Climate Negotiators To Discuss Economic Cannibalism

18 Wednesday Nov 2015

Tags

AGW, Anthropomorphic Global Warming, Bjorn Lomborg, Carbon Emissions, Climate Change, COP 21, Don Boudreaux, economic growth, Foundation For a Positive Planet, Global Carbon Budget, Industrial Pollution, IPCC, Kuznets Curve, Manhattan Institute, Natural Pollution, Oren Cass

There is virtually zero chance that the coming round of international talks on climate change will produce a substantive agreement. The United Nations’ 21st Conference of the Parties (COP 21) on Climate Change is scheduled will be held in Paris, France from November 30 to December 11. The failure of earlier conferences to produce a meaningful pact informs us of the low odds of success: this conference, like the others, will be unproductive in any real sense. As in the past, there are severely conflicting objectives among the parties. Oren Cass explains the reasons in a recent report from the Manhattan Institute, “Leading Nowhere: The Futility and Farce of Global Climate Negotiations“:

“… there is no plausible path to an agreement premised on collective action or compensation: developing nations that must bear the brunt of emissions reductions in any successful scenario cannot achieve those reductions while pursuing rapid economic growth; developed nations cannot sufficiently compensate developing ones for forgoing such growth. Evidence from recent negotiations, as well as preparations for the next round of talks, reinforces this conclusion. … [A] third path to an agreement—coercion—has received little attention. No group of nations appears prepared to employ the approach and risk subsequent conflict.“

Even the President of the Foundation For a Positive Planet asks, “What Purpose Does COP 21 Still Serve?”

It’s worth emphasizing that the the developing world will account for 79% of the world’s cumulative carbon emissions by 2100 under a moderate growth scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cass points out that even if the world’s developed countries ceased all carbon emissions immediately, developing countries would face an impossible task in cutting emissions sufficiently to stay within the IPCC’s estimated “safe carbon budget” for the globe. The best that can be said is that the IPCC might be trying to set the bar high for negotiators, although that would make claims of success at COP 21 difficult. Perhaps that’s fine for activists, because they’ll have an ongoing “crisis” to meet their insatiable need for doomsaying.

Relatively impoverished developing countries will not wish to sacrifice their own economic growth at the altar of climate worship without compensation. In fact, redistribution might be a better description than compensation, which just might be the real point of the conference for many developing countries. Promises of carbon reductions are not guarantees in any case. Future compensation to the developing world, if any, should be contingent on actual results. But no matter the outcome of the negotiations, the importance of cheap words will be exaggerated.

The magnitude of any negotiated reductions in carbon emissions will be inadequate to put much of a dent in actual, climate outcomes, but they will be costly. Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Bjorn Lomborg describes estimates of lost global output due to proposed carbon cutbacks of $1 – $2 trillion each year by 2030 and beyond. That’s roughly 1% – 2% of projected real GDP. of course, there is considerable uncertainty around those estimates and even more around the magnitude of the possible climate effects. Lomborg estimates a best-case outcome amounting to a reduction in global temperatures of a fraction of a degree Fahrenheit. That difference could easily be swamped by natural climate effects. Worth it?

Indeed, imposed limits on economic growth will compound the difficulty of improving carbon efficiency and would consign third-world populations to an impoverished existence in both economic and environmental terms.

President Obama has promised significant carbon reduction in the U.S. However, the COP 21 negotiations do not fall under the “fast-track” authority that Obama was granted by Congress last May over trade agreements. Instead, the hoped-for climate agreement has been characterized as an update to a 1992 treaty to avoid a Congressional ratification process. In addition, Obama has already issued executive orders to push forward the climate measures he has promised to other parties to COP 21. So much for the separation of powers. However, a number of states are not taking it lying down. In fact, 24 states and others have filed suit against the new regulations, asking the D.C. Circuit Court to stay the regulatory plan while the case moves through the courts.

Anthropomorphic global warming (AGW) has been a preoccupation of the alarmist left since the late 20th century, when surface temperatures trended upward for a few decades. Climate change (10 posts at this link), on the other hand, is and always has been a fact of life, but the satellite temperature record has been trendless since the mid 1990s, while the alarmist climate models have predicted significant warming. Beyond the predictions themselves, there is little to suggest that some warming would constitute a disaster for mankind, and perhaps it would be a boon.

Nevertheless, even if we stipulate that carbon emissions must be reduced, there is an innocuous alternative to government regulatory intrusions and taxes for achieving that end: the enhanced carbon efficiency and technological innovation that economic growth makes possible. One of my favorite bloggers, economist Don Boudreaux, explains the logic of this alternative in this excellent post: “Economic Growth and Pollution Abatement“. He takes a “broad view” of pollution, not simply carbon or other industrial pollutants, because there are many forms of “natural” pollution that inflict greater misery than carbon ever will. With that in mind, Boudreaux appeals to the following relationships between pollution and income (or production):

Here is his description of the chart:

“The red curve in the nearby graph is the standard environmental Kuznets curve. This red curve shows the relationship between per-capita income and industrial pollutants. The blue curve shows the relationship between per-capita income and what we might, as a short-hand, call “naturally occurring pollutants” (that is, filth such as bacteria, mud on indoor floors, and rodent and bird droppings from the ceiling of one’s home).“

The red curve implies that a cleaner environment is a “luxury good”. I would also point out that the ascent of the red line at relatively low income levels will be muted by the substitution of cleaner fuels for primitive forms such as dung- and wood-burning, often burned indoors. This is consistent with Boudreaux’s point, though in a way that is not directly addressed by his explanation of the chart:

“… my hypothesis – which I believe is borne out by the historical record – is that people almost immediately start to consume greater cleanliness as they become wealthier.“

The combination of the two lines in the chart shows that economic growth is not unambiguously “bad” for the environment. It has certainly proven to be a good thing in terms of human health and welfare. As a consequence, developing countries should not be so foolish as to sacrifice economic growth for immediate carbon reductions. On the other hand, they may well make “promises” in exchange for massive compensation.

Neither should the world be singularly focused on immediate carbon reductions, because economic growth will be accompanied by improvements in carbon efficiency and the development of technologies far superior to today’s wasteful renewables. The activists attending COP 21 hope to improve the world, but they would saddle humanity with unnecessary burdens. I pity the denizens of countries whose leaders force costly authoritarian energy policies upon them in an effort to set, or comply with, a radical agenda. Oh, wait, that might be us! But I am optimistic that any agreement reached in Paris, if there is any, won’t hold or won’t matter.

