Tag Archives: regulation

Precaution Forbids Your Rewards

19 Thursday Feb 2015

Posted by in Regulation

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The precautionary principle (PP) is often used to justify actions that radically infringe on liberty, but it is an unreliable guide to managing risk, both for society and for individuals. Warren Meyer makes this point forcefully in a recent post entitled “A Unified Theory of Poor Risk Management“. The whole post is worth reading, but PP is the focus of second section. Meyer offers the following definition of the PP from Wikipedia:

“The precautionary principle or precautionary approach to risk management states that if an action or policy has a suspected risk of causing harm to the public or to the environment, in the absence of scientific consensus that the action or policy is not harmful, the burden of proof that it is not harmful falls on those taking an action.”

He goes on to explain several problems with PP, the most important of which is its one-sided emphasis on the risks of an activity while dismissing prospective benefits of any kind. Enough said! That shortcoming immediately disqualifies PP as a guide to action. Rather, it justifies  compulsion to not act, which is usually the desired outcome when PP is invoked. We are told to stop burning fossil fuels because CO2 emissions might lead to catastrophic global warming. Yet burning fossil fuels brings enormous benefits to humanity, including real environmental benefits. We are told to stop the cultivation of GMOs because of perceived risks, yet the potential benefits of GMOs are routinely ignored, such as higher yields, improved nutrition, drought resistance and reduced environmental damage. Meyer asks whether there is an irony in ignoring these potential gains, as it entails an acceptance of certain risks. Forced energy shortages would bring widespread economic decline. Less-developed countries face risks of continuing poverty and malnutrition that could otherwise be mitigated.

The terrifying risks cited by PP adherents are generally not well-founded. For example, climate models based on CO2 forcings have extremely poor track records. And whether such hypothetical warming would be costly or beneficial, on balance, is open to debate. The supposed risks of GMOs are largely based on pseudoscience and ignore a vast body of evidence of their safety. As Meyer says:

“… the principle is inherently anti-progress. The proposition requires that folks who want to introduce new innovations must prove a negative, and it is very hard to prove a negative — how do I prove there are no invisible aliens in my closet who may come out and eat me someday, and how can I possibly get a scientific consensus to this fact? As a result, by merely expressing that one ‘suspects’ a risk (note there is no need listed for proof or justification of this suspicion), any advance may be stopped cold. Had we followed such a principle consistently, we would still all be subsistence farmers, vassals to our feudal lord.”

The PP has obvious appeal to statists and fits comfortably into the philosophy of the regulatory state. But it’s a reasonable conjecture that widespread application of the PP exposes the world to greater natural and economic risks than without the PP. Under laissez-faire capitalism, human action is guided by the rational balancing of benefits against costs and risks, which has brought prosperity everywhere it’s been practiced.

Can Federal Regulation Enrich Your Web? What?

05 Thursday Feb 2015

Posted by in Net neutrality

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Do you really believe that government regulation of the internet will keep it “open”, fast and innovative? Really? Then you will be happy with today’s FCC decision to reclassify broadband internet service providers (ISPs) as “common carriers.” (The link above will take you to a Google search page with another link to “Washington Conquers the Internet“.) This puts the ISPs on the same regulatory footing as land-line and wireless voice services. The FCC’s action is a legal move that will pave the way for regulation of rates and service rules with the supposed aim of “net neutrality”.

The FCC chairman, Tom Wheeler, has recently argued that because the wireless carriers have enjoyed tremendous growth under the common carrier rules, there is no reason to fear that the broadband industry would suffer under the reclassification. However, as Peter Suderman explains, the common carrier rules applied only to wireless voice services, not to rapidly growing wireless data services. Wheeler’s argument is therefore misleading:

“... it suggests that Wheeler wants to pursue reclassification not because the wireless sector has been successful under Title II, but because of the service that has been successful without it.”

The FCC would almost assuredly reclassify wireless data as well as broadband as common carrier services.

