a way to skim some of the profits. Such thickets serve as a detriment to innovation, contribute to excessive litigation, and ultimately defeat the purpose of rewarding an innovator. Patent “trolls”, who threaten litigation over patent issues but may not own any patents themselves, have become a growing problem. In many ways, intellectual property laws begin to look like a rent-seeker’s playground. James Pethokoukas blogged late last year about a new study by the Congressional Budget Office stating that the U.S. patent system had “weakened the linkage between patenting and innovation“.

There is strong disagreement among libertarians about the validity of intellectual property rights (IP — copyrights, trademarks and patents). My natural sympathies are with the individual who rightfully seeks to benefit from their own creativity and hard work, but whether an innovator should enjoy a state-enforced monopoly on any and all applications of an idea is another matter. If potential competitors, customers and society have an obligation to this individual, some would insist that it is merely an ethical obligation, not one that should be sanctioned by the state.

In what follows, I will mostly refer to generic “ideas”, with the caveat that there are important distinctions between patents, trademarks and copyrights. I do not mean to minimize those distinctions. Rather, my interest lies in the general notion of intellectual property and any fundamental rights that successful “ideation” should confer. I confess that I have a bias in favor of rewarding innovators, but that might be a mere mental remnant of our legacy of IP protection in the U.S.

Suppose that some person, Mr. I, has an idea, and it is the first of its kind. Should Mr. I be granted an exclusive right to the idea and a monopoly on its application? Two qualities of tangible property are thought to be helpful in thinking about this kind of problem: rivalrousness and exclusivity. Rivalrous benefits make sharing difficult and make a thing more suitable as private property. Exclusivity means that others can be restricted from enjoying the benefits. If ideas had these qualities, then possession of an idea would settle the issue of rights without the need for special recognition of IP by government.

Pure public goods like air are non-rivalrous. Ideas themselves are often said to be non-rivalrous, but what is done with them might produce rivalrous benefits. If the benefits of Mr. I’s idea can be enjoyed by one individual without diminishing the benefits to others, then the idea is non-rivalrous.

Exclusivity is a closely-related but separate concept meaning that the benefits can be enjoyed privately, to the exclusion of others. Pure public goods lack both rivalrousness and exclusivity. On the other hand, a painting can be owned and kept in a private home, thus making it exclusive despite the fact that its benefits are largely non-rivalrous; though multiple individuals can enjoy a film simultaneously (non-rivalrous), it can be screened in a private venue charging admission; and while software can be shared, it is possible to achieve a measure of exclusivity by limiting the media (and replicability) through which it is available. However, the idea underlying a productive machine or process may be exclusive only to the extent that it cannot be discovered or reverse-engineered. While a new machine may be purchased from Mr. I and then owned and used exclusively, the idea itself has only limited exclusivity.

To strip the problem down to bare essentials, suppose there are no frictions in the transmission of information and that if Mr. I makes any practical use of his idea, or even mentions it to someone else, then the idea will be immediately known to all others. The idea itself is non-rivalrous and non-exclusive. There could still be gains to marketing applications if there are production costs involved (as that discourages entry), and those gains are rivalrous if the number of potential buyers is limited. To slightly rephrase the original question: Should Mr. I be granted, by the power of the state, an exclusive right and a monopoly on applications of his idea? A brilliant idea may have a rivalrous dimension and its benefits may be exclusive, but any non-exclusivity of the idea itself will diminish its market value. Does that offer sufficient grounds for the existence of IP?

This was essentially Eugene Volokh’s position when he asserted, in 2003, that a non-rivalrous good (water from the water table) has a market value, like any piece of tangible property, as long as it is possible to exclude others from access (to a well). (But that was not Volokh’s main argument in support of IP — see below.) Lawrence Solum at Legal Theory Blog took issue with Volokh’s position on valuation, insisting that it is often impossible to price IP optimally and therefore it is not like tangible property. Here is Volokh’s brief rejoinder, which rests partly on the argument discussed in the next paragraph.

A standard defense for IP is that rewarding invention and creativity enhances incentives for “great works” and technological advance. This was Volokh’s main defense of IP. Many libertarians find this hard to swallow, however. First, they insist that creative action is often driven by non-pecuniary motives. Nevertheless, art and invention are facilitated by funding, so the existence of IP rights may help to secure that support. A second objection is that ideas are frequently not unique; there are many examples of near-simultaneous discoveries. So, as this objection goes, if A hadn’t thought of it, B would have, and the incentive is often unnecessary. That is anything but absolute, however.