Rent Seeking For Social Justice At Mizzou

15 Sunday Nov 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Education

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Billy Donley, Columbia MO, Concerned Student 1950, Eugene Volokh, First Amendment, Forced Diversity, Free expression, Gary Pinkel, Jason Whitlock, Jonathan Butler, Legion of Black Collegians, Missouri Students Association, Mizzou, Mizzou Tigers Football, Obamacare, Payton Head, Planned Parenthood, R. Bowen Loftin, rent seeking, Tim Wolfe, University of Missouri

Pre-blog postscript: In the wake of the tumultuous week discussed below, tonight Mizzou’s football team, which has struggled on the field this year, defeated a very good squad from Brigham Young University. Despite my strong misgivings about the actions of team members last week, tonight I am very proud of Mizzou, white, black and gold. Go Tigers!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

There is weak justification at best for the uproar over supposed racism and social injustice at Mizzou (the University of Missouri’s main campus in Columbia, MO). A protest highlighted by a hunger strike by one graduate student, a boycott by football players, and the threat of a walkout by faculty in nine academic departments led to the resignation last week of the university system’s president and the Mizzou chancellor, who were accused of inadequate sensitivity to the grievances of African-American students. The broader context for the protest is a nationwide assault on free speech, especially on college campuses, with demands for “safe spaces” and “trigger warnings” to protect students from words and acts that they might find offensive. This sensitivity is unbounded, and there is no limit to the censorship and fascism it brings forth in its proponents. From such sentiments are book-burners made.

It is a shame to see a great university like Mizzou reduced to groveling at the feet of petulant children who, ostensibly, have come to be educated, and often with financial support from the school. Full disclosure: Mizzou is my alma mater, so I am especially saddened by these developments. At the end of this post, I provide details on incidents that occurred at Mizzou over nearly three months leading up to the protest. Several of the incidents involved unproven and even false claims by the protestors.

Like it or not, speech outside the classroom by students at public universities has broad protection under the First Amendment. According to Eugene Volokh:

“Most clearly, students generally may not be expelled, suspended, or otherwise disciplined for what they say in student newspapers, at demonstrations, in out-of-class conversations, and the like… even if it’s offensive, wrongheaded, racist, contemptuous, anti-government, or anti-administration. Of course, it’s not protected from university criticism. The university is itself free to publicly speak to condemn student statements that university officials find to be unsound or improper.“

There are exceptions to this protection in the case of “fighting words” and “incitement”, but that kind of offense must be proven before an individual can be punished. It is absurd to demand that a university engage in unconstitutional restrictions on speech. Even if that were legal, it is unreasonable to expect a university to effectively police all speech on campus.

The Mizzou administration did take action this semester in the only case in which an individual engaging in racist speech was identified. The offender was intoxicated and disrupted an organization’s private rehearsal (see below). Whether he used “fighting words” is unknown, but a “conduct process” is still underway in his case. In addition, mandatory diversity training for students and faculty was announced by the chancellor in early October. It appears that the president, responsible for four campuses, may have delegated responsibility for managing the controversies in Columbia to the chancellor, but the failure of the president to respond directly was taken as dismissive. But in fact, Mizzou already had processes in place to address diversity issues, and the chancellor was active in communicating the administration’s concerns and support to minority students via social media. Still, the protestors assert that they were ignored and that no action was taken, among other falsehoods (see below).

In addition to an apology and removal of the University System president for “inaction”, the protestors demanded that the University meet a number of other conditions. These included a “racial awareness and inclusion curriculum throughout all campus departments” to be vetted by “students, staff, and faculty of color.” The protesters also demanded: “an increase the percentage of black faculty and staff campus-wide to 10%“; a 10-year strategic plan to improve retention of “marginalized students“; increased funding “for the purpose of hiring additional mental health professionals — particularly those of color“; and increased “funding and personnel for the social justice centers on campus for the purpose of hiring additional professionals, particularly those of color…”

The demands of the student protestors (and their faculty supporters) represent an exercise in rent seeking. They are attempting to commandeer resources at the cost of academic and educational efforts not explicitly dedicated to the theme of diversity and inclusion. If all of the demands are met, damage will be sustained by nearly all fields of study at Mizzou.

One of my frequent complaints about the Left is their inability to understand that rewards in a market economy are not zero-sum. Instead, they are earned by creating new value to be used in trade and enjoyed by others. The rent-seeking process disrupts that flow of benefits by using the power of government to extract resources from others for one’s private benefit, which then yields a negative-sum outcome for society. However, the resources sought by the Mizzou protestors must come from a public educational system for which funding is scarce. Funds provided to Mizzou by the state of Missouri have fallen significantly over the years, yet state law prohibits tuition increases for undergraduate residents exceeding the growth in the CPI. While the protestors might view their demands as reparation for past and ongoing injustices, many are already subsidized by an institution of higher learning that is strapped, and one that is already at their disposal for purposes of building their human capital. They should avail themselves of that opportunity so they can use that capital later in positive sum activities.

I also think the protests at Mizzou are symptomatic of misplaced priorities on the Left. I highly recommend this excellent essay by Jason Whitlock, an African-American sports journalist who notes that the protests at Mizzou have been given rapt attention by the Left, while the far more serious problem of black-on-black violence receives proportionately little play.

Much like other demands for “social justice”, the Mizzou protestors do not recognize the counterproductive nature of their activities and the measures they advocate. Merit will always be relied upon as as a standard by which people judge others. In a market system, it is a fairly objective standard at that. To a truly neutral observer, diversity is fine, but it is beside the point, and forced diversity often leads to suspicions of unfair play and resentment.

I find the attitude of the protestors appalling on several levels: the lies and the rent-seeking behavior, the damage they will inflict on Mizzou and their fellow students, and their rejection of good-faith efforts to address their concerns. To cap it all off, please read the childish posts shown in this article, in which the Mizzou protestors selfishly complain that the terrorist attacks in Paris have taken attention away from them, going so far as to characterize as “racist” the relative balance of coverage. Simply disgusting!