Net neutrality is a misnomer, as Sacred Cow Chips has noted in the past here, here, and here. These posts cover shortcomings of so-called net neutrality such as mis-pricing of services, subverting incentives for network maintenance and growth, massive non-neutral subsidies for network hogs, the potential threat to free speech, and a negative impact on the poor. Warren Meyer at Coyote Blog expresses his dismay at the utter naivete of those who think that “net neutrality” sounds appealing:

“Here is my official notice — you have been warned, time and again. There will be no allowing future statements of “I didn’t mean that” or “I didn’t expect that” or “that’s not what I intended.” There is no saying that you only wanted this one little change, that you didn’t buy into all the other mess that is coming. You let the regulatory camel’s nose in the tent and the entire camel is coming inside. I guarantee it.”

Today’s FCC decision will also expose unsuspecting internet users to federal and local fees and taxes averaging about $49 per year. According to this calculation, that’s an increase in average broadband cost of about 9%. I believe that the estimate of the negative impact on subscribership given at the link is mistaken and too large (even in the update at the bottom), but there will certainly be a negative impact that could run into the millions of subscribers.

Finally, there is little doubt that FCC Chairman Wheeler felt strong pressure from the White House (another link at a Google search page) to reclassify ISPs as common carriers. President Obama is one of those souls who find “net neutrality” appealing, but I’m cynical enough to think that he merely finds the politics of “net neutrality” appealing. Big government can’t wait to control your “open internet”.

Postscript: This video is a lighthearted take on what the FCC is getting us into.

Obamacare’s Medical Road To Serfdom

03 Tuesday Feb 2015

Posted by in Government, Obamacare, Regulation, The Road To Serfdom

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The arrogance and shortsightedness of regulators and central planners is often astonishing and sometimes worthy of disgust. Here is a case of the latter, and it is one of the most damning things I have read about Obamacare, and that takes some doing.

Dr. Kristin Held is a physician who gained some notoriety last year when she live-tweeted a professional conference as ophthalmologists walked-out on a presentation about implementing and complying with Obamacare. More recently, she has written about the health care law’s perverse incentives for physicians. It is an excellent piece about a sickening effort at medical central planning by the government. Please read it!

What good can be said of a law that discourages physicians from performing procedures that would be of great benefit to most patients with a particular health issue; discourages physicians from tackling the more complex cases; encourages them to prolong an operation, having made the decision to operate. The standards by which outcomes are judged successful under Obamacare, and other rules governing remuneration to providers (Relative Value Units), represent crippling impediments to effective care and innovation in many areas of specialization. Here is part of Dr. Held’s summary:

“Consider again the perverse incentives created by government medicine. If I take a really long time operating — even though it subjects the patient to greater risk — and if I pick and choose who I will operate on, refusing the sickest, neediest patients, I am rated more highly by the government’s published “physician feedback” reports and hospital “performance scores” — and paid commensurately. If, on the other hand, I am skilled and quick and tackle the sickest, most challenging cases, subjecting me and my family to great risk, I am paid less or nothing and potentially punished. ”

HT: Dr. John Probst

Strangling By Stimulus

01 Sunday Feb 2015

Posted by in Government

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Will more government spending fix a weak economy? That is certainly a common refrain heard from economists and other pundits, including prominent members of the private business community. The historical record suggests otherwise, however, and there are practical reasons to doubt the efficacy of this sort of “fiscal stimulus.” Some of these are explored in “‘Timely, Targeted and Temporary?’ An Analysis of Government Expansions Over the Past Century“, from the Mercatus Center. In particular, countercyclical spending efforts have violated the “three Ts” often said to be required for successful demand-side policies. These efforts have been systematically late, badly targeted, and have resulted in permanent expansions in the resources absorbed by the government sector.