A very libertarian argument against property rights for ideas is that defining such a right infringes on the property rights of others. That is, any law restricting the use of an idea by others necessarily prevents them from using their own resources in a particular way. It therefore represents a kind of taking. This post by Stephan Kinsella at the Mises Daily stakes out this position:

“Patents grant rights in ‘inventions’ — useful machines or processes. They are grants by the state that permit the patentee to use the state’s court system to prohibit others from using their own property in certain ways — from reconfiguring their property according to a certain pattern or design described in the patent, or from using their property (including their own bodies) in a certain sequence of steps described in the patent.

In both cases, the state is assigning to A a right to control B’s property: A can tell B not to do certain things with it. Since ownership is the right to control, IP grants to A co-ownership of B’s property.“

Kinsella’s view is that creation, in and of itself, does not imply ownership. It is a transformation of resources, but ultimately the owner of those resources must own the creation. My difficulty with this argument is that an idea, if previously unknown to anyone, has no necessary impact on a prior use of resources owned by others. The ex ante value of those resources is based on their prior use, and that use can be continued. Certainly, if the new idea implies that the prior use is no longer the best use of those resources, then an patent-like restriction on the use of the new idea represents a harm. For example, if the new idea reduces production costs and an established competitor is restricted from using the idea, they will be harmed. Nevertheless, I hesitate to call this a “taking” because there is no restriction on the prior use.

Roderick T. Long makes the same argument as Kinsella in “The Libertarian Case Against Intellectual Property Rights“:

“... information is not a concrete thing an individual can control; it is a universal, existing in other people’s minds and other people’s property, and over these the originator has no legitimate sovereignty. You cannot own information without owning other people.“

Long makes the further claim that ownership of inventions embodying IP is not legitimate because one cannot own a “law of nature”:

“Defenders of patents claim that patent laws protect ownership only of inventions, not of discoveries. (Likewise, defenders of copyright claim that copyright laws protect only implementations of ideas, not the ideas themselves.) But this distinction is an artificial one. Laws of nature come in varying degrees of generality and specificity; if it is a law of nature that copper conducts electricity, it is no less a law of nature that this much copper, arranged in this configuration, with these other materials arranged so, makes a workable battery.“

I find this view preposterous. Nature exists apart from our ability to exploit it. A new piece of knowledge or practical technique is not itself a “law of nature”. It is a discovery about the laws of nature.

Here are Arnold Kling’s thoughts on these and other IP posts, including this short piece from Daniel Drezner, who discusses the importance of credible commitment in protecting rights. A credible commitment does not exist when ex ante assertions of IP protection prove to be malleable ex post, under pressure from critics pointing to the larger gains of rescinding those protections.

I was motivated to write about IP after reading a post by Jeffrey Tucker at the Beautiful Anarchy blog, who wrote about the severe handicaps imposed by government regulation on society. In that post, he briefly disparaged IP. Tucker noted the spooky similarity of the present regulatory environment to Ayn Rand’s novel Anthem. I agree, but there is some irony in this, as Rand herself was a strong supporter of IP rights. Here is what Tucker said about IP:

“Through intellectual property laws, the state literally assigned ownership to ideas that are the source of innovation, thereby restricting them and entangling entrepreneurs in endless litigation and confusion. Products are kept off the market. Firms that would come into existence do not. Profits that would be earned never appear. Intellectual property has institutionalized slow growth and landed the economy in a thicket of absurdity.“

The nation’s founders certainly wished to recognize IP rights, but only within limits. The so-called Copyright Clause in Article I of the U.S. Constitution empowers Congress:

“To promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts, by securing for limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries.”

So, like it or not, IP is recognized in the Constitution. The libertarian arguments against IP are persuasive in some respects, but I am not wholly convinced of their wisdom in terms of promoting innovation and economic growth. However, I am persuaded that shorter patent duration and severe limits on extensions would reward innovators and offer them incentives without the loss of growth implied by a long-term grant of monopoly. And this sort of modification might encourage more efforts to handle IP contractually, a topic that is discussed in detail (and with skepticism) in the post linked above from Long. There may be benefits as well to defining a higher threshold as to patentable ideas. For example, some say that only discoveries, not mere innovations, should be granted patents. “Mere” innovators could still capture gains via first-mover advantage and their own branding efforts, but not via patents.