Sadly, there have been threats of violence on campus in the wake of recent developments. This week, a white teen in Rolla, Missouri, 100 miles from Columbia, was arrested and is being held without bond for making posts on social media that threatened black students at Mizzou. At the same time, hostility and threats toward campus greeks led to a lock-down at fraternities and sororities. As to racism, there is no doubt that it exists, but Mizzou is not exceptional in that regard. On campus, I believe that more racial tension is borne out of agitation from protestors than by any racist sentiments held by others. When the protestors acknowledge examples of apparently neutral, non-racist behavior by others, they insist that the racism they are fighting at Mizzou is systemic. Appeasing these complainants requires a ongoing series of reparations in the form of financial support, control over hiring, quotas and mandatory indoctrination. But here’s a clue: the social justice rap will never win the rewards and respect that arise naturally from hard work.

MIZ – ZOU!

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Here are key events or claims that led up to the present brouhaha at Mizzou, along with my editorial comments:

August 14: The university announced that it would no longer offer direct subsidies to graduate assistants for the purchase of health insurance. The reason? Obamacare prohibits the kind of low-cost, “individual market” policies (per IRS interpretation) offered by many schools. Mizzou, however, promised to provide a one-time fellowship to cover the economic loss suffered by grad students in the fall semester. When students threatened a walk-out, the university reinstated the subsidies, but with the proviso that a later review would be necessary. This incident had nothing to do with racism, but it inflamed passions. An African-Americam grad student named Jonathan Butler was very upset, even though his family is quite affluent and more than capable of affording his coverage.

August – September 2015: Mizzou cancelled contracts with Planned Parenthood (PP) clinics in the wake of the release of videos showing PP officials discussing the sale of fetal “tissue”. There was pressure on the school’s administration to cut ties with PP and revoke the “refer and follow” privileges of an abortion surgeon from St. Louis. These developments were very upsetting to the campus Left, and while gender-equality activists probably thought they had a legitimate gripe, the action should not be conflated with racism. Nevertheless, Jonathan Butler listed this issue as one of his grievances, and it helped to broaden support for his cause among the student Left.

October 3: The President of the Missouri Student Association, Payton Head, claimed that several men riding in the back of a pickup truck screamed racial slurs as he walked across campus. That is awful, but unless he can identify the individuals or the truck, nothing can be done about that particular incident. It was featured in Butler’s grievance letter to the university. Presumably, the school needs to racially-sensitize anyone with access to campus.

October 6: A white student, apparently drunk, interrupts a rehearsal of the Royalty Court of the Legion of Black Collegians with racial epithets. The student was identified the next day and removed from campus by the Office of Student Conduct pending the outcome of an ongoing disciplinary procedure.

October 10: The Homecoming parade is interrupted when University System President Tim Wolfe’s car is surrounded by students from an organization called Concerned Student 1950. (1950 was the first year that black students were admitted to Mizzou.) Wolfe instructs his driver to back away from the students. With more space between the car and the protestors, the driver attempts to proceed slowly to the right around the group. In this video, Jonathan Butler can then be seen rushing toward the moving car and planting his knees into the bumper. He later accused Wolfe and his driver of running into him. As the narrator on the video states, if this were an insurance case, that sort of fraud might get Butler arrested. After a short blank segment on the video, a so-called “townie” and a few other Mizzou football fans step forward to act as a barrier between Wolfe’s car and the protesters. Ultimately, Wolfe asked police to remove the protestors from the parade route. That was characterized as evidence of neglect on Wolfe’s part. Andrew McCarthy notes the following about Jonathon Butler:

“By the way, the racism is apparently so bad at Mizzou that Mr. Butler has chosen to pursue his Master’s degree (in education) there after attending the university as an undergraduate. Now in his eighth year at Mizzou, he hopes, according to NBC News, ‘to become an advocate and ‘social entrepreneur.””

October 24, 2015: Human feces is discovered on the floor of a restroom in a university residence hall; it had been used to smear a swastika on the wall. This is now confirmed by a campus police report, though no photographs of the “poop swastika” have been produced. (Apparently, a one-year-old photo of similar graffiti was circulated by protestors). The “poopetrator” has not been identified. The act could have been inspired by anti-Semitism, white supremism, simple pranksterism (albeit viciously expressed) , or quite possibly fraudulent agitation meant to incite fears on campus. The incident really did incite fears when it was communicated on social media by Residence Halls Association President Billy Donley. The poop swastika was taken as additional evidence of a bad racial climate at Mizzou, though the affair is suspect.

November 3: Butler begins a hunger strike in an impromptu “tent city” on campus. A student boycott of classes is announced the next day. I have strong doubts about Butler’s credibility (see below) and whether the hunger strike was authentic. He did not look or act like a hungry man before he ate his first post-strike sandwich, but I could be wrong.

November 8: Black football players announce their support of Butler by refusing to practice or play until President Wolfe apologizes and resigns. The next day, Coach Gary Pinkel tweets his support for the black players, and the athletic director agrees. Many of the white players also express support for the player boycott by appearing in a group photo, but it has been reported that not all of them agreed. (I personally believe that the whole lot of the boycotters were played by Butler and his organization.) On November 13, Coach Pinkel resigns, effective December 31, but the reason is a recent diagnosis of non-Hodgkins lymphoma (non-fatal). Some things are simply more important than in-fighting at the university. Coach Pinkel’s announcement, as sad as it is, may well help to defuse the immediate tensions.

November 10: President Wolfe and Chancellor R. Bowen Loftin resign. Butler ends his hunger strike with a sandwich as his friends urge him on with the expression “Yay N—–“, an utterance that may strike some as hypocritical. The football player boycott ends the next day.

On the evening of November 10 at about 11 p.m., Payton Head, the student body president, posted the following on Facebook:

“Students please take precaution. Stay away from windows in residence halls. The KKK has been confirmed to be cited on campus. I’m working with the MUPD, the state trooper [sic], and the National Guard.“

The news spread quickly. Head deleted the post by 11:30 and later apologized and accepted blame for spreading false information. Good for his accountability. His advice at that time was to trust only the @MUalert system, which had posted: “There is no immediate threat to campus. Please do not spread rumors…” 19 minutes before Head’s KKK post.