“Fiscal stimulus efforts going back to the 1930s consistently fail to meet the three Ts objective:

  • Improper timing. Policymakers have consistently struggled to properly time fiscal stimulus spending. In every postwar recession in the 20th century where stimulus spending was attempted, government spending peaked well after the economy was already in recovery. Policy lags—recognition, decision-making, implementation, and impact—are largely responsible for this fact.
  • Inefficient targeting. Going back to the New Deal, policymakers have targeted stimulus funds on the basis of politics rather than what delivers the most bang for the taxpayer buck. Further, individual policymakers cannot possess all the collective knowledge required to allocate and direct economic resources in the most efficient and effective manner, as markets do.
  • Permanent expansion of government. Stimulus funding has almost always led to permanent expansion in the size and scope of government. Indeed, the alleged need for immediate stimulus opens the door for expansions in government that might not have occurred under normal circumstances. On the rare occasions that the increased spending has been temporary, the costs have generally outweighed the benefits.“

As for inefficient targeting, I often hear that our nation’s infrastructural needs clinch the argument for stimulus spending. But those needs should be the focus of long-term planning and addressed on a continuing basis, not in bursts dictated by the state of the business cycle. Good projects should not be neglected in good times or bad, and there is no justification for undertaking a project if is not worthwhile on its merits. If increased spending can stabilize a weak economy, government should simply do something it does well: write checks. Who does infrastructure spending  help in those bad times? It certainly fails to address the basic human needs left unmet in a weak economic environment; it may or may not add high-paying construction jobs. (An aside: in the last recession, the stimulus program didn’t so much add construction jobs as it did accelerate certain “shovel-ready” projects.)

Proponents of government stimulus always have a culprit in mind for the economy’s ills: weak demand or under-consumption. They say government can lead the way out with more spending. This post on Sacred Cow Chips, “Keynesian Bull Chips“, disputes this point of view and provides some links on the topic, including this post by John Cochrane that is now ungated on his blog. Stimulus efforts are usually billed as temporary but rarely are. The expanded budgets always seem to remain expanded, and government absorbs an increasing share of the nation’s spending. Meanwhile, the value of government’s contribution to output is overstated, since most of the output is not subject to a market test or valuation.

The growth of government increasingly burdens private sector. Apart from tax distortions, the resources available to the private sector are gradually crowded and squeezed by the growth of public spending. Private investment is curtailed as government deficits absorb a growing share of private saving. Increasingly detailed regulation diminishes the private sector’s productivity. Robert Higgs at the Mises Institute asks: “How Much Longer Can the U.S. Economy Bear the Burdens?” That’s a very good question.

The opposite of expansionary fiscal policy is fiscal austerity: lower spending, and lower deficits. The budget sequester, originally passed in 2011, is a good example. Keynesians typically contend that austerity will weaken the economy, but the evidence often suggests the contrary. Here is a Scott Sumner post on that point. For robust economic growth, cut spending broadly, cut taxes, and deregulate.

Statists Make a Mess of Markets

20 Tuesday Jan 2015

Posted by in Markets, Regulation

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Government is not well suited to regulate markets in many respects. In the first place, regulation is never absent from free markets: consumers, competitors, technology and all factors of production such as labor ultimately represent a network of forces that regulate market outcomes. The power of market self-regulation, and the often destructive results of government regulation, are discussed by Howard Baejter in “There is No Such Thing as an Unregulated Market“. Beyond the efficiency with which markets direct resources, Baejter notes that markets regulate the quality and pricing of goods and services. Mark Perry reviews Baejter’s post approvingly and adds some thoughts of his own:

“… the ruthless consumer-regulators also waste no time praising, endorsing and recommending the products, restaurants, movies, services, sellers, contractors and businesses they like, both by supporting them with plenty of their regulatory certificates of approval (dollars), and by giving them positive, sometimes even glowing reviews on Amazon, Yelp, Rotten Tomatoes, eBay, Angie’s List, Uber, etc….”

Baejter’s concluding section covers some ways in which government regulation short-circuits healthy market regulation. Regulatory actions not only impose significant compliance costs, but they often have the effect of suspending market price signals and hampering voluntary adjustments to change that would otherwise lead to improved welfare. Furthermore, regulated firms are often successful in “capturing” regulators, enabling the most powerful players in an industry to manipulate and obtain regulatory treatment that blunts competition. As Baetjer says:

“… government regulation often “crowds out” regulation by market forces and consumer-regulators, and markets therefore operate less efficiently because the interests of the producers take priority over the interests of consumers…”