ZIRP: Zero Interest Retirement Poverty

22 Wednesday Apr 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Macroeconomics

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

Austrian Economics, Barron's, Ben Bernanke, EconoMonitor, Federal Reserve, Income effect, Keynesianism, Phoenix Capital Management, Randall Forsyth, rate of time preference, saving behavior, Substitution effect, The Economist, Thorsten Polliet, Trust Your Instincts, ZIRP

seniors

Far be it from me to make a Keynesian economic argument, but I will play devil’s advocate and do so at the risk of alienating any Austrian friends in the audience. They might or might not appreciate the point before I’m done. Writing in Barron’s, Randall Forsyth argues that a zero or negative real interest rate, or specifically a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP), will backfire on central banks precisely because low rates add to the pressure on consumers to save. If that is the case, in the Keynesian paradigm, the policy would undermine consumer demand and lead to weaker growth.

I find it plausible that savers might react to extremely low interest rates by increasing saving. With an aging population and baby boomers fast approaching their retirement years, low interest rates mean diminished opportunities to build on existing assets. The only way to bring more assets into retirement safely is to save more. There has been much said about the impact of quantitative easing and ZIRP on asset values, and the tendency of investors to “reach” for higher, but risker, returns. However, a decent, safe return is hard to come by.

This kind of saving behavior is easy enough to demonstrate for a consumer who must choose between present and future consumption. Present consumption is limited by what the consumer can earn now. Future consumption is limited by what the consumer saves now (does not consume) and the real return or interest rate that can be earned on that saving. The consumer maximizes well being by choosing the most-preferred “bundle” of present consumption and future consumption attainable. But when the interest rate falls to zero, for example, the consumer must reallocate the bundle.

First, the “effective price” of present consumption has declined, since less future consumption must be sacrificed in order to to consume now. So there is a tendency to reallocate the bundle toward more present consumption as a pure “substitution effect”. However, the consumer’s lifetime income has declined precisely because the real rate at which present saving can be transformed into future consumption has decreased. The bundles available for the consumer to choose from are now unambiguously less preferred than the original bundle. Faced with this worsened constraint, the consumer may choose to divide the sacrifice between present consumption and future consumption. The negative income effect on present consumption may well outweigh the substitution effect.

This is standard economics, but relatively little has been said about the possibility. Instead, it is widely assumed that ZIRP must reduce saving, but there have been a few writers making the argument that saving may increase. In 2010, the Buttonwood column in The Economist made this argument in a piece entitled “Another Paradox of Thrift“. In 2012, the Trust Your Instincts blog ran this interesting piece on ZIRP and saving behavior in which the possibility is discussed. For the same reason, Phoenix Capital Management asserted that “QE and ZIRP Are Deflationary“, And the same thing is mentioned in EconoMonitor.

Continuing to indulge Forsyth’s possibility, it does not imply that increased saving from ZIRP will be channeled into productive investment. That’s because governments continue to absorb private saving by running historically large deficits. But I must note that the possibility of increased saving in response to ZIRP may contradict a couple of points made in an earlier post on Sacred Cow Chips: “Taking The Air Out of the Deflation Scare“. That post quotes Thorsten Polliet in support of the notion that the rate of time preference underlying consumer behavior cannot be zero or negative. Does that conclusion change when consumers order bundles rationally with a budget constraint that implies a negative return? In fact, the macroeconomic concept of a time preference “parameter” appears to be inconsistent with the normal micro theory of consumer utility maximization.

Increased saving from ZIRP leads to a second apparent contradiction of Polliet, who says:

“Should a central bank really succeed in making all market interest rates negative in real terms, savings and investment would come to a shrieking halt: as time preference and the originary interest rate are always positive, “capitalistic saving” — the accumulation of goods designed for improving the production process — would come to an end.”

But again, the possibility that saving may increase does not imply that capital investment will increase as well, as long as the government is absorbing the increased saving. In fact, the adoption of ZIRP policies around the developed world seems in large part intended to accommodate large government deficits by keeping interest costs low.

The evidence that ZIRP encourages saving is mixed. Japanese saving rates tended to edge up over the country’s many years of ZIRP (since 1999). More recent experience in the EU seems mixed. In the U.S., saving rates increased during the financial crisis even before ZIRP began, moved down during the recovery, but have since returned to relatively high levels. The Federal Reserve claims that consumers continue to unwind the excessive leverage that built up prior to the recession, and of course that is saving. Paying down debt certainly carries a higher and safer return than many other options. ZIRP cannot be counted upon to encourage consumer spending, and it may well do the opposite.