ObumbleCare & The Adverse Selectors

11 Wednesday Nov 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Obamacare

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adverse selection, Death Spiral, Emergency room utilization, Exchange-based plans, Medicaid expansion, Mercatus Center, Michael Tanner, Non-market solutions, Obamacare, Obamacare enrollment

“… out in the real world, the bad news keeps coming, drop by drop, drip by drip, until we are seeing a virtual flood of Obamacare awfulness.“

That’s from Michael D. Tanner in “What’s Wrong With Obamacare?” Tonight, I offer you a list of some of the drippings:

Flat enrollment, expected to be less than half of the original projection for 2016;
Almost all (97%) newly insureds under Obamacare are enrolled under expanded Medicaid, unaided by the many complexities introduced by Obamacare;
12 of 23 federal health care insurance coops have failed as of Nov. 3;
High medical loss ratios are threatening the viability of insurers in 27 states, a result of adverse selection by relatively sick enrollees;
With unfavorable risk pools, premiums for all 2016 exchange-based plans are rising 20.3%, well above the 7.5% figure quoted by HHS for “Silver” plans;
Health insurance does not guarantee health care, and many of the newly insured are finding that providers are scarce, given reimbursement rates;
Emergency rooms utilization is up, as patients know they can get care there;
Rationing of care is increasingly a matter of waiting time, as it is in other countries that rely on non-market solutions to health care;
As many as 700,000 low-income enrollees are at risk of losing their coverage because they did not file tax returns;
For many, the penalty for not having coverage ($695 next year) is lower than the premium they would pay for coverage;
More than 5 million individuals lost their coverage under Obamacare, generally policies that were preferred over the new alternatives;
Poor incentives and burdensome provider requirements are pushing costs up.
Employers are attempting to minimize the cost of Obamacare. The law makes hiring more expensive and leads to substitution of part-time for full-time workers;

The “death spiral” might not be far-off for Obamacare. Here is Tanner’s assessment:

“The young and healthy simply haven’t signed up for Obamacare in the same numbers as those who are older and sicker. The only way for insurers to offset their skyrocketing [Medical Loss Ratios] is to hike premiums still further. … premiums in the worst states could have to rise by an average of 34 percent, and possibly as much as 52 percent. But premium hikes of that magnitude would almost certainly further discourage younger and healthier Americans from buying insurance.“

There is no question that Obamacare will have to be replaced or changed substantially. Unfortunately, Obamacare apologists simply can’t come to grips with the reality of the law’s failure. They would do well to start focusing on new solutions to the problems that Obamacare was intended to solve. To that end, the Mercatus Center commissioned a collection of seven essays on how best to deal with the problem of pre-existing conditions, now published on the Mercatus web site. Market-based solutions are needed to encourage competition among insurers, incentivize innovation and cost control, and reestablish the primacy of the patient-provider relationship.

Proof of Concept: School Choice vs. Failing Publics

09 Monday Nov 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Education, School Choice

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Administrative Costs, CATO Institute, Don Boudreaux, Monopoly Schools, Monopsonist Unions, Rural Education, School Choice, Show-Me Institute, Specialization, Teachers Unions, The Netherlands

The evidence that school choice is associated with better educational outcomes has been mounting. Given the poor performance of so many public schools, it is time to reject the “sanctity” of their monopoly privilege. The link above emphasizes the promise of choice as a reform for public schools in the U.S. (as do several other links below from the Show-Me Institute and elsewhere).

It is implausible to suggest that the opportunities afforded by choice could make things worse than public-school outcomes. Poorly-served students and families have too much to gain from broadening their educational options and they know it. A recent survey of African-American parents of school children found that more than 75% of the respondents were interested “in obtaining a voucher to cover the cost of private or parochial school tuition for [their] children“. A majority agreed that:

“… I should be able to enroll my child in the school I think will give my child the best educational opportunity. If my choice is a private or parochial school then I should be allowed to use the same tax dollars allotted to every child in public school to cover the cost of their tuition.“

Choice should not be viewed as a threat to the public school system, although that is a familiar narrative issued by school-choice opponents. In fact, it will create new opportunities for public schools to excel, taking advantage of the benefits of specialization that are well-known in most walks of life. Choice and competition will either reform or weed-out the worst-performing schools and will encourage a rationalization of the administrative bloat so characteristic of public institutions. That’s all to the good, but by weakening schools’ market power, choice will change the relationships between public schools and families. Apparently that is threatening to vested interests, which underscores the importance of reform.

The Netherlands has had a system of school vouchers in place for almost 100 years, and research indicates that it has been highly successful:

“Specifically, access to private schooling has helped Dutch students. A 2013 study reveal[ed] strong positive effects for students using the voucher program to attend private schools. The effects were anywhere between 0.2 and 0.3 standard deviations, which would move a student at the mean of the standard bell curve of student performance up 10 or so percentile points (from a 50 to a 60).

Given these large effects, it shouldn’t be surprising that in a system where two thirds of the schools are private, we see strong academic performance. What’s more, according to the National Center on Education Statistics, Dutch schools spend on average $1,500 less per student per year than American schools do.“

A recent study from the CATO Institute demonstrated the long-run impacts of school choice on several types of outcomes. Little wonder that choice is described as a “Moral and Financial Imperative” (video). School choice is also an option for providing better educations to students in rural areas, despite the worn-out argument that distances make it impossible. Under today’s archaic structure, course offerings at many rural schools are necessarily limited, but new technology and choice programs can allow those schools to specialize and give their local students broader access to educational resources.

Teacher’s unions have been consistent opponents of school choice. They view choice as a threat to their members’ job security and their own ability to negotiate favorable contract terms. Perhaps, but the goal of improving educational outcomes cannot be subjugated to the goals of union monopsonists. When it comes to education, the schools should focus on serving children and their parents, and parents in failing schools want the kind of solution choice can offer.

Several months ago, a post here on Sacred Cow Chips discussed an entertaining question posed by Don Boudreaux: What if supermarkets were like public schools? To quote Boudreaux directly:

“In the face of calls for supermarket choice, supermarket-workers unions would use their significant resources for lobbying—in favor of public-supermarkets’ monopoly power and against any suggestion that market forces are appropriate for delivering something as essential as groceries.“

Parental control is a critical change needed in our schools. Schools should never be placed in a position exceeding the authority of parents over their children, even if public funds are involved. Teachers and administrators of public schools must learn to treat parents like customers. The only way to assure that kind of responsiveness is to give parents a choice.