The Mises Daily ran a post in early January by Patrick Barron in which he elaborates on the truism that peaceful, voluntary exchange necessarily improves well-being relative to third-party interference. Such interference may take the form of forced exchanges, rules, mandates, price controls, or distortions from taxation. A recent post on Sacred Cow Chips, “The State and the Invisible Future Lost“,  emphasized the sacrifice of human well-being brought on by over-regulation. From that post:

“Our society routinely destroys economic opportunities as a matter of policy. This includes immediate discouragement of economic activity via tax disincentives and regulatory obstacles as well as lost capital investment and innovation. And it includes actions that grant protected status for monopolists, a steady by-product of the regulatory state.“

The State and The Invisible Future Lost

14 Sunday Dec 2014

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Lost opportunities can have far reaching consequences. Our society routinely destroys economic opportunities as a matter of policy. This includes immediate discouragement of economic activity via tax disincentives and regulatory obstacles as well as lost capital investment and innovation.  And it includes actions that grant protected status for monopolists, a steady by-product of the regulatory state. Don Boudreaux at Cafe Hayek posts a letter from a reader and his own thoughts on these points. From the letter:

“California has 3,754 wineries and they provide good wines for customers, jobs for employees, profits for owners, and fun places to visit. Imagine if Prohibition had never ended or if regulations were such that a mere five wineries produced all the wine for the entire country. Who would have known what we would have been missing?”

The damage of such policies goes on and on, and the negative effects compound with the passage of time. But those effects are seldom visible when policies are made. We never observe the bounty of the counterfactual when a new plant or shop isn’t built, a new shift isn’t added, a new company isn’t formed, a price increase isn’t discouraged by competition, or when inventions and discoveries aren’t made. From Boudreaux:

“The unseen includes also, and more importantly, the greater and better and completely different goods and services, the newer and safer and less-resource-intensive ways of production, and the more full prospects for human flourishing and the heightened hopes and the improved and expanded life-style options that human creativity – unleashed by free markets and governed by open competition and private property rights – makes possible.”

Technology and the advance of knowledge is a process that builds upon itself. The achievements of recent decades were impossible for us to have imagined beforehand, but much more might have been possible. Looking forward, the opportunities lost to today’s stultifying policies will become more staggering as the decades pass, losses much greater than we can imagine today.

The Non-Neutrality of Network Hogs

11 Tuesday Nov 2014

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President Obama wants to regulate your internet. Today, he encouraged the FCC to adopt rules requiring “net neutrality,” ostensibly rules that would keep the internet “free, open and fair,” as a common jingo asserts. Here’s a six-minute interview of Thomas Hazlett that gets to the heart of the problem: the FCC does not know how to impose a central plan on internet services. Nick Gillespie, who conducted the interview with Hazlett, says:

“There are specific interests who are doing well by the current system—Netflix, for instance—and they want to maintain the status quo. That’s understandable but the idea that the government will do a good job of regulating the Internet (whether by blanket decrees or on a case-by-case basis) is unconvincing, to say the least. The most likely outcome is that regulators will freeze in place today’s business models, thereby slowing innovation and change.”

I posted on the subject of net neutrality a few months ago. Gosh, I just hate to quote myself, but here’s a brief slice:

“Internet capacity is not like the air we breath. Providing network capacity is costly, and existing capacity must be allocated. Like any other scarce resource, a freely-functioning price mechanism is the most effective way to maximize the welfare surplus to be gained from this resource. Net neutrality would eliminate that solution.”

Of course, “net neutrality” is a misnomer. It is hardly a “neutral” situation when big users of internet capacity can soak up all they want, having paid for a plan with a certain download speed. 30 mgs per second is one thing, and that is typically how ISPs price their services (by speed). But that speed, for a large number of movie downloads (for example), can absorb lots of capacity, leaving that much less for other users. Again, that is not neutral in its effect across users. In fact, it is a classic tragedy of the commons: the under-priced resource is over-consumed, and there is little incentive to expand capacity, as the rewards flow to the over-consumers. Is that fair in any sense?