Progressives Identify Twin Evils: Progress and People

20 Monday Apr 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Human Welfare

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Big Coffee Table Book of Doom, Depopulation, Dismal Science, Don Beaudreaux, Fixed Supply, Free Markets, Infinite Resource, Kevin Williamson, Overdevelopment, Overpopulation, Overshoot, Ramez Naam, Reason, Ron Bailey, Scarcity, Thomas Malthus

doom and gloom

“The Big Coffee Table Book of Doom” is an entertaining review of an actual coffee table book entitled “Overdevelopment Overpopulation Overshoot“, which appeals to the progressive Left’s neo-Malthusian mindset. I am almost tempted to buy this book for my coffee table as fodder for my own amusement, sort of like the board game “Class Struggle” I bought for laughs when I was in grad school. The review, written by Ron Bailey in Reason, pokes fun at the selection of photos in the book, which are chosen to reinforce such fables as over-population, climate change and the supposed evils of capitalism. Of course, this sort of nonsense will never die, primarily because people love a good scare story and because it aligns with the privileged Left’s sense of righteousness and noblesse oblige. Bailey highlights several actual trends that contradict the doomsday narrative:

“Agricultural productivity per acre is improving faster than the demand for food; as a result, fewer acres are needed to grow crops. These trends suggest that as much as 400 million hectares could be restored to nature by 2060, an area nearly double the size of the United States east of the Mississippi River.“

“… the total global fertility rate has fallen from over 5 children per woman in 1970 to 2.45 today, rapidly approaching the 2.1 rate that is the threshold of population stability.“

And on the “perils” of urbanization:

“Urban dwellers have greater access to education, market opportunities, and medicine, and they have fewer kids.“

As Kevin Williamson has pointed out, an egregious distortion of the neo-Malthusian perspective is an attitude that human beings are liabilities rather than assets. This is underscored by the recent comments of a UN official calling for depopulation as a serious objective. One wonders how she might propose to attain that objective. Can the eliminationists be far behind? In rebuttal to such thinking, Bailey quotes Ramez Naam, author of “Infinite Resource“:

“‘Would your life be better off if only half as many people had lived before you?’ In this thought experiment, you don’t get to pick which people are never born. Perhaps there would have been no Newton, Edison, or Pasteur, no Socrates, Shakespeare, or Jefferson. ‘Each additional idea is a gift to the future,’ Naam writes. ‘Each additional idea producer is a source of wealth for future generations.’ Fewer people means fewer new ideas about how to improve humanity’s lot and to further decouple our endeavors from the natural world. ‘If we fix our economic system and invest in the human capital of the poor,’ Naam writes, ‘then we should welcome every new person born as a source of betterment for our world and all of us on it.'”

Population growth has traditionally been a source of economic growth and enhanced welfare, and that is likely to remain the case. I do not claim that population growth will always be an imperative. Rather, fertility decisions are properly the business of families and individuals, not central authorities or public policy, which should take a neutral stance with respect to these decisions.

Malthusian doom is related to the economic law of scarcity, but it is not a direct implication of that law: scarcity means that resource availability is limited relative to potentially limitless demand. The law of scarcity does not assert that there are absolute limits to raw materials or production in the long run, only that human wants, if unrestrained, will always exceed available supplies. There are many ways in which supplies of resources increase over time. Exploration reveals new supplies and technology makes new supplies accessible at lower cost. More fundamentally, growth in the productivity of utilized resources causes effective economic supplies to grow. This is illustrated in Don Beaudreaux’s recent essay on the productivity of land (and see a follow-ups on the topic here):

“The economic supply of land, like that of any other resources you can name, is not a physical phenomenon. As long as people are free and inspired to innovate – and as long as input and output prices are free to adjust to changes in supply and demand – the economic supplies of even the most ‘fixed’ and ‘nonrenewable’ resources will expand.“

Prognostications of doom for humanity appeal to the ignorance of those with no perspective on the mechanisms by which well-being has improved in the developed world over the past few centuries. This has occurred largely by virtue of human ingenuity and free markets. The growth has also enabled greatly improved environmental conditions. The developing world will share in the prosperity only when those governments embrace real market liberalization.

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