Child Quotas: Family as a Grant of Privilege

05 Thursday Nov 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Liberty, Tyranny

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Amartya Sen, Bret Stephens, Chinese Family Policy, Eugenics, Fertility rates, Liberalism, Limits to Growth, Nicholas Eberstadt, One Child Policy, Paul Erlich, Progressive Left, The Club of Rome, The Population Bomb, Wall Street Journal

How could any self-described liberal believe for a second that China’s “One Child Policy” was anything but repressive? By utterly failing to live up to liberalism! The policy was “reformed” last week after more than 35 years by a Beijing government trying to face up to the huge demographic and economic crisis posed by an aging population. But as Nicholas Eberstadt reports, now it is a “Two Child Policy“, which is less tyrannical only by degrees. (The link takes you to a Google search to bypass the WSJ paywall — choose the top result there.) Here are some of the awful consequences of the one-child policy noted by Eberstadt:

“First came alarming reports that female infanticide, an ancient practice, had once again erupted throughout the countryside. China’s 1982 census, released some years later, showed an unnatural imbalance in the sex ratio for birth-year 1981 on the order of hundreds of thousands of missing baby girls.

Infanticide was then replaced by mass sex-selective abortion, made possible in the late 1980s by increased rural access to ultrasound machines. China’s sex ratio climbed to nearly 120 baby boys for every 100 baby girls, where it plateaued around 2000. Although a war against baby girls is evident in other countries—India and Taiwan among them—leading Chinese demographers have suggested that half or more of China’s imbalance may directly result from the one-child policy.“

Bret Stephens discusses the support historically offered by the Left for the one-child policy. (This piece is also at wsj.com and it’s apparently a free link, but use Google if it doesn’t work.) Stephens rightly calls the policy “the ultimate assault on the human rights of women and girls.” He traces the Left’s penchant for central authority over family autonomy back to Paul Erlich’s “The Population Bomb” and the Club of Rome‘s discredited “Limits to Growth“, but it also descends from an earlier Leftist fascination with eugenics. The ideas live on today. Stephens notes the Malthusian connection to another great Lefist shibboleth, our purported climate change crisis:

“For much of the 20th century it was faith in History, especially in its Marxist interpretation. Now it’s faith in the environment. Each is a comprehensive belief system, an instruction sheet on how to live, eat and reproduce, a story of how man fell and how he might be redeemed, a tale of impending crisis that’s also a moral crucible.“

Amartya Sen asks whether the one-child policy really influenced fertility rates at all, but I question the reliability of the figures she cites. The high ratio of male to female births contributes to my suspicions. According to Eberstadt, a number of Chinese demographers have been warning against continuing the one-child policy for at least a decade. Other reports give the strong impression that it has been a binding constraint.

Economic growth provides a voluntary and effective brake on birth rates. The continuing agitation for restraints on economic growth to reduce carbon emissions short circuits this mechanism. Not only is the climate change “crisis” ill-founded, these measures hinder the development and diffusion of technologies that would be more efficient in reducing carbon discharge, instead imposing immediate remediation that is often uneconomic. The unimaginative solution offered by the progressive Left is central control over our progeny and our production of goods. Repression is always their best answer. That ain’t liberalism!

Wanna Help People? End the Drug War!

03 Tuesday Nov 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in War On Drugs

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Black Markets, Colorado Legalization, Colorado Pot Legalization, Drug Abuse, Drug Cartels, Gangland Violence, Individual Liberty, Jacob Sullum, Milton Friedman, Prohibition, Prostitution, Victimless Crimes, War on Drugs

We’re taught that illegal drugs are a scourge on humanity, that their use is immoral and that legalization is out of the question. Yet far more of us, our friends, and our loved ones have been intimate with the destructive effects of alcohol and dependency on legal drugs than on illegal drugs. Pharmacologically, the “worst effects” of illegal drugs are no worse than the well-known effects of alcohol abuse. In fact, the “worst effects” have more to do with prohibition than with the illegal drugs themselves.

Rules are codified into law successfully when widespread agreement exists among the citizenry that a rule is sensible. This should trouble drug prohibitionists: a substantial proportion of the population has used illegal drugs as adults, indicating a strong lack of consensus that recreational drugs should be illegal. For this reason alone, drug prohibition is and always will be ineffectual.

The great economist Milton Friedman was a long-time critic of the drug war. Several of his articles on the topic are linked at this site. One of the links is this interview from 1992, which is lengthy but sticks primarily to the issue of the drug war. I’m not sure that all of the facts Friedman cites have held up over time, especially with respect to trends in alcohol consumption. Nevertheless, it is a great interview:

“There are [sic] an enormous number of innocent victims now. You’ve got the people whose purses are stolen, who are bashed over the head by people trying to get enough money for their next fix. You’ve got the people killed in the random drug wars. You’ve got the corruption of the legal establishment. You’ve got the innocent victims who are taxpayers who have to pay for more and more prisons, and more and more prisoners, and more and more police. You’ve got the rest of us who don’t get decent law enforcement because all the law enforcement officials are busy trying to do the impossible.“

Here is a brief list of the pernicious effects of drug prohibition:

Prices are driven upward by the legal risk inherent in black market trade;
High prices lead to more crime as heavy users seek means of payment;
Impure and more dangerous variants are traded in attempts to stretch quantities and increase potency;
Dealers advance “samples” to gain trust and cultivate dependency among users;
Addiction is stubbornly resistant to legal barriers;
Unnecessary deaths from impure and excessively potent drug varieties;
Black market trade leads to violent crime as underworld elements seek to control markets and enforce discipline in their organizations;
Unnecessary deaths from gangland violence;
Arrest, imprisonment and ruined lives for victimless crimes;
A huge burden on taxpayers;
A huge burden on the criminal justice system;
Inevitable corruption in law enforcement as officials face hefty rewards for protecting the drug trade;
Innocent people become casualties of violence instigated by gangs and sometimes by police actions.

A fascinating dynamic of the black market in drugs is the tendency toward monopolization at the top: Large cartels dominate the importation of supplies due to the risk and expense of such operations. As Friedman noted, the war on drugs contributes to the difficulty of entering into competition with established players. At the same time, the drug war guarantees huge rewards to the cartels by inflating drug prices:

“What more could a monopolist want? He’s got a government who makes it very hard for all his competitors and who keeps the price of his products high.“

The drug war creates greater danger for users. In “Prohibition Kills“, Jacob Sullum discusses four recent examples of more dangerous and even deadly drug variants that have been developed as a direct consequence of prohibition. Friedman is often quoted as saying that crack cocaine was a direct consequence of the drug war. Sullum asks whether this could be an intentional strategy by drug warriors for discouraging consumption. I’m not convinced they are quite so nefarious, but it’s something to ponder.