Advocates of net neutrality often contend that ISPs have an interest in limiting network capacity in order to extract monopoly rents from users. Under conditions of rapidly growing demand and competition for end users, that hardly seems plausible. A limited network is a liability under those conditions, so this rationale for net neutrality rules is completely misplaced.

“Credit” On Nanny’s Terms

19 Sunday Oct 2014

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Senator Elizabeth Warren would have you believe that buying on layaway is a wonderful deal. In “Layaway: Live After Death” in The Freeman, the authors discuss the horrible economics of layaway, Warren’s predilection for the practice, and the reason why it has risen from the dead.

First, the economics: these programs allow consumers to defer possession but “keep the dream alive” for a limited time, for a small down payment, which might be forfeited if the balance isn’t paid by the deadline. What a deal!

“In a sense, customers do not actually need Walmart to offer a layaway program; they can simply start saving the money themselves. Layaway essentially offers Walmart an interest-free loan. Put another way, while credit cards allow consumers to enjoy their goods today and pay later, layaway reverses this transaction by allowing Walmart to enjoy the customer’s money today and pay back the customer in the form of goods later. Layaway thus represents a shift in credit away from consumers and toward corporations. So much for consumer protection!”

But will supplies last? Usually they do. What if the availability of a “hot new item” is limited? That’s when the availability of credit can be extremely valuable. It’s up to the consumer as to whether the cost of buying the product on credit is worthwhile, but immediate possession is certainly of value. Ah, but statists like Warren want to intrude, er… help, so Congress passed the Dodd-Frank Act. It established the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s (CFPB) to regulate the financial industry, and in so doing, the agency has succeeded in limiting the availability of many forms of credit, especially to potential borrowers who pose high risks. The increasing availability of layaway programs is an attempt to fill the breach, though their similarity to real credit is slight. Or perhaps “slight of hand” is a better description.

Can White Elephants Cheer the Public?

12 Sunday Oct 2014

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Has the American public’s sense of progress been diminished by the lack of “big projects” in recent memory? No moon shots or space elevators, no Hoover dams, no ubiquitous high-speed rail? Would these types of massive projects bring with them a new sense of optimism? Virginia Postrel doubts it, quite aside from whether such efforts would be successful in technical or economic terms. In her critique of business icon Peter Theil and science fiction writer Neal Stephenson on this point, Postrel says they confuse satisfaction from an improved quality of life in the mid-twentieth century with optimism about the future impact of iconic public investments in infrastructure and technology:

“People believed the future would be better than the present because they believed the present was better than the past. They constantly heard stories — not speculative, futuristic stories but news stories, fashion stories, real-estate stories, medical stories — that reinforced this belief. They remembered epidemics and rejoiced in vaccines and wonder drugs. They looked back on crowded urban walk-ups and appreciated neat suburban homes. They recalled ironing on sweaty summer days and celebrated air conditioning and wash-and-wear fabrics. They marveled at tiny transistor radios and dreamed of going on airplane trips.”

Postrel also points out that technology has always provoked some anxiety about the future, just as it does today. In addition, Theil and Stephenson under-appreciate noteworthy projects of the not so distant past, both public and private. That’s not to say that all of those projects were well-executed (the Big Dig?) or economically successful.

Postrel’s argument suggests that the current sense of malaise has more to do with weak economic growth and its causes. She emphasizes an excessive application of the precautionary principle. The growth of the regulatory state and arbitrary, czarist rule-making is an outgrowth of this phenomenon. As I said earlier this week, “Life’s Bleak When Your Goal Is Compliance.” Poor results of most public initiatives (e.g., public education, student loans, the war on poverty) do nothing to inspire confidence, with an increasing proportion of the population dependent on public support. Meanwhile, rewards seem to flow to well-connected cronies, a result that seems assured when resources are allocated to big public projects. There is a growing sense that not much can be accomplished without privilege or luck.

Above all, let’s hope we never take to evaluating massive projects based on their potential to foster a renewed sense of public optimism.