More dangerous varieties of drugs would not vanish overnight if drugs were legalized, though the incentive to develop them would diminish. Of course, if legalization brings prices and risks down, as we’d expect, it would encourage greater recreational use. That should not be viewed as a “bad” any more than better access to cocktails at happy hour. Abuse is unlikely to increase because problem users tend to be undeterred by prohibition. And as unsavory as an increase in recreational drug use might seem to the temperance faction, it would still represent only a small fraction of the real costs of ruined lives imposed by prohibition and the drug war.

Legalization would bring other complexities, as Colorado’s experience with marijuana shows. For example, rules with respect to driving under the influence must be updated, as well as laws prohibiting possession by minors. Colorado went so far as to regulate packaging, and tax treatment of the drug trade will stoke debate, as governments will hope for something of a tax bonanza. But the more that government attempts to regulate and tax drugs, the more that problems similar to those associated with drug prohibition will persist, albeit on a smaller scale.

Economically, legalization should eliminate a burden on taxpayers. It would free up law enforcement resources to battle real crime and should make more funds available for treatment programs. It would also help to improve lives and safety in inner cities and other areas ravaged by black market drug trade and the violence it foments. And of course, legalization would put an end to the ruin of lives caused by the arrest of individuals for victimless crimes.

Prohibition of drugs belongs to a larger class of social problems brought on by efforts to bring the police power of government to bear on private behavior. I already mentioned that alcohol prohibition had similar consequences. To lesser degrees, similar harmful consequences are associated with laws against prostitution, large soft drink containers, sugary foods, and practicing almost any commercial art without a license. The same can be said for price regulations like rent control and the minimum wage. The former has led to the destruction of vast quantities of housing; the latter harms low-skilled workers along non-wage dimensions and makes it difficult for unskilled workers to gain valuable experience in the job market. Government interference with individual liberty might well restrain certain activities deemed “undesirable” by busybodies, but it it also leads to higher prices, greater risk, black market activity, violence, unnecessary legal actions against individuals, and greater expense for society.

Universal Pre-K Dumb-Down

30 Friday Oct 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Education, Welfare State

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Bernie Sanders, Child Development, Cradle to Grave Socialism, Ezra Klein, Federal funding, Fertility Decisions, Head Start, Hillary Clinton, Negative Incentives, Pre-Kindergarten Education, Pre-School For All, Socialization, Subsidies, Tennessee Pre-K Study, Universal Pre-K, Vox, Welfare State

Can the middle class be sold on federal pre-kindergarten dependency? Is pre-K always beneficial to children? All children? One of many issues agitating the “government-must-do-something” crowd is universal pre-kindergarten. It’s a favorite topic of the Socialist-Democrat Bernie Sanders and, more recently, it became a campaign promise from the Democrat-Socialist Hillary Clinton. It’s typical of the freebies these two presidential candidates are compelled to promise their base. While federal funding of universal pre-K is often billed as way to assist low-income working families, the subsidies proposed are not well-targeted: Clinton’s proposal calls for pre-K subsidies for middle-class families as well. A “Pre-School For All” proposal by President Obama in 2013 required $75 billion in funding. These kinds of broad-based transfer payments aren’t cheap.

In addition to the expense, it’s not clear that pre-K schooling is beneficial to all children. In Vox, Ezra Klein describes a recent study on the efficacy of a pre-K program in Tennessee (hat tip: John Crawford). The selection of children for the pre-K and control groups was randomized by virtue of a “lottery” for admission in regions experiencing excess demand. Here is Klein’s description of the results:

“At the end of pre-K, the results look pretty much as you would expect: Teachers rates [sic] the children who went through pre-K as ‘being better prepared for kindergarten work, as having better behaviors related to learning in the classroom and as having more positive peer relations.’

The problem is those results dissipate by the end of kindergarten — by then, the group that attended pre-K is no better off than the group that didn’t — and then begin to reverse by the end of first grade. By the end of second grade, the children who attended the pre-K program are scoring lower on both behavioral and academic measures than the children who didn’t.“

Klein cites two other “high-quality” studies (one by Head Start) that are consistent with the findings in Tennessee. He also notes some weaknesses of earlier studies suggesting that pre-K provides developmental benefits.

Some prominent advocates of pre-K insist that there are long-term benefits that the recent studies fail to capture. If so, it is hard to square that belief with such negative results after three years. I suspect that there are significant developmental rewards for children who spend their days with family members or even family friends, and I am skeptical that improved socialization can be gained from full-time attendance at a public facility. Perhaps some children benefit, but clearly not all.

None of this is to suggest that low-income parents would not benefit economically from additional subsidies for early education. To the extent that the parents are able to earn more income, the entire household will benefit and perhaps even society will benefit. But this is a social safety net issue at its base, not a broad-based social need. Ideally, one’s prospects for income should have a strong bearing on fertility decisions. Individual families should not expect others to bear the costs. And as for the safety net, let’s face it, great parts of it would be unnecessary in the absence of the negative work and family incentives inherent in many transfer programs. Neutralizing the costs of raising children compounds the bad incentives.

Like so many other statist misadventures, the populist appeal of universal pre-K is a desire for a freebie at the expense of others. The politicians Sanders, Clinton and Obama understand that, and they recognize it as another pillar of support for the great federal highway of cradle-to-grave serfdom.

European Incomes Compare Favorably To Mississippi Delta

29 Thursday Oct 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Europe, Social Democracy

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

European economic growth, Euroscerosis, Income comparisons, Median Income, Mises Wire, Mississippi Delta, OECD, Social Democracy, State purchasing power

Europe is no utopia, not even Scandanavia, contrary to the fictional accounts of the American Left. Much of Europe is actually rather pinched by U.S. standards. This link from Mises Wire shows that median incomes in Sweden and Germany would place those countries among the poorest U.S. states. The comparisons at the link are based on OECD data from 2012. Here are some examples in terms of median income:

The U.K. is poorer than any U.S. state (Mississippi is at the bottom in the U.S.);
Sweden is poorer than all but 12 states;
Denmark is below all but 13 US states;
Germany is below all but 9 US states, and France is below Germany;
Only Luxembourg, Norway, and Switzerland would rank as high-income states, were they part of the U.S.

The results are even more striking after adjusting for purchasing power across individual states in the U.S.:

“… we find that Sweden’s median income ($27,167) is higher than only six states: Arkansas ($26,804), Louisiana ($25,643), Mississippi ($26,517), New Mexico ($26,762), New York ($26,152) and North Carolina ($26,819).

We find something similar when we look at Germany, but in Germany’s case, every single US state shows a higher median income than Germany. Germany’s median income is $25,528. Things look even worse for the United Kingdom which has a median income of $21,033, compared to $26,517 in Mississippi.“

Again, Luxembourg is the standout. It would rank as the second highest state in terms of real median disposable income, were it part of the U.S.

Europe certainly has its charms, not to mention its share of old wealth, but the contention that it is more “advanced” economically than the U.S. is laughable. This is not a new development, and economic growth in Europe has been dismal (and negative in a number of countries) over the past eight years. The notion that the socialist democrats of Europe have created a prosperity that the U.S. should envy is a myth.

Government Economy; Government Science: You Wanted Growth?

28 Wednesday Oct 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Central Planning, Regulation, Technology

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Basic Science, economic growth, Innovation, John Cochrane, Matt Ridley, Productivity Growth, Public Funding of Science, regulation, Technological advance

Economic growth allows us to enjoy an improving material existence and the wealth to pursue other goals as a society, such as a clean environment. Yet we often pursue other goals in ways that strangle growth, when in fact those goals and growth are fundamentally compatible.

Two articles that caught my attention today approach this issue from different but complementary perspectives. One is by John Cochrane of the University of Chicago, a lengthy piece called simply “Economic Growth“. At the outset, Cochrane asserts that the one, ultimate source of economic growth in the long-run is through advancing productivity. He notes, however, that the U.S. has been falling short in that department of late. Re-establishing growth should start with a clean-up of the many harmful public policies that have cluttered the economic landscape, especially over the last few decades. Unfortunately, politics makes this easier said than done:

“The golden rule of economic policy is: Do not transfer incomes by distorting prices or slowing competition and innovation. The golden rule of political economics seems to be: Transfer incomes by distorting prices and regulating away competition. Doing so attracts a lot less attention than on-budget transfers or subsidies. It takes great political leadership to force the political process to obey the economic rule.“

Cochrane’s discussion is wide ranging, covering a number of areas of public policy that require “weeding”, as he puts it: the regulatory arena (finance, health care, energy and the environment), tax policy, debt and deficits, the design of social programs and entitlements, labor law and regulation, immigration, education, agricultural policy, trade, and the process of infrastructure investment. There may be a year’s worth of blog posts to be drawn from Cochrane’s essay, but I think “weeding” understates the difficulty of the tasks outlined by Cochrane to reignite growth.

The second article that interested me today dealt with technological advance, which is a primary driver of productivity growth. Economists and pundits often prescribe policies that they believe will lead to transformational breakthroughs in technology. This usually manifests in advocacy for increased public funding for basic scientific research. This is a mistake, according to Matt Ridley’s great article, “The Myth of Basic Science“. In fact, one might say that he’s identified another government-nourished weed for Cochrane to pull. I found Ridley’s opening paragraph intriguing:

“Innovation is a mysteriously difficult thing to dictate. Technology seems to change by a sort of inexorable, evolutionary progress, which we probably cannot stop—or speed up much either. And it’s not much the product of science. Most technological breakthroughs come from technologists tinkering, not from researchers chasing hypotheses. Heretical as it may sound, “basic science” isn’t nearly as productive of new inventions as we tend to think.“

Ridley’s thesis (actually, he credits several others for formulating this line of thinking) is that technology growth is very much an independent process, impossible to push or steer effectively. He goes so far as to say that it can’t be stopped, but he also cites ways in which it can be inhibited.

This perspective on technology has implications for patent law, a subject that Ridley explores to some extent. It also reflects badly on government efforts to direct and stimulate advances by granting subsidies to favored technologies and more aggressive funding of “basic science”. Government, in Ridley’s view, is largely impotent in spawning technological advance. By pushing technologies that are uneconomic, government distorts price signals, diverts resources from more productive investments, and embeds inferior technologies in the economy’s productive capital base.

But Ridley’s point has more to do with the futility of basic science as a driver of technological advance, and the strong possibility that causation often runs in the other direction:

“It is no accident that astronomy blossomed in the wake of the age of exploration. The steam engine owed almost nothing to the science of thermodynamics, but the science of thermodynamics owed almost everything to the steam engine. The discovery of the structure of DNA depended heavily on X-ray crystallography of biological molecules, a technique developed in the wool industry to try to improve textiles.

Technological advances are driven by practical men who tinkered until they had better machines; abstract scientific rumination is the last thing they do. As Adam Smith, looking around the factories of 18th-century Scotland, reported in ‘The Wealth of Nations’: ‘A great part of the machines made use in manufactures…were originally the inventions of common workmen,’ and many improvements had been made ‘by the ingenuity of the makers of the machines.’

It follows that there is less need for government to fund science: Industry will do this itself. Having made innovations, it will then pay for research into the principles behind them. Having invented the steam engine, it will pay for thermodynamics. This conclusion … is so heretical as to be incomprehensible to most economists, to say nothing of scientists themselves.“

It’s good to qualify that “industry will do this itself” only if it isn’t severely hamstrung by meddling politicians and regulators.

Ridley goes on to cite a few inconvenient historical facts that run counter to the narrative that public funding of science is a necessary condition for technical advance. He also cites empirical work suggesting that the return on publicly-funded R&D is paltry. In fact, he allows that government involvement in “basic science” may inhibit more economically viable advances and their adoption. There is no question that government often chooses unwisely without the discipline of market incentives. If it gets funded, then bad science, politically-driven “science” and ultimately nonproductive science might very well crowd-out better private science and innovation.

In a time of strained government budgets, public funding for basic science should be subjected to as much scrutiny as any other spending category. Like Ridley, I have much more faith in private tinkerers to choose wisely when it comes to the development of new technologies. Intimacy with actual markets and with the production process itself improve the odds that private developers and technologists will be more effective at boosting productivity.