A Dumb Tax Code Tests Loyalty

07 Thursday Aug 2014

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The complex and punitive tax treatment of U.S. corporate income creates incentives for firms to seek relief through various maneuvers. According to the TaxProf Blog, quoting KPMG, the U.S. corporate tax rate is the highest among industrialized countries and the second highest in the world. U.S. corporations are taxed on profits earned overseas, which is disadvantageous relative to so-called “territorial” tax systems. Corporate income is taxed twice, as well: once as corporate income and again when income is paid to shareholders, though often at a favorable “qualified dividend” rate (and double taxation of dividends is not uncommon internationally). Of course, there are myriad provisions in the tax code that reduce the severity of the corporate tax bite by providing deductions (some of which are mentioned at the first link). But the code is quite complex and it creates unnecessary compliance costs; on balance, it provides compelling reasons for corporations to attempt to shift income overseas to obtain more favorable treatment. A growing number of firms have engaged in so-called corporate “tax inversions,” which involve shifting ownership to an overseas corporate parent. This is said to represent a threat to the U.S. tax base, and it has recently captured the attention of the media.

What should be done about this trend? The first link above, from the TaxProf, discusses two options: “… a general reform of the U.S. corporate tax and specific provisions to deal with tax-motivated international mergers.” The first option would involve a vastly simpler tax code, with fewer and less generous deductions and lower tax rates. That change would be desirable if only to reduce compliance costs, but it could also be used to make the U.S. tax code more competitive internationally. A strong case can be made for eliminating the corporate income tax entirely, based on the likely favorable impact on employment, wages and international competitiveness that it would engender.

The second option mentioned in connection with reducing tax inversions involves more targeted measures which do nothing to reduce the complexity of the tax code. Apparently, the Treasury is investigating a “long list” of alternative administrative actions to discourage inversions. Again, from the TaxProf:

The President’s FY2015 budget proposes to treat all mergers as U.S. firms if the U.S. firm’s shareholders have 50% or more ownership of the combined firm or maintains management and control in the United States. Similar legislation has also been introduced in the 113th Congress.

Public attention may have discouraged Walgreens from pursuing an inversion, and the Obama administration is clearly “jawboning” in an effort to stop the activity.

Finally, Jonathan Alter wants U.S. corporations to take “loyalty oaths” to prevent them from seeking out inversion opportunities. This proposal is certainly “creepy,” as noted by J.D. Tuccille in Reason Magazine. Loyalty oaths? Seriously? From Tuccille:

… this whole “economic patriotism” crusade starts at a bad place and spirals down into a cesspool. So, if that’s the model you work from…

To make it clear where this all goes, the National Recovery Administration once boasted, “The Fascist Principles are very similar to those we have been evolving here in America.” Its head, Hugh Johnson, noted about the adoption or rejection of the blue eagle symbol and its code, “Those who are not with us are against us.”

Where else might this go? Will “buy American” form the basis of a loyalty oath of some kind? What tax consequences might await violators? What other forms of cooperation with intrusive authorities might be enforced in this way? David Harsanyi has some interesting thoughts on the question of “properly channeled nationalism”:

It’s worth remembering that when Alter proposes that Obama discipline companies that have done nothing illegal or illegitimate, he’s simply taking Obama’s “economic patriotism” to its next logical step. He wants the administration to threaten the close “easy access to American markets” companies enjoy. And really, haven’t we all suffered enough with all this unhindered access to affordable goods, exotic merchandise and cool gadgets? Samsung. Honda. Toyota. Nestle. GlaxoSmithKline. Do you believe shoppers concern themselves with the fact that Food Lion is subsidiary of a Belgium company? I suspect that most Americans, in their everyday lives, don’t care where their favorite companies are situated, because intuitively they understand the benefits of trade.

Too many times already, I have heard statements implying disloyalty after daring to criticize the president’s initiatives. That’s a very bad sign. The U.S. achieved greatness in large part because it offered basic freedoms in personal, social and economic life. Decisions about what and with whom to do business, though not completely free of government interference, must be a person’s own, even in voluntary association with others (as in the corporate form). People should be free to transfer their assets abroad or to sell their assets to anyone, regardless of domicile. If this is a desirable place to live and do business, such freedoms should never be a source of concern. In fact, with a tax code that is simpler and more competitive, it could never be anything but a source of strength.