Without Reform, Social Security Is a Game of Chance

25 Sunday Oct 2015

Posted by Nuetzel in Social Security

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Congressional Budget Office, Cost of Living Adjustments, Intergenerational Transfers, Internal Rates of Return, Michael Tanner, Pay-As-You-Go, Social Security, Social Security Privatization, Social Security Trust Fund, Tax Policy Center, The Urban Institute

Social Security does not provide future retirees with a safe “return” on taxes paid into the system on their behalf, given the program’s funding problems. It’s not even clear that it provides a decent return to many current retirees, and it will get worse as younger age cohorts become eligible. Demographic changes worked in the system’s favor in its early years, but no more: the number of eligible retirees is growing faster than the working-age population. This has led to cash flow deficits since 2010 that will widen in the years ahead. The unfunded liabilities of the system are currently estimated to be $26 trillion. The so-called “Trust Fund” for retirement holds about about $2.8 trillion of government securities, but those can’t be “cashed out” without a raid on general tax revenue or new borrowing by the Treasury.

Michael Tanner reveals the absurdity of some of the myths surrounding SS, such as claims that there is “no crisis” (and even more absurdly, that benefits should be expanded), that the Trust Fund will “save” the system, and that SS payroll taxes are “saved” for retirees. They are not saved; it is a “pay-as-you-go” system with current payroll tax collections paid out to today’s retirees. Here is Tanner on the woeful state of the system’s finances:

“According to projections by the Congressional Budget Office, for workers born in the 1980s, there are only enough funds to pay 76 percent of their schedule benefits; for today’s children born in the 2000s, this falls to 69 percent. And, taxes are already so high relative to benefits that young people will receive far less than they could receive if they invested their taxes privately.“

Measuring the return on Social Security (SS) payroll taxes (otherwise known as FICA) is not without controversy. The Social Security Administration (SSA) performs its own analyses of the returns on payroll taxes periodically. They analyze individuals at different income levels for each of four circumstances: single men, single women, one-earner couples and two-earner couples. They do so under different scenarios about future payroll taxes and benefits. The benefits include cost-of-living adjustments. These calculations show that today’s younger workers, singles and high-income workers can expect to receive the lowest returns. According to the most recent report, from December 2014, annual rates of return for those not yet drawing benefits under present law varies from less than 1% to 6.5%. Of course, the promised benefits are not sustainable under present law.

Reforms are not optional, as the program cannot run a deficit under its current authority once the Trust Fund is exhausted. SSA attempts to analyze steps that might close the gap and the impact of those changes on returns to retirees. One scenario involves higher payroll taxes and another lower benefits. These changes reduce the calculated returns in all cases, though even the lowest returns remain positive, if barely. These alternative scenarios involve no changes until 2033, however.

At the time of the SSA report, the most recent Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicted that the SS Trust Fund would be exhausted in 2033. More recently, the CBO predicted that the fund will run dry in 2029. (The Disability Trust Fund is projected to run dry in 2017.) Therefore, the returns calculated by SSA under the alternative scenarios are over-estimates, since more drastic and earlier measures are required to restore balance. It’s likely that some of those returns would turn negative using SSA’s methodology. And it’s not unreasonable to suggest that reforms, whatever shape they might take, should be implemented sooner than 2029. After all, the need for reforms is well known, and we’re talking about it now! As for the SSA’s alternative scenarios, changes much sooner than 2033 would cause even lower returns.

While the SSA’s effort to provide the estimates is laudable, there are several aspects of the methodology that are questionable. SSA claims that the returns are real (inflation-adjusted) internal rates of return (IRRs), but they do not offer a detailed explanation of the inflation adjustment that must take place after calculating the nominal IRR. Using projected cost-of-living increases to inflate future benefits does not make the calculated IRRs “real”, if that’s what they have in mind. Second, the cost-of-living adjuster is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners, which underestimates inflation experienced by the elderly. Third, they do not attempt to account for the probability of death before retirement, which would obviously reduce the return on contributions for single earners.

The “present-law” returns are essentially irrelevant, given the unfunded projected benefits. But the calculations under the alternative scenarios fail on other grounds: they are not “dynamic” in terms of adjusting for the economic impacts of the policy changes. In particular, higher payroll taxes are likely to reduce employment and slow the economy. A slowdown might even lead to additional claims on the system from earlier-than expected retirements. Thus, the higher payroll tax rates used by SSA will not be sufficient to close the gap. Likewise, reduced benefits would have a negative impact on the economy, reducing payroll tax collections. In both cases, dynamic economic effects would cause a wider funding gap; closing it will reduce returns more than suggested by SSA’s calculations.

An analysis by the Urban Institute in 2012 made somewhat arbitrary assumptions about rates of return. They used a 2% real rate of return to compound past contributions and discount future benefits (presumably with no cost-of-living adjustment). Under their assumptions, the value of payroll tax contributions at retirement often exceeds the discounted value of SS benefits for age cohorts turning 65 in 2010 and 2030. That implies that the real IRR must be lower than 2%.

As a hypothetical exercise, if individuals could invest their own payroll contributions over their working lives, significantly better returns could be earned than the IRRs discussed above, even if workers were forced into low-risk investments as they approach retirement. Therefore, the implied value of payroll contributions at retirement inherent in the IRR calculations is far too low. And while the discounting of retirement benefits at a relatively low rate reflects an appropriate conservatism, the level of SS benefits would not be competitive with the dollar returns on safe investments funded by a larger pot at retirement. The IRR calculations show only that the SS program is about as good as stuffing money into a mattress.

Unfortunately, the mattress might burn. The risks inherent in future SS benefits are substantial, and none of the reform alternatives are very popular. Some of the opposition is rooted in unreasonable criticism: No one has suggested programatic changes that would affect the benefits of anyone over the age of 55. Still, cuts in benefits for future retirees, delayed eligibility and higher payroll taxes are not easy sells. Another solution is to phase out the pay-as-you-go system, allowing younger workers the option of a a self-directed account (subject to certain restrictions), including a discounted “cash value” credit as a buyout for previous contributions. This was discussed in a recent post on Sacred Cow Chips.

Social Security is unsustainable and is an inter-generational rip-off in its current, pay-as-you-go form, as younger, less affluent workers subsidize current retirees, who are relatively wealthy as a class. Rather than shutting-down debate over reforms with exaggerated political claims, those interested in assuring a viable public retirement program should consider proposals that would give workers more choice and control, taking advantage of the higher returns available on private investments. Only this type of program can take advantage of the economy’s ability to convert savings into productive investment and real growth. Simple transfers from young to old do not leverage this process, and can never hope to compete with